<p>来自 ING 的一则说明，关于今天中国的数据。</p>
<p>中国 4 月份官方制造业 PMI 保持在 50.3，出口订单自 2024 年以来首次恢复增长，但非制造业 PMI 降至 49.4，创 40 个月新低，暴露出国内需求的疲软。</p>
<p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>中国 4 月份官方制造业 PMI 从 3 月份的 50.4 微降至 50.3，仍高于 ING 的预测和市场普遍预期，生产小幅上升至 51.5，就业略有改善，但仍处于收缩状态，录得 48.8</li>
<li>整体新订单从 51.6 降至 50.6，显示出国内需求疲软，而新出口订单子指数上升至 50.3，自 2024 年 4 月以来首次恢复扩张</li>
<li>进口子指数也在 2024 年 3 月以来首次回升至 50.1，表明贸易活动在本月保持稳健</li>
<li>原材料采购价格保持在 63.7，出厂价格为 55.1，均略低于 3 月份，但仍与 ING 预期的持续通胀趋势一致，预计 5 月份的通胀数据将确认这一点</li>
<li>私营的 RatingDog 制造业 PMI 表现更为强劲，从 50.8 上升至 52.2，ING 将这一超预期表现归因于该指数对出口导向型私营企业的更高权重</li>
<li>中国 4 月份非制造业 PMI 降至 49.4，匹配 1 月份的读数，创 40 个月新低，新订单子指数降至 44.3，为 2022 年以来的最低水平</li>
<li>非制造业出口订单连续第 16 个月处于收缩状态，录得 47.3，而销售价格成分连续第 31 个月保持在收缩区间，录得 48.1，表明成本压力尚未传递给服务行业的消费者</li>
<li>ING 将服务业的表现不佳归因于该行业相对于制造业的更大国内导向，疲软的消费需求日益影响非制造业的读数</li>
</ul>
<p>中国 4 月份的采购经理人指数数据呈现出一种熟悉但愈发明显的分化：制造业在外部需求复苏的支持下表现良好，而服务业则在疲软的国内消费压力下挣扎，几乎没有转机的迹象。</p>
<p>官方制造业 PMI 从 3 月份的 50.4 微降至 50.3，尽管这一变动微不足道，但仍高于 ING 的预测和市场普遍共识。在细节方面，生产小幅上升 0.1 个百分点至 51.5，就业略有改善，但仍处于收缩状态，录得 48.8。更显著的变化出现在订单方面。整体新订单从 51.6 降至 50.6，ING 分析师将这一下降归因于国内需求的持续疲软。外部方面的抵消来自于新出口订单子指数上升 1.2 个百分点至 50.3，自 2024 年 4 月以来首次回到扩张区间。进口子指数也在 2024 年 3 月以来首次回升至 50，表明尽管中东冲突及其对运输成本和供应链的影响存在高度不确定性，贸易流在本月仍保持稳定。</p>
<p>由 S&amp;P Global 编制的私营 RatingDog PMI 则讲述了同样的故事，升至 52.2，远高于 51.0 的共识。ING 指出，该指数对出口导向型私营制造商的更高代表性解释了其相对于官方调查的超预期表现，进一步强化了外部需求是中国当前复苏引擎的观点，而国内需求则是拖累因素。</p>
<p>在价格方面，原材料采购价格保持在 63.7，出厂价格为 55.1，均略低于 3 月份，但仍处于高位，与 ING 预期的通胀趋势一致，预计 5 月份 CPI 数据将在 5 月 11 日发布时得到确认。</p>
<p>服务业的表现则令人失望。非制造业 PMI 降至 49.4，匹配 1 月份的读数，创 40 个月新低，新订单子指数降至 44.3，为 2022 年以来的最低水平。非制造业出口订单连续第 16 个月处于收缩状态，销售价格成分连续第 31 个月保持在收缩区间，表明成本压力尚未传递给最终消费者。唯一的缓解是商业预期略微上升至 54.7。ING 的结论很直接：由于中国的服务业相对于制造业更具国内导向，随着疲软的消费需求日益主导局面，服务业开始表现不佳，而经济两侧之间的差距在有意义的需求侧支持到来之前似乎将持续。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>制造业与服务业之间的分化是这里的核心故事，这对市场解读中国复苏轨迹至关重要。制造业在外部需求的支持下保持稳定，出口订单自 2024 年 4 月以来首次恢复扩张。但非制造业 PMI 滑落至 49.4，创 40 个月新低，确认了国内消费者和服务业并未参与复苏。这种分歧限制了对整体数据的乐观解读，并使北京面临压力，要求提供需求侧刺激，而不是依赖可能因霍尔木兹海峡的进一步复杂情况或全球经济放缓而轻易受到干扰的出口势头。在通胀方面，63.7 的高原材料采购价格和 55.1 的出厂价格确认了通胀趋势依然存在，指向 5 月 11 日即将发布的 CPI 数据可能进一步上升。</p>

