<p>FOMC 普遍预计将联邦基金利率维持在 3.50-3.75% 不变，声明也不会有变化。考虑到中东局势的不确定性和鲍威尔的最后一次新闻发布会，这一事件预计不会引起太大关注。</p>
<p>自上次 3 月份 FOMC 会议以来，美国的数据表现异常强劲，显示出经济的内在韧性，尽管由于美伊战争和霍尔木兹海峡关闭，未来前景变得更加悲观。</p>
<p>美联储在 2025 年下半年放宽了货币政策，主要是由于劳动力市场疲软，担心其可能迅速恶化并最终导致经济显著放缓。在 2026 年，我们获得了越来越好的劳动力市场数据（不包括 2 月份的非农就业数据），持续的失业救济申请和每周 ADP 数据均显示出显著改善。</p>
<p>这导致市场对鸽派预期的重新定价，一旦美伊战争爆发，所有降息的押注都被抹去。市场现在预计美联储至少会保持观望，直到 2027 年 7 月。</p>
<p>在通胀方面，自 2021 年以来，美联储一直未能达到 2% 的目标，而对采取明确鹰派立场的犹豫使市场保持在鸽派反应状态。金融条件从未真正收紧到足以将通胀可持续地拉回目标。通胀继续接近 3%，预计美伊战争将进一步加大上行压力。</p>
<p>在增长方面，负面供应冲击预计将对经济活动产生压力，这使得美联储有理由在更长时间内保持观望，因为加息无法解决通胀的根本原因（霍尔木兹海峡关闭）。</p>
<p>美联储面临的问题是通胀预期的上升。在市场上，已经形成共识，认为美联储已放弃其 2% 的目标，现在基本上采用类似于澳大利亚储备银行的区间框架，将通胀保持在 2% 到 3% 之间。如果这意味着更多的劳动力市场痛苦，他们并没有足够的决心将其压回到 2%。</p>
<p>如果美伊僵局持续更长时间，油价保持在三位数水平，通胀预期可能会开始推动工资增长，如果金融条件保持宽松且经济保持韧性。一旦美伊战争解决，经济活动将强劲回升，可能会将成本推动型通胀转变为需求拉动型通胀，这可能会变成更糟糕的局面。</p>
<p>这使我们回到鲍威尔作为美联储主席的最后一次新闻发布会。预计他将保持中立，不提供任何前瞻性指导，以给予下一任美联储主席（凯文·沃什）灵活性。尽管鲍威尔无疑是一位出色的美联储主席，必须应对许多经济冲击，但他未能完成将通胀可持续地拉回目标的使命。</p>
<p>我希望他能继续留任到 2028 年，帮助他的同事们完成最后的任务。下一章将不再是关于沃什，而是关于 FOMC。董事会将在市场预期中比美联储主席更具影响力，而美联储观察技能将变得非常宝贵。</p>

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<p>FOMC 预计将维持联邦基金利率在 3.50-3.75% 不变，原因是美国与伊朗战争带来的不确定性。强劲的美国经济数据表明经济韧性，但通胀仍高于 2% 的目标，目前约为 3%。预计鲍威尔的最后一次新闻发布会将保持中立，不会为他的继任者凯文·沃什提供前瞻性指引。美联储不愿采取鹰派立场可能导致通胀预期上升，特别是在美国与伊朗冲突持续的情况下，这将影响经济活动和工资增长</p>

