<p>东京，4 月 28 日（路透社）- 日本银行周二维持利率不变，但其九名董事会成员中有三人提议提高借贷成本，表明政策制定者对中东冲突带来的通胀压力的担忧。</p>
<p>中央银行还大幅上调了价格预测，并强调对通胀超标风险的警惕，暗示未来几个月加息的可能性很大。</p>
<p>&#34;虽然日本银行维持利率不变，但三票反对突显了货币官员面临的紧张局势，&#34;汇丰银行香港首席亚洲经济学家 Fred Neumann 表示，并指出能源冲击正在加剧通胀并抑制增长。</p>
<p>&#34;鉴于日本的通胀预期已处于高位，并因能源危机进一步上升，日本银行将需要在适当的时候提高利率，以防止价格压力进一步加大，&#34;他说。</p>
<p>正如广泛预期的那样，日本银行在周二结束的为期两天的会议上将短期政策利率维持在 0.75% 不变。</p>
<p>然而，出乎意料的是，三名银行董事会成员表示反对，并呼吁将利率提高至 1.0%。田村直树和中川顺子加入了高田肇的行列，后者在三月份单独提议加息未果。</p>
<p>这是自 2016 年 1 月以来董事会反对票数最多的一次，当时日本银行以 5-4 的微弱票数通过了负利率政策。</p>
<p>&#34;鉴于潜在通胀接近 2%，而实际利率处于显著低位，日本银行将在经济、价格和金融状况的发展下继续提高政策利率，&#34;日本银行在季度报告中表示。</p>
<p>加息的速度和时机将密切关注中东冲突的后果，报告称。</p>
<p>新的指导方针与之前的指导方针相比，后者明确指出经济改善是进一步加息的前提条件之一。</p>
<p>政策公告后，日元上涨，日经股票指数下跌，因为投资者预计近期加息的可能性。</p>
<p>&#34;我预计下一次加息最早将在 6 月到来。随着春季工资谈判可能带来与去年相当的工资增长，工资 - 价格循环指向未来更高的通胀，&#34;大和研究所经济学家中村香奈子表示。&#34;尽管中东的不确定性仍然很高，但忽视上行价格压力可能会加剧日元疲软等副作用。&#34;</p>
<p>市场关注日本银行行长上田和夫在 0630 GMT 的新闻发布会上的评论，以获取伊朗战争如何影响其加息路径的线索。</p>
<p>与伊朗的美以战争使日本银行逐步提高仍然较低的利率以达到市场认为的经济中性水平（约 1.5%）的努力变得复杂。</p>
<p>日本银行是本周众多被认为维持政策不变的中央银行中的第一个，包括美国联邦储备委员会，因为中东战争使经济前景变得复杂。</p>
<p>通胀超标风险</p>
<p>在季度展望报告中，中央银行大幅上调了截至 2027 年 3 月和 2028 年 3 月的核心通胀预测，同时下调了这两年的增长预测。</p>
<p>日本银行维持其预测，即潜在通胀将在 2026 财年下半年至 2027 年之间趋于与其价格目标一致的水平。</p>
<p>但它详细说明了中东战争对增长和价格前景的风险，并补充说其基线情景是基于假设冲突不会导致巨大的供应链中断或油价的长期飙升。</p>
<p>报告称，随着企业已经渴望将上涨的成本转嫁，来自高油价的价格压力可能比以往更广泛地传播到各种商品和服务中。</p>
<p>&#34;日本银行必须特别关注通胀急剧上升的风险，从而对经济产生不利影响，&#34;报告称。</p>
<p>日本对石油进口的高度依赖使其经济容易受到油价飙升和霍尔木兹海峡有效关闭带来的供应中断的影响。</p>
<p>但随着企业愈发渴望将包括日元持续疲软在内的更高成本转嫁，忽视战争驱动的价格压力的风险增加，导致通胀在过去四年中保持在日本银行 2% 的目标之上。</p>
<p>日本银行加息的缓慢步伐对日元造成了压力，使其保持在 160 日元兑美元的水平，这一水平曾触发过货币干预。</p>
<p>财政部长片山纱月周二表示，政府已准备好采取行动应对外汇波动，重申东京在市场上干预以应对日元过度贬值的决心。</p>
<p>路透社调查的近三分之二的经济学家预计，日本银行将在 6 月底前将基准利率提高至 1.0%。</p>
<p>（报道：木原礼香和山崎真纪；东京的杉山聪和小宫侃太郎以及新加坡的安库尔·班纳吉的补充报道；编辑：山姆·霍尔姆斯）</p>

