<p>墨西哥比索在本周开始时表现出适度的疲软，这在最近的美元/比索价格走势中得到了反映，该货币对在过去两个交易日中上涨了超过 0.3%，利好美元。</p>
<p>目前，开始出现的 <strong>买入压力</strong> 主要是由市场对墨西哥和美国货币政策决策的预期驱动。这些事件引入了一定程度的不确定性，限制了比索持续走强的能力。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，如果美联储保持更为严格的语气或加强利率稳定的预期，这可能会继续支持美元，并进一步加大对美元/比索的 <strong>上行压力</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2><strong>中央银行动态</strong></h2>
<p>在墨西哥方面，值得强调的是，4 月上半月的整体通胀率为 4.53%，与 3 月的 4.55% 相比略有放缓，符合市场预期。</p>
<p>虽然这并不代表通胀的结构性下降，但确实表明了 <strong>价格动态的稳定</strong>，减少了维持高度限制性货币政策的紧迫性。</p>
<p>事实上，墨西哥银行已经开始了降息周期，在最新的决策中将利率从 7.00% 下调至 6.75%。在即将到来的 5 月 7 日会议上，基本情况指向暂停，尽管如果通胀继续稳定，向 6.50% 水平的进一步降息也不能排除。</p>
<p>这表明，中央银行可能会在未来几个月转向 <strong>更灵活的货币政策</strong>，而不是维持激进的立场。</p>
<p>在美国方面，情况有所不同。市场已经开始巩固对 <strong>长期利率稳定</strong> 的预期。</p>
<p>对于下一个决策（4 月 29 日），概率几乎完全指向美联储将利率维持在 3.75% 不变。更重要的是，市场预测表明，这一动态可能会持续到 2027 年，未来几个季度几乎没有变化的可能性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/CMEGROUP0428.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="560" height="479" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/CMEGROUP0428.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CMEGROUP</em></p>
<p>这进一步强化了美国货币政策将在更长时间内保持限制性的观点，限制了短期内美元持续贬值的空间。</p>
<p>此时，<strong>利率差异</strong> 再次成为关键因素。在 2025 年的大部分时间里，这一差异有利于墨西哥比索，因为它提供了更高的相对收益。然而，这一动态可能因两个主要原因开始发生变化：</p>
<p>首先，如果美联储保持坚定立场，美元可能会重新获得吸引力，受到未来几个月利率稳定预期的支持，这可能会重新激发对美元计价资产的兴趣。</p>
<p>其次，如果墨西哥银行继续降息，利差将缩小，可能会降低比索计价投资的吸引力。</p>
<p>在这两种情况下，结果可能是对比索计价资产的 <strong>需求下降</strong>，为美元的进一步走强和美元/比索的更一致的上行压力打开了大门。</p>
<h2><strong>美元/比索的技术展望</strong></h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-28_10-44-21.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1538" height="917" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-28_10-44-21.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>主要看跌通道承压：</strong> 尽管美元/比索在几个月内保持了看跌结构，但最近的价格回升使其接近通道的上边界。这是一个关键区域，因为持续的上涨可能会触发突破，挑战主导的看跌结构，并为短期内 <strong>转向看涨偏向</strong> 打开大门。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>相对强弱指数（RSI）：</strong> RSI 指标仍略低于 50 水平，但已开始显示出 <strong>持续的上升趋势</strong>，这表明短期内卖压正在减弱。如果这一趋势持续，指标可能会进入正区域，强化转向更强买入动能的理由。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>移动平均收敛发散指标（MACD）：</strong> MACD 支持这一观点，因为直方图显示出稳定的回升，目前接近零线。进入正区域将表明 <strong>市场动能的转变</strong>，支持短期移动平均线的更强看涨偏向。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>关键水平：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>18.07 – 关键阻力：</strong> 与 200 期移动平均线和 23.6% 斐波那契回撤水平对齐的近期高点区域。这代表了短期内最重要的阻力。持续突破可能确认结构性转变，并为未来几周的更明确的上升趋势打开大门。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>17.56 – 当前障碍：</strong> 与下降趋势线和 50 期移动平均线对齐的水平。这是一个关键区域，因为明确突破可能会使看跌结构失效，并在短期内增强 <strong>更一致的买入压力</strong>。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – 关键支撑：</strong> 2026 年低点区域。回落至该水平可能会恢复看跌动能，并确认下降通道的延续，保持更广泛的下行趋势在未来几天内不变。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>撰写者：Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – 市场分析师</strong></p>
<p><strong>关注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

墨西哥 3 倍做多 MSCI ETF - Direxion

<p>墨西哥比索对美元显示出疲软迹象，USD/MXN 货币对上涨超过 0.3%。这受到市场对墨西哥和美国货币政策预期的影响。墨西哥银行已开始降息周期，而美联储预计将维持利率稳定。利率差可能发生变化，可能会减少对以比索计价资产的需求。技术指标暗示 USD/MXN 可能转向看涨偏向，关键阻力位在 18.07，支撑位在 17.10</p>

<p>The Mexican peso has started the week showing moderate weakness, reflected in recent USD/MXN price action, where the pair has posted a gain of more than 0.3% over the last two sessions in favor of the US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥比索在本周开始时表现出适度的疲软，这在最近的美元/比索价格走势中得到了反映，该货币对在过去两个交易日中上涨了超过 0.3%，利好美元。</p>
</div><p>For now, the <strong>buying pressure</strong> that has begun to emerge is mainly driven by market expectations surrounding monetary policy decisions in both Mexico and the United States. These events have introduced a degree of uncertainty, limiting the peso’s ability to strengthen consistently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，开始出现的 <strong>买入压力</strong> 主要是由市场对墨西哥和美国货币政策决策的预期驱动。这些事件引入了一定程度的不确定性，限制了比索持续走强的能力。</p>
