<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-jewellery-bangles-shopping.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-jewellery-bangles-shopping.png"/></p>
<p>周二，黄金价格小幅变动，早前的涨幅有所回落，投资者在不确定的美伊外交和央行决策密集的一周与强势美元和坚挺油价的压力之间权衡利弊。</p>
<p>尽管地缘政治风险持续为黄金提供了一定支持，但对利率前景的谨慎态度抵消了这一影响。</p>
<p>现货黄金价格基本持平，报每盎司 4,679.06 美元，而美国黄金期货价格小幅变动，报 4,693.20 美元。</p>
<p>市场情绪表明，投资者在华盛顿、德黑兰和全球主要央行发出更明确信号之前，不愿意建立大额头寸。</p>
<h2>美元和油价抑制需求</h2>
<p>黄金面临的直接压力来自货币和能源市场。</p>
<p>由于对美伊谈判迅速突破的希望减弱，美元走强，交易员们变得更加谨慎，而油价因担忧中东紧张局势可能使供应路线承压而大幅上涨。</p>
<p>这种组合对黄金来说是一个挑战。</p>
<p>近期，油价上涨和美元走强加重了黄金的压力，强化了对利率将长期维持高位的看法，并降低了非收益资产的吸引力。</p>
<p>黄金在最近的交易中已经跌至超过一周的低点，约为 4,697 美元，突显出随着收益率和美元走强，黄金的反弹失去了动能。</p>
<p>本月早些时候追逐金属的投资者现在正在重新评估，单靠地缘政治焦虑是否足以推动黄金再次上涨。</p>
<p>目前，答案似乎是否定的。</p>
<p>只要油价保持高位，美元保持强势，即使对安全资产的需求依然存在，黄金也可能难以显著突破。</p>
<h2>央行成为焦点</h2>
<p>另一个主要制约因素是货币政策。</p>
<p>投资者正在等待一系列利率决策和官方评论，这些可能有助于确定借贷成本是否会比市场预期的更长时间保持限制性。</p>
<p>市场普遍预计美联储将维持利率不变，但其指导语气将至关重要。</p>
<p>路透社的一项调查发现，美联储可能需要至少六个月才能降息，因为战争驱动的能源价格推动了通胀，强化了政策放松可能被推迟的观点。</p>
<p>这对黄金很重要，因为更高的利率和更强的债券收益率增加了持有黄金的机会成本。</p>
<p>投资者还关注其他主要央行，包括日本银行、欧洲中央银行和英格兰银行。</p>
<p>随着油价重新成为通胀辩论的中心，投资者希望了解政策制定者是否将近期的能源冲击视为暂时噪音，还是对价格稳定的更持久威胁。</p>
<h2>伊朗谈判仍是关键地缘政治驱动因素</h2>
<p>华盛顿与德黑兰之间的发展继续影响更广泛的市场情绪。</p>
<p>据报道，特朗普总统对伊朗最新的核提案感到不满，这让人对快速达成外交解决的机会产生了怀疑。</p>
<p>这使得交易员们关注该地区进一步动荡的风险，尤其是在霍尔木兹海峡，航运不确定性仍然是油市的主要问题。</p>
<p>对于黄金而言，理论上的地缘政治背景是支持性的，但在实践中却复杂。</p>
<p>当冲突加剧时，避险需求往往会上升，但同样的紧张局势也可能推高油价，提高通胀预期，并加强维持高利率的理由。</p>
<p>这就是为什么黄金保持在区间内，而不是在任何方向上明显突破。</p>
<p>结果是市场在恐惧与克制之间徘徊：足够的焦虑使黄金得到支撑，但不足以压倒强势美元、更高收益率和高昂能源的共同逆风。</p>
<p>本文的标题是《为什么黄金价格在全球不确定性上升的情况下仍未飙升？》，最初发布在 Invezz 上。</p>