南方两倍看多日经

1593

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

1492

华安日经225ETF

南方日经225

1346

南方两倍看空日经

<p>日本银行（BOJ）维持利率在 0.75% 不变，但有三位董事会成员提议将利率提高至 1.0%，这表明对中东冲突引发的通胀担忧。日本银行上调了通胀预测，并警告可能出现通胀超标的风险。经济学家预计，随着通胀预期和工资上涨，最早将在 6 月加息。公告发布后，日元上涨，而日经指数下跌。日本银行的谨慎态度受到持续的地缘政治紧张局势及其对经济状况影响的影响</p>

<p>TOKYO, April 28 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Tuesday but three of its nine-member board proposed hiking borrowing costs, signalling policymakers' concerns over inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>东京，4 月 28 日（路透社）- 日本银行周二维持利率不变，但其九名董事会成员中有三人提议提高借贷成本，表明政策制定者对中东冲突带来的通胀压力的担忧。</p>
</div><p>The central bank also sharply revised up its price forecasts and stressed vigilance to the risk of an inflation overshoot, signalling a strong chance of a rate hike in coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央银行还大幅上调了价格预测，并强调对通胀超标风险的警惕，暗示未来几个月加息的可能性很大。</p>
</div><p>&#34;While the BOJ kept rates on hold, the three dissenting votes highlight the tensions monetary officials face,&#34; Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, said, noting energy shocks were fanning inflation and curtailing growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;虽然日本银行维持利率不变，但三票反对突显了货币官员面临的紧张局势，&#34;汇丰银行香港首席亚洲经济学家 Fred Neumann 表示，并指出能源冲击正在加剧通胀并抑制增长。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Given elevated inflation expectations in Japan, which have increased further due to the energy crisis, the BOJ will need to raise interest rates in due course to prevent price pressures from building further,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;鉴于日本的通胀预期已处于高位，并因能源危机进一步上升，日本银行将需要在适当的时候提高利率，以防止价格压力进一步加大，&#34;他说。</p>
</div><p>As widely expected, the BOJ left unchanged its short-term policy rate at 0.75% in a two-day meeting that ended on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如广泛预期的那样，日本银行在周二结束的为期两天的会议上将短期政策利率维持在 0.75% 不变。</p>
</div><p>In a surprise move, however, three bank board members dissented and instead called for a rate hike to 1.0%. Naoki Tamura and Junko Nakagawa joined Hajime Takata, who unsuccessfully made a solo proposal to hike in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，出乎意料的是，三名银行董事会成员表示反对，并呼吁将利率提高至 1.0%。田村直树和中川顺子加入了高田肇的行列，后者在三月份单独提议加息未果。</p>
</div><p>It was the biggest number of dissents the board has seen since January 2016, when the BOJ adopted negative interest rates by a narrow 5-4 vote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是自 2016 年 1 月以来董事会反对票数最多的一次，当时日本银行以 5-4 的微弱票数通过了负利率政策。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Given that underlying inflation has been approaching 2% and real interest rates are at significantly low levels, the BOJ will continue to raise its policy rate in response to developments in the economy, prices and financial conditions,&#34; the BOJ said in a quarterly report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;鉴于潜在通胀接近 2%，而实际利率处于显著低位，日本银行将在经济、价格和金融状况的发展下继续提高政策利率，&#34;日本银行在季度报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>The pace and timing of rate hikes will be determined with a close eye on the fallout from the Middle East conflict, it said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加息的速度和时机将密切关注中东冲突的后果，报告称。</p>
</div><p>The new guidance compared with the previous one that spelled out improvements in the economy as among prerequisites for further rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新的指导方针与之前的指导方针相比，后者明确指出经济改善是进一步加息的前提条件之一。</p>
</div><p>The yen rose and the Nikkei stock average fell after the policy announcement, as investors priced in the chance of a near-term rate hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策公告后，日元上涨，日经股票指数下跌，因为投资者预计近期加息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I expect the next rate hike to come as early as June. With spring wage talks likely to deliver pay rises on par with last year, the wage-price cycle points to higher inflation ahead,&#34; said Kanako Nakamura, economist at Daiwa Institute of Research. &#34;While uncertainty over the Middle East remains high, ignoring upward price pressures could exacerbate side effects such as yen weakness.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我预计下一次加息最早将在 6 月到来。随着春季工资谈判可能带来与去年相当的工资增长，工资 - 价格循环指向未来更高的通胀，&#34;大和研究所经济学家中村香奈子表示。&#34;尽管中东的不确定性仍然很高，但忽视上行价格压力可能会加剧日元疲软等副作用。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Markets are focusing on comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda at a press conference at 0630 GMT for clues on how the protracted Iran war affects its rate-hike path.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场关注日本银行行长上田和夫在 0630 GMT 的新闻发布会上的评论，以获取伊朗战争如何影响其加息路径的线索。</p>