</div><p>In this context, if the Federal Reserve maintains a more restrictive tone or reinforces expectations of rate stability, this could continue to support the dollar and, in turn, intensify the <strong>upside pressure on USD/MXN</strong> in the coming sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，如果美联储保持更为严格的语气或加强利率稳定的预期，这可能会继续支持美元，并进一步加大对美元/比索的 <strong>上行压力</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2><strong>Central bank dynamics</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>中央银行动态</strong></h2>
</div><p>On Mexico’s side, it is important to highlight that headline inflation for the first half of April came in at 4.53% year-over-year, showing a slight slowdown compared to the 4.55% recorded in March and in line with market expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在墨西哥方面，值得强调的是，4 月上半月的整体通胀率为 4.53%，与 3 月的 4.55% 相比略有放缓，符合市场预期。</p>
</div><p>While this does not represent a structural decline in inflation, it does suggest a <strong>stabilization in price dynamics</strong>, reducing the urgency to maintain a highly restrictive monetary policy stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这并不代表通胀的结构性下降，但确实表明了 <strong>价格动态的稳定</strong>，减少了维持高度限制性货币政策的紧迫性。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Banco de México has already begun a rate-cutting cycle, lowering rates from 7.00% to 6.75% in its latest decision. For the upcoming May 7 meeting, the base case points to a pause, although another cut toward the 6.50% level cannot be ruled out if inflation continues to stabilize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，墨西哥银行已经开始了降息周期，在最新的决策中将利率从 7.00% 下调至 6.75%。在即将到来的 5 月 7 日会议上，基本情况指向暂停，尽管如果通胀继续稳定，向 6.50% 水平的进一步降息也不能排除。</p>
</div><p>This suggests that, rather than maintaining an aggressive stance, the central bank could shift toward a <strong>more flexible monetary policy</strong> in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明，中央银行可能会在未来几个月转向 <strong>更灵活的货币政策</strong>，而不是维持激进的立场。</p>
</div><p>On the US side, the picture is different. The market has started to consolidate expectations of <strong>prolonged rate stability</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国方面，情况有所不同。市场已经开始巩固对 <strong>长期利率稳定</strong> 的预期。</p>
</div><p>For the next decision (april 29), probabilities point almost entirely to the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%. More importantly, market projections suggest that this dynamic could extend well into 2027, with meaningful probabilities of no changes in the coming quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于下一个决策（4 月 29 日），概率几乎完全指向美联储将利率维持在 3.75% 不变。更重要的是，市场预测表明，这一动态可能会持续到 2027 年，未来几个季度几乎没有变化的可能性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/CMEGROUP0428.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/CMEGROUP0428.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CMEGROUP</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CMEGROUP</em></p>
</div><p>This reinforces the view that US monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer, limiting the scope for a sustained dollar depreciation in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这进一步强化了美国货币政策将在更长时间内保持限制性的观点，限制了短期内美元持续贬值的空间。</p>
</div><p>At this point, the <strong>interest rate differential</strong> once again becomes a key factor. For much of 2025, this differential favored the Mexican peso, as it offered a higher relative yield. However, this dynamic may begin to shift for two main reasons:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此时，<strong>利率差异</strong> 再次成为关键因素。在 2025 年的大部分时间里，这一差异有利于墨西哥比索，因为它提供了更高的相对收益。然而，这一动态可能因两个主要原因开始发生变化：</p>
</div><p>First, if the Federal Reserve maintains a firm stance, the dollar could regain attractiveness, supported by expectations of stable rates in the coming months, which could renew interest in USD-denominated assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，如果美联储保持坚定立场，美元可能会重新获得吸引力，受到未来几个月利率稳定预期的支持，这可能会重新激发对美元计价资产的兴趣。</p>