GOLD

纽蒙特矿业

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

<p>黄金价格在周二保持稳定，现货黄金报每盎司 4,679.06 美元，美国黄金期货报 4,693.20 美元。由于美国与伊朗的外交关系不确定以及即将到来的中央银行决策，投资者保持谨慎，而强势美元和上涨的油价抑制了需求。预计美联储将维持利率不变，这影响了黄金作为无收益资产的吸引力。地缘政治紧张局势为黄金提供了一定支持，但强势美元和高油价的组合阻止了价格的显著上涨</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-jewellery-bangles-shopping.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-jewellery-bangles-shopping.png"/></p>
<p>Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday after giving up earlier gains, as investors weighed uncertain US-Iran diplomacy and a heavy week of central bank decisions against the pressure of a stronger dollar and firmer oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，黄金价格小幅变动，早前的涨幅有所回落，投资者在不确定的美伊外交和央行决策密集的一周与强势美元和坚挺油价的压力之间权衡利弊。</p>
</div><p>Bullion found some support from persistent geopolitical risk, but that was offset by caution over the outlook for interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管地缘政治风险持续为黄金提供了一定支持，但对利率前景的谨慎态度抵消了这一影响。</p>
</div><p>Spot gold was broadly steady at $4,679.06 an ounce, while US gold futures were little changed at $4,693.20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货黄金价格基本持平，报每盎司 4,679.06 美元，而美国黄金期货价格小幅变动，报 4,693.20 美元。</p>
</div><p>The market tone suggested investors were reluctant to build large positions before clearer signals emerged from Washington, Tehran and the world’s major central banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场情绪表明，投资者在华盛顿、德黑兰和全球主要央行发出更明确信号之前，不愿意建立大额头寸。</p>
</div><h2>US dollar and oil curb demand</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元和油价抑制需求</h2>
</div><p>The immediate drag on gold came from currency and energy markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金面临的直接压力来自货币和能源市场。</p>
</div><p>The dollar strengthened as traders turned defensive after hopes for a quick breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations faded, while oil prices rose sharply on concern that tensions in the Middle East could keep supply routes under strain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于对美伊谈判迅速突破的希望减弱，美元走强，交易员们变得更加谨慎，而油价因担忧中东紧张局势可能使供应路线承压而大幅上涨。</p>
</div><p>That combination has proved difficult for bullion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种组合对黄金来说是一个挑战。</p>
</div><p>Rising oil prices and a firmer dollar have recently weighed on gold by reinforcing a higher-for-longer view on interest rates and reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近期，油价上涨和美元走强加重了黄金的压力，强化了对利率将长期维持高位的看法，并降低了非收益资产的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Gold had already fallen to an over one-week low around $4,697 in recent sessions, highlighting how the rally has lost momentum as yields and the dollar strengthened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金在最近的交易中已经跌至超过一周的低点，约为 4,697 美元，突显出随着收益率和美元走强，黄金的反弹失去了动能。</p>
</div><p>Investors who had chased the metal higher earlier in the month are now reassessing whether geopolitical anxiety alone is enough to drive a fresh leg up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些时候追逐金属的投资者现在正在重新评估，单靠地缘政治焦虑是否足以推动黄金再次上涨。</p>
</div><p>For now, the answer appears to be no.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，答案似乎是否定的。</p>
</div><p>So long as oil remains elevated and the dollar stays firm, gold may struggle to break convincingly higher even when demand for safety remains intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要油价保持高位，美元保持强势，即使对安全资产的需求依然存在，黄金也可能难以显著突破。</p>
</div><h2>Central banks take centre stage</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>央行成为焦点</h2>
</div><p>The other major restraint is monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个主要制约因素是货币政策。</p>
</div><p>Investors are awaiting a series of interest-rate decisions and official comments that could help define whether borrowing costs stay restrictive for longer than markets had expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者正在等待一系列利率决策和官方评论，这些可能有助于确定借贷成本是否会比市场预期的更长时间保持限制性。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but the tone of its guidance will matter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场普遍预计美联储将维持利率不变，但其指导语气将至关重要。</p>