中概股 ETF - PowerShares

中国龙 ETF - Roundhill

中国 MSCI ETF - iShares

招商中证全指证券公司指数A

<p>中国四月份的 PMI 数据揭示了经济表现的分化。官方制造业 PMI 略微下降至 50.3，得益于出口订单的增加，而非制造业 PMI 则降至 49.4，创下 40 个月来的新低，显示出国内需求疲软。制造业受益于外部需求，新出口订单自 2024 年四月以来首次恢复增长。相比之下，服务业因消费者需求疲软而面临困难，突显了中国经济复苏的分歧</p>

<p>A note from ING with a take on China's data today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自 ING 的一则说明，关于今天中国的数据。</p>
</div><p>China's official manufacturing PMI held at 50.3 in April as export orders returned to growth for the first time since 2024, but the non-manufacturing PMI fell to a 40-month low of 49.4, exposing the weakness in domestic demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国 4 月份官方制造业 PMI 保持在 50.3，出口订单自 2024 年以来首次恢复增长，但非制造业 PMI 降至 49.4，创 40 个月新低，暴露出国内需求的疲软。</p>
</div><p><strong>Summary:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>China's official manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.3 in April from 50.4 in March, coming in above both ING's forecast and broader market expectations, with production ticking up to 51.5 and employment improving slightly though remaining in contraction at 48.8</li>
<li>Overall new orders dropped to 50.6 from 51.6, pointing to weak domestic demand, while the new export orders subindex rose to 50.3, returning to expansion for the first time since April 2024</li>
<li>The imports subindex also returned to expansion at 50.1 for the first time since March 2024, suggesting trade activity held up solidly through the month</li>
<li>Raw material purchase prices remained elevated at 63.7 and ex-factory prices at 55.1, both slightly lower than March but still consistent with a continuing reflation trend that ING expects the May inflation data to confirm</li>
<li>The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI beat expectations more decisively, rising to 52.2 from 50.8, with ING attributing the outperformance to the index's heavier weighting toward export-oriented private firms</li>
<li>China's non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in April, matching January's reading for a 40-month low, with the new orders subindex dropping to 44.3, its lowest level since 2022</li>
<li>Non-manufacturing export orders remained in contraction for a 16th consecutive month at 47.3, while the sales price component stayed contractionary for a 31st straight month at 48.1, indicating cost pressures have not yet been passed on to consumers in the services sector</li>
<li>ING attributed the underperformance in services to the sector's greater domestic orientation relative to manufacturing, with soft consumer demand increasingly weighing on the non-manufacturing reading</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中国 4 月份官方制造业 PMI 从 3 月份的 50.4 微降至 50.3，仍高于 ING 的预测和市场普遍预期，生产小幅上升至 51.5，就业略有改善，但仍处于收缩状态，录得 48.8</li>
<li>整体新订单从 51.6 降至 50.6，显示出国内需求疲软，而新出口订单子指数上升至 50.3，自 2024 年 4 月以来首次恢复扩张</li>
<li>进口子指数也在 2024 年 3 月以来首次回升至 50.1，表明贸易活动在本月保持稳健</li>
<li>原材料采购价格保持在 63.7，出厂价格为 55.1，均略低于 3 月份，但仍与 ING 预期的持续通胀趋势一致，预计 5 月份的通胀数据将确认这一点</li>
<li>私营的 RatingDog 制造业 PMI 表现更为强劲，从 50.8 上升至 52.2，ING 将这一超预期表现归因于该指数对出口导向型私营企业的更高权重</li>
<li>中国 4 月份非制造业 PMI 降至 49.4，匹配 1 月份的读数，创 40 个月新低，新订单子指数降至 44.3，为 2022 年以来的最低水平</li>
<li>非制造业出口订单连续第 16 个月处于收缩状态，录得 47.3，而销售价格成分连续第 31 个月保持在收缩区间，录得 48.1，表明成本压力尚未传递给服务行业的消费者</li>
<li>ING 将服务业的表现不佳归因于该行业相对于制造业的更大国内导向，疲软的消费需求日益影响非制造业的读数</li>
</ul>
</div><p>China's April purchasing managers' index data presented a familiar but increasingly pronounced split: a manufacturing sector drawing support from a recovery in external demand, and a services sector struggling under the weight of soft domestic consumption that shows little sign of turning around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国 4 月份的采购经理人指数数据呈现出一种熟悉但愈发明显的分化：制造业在外部需求复苏的支持下表现良好，而服务业则在疲软的国内消费压力下挣扎，几乎没有转机的迹象。</p>