</div><p>Second, if Banco de México continues to cut rates, the differential will narrow, potentially reducing the attractiveness of peso-denominated investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，如果墨西哥银行继续降息，利差将缩小，可能会降低比索计价投资的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>In both cases, the outcome could be a <strong>decline in demand for peso-denominated assets</strong>, opening the door for further dollar strength and more consistent upside pressure in USD/MXN.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这两种情况下，结果可能是对比索计价资产的 <strong>需求下降</strong>，为美元的进一步走强和美元/比索的更一致的上行压力打开了大门。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Technical outlook for USD/MXN</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美元/比索的技术展望</strong></h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-28_10-44-21.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images-2/5882/USDMXN_2026-04-28_10-44-21.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：StoneX, Tradingview</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Major bearish channel under pressure:</strong> Although USD/MXN has maintained a bearish structure for several months, the recent price recovery has brought it closer to the upper boundary of the channel. This is a key area, as a sustained move higher could trigger a breakout that challenges the dominant bearish structure and opens the door to a <strong>shift toward a bullish bias</strong> in the short term.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>主要看跌通道承压：</strong> 尽管美元/比索在几个月内保持了看跌结构，但最近的价格回升使其接近通道的上边界。这是一个关键区域，因为持续的上涨可能会触发突破，挑战主导的看跌结构，并为短期内 <strong>转向看涨偏向</strong> 打开大门。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>RSI:</strong> The RSI indicator remains slightly below the 50 level but has begun to show a <strong>consistent upward slope</strong>, suggesting that selling pressure is losing momentum in the short term. If this trend continues, the indicator could move into positive territory, reinforcing the case for a shift toward stronger buying momentum.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>相对强弱指数（RSI）：</strong> RSI 指标仍略低于 50 水平，但已开始显示出 <strong>持续的上升趋势</strong>，这表明短期内卖压正在减弱。如果这一趋势持续，指标可能会进入正区域，强化转向更强买入动能的理由。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>MACD:</strong> The MACD supports this view, as the histogram has shown a steady recovery and is now close to the zero line. A move into positive territory would indicate a <strong>shift in market momentum</strong>, supporting a stronger bullish bias in short-term moving averages.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>移动平均收敛发散指标（MACD）：</strong> MACD 支持这一观点，因为直方图显示出稳定的回升，目前接近零线。进入正区域将表明 <strong>市场动能的转变</strong>，支持短期移动平均线的更强看涨偏向。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Key levels:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关键水平：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>18.07 – Key resistance:</strong> A zone of recent highs aligned with the 200-period moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This represents the most important resistance in the short term. A sustained break above it could confirm a structural shift and open the door to a more defined uptrend in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>18.07 – 关键阻力：</strong> 与 200 期移动平均线和 23.6% 斐波那契回撤水平对齐的近期高点区域。这代表了短期内最重要的阻力。持续突破可能确认结构性转变，并为未来几周的更明确的上升趋势打开大门。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>17.56 – Current barrier:</strong> A level aligned with the descending trendline and the 50-period moving average. This is a critical area, as a clear break could invalidate the bearish structure and reinforce <strong>more consistent buying pressure</strong> in the short term.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>17.56 – 当前障碍：</strong> 与下降趋势线和 50 期移动平均线对齐的水平。这是一个关键区域，因为明确突破可能会使看跌结构失效，并在短期内增强 <strong>更一致的买入压力</strong>。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – Key support:</strong> A zone of 2026 lows. A move back toward this level could restore bearish momentum and confirm the continuation of the descending channel, keeping the broader downtrend intact in the coming sessions.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>17.10 – 关键支撑：</strong> 2026 年低点区域。回落至该水平可能会恢复看跌动能，并确认下降通道的延续，保持更广泛的下行趋势在未来几天内不变。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>撰写者：Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – 市场分析师</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Follow him on:</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关注他：</strong> <strong>@julianpineda25</strong></p>
</div>

美元/墨西哥比索预测：在美联储决议前，墨西哥比索显示出疲软的迹象