<p>The FOMC is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with no change to the statement. The base case is that this is going to be a non-event given the uncertainty around the Middle East situation and Powell's final press conference.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FOMC 普遍预计将联邦基金利率维持在 3.50-3.75% 不变，声明也不会有变化。考虑到中东局势的不确定性和鲍威尔的最后一次新闻发布会，这一事件预计不会引起太大关注。</p>
</div><p>The US data since the last FOMC meeting in March has been remarkably strong suggesting underlying economic resilience and even acceleration despite a more pessimistic future outlook caused by the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自上次 3 月份 FOMC 会议以来，美国的数据表现异常强劲，显示出经济的内在韧性，尽管由于美伊战争和霍尔木兹海峡关闭，未来前景变得更加悲观。</p>
</div><p>The Fed eased monetary policy in the second half of 2025 mainly due to a weakening labour market on worries that it could deteriorate faster and eventually cause a significant slowdown in the economy. In 2026, we've been getting better and better labour market data (excluding the February NFP), with continuing jobless claims and weekly ADP data showing a meaningful improvement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在 2025 年下半年放宽了货币政策，主要是由于劳动力市场疲软，担心其可能迅速恶化并最终导致经济显著放缓。在 2026 年，我们获得了越来越好的劳动力市场数据（不包括 2 月份的非农就业数据），持续的失业救济申请和每周 ADP 数据均显示出显著改善。</p>
</div><p>This has led to a repricing in dovish expectations and eventually all the rate cut bets were erased once the US-Iran war broke out. The market is now seeing the Fed remaining on hold at least until July 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这导致市场对鸽派预期的重新定价，一旦美伊战争爆发，所有降息的押注都被抹去。市场现在预计美联储至少会保持观望，直到 2027 年 7 月。</p>
</div><p>On the inflation side, the Fed has been missing its 2% target since 2021 and the reluctance to adopt a clear hawkish bias kept the market in a dovish reaction function. Financial conditions never really tightened enough to bring inflation sustainably back to target. Inflation continues to run closer to 3% and the US-Iran war is expected to add more upward pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在通胀方面，自 2021 年以来，美联储一直未能达到 2% 的目标，而对采取明确鹰派立场的犹豫使市场保持在鸽派反应状态。金融条件从未真正收紧到足以将通胀可持续地拉回目标。通胀继续接近 3%，预计美伊战争将进一步加大上行压力。</p>
</div><p>On the growth side, the negative supply shock is expected to weigh on economic activity which is giving the Fed a reason to stay on hold for longer as rate hikes wouldn't resolve the root cause of inflation (Strait of Hormuz closure).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在增长方面，负面供应冲击预计将对经济活动产生压力，这使得美联储有理由在更长时间内保持观望，因为加息无法解决通胀的根本原因（霍尔木兹海峡关闭）。</p>
</div><p>The problem for the Fed would be rising inflation expectations. In the markets, there's already a consensus view that the Fed has abandoned its 2% target and it's now basically uses a range framework like the RBA keeping inflation between 2 and 3%. They are not determined enough to squeeze it back to 2% if it means more labour market pain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储面临的问题是通胀预期的上升。在市场上，已经形成共识，认为美联储已放弃其 2% 的目标，现在基本上采用类似于澳大利亚储备银行的区间框架，将通胀保持在 2% 到 3% 之间。如果这意味着更多的劳动力市场痛苦，他们并没有足够的决心将其压回到 2%。</p>
</div><p>If the US-Iran stalemate were to extend for much longer keeping oil prices around triple digit levels, inflation expectations could start feeding into higher wage growth if financial conditions remain loose and the economy stays resilient. That could turn into an even uglier situation once the US-Iran war is resolved as economic activity would pick up strongly and substitute cost-push with demand-pull inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美伊僵局持续更长时间，油价保持在三位数水平，通胀预期可能会开始推动工资增长，如果金融条件保持宽松且经济保持韧性。一旦美伊战争解决，经济活动将强劲回升，可能会将成本推动型通胀转变为需求拉动型通胀，这可能会变成更糟糕的局面。</p>
</div><p>This brings us to Powell's final press conference as Fed Chair. The expectations are for him to remain neutral and not offering any forward guidance to give the next Fed Chair (Kevin Warsh) flexibility. Even though Powell has been undoubtedly a great Fed Chair who had to navigate lots of economic shocks, he has failed his mission of bringing inflation sustainably back to target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使我们回到鲍威尔作为美联储主席的最后一次新闻发布会。预计他将保持中立，不提供任何前瞻性指导，以给予下一任美联储主席（凯文·沃什）灵活性。尽管鲍威尔无疑是一位出色的美联储主席，必须应对许多经济冲击，但他未能完成将通胀可持续地拉回目标的使命。</p>
</div><p>I hope he remains on the board until 2028 and helps his colleagues with the last mile. The next chapter is not going to be about Warsh, it's going to be about the FOMC. The board will have more influence than the Fed Chair on markets expectations, and Fed Watching skills are going to be very valuable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我希望他能继续留任到 2028 年，帮助他的同事们完成最后的任务。下一章将不再是关于沃什，而是关于 FOMC。董事会将在市场预期中比美联储主席更具影响力，而美联储观察技能将变得非常宝贵。</p>
</div>

Fed preview: focus on Powell’s final press conference as no policy change is expected

- FOMC 预计将维持联邦基金利率在 3.50-3.75% 不变，考虑到中东局势的不确定性。  
- 美国近期经济数据强劲，尽管由于美伊战争和霍尔木兹海峡关闭前景黯淡。  
- 通胀持续接近 3%，美伊局势可能加大通胀预期，拉抬工资增长。

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美联储前瞻：由于预计不会有政策变化，重点关注鲍威尔的最后一次新闻发布会