</div><p>The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has complicated the BOJ's efforts to raise still-low interest rates gradually to levels deemed neutral to the economy, seen by markets at around 1.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与伊朗的美以战争使日本银行逐步提高仍然较低的利率以达到市场认为的经济中性水平（约 1.5%）的努力变得复杂。</p>
</div><p>The BOJ is the first among a flurry of central banks seen keeping policy steady this week, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, as the Middle East war muddles the economic outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本银行是本周众多被认为维持政策不变的中央银行中的第一个，包括美国联邦储备委员会，因为中东战争使经济前景变得复杂。</p>
</div><p>INFLATION OVERSHOOT RISK</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀超标风险</p>
</div><p>In a quarterly outlook report, the central bank sharply revised up its core inflation forecasts for the fiscal years ending March 2027 and March 2028, while slashing its growth forecasts for both years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在季度展望报告中，中央银行大幅上调了截至 2027 年 3 月和 2028 年 3 月的核心通胀预测，同时下调了这两年的增长预测。</p>
</div><p>The BOJ maintained its projection that underlying inflation will converge to levels consistent with its price target sometime between the latter half of fiscal 2026 through 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本银行维持其预测，即潜在通胀将在 2026 财年下半年至 2027 年之间趋于与其价格目标一致的水平。</p>
</div><p>But it elaborated on risks to the growth and price outlook from the Middle East war, adding that its baseline scenario was based on the assumption the conflict will not lead to huge supply chain disruptions or a prolonged spike in oil costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但它详细说明了中东战争对增长和价格前景的风险，并补充说其基线情景是基于假设冲突不会导致巨大的供应链中断或油价的长期飙升。</p>
</div><p>With companies already keen to pass on rising costs, price pressures from high oil prices could spread to various goods and services more than they have in the past, the report said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告称，随着企业已经渴望将上涨的成本转嫁，来自高油价的价格压力可能比以往更广泛地传播到各种商品和服务中。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The BOJ must pay particularly strong attention to the risk of inflation deviating sharply upward and thereby exerting an adverse impact on the economy,&#34; it said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;日本银行必须特别关注通胀急剧上升的风险，从而对经济产生不利影响，&#34;报告称。</p>
</div><p>Japan's heavy reliance on oil imports makes its economy vulnerable to surging oil prices and supply disruptions from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本对石油进口的高度依赖使其经济容易受到油价飙升和霍尔木兹海峡有效关闭带来的供应中断的影响。</p>
</div><p>But the risks of looking through war-driven price pressures have increased as firms become keener to pass on higher costs including from a stubbornly weak yen, keeping inflation above the BOJ's 2% target for four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着企业愈发渴望将包括日元持续疲软在内的更高成本转嫁，忽视战争驱动的价格压力的风险增加，导致通胀在过去四年中保持在日本银行 2% 的目标之上。</p>
</div><p>The slow pace of BOJ rate hikes has weighed on the yen and kept it near the 160-per-dollar level that had triggered currency intervention in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本银行加息的缓慢步伐对日元造成了压力，使其保持在 160 日元兑美元的水平，这一水平曾触发过货币干预。</p>
</div><p>Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday the government was ready to take action against foreign exchange volatility, reiterating Tokyo's resolve to intervene in the market to counter excessive yen falls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财政部长片山纱月周二表示，政府已准备好采取行动应对外汇波动，重申东京在市场上干预以应对日元过度贬值的决心。</p>
</div><p>Nearly two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise its benchmark rate to 1.0% by end-June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社调查的近三分之二的经济学家预计，日本银行将在 6 月底前将基准利率提高至 1.0%。</p>
</div><p>(Reporting by Leika Kihara and Makiko Yamazaki; additional reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama and Kantaro Komiya in Tokyo and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Sam Holmes)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（报道：木原礼香和山崎真纪；东京的杉山聪和小宫侃太郎以及新加坡的安库尔·班纳吉的补充报道；编辑：山姆·霍尔姆斯）</p>
</div>

BOJ keeps rates steady but hawkish split points to June hike

- 日本银行维持利率不变，但三名董事会成员提议加息至 1.0%。  
- 报告显示中东冲突加剧通胀风险，影响经济增长预期。  
- 预计日本银行将在 6 月底前提高基准利率，以应对通胀上升。

日本央行维持利率不变，但鹰派的分歧暗示可能在六月加息