</div><p>The official manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.3 from 50.4 in March, a negligible move that nonetheless came in above both ING's forecast and broader market consensus. Within the detail, production ticked up 0.1 percentage points to 51.5 and employment improved marginally, though it remained in contraction at 48.8. The more significant movement was in orders. Overall new orders fell to 50.6 from 51.6, a drop that ING analysts attributed to continued weakness in domestic demand. The offset came from the external side: the new export orders subindex climbed 1.2 percentage points to 50.3, returning to expansionary territory for the first time since April 2024. The imports subindex also nudged back above 50 for the first time since March 2024, a signal that trade flows held up through the month despite the elevated uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and its effects on shipping costs and supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官方制造业 PMI 从 3 月份的 50.4 微降至 50.3，尽管这一变动微不足道，但仍高于 ING 的预测和市场普遍共识。在细节方面，生产小幅上升 0.1 个百分点至 51.5，就业略有改善，但仍处于收缩状态，录得 48.8。更显著的变化出现在订单方面。整体新订单从 51.6 降至 50.6，ING 分析师将这一下降归因于国内需求的持续疲软。外部方面的抵消来自于新出口订单子指数上升 1.2 个百分点至 50.3，自 2024 年 4 月以来首次回到扩张区间。进口子指数也在 2024 年 3 月以来首次回升至 50，表明尽管中东冲突及其对运输成本和供应链的影响存在高度不确定性，贸易流在本月仍保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>The private RatingDog PMI, compiled by S&amp;P Global, told a more emphatic version of the same story, rising to 52.2 from 50.8, well above the 51.0 consensus. ING noted that the index's heavier representation of export-oriented private manufacturers explained much of the outperformance relative to the official survey, reinforcing the view that external demand is the engine of China's current recovery while domestic demand remains the drag.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 S&amp;P Global 编制的私营 RatingDog PMI 则讲述了同样的故事，升至 52.2，远高于 51.0 的共识。ING 指出，该指数对出口导向型私营制造商的更高代表性解释了其相对于官方调查的超预期表现，进一步强化了外部需求是中国当前复苏引擎的观点，而国内需求则是拖累因素。</p>
</div><p>On prices, raw material purchase prices held at 63.7 and ex-factory prices at 55.1, both slightly below March but still elevated, consistent with a reflation trend that ING expects to be confirmed when the May CPI data is released on May 11.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在价格方面，原材料采购价格保持在 63.7，出厂价格为 55.1，均略低于 3 月份，但仍处于高位，与 ING 预期的通胀趋势一致，预计 5 月份 CPI 数据将在 5 月 11 日发布时得到确认。</p>
</div><p>The services sector offered little comfort. The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4, matching January's reading for a 40-month low, with the new orders subindex dropping to 44.3, its weakest since 2022. Non-manufacturing export orders remained in contraction for a 16th consecutive month, and the sales price component stayed below 50 for a 31st straight month, indicating that cost pressures are not yet being passed on to end consumers. The only relief was a slight uptick in business expectations to 54.7. ING's conclusion was direct: as China's services sector is more domestically oriented than manufacturing, it has begun to underperform as soft consumer demand increasingly dominates the picture, and the gap between the two sides of the economy looks set to persist until meaningful demand-side support arrives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服务业的表现则令人失望。非制造业 PMI 降至 49.4，匹配 1 月份的读数，创 40 个月新低，新订单子指数降至 44.3，为 2022 年以来的最低水平。非制造业出口订单连续第 16 个月处于收缩状态，销售价格成分连续第 31 个月保持在收缩区间，表明成本压力尚未传递给最终消费者。唯一的缓解是商业预期略微上升至 54.7。ING 的结论很直接：由于中国的服务业相对于制造业更具国内导向，随着疲软的消费需求日益主导局面，服务业开始表现不佳，而经济两侧之间的差距在有意义的需求侧支持到来之前似乎将持续。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>The split between manufacturing and services is the story here, and it matters for how markets read China's recovery trajectory. Manufacturing is holding up, supported by external demand, with export orders back in expansion for the first time since April 2024. But the non-manufacturing PMI sliding to 49.4, a 40-month low, confirms that domestic consumers and the services sector are not participating in the rebound. That divergence limits the bullish read on the headline data and keeps pressure on Beijing to deliver demand-side stimulus rather than relying on export momentum that could easily be disrupted by further Hormuz complications or a global growth slowdown. On inflation, elevated raw material purchase prices at 63.7 and ex-factory prices at 55.1 confirm the reflation trend is intact, pointing toward further upside in the May CPI print due on the 11th.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>制造业与服务业之间的分化是这里的核心故事，这对市场解读中国复苏轨迹至关重要。制造业在外部需求的支持下保持稳定，出口订单自 2024 年 4 月以来首次恢复扩张。但非制造业 PMI 滑落至 49.4，创 40 个月新低，确认了国内消费者和服务业并未参与复苏。这种分歧限制了对整体数据的乐观解读，并使北京面临压力，要求提供需求侧刺激，而不是依赖可能因霍尔木兹海峡的进一步复杂情况或全球经济放缓而轻易受到干扰的出口势头。在通胀方面，63.7 的高原材料采购价格和 55.1 的出厂价格确认了通胀趋势依然存在，指向 5 月 11 日即将发布的 CPI 数据可能进一步上升。</p>
</div>

China PMI data points to export resilience but soft domestic demand remains the weak spot

- 中国 4 月份制造业 PMI 为 50.3，出口订单首次增长。  
- 非制造业 PMI 降至 49.4，创 40 个月新低，反映国内需求疲弱。  
- 制造业与服务业表现分化，需进一步刺激消费以应对经济压力。

中国 PMI 数据显示出口具有韧性，但国内需求疲软仍然是一个弱点