<p>作者：Steve Goldstein</p>
<p>华尔街可能在担心错误的资产类别。</p>
<p>新兴的私募资本市场面临困境，受到向软件公司贷款的影响，而这些公司的业务正受到人工智能的威胁，这引起了市场和新闻媒体的关注。</p>
<p>但是，正如波士顿资产管理公司 Verdad 的 Greg Obershain 和 Daniel Rasmussen 所指出的，私募资本投资者所面临的任何困难都可能被投资于私募股权的投资者所面临的困难所掩盖。</p>
<p>毕竟，股权在资本结构中是次于债务的。</p>
<p>高收益债券和匹配的公共股权的回报因评级下调而变化。X 轴上的每个数字代表评级下调的级别。</p>
<p>他们引用了公共市场的数据来说明他们的观点。他们查看了过去 20 年中高收益债券与每个信用评级下调级别的匹配公共股权的回报。每个下调级别的股权回报总是低于债务回报。</p>
<p>“逻辑很明显：如果你听说银行将一处物业的抵押贷款从每美元 100 美分下调到 80 美分，你不会认为房屋的股权几乎被抹去了吗？” 他们说。</p>
<p>他们承认，在一些大赢家抵消损失的情况下，私募股权可能会表现得比私募信贷更好。</p>
<p>“假设在最坏的情况下，私募股权基金的 40% 的交易归零。如果剩下的 60% 的基金回报 2 倍，整体上基金仍然是盈利的。少数几个大赢家可以弥补大量损失。这对于私募信贷并不适用，因为赢家只会返回他们的收益，而输家则会减少回报，” 他们说。</p>
<p>管理投资于私募资本的业务发展公司的投资公司在 2026 年面临困境。Blue Owl Capital（OWL）将在周四报告，其股票今年已下跌 40%，而 Ares Management（ARES）的股票下跌了 30%。</p>
<p>标准普尔上市私募股权指数今年已损失 11%。</p>
<p>-Steve Goldstein</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>2026 年 4 月 28 日 0505ET</p>

全球上市私募股权 ETF - ProShares

全球私募股权基金 ETF - PowerShares

<p>投资者可能在错误地关注私人资本的困境，而忽视了私募股权中更大的风险。Verdad 的分析师指出，私募股权在债务之下，通常在信用评级下调期间的回报表现不如高收益债券。他们建议，尽管少数成功的投资可以抵消私募股权的损失，但私人信贷并不提供相同的复苏潜力。该领域的投资公司面临显著的股价下跌，标准普尔私募股权指数今年下跌了 11%</p>

<p>By Steve Goldstein</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Steve Goldstein</p>
</div><p>Wall Street may be fearing the wrong asset class.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街可能在担心错误的资产类别。</p>
</div><p>The struggles of the nascent private-capital market, weighed down by lending to software companies whose businesses are under threat from artificial intelligence, has captured the eye of the market and the news media.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新兴的私募资本市场面临困境，受到向软件公司贷款的影响，而这些公司的业务正受到人工智能的威胁，这引起了市场和新闻媒体的关注。</p>
</div><p>But, as Greg Obershain and Daniel Rasmussen of Boston asset management firm Verdad point out, whatever struggles private-capital investors will have are likely to be dwarfed by those investing in private equity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，正如波士顿资产管理公司 Verdad 的 Greg Obershain 和 Daniel Rasmussen 所指出的，私募资本投资者所面临的任何困难都可能被投资于私募股权的投资者所面临的困难所掩盖。</p>
</div><p>After all, the equity is junior in the capital stack to debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毕竟，股权在资本结构中是次于债务的。</p>
</div><p>Return on high-yield bonds and matched public equities from ratings downgrade. Each number on X axis represents the notches of downgrades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高收益债券和匹配的公共股权的回报因评级下调而变化。X 轴上的每个数字代表评级下调的级别。</p>
</div><p>They cite data from the public markets to illustrate their point. They looked at the return of high-yield bonds to the matched public equities for every notch deterioration in credit, over the last 20 years. The equity returns were always worse than the debt returns at each downgrade level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们引用了公共市场的数据来说明他们的观点。他们查看了过去 20 年中高收益债券与每个信用评级下调级别的匹配公共股权的回报。每个下调级别的股权回报总是低于债务回报。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The logic is obvious: if you heard that the bank was marking the mortgage on a property down from 100 cents on the dollar to 80 cents on the dollar, wouldn't you assume that the home equity was close to wiped out,&#34; they say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“逻辑很明显：如果你听说银行将一处物业的抵押贷款从每美元 100 美分下调到 80 美分，你不会认为房屋的股权几乎被抹去了吗？” 他们说。</p>
</div><p>They do concede that it's possible that private equity would do better than private credit, in a scenario where a few big winners offset the losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们承认，在一些大赢家抵消损失的情况下，私募股权可能会表现得比私募信贷更好。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Let's say, in a worst-case scenario, that 40% of a private equity fund's deals go to zero. If the remaining 60% of the fund returns 2x, the fund is still profitable overall. A small number of big winners can make up for a lot of losses. This is not the case for private credit, where the winners just return their yield, but the losers subtract from returns,&#34; they say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“假设在最坏的情况下，私募股权基金的 40% 的交易归零。如果剩下的 60% 的基金回报 2 倍，整体上基金仍然是盈利的。少数几个大赢家可以弥补大量损失。这对于私募信贷并不适用，因为赢家只会返回他们的收益，而输家则会减少回报，” 他们说。</p>
</div><p>Investment firms that manage business development companies which invest in private capital have struggled in 2026. Blue Owl Capital (OWL), which reports Thursday, has seen its stock tumble 40% this year, as Ares Management (ARES) shares have dropped 30%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理投资于私募资本的业务发展公司的投资公司在 2026 年面临困境。Blue Owl Capital（OWL）将在周四报告，其股票今年已下跌 40%，而 Ares Management（ARES）的股票下跌了 30%。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P listed private-equity index has lost 11% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔上市私募股权指数今年已损失 11%。</p>
</div><p>-Steve Goldstein</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Steve Goldstein</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>04-28-26 0505ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年 4 月 28 日 0505ET</p>
</div>

This chart shows why investors should fear for private equity more than private credit

Dow Jones

这张图表显示了投资者为何应该对私募股权比对私人信贷更感到担忧