</div><p>A Reuters poll found that the Fed may have to wait at least six months before cutting rates as war-driven energy prices feed inflation, reinforcing the view that policy easing could be pushed further out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社的一项调查发现，美联储可能需要至少六个月才能降息，因为战争驱动的能源价格推动了通胀，强化了政策放松可能被推迟的观点。</p>
</div><p>That matters for gold because higher rates and firmer bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对黄金很重要，因为更高的利率和更强的债券收益率增加了持有黄金的机会成本。</p>
</div><p>Attention is also on other major central banks, including the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者还关注其他主要央行，包括日本银行、欧洲中央银行和英格兰银行。</p>
</div><p>With oil back at the centre of the inflation debate, investors will want to know whether policymakers see the recent energy shock as temporary noise or a more durable threat to price stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着油价重新成为通胀辩论的中心，投资者希望了解政策制定者是否将近期的能源冲击视为暂时噪音，还是对价格稳定的更持久威胁。</p>
</div><h2>Iran talks remain the key geopolitical driver</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伊朗谈判仍是关键地缘政治驱动因素</h2>
</div><p>Developments between Washington and Tehran continue to shape the broader market mood.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿与德黑兰之间的发展继续影响更广泛的市场情绪。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump was reported to be dissatisfied with Iran’s latest nuclear proposal, raising doubts about the chances of a quick diplomatic resolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据报道，特朗普总统对伊朗最新的核提案感到不满，这让人对快速达成外交解决的机会产生了怀疑。</p>
</div><p>That has kept traders focused on the risk of further disruption across the region, especially around Hormuz, where shipping uncertainty remains a major issue for oil markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得交易员们关注该地区进一步动荡的风险，尤其是在霍尔木兹海峡，航运不确定性仍然是油市的主要问题。</p>
</div><p>For gold, the geopolitical backdrop is supportive in theory but complicated in practice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于黄金而言，理论上的地缘政治背景是支持性的，但在实践中却复杂。</p>
</div><p>Safe-haven demand tends to rise when conflict intensifies, yet the same tensions can also push oil higher, lift inflation expectations and strengthen the case for keeping rates elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当冲突加剧时，避险需求往往会上升，但同样的紧张局势也可能推高油价，提高通胀预期，并加强维持高利率的理由。</p>
</div><p>That is why bullion has stayed range-bound rather than breaking decisively in either direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么黄金保持在区间内，而不是在任何方向上明显突破。</p>
</div><p>The result is a market caught between fear and restraint: enough anxiety to keep gold supported, but not enough to overpower the combined headwinds of a stronger dollar, higher yields and costly energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果是市场在恐惧与克制之间徘徊：足够的焦虑使黄金得到支撑，但不足以压倒强势美元、更高收益率和高昂能源的共同逆风。</p>
</div><p>The post Why are gold prices failing to surge despite rising global uncertainty? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文的标题是《为什么黄金价格在全球不确定性上升的情况下仍未飙升？》，最初发布在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Why are gold prices failing to surge despite rising global uncertainty?

invezz

Gold.com

中金黄金

Kinross Gold

易方达黄金矿-U

初级黄金矿股 ETF

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

2 倍做多黄金 ETF - ProShares

华夏中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF

黄金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

2 倍做多小型金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

黄金 MiniShares 信托 - SPDR

易方达黄金ETF

易方达黄金矿-R

黄金矿 ETF - Sprott

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

2 倍做多金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

华夏黄金ETF

黄金 ETF - iShares

黄金和贵金属矿商 ETF - U.S. Global

3 倍做多黄金矿业 ETN - MicroSectors

黄金 ETF - SPDR

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

为什么在全球不确定性上升的情况下，金价却未能大幅上涨？