<p>大麻公司最近获得了几十年来最好的消息，这是一项长期承诺的联邦改革。</p>
<p>所以，乍一看，股票仍然以去年夏天的水平交易似乎没有道理。</p>
<p>尤其是考虑到还有其他看涨信号和顺风。</p>
<p>* 在一个迹象表明大麻股票可能被低估的情况下，像 <strong>Curaleaf (CURLF)</strong> 和 <strong>Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF)</strong> 这样的公司正在增加他们的股票回购计划。</p>
<p>* 我们继续获得证据表明，大麻公司的最大商业风险，即持续的价格贬值，在某种意义上并不是问题。消费者继续用他们的钱包支持大麻，尽管价格持续下降，他们在产品上的支出却在增加。许多州的年同比大麻销售增长在 4% 左右。</p>
<p>那么，怎么回事呢？</p>
<p>[text_ad]</p>
<p>深入了解未来的细节，你会看到潜在的看涨和看跌催化剂的混合图景。我在下面强调了三个重要的催化剂。</p>
<h3><strong>刚刚发生了什么</strong></h3>
<p>但首先，让我带你了解一下大麻领域刚刚发生了什么。</p>
<p>这一切都与 “重新分类” 有关。这意味着将大麻从《受控物质法》下的第一类转移到第三类。重新分类有助于大麻公司，因为它中和了一项阻止对第一类物质销售收入扣除运营费用的 IRS 规则（280E）。全面重新分类可能会为大麻公司的资产负债表注入约 20 亿美元。</p>
<p>从大局来看，上周特朗普政府将大麻重新分类了一半。</p>
<p>* 医用大麻立即通过司法部（DOJ）和药物执法局（DEA）的正式命令重新分类。</p>
<p>* 娱乐用大麻没有被重新分类。然而，DOJ 的命令为娱乐用大麻的重新分类听证会铺平了道路。听证会定于 2026 年 6 月 29 日开始，必须在 7 月 15 日之前结束。</p>
<p>现在，这里有三个最重要的看涨和看跌催化剂。这条路线图应该是交易者的退出和进入点的有用指南，也是长期持有投资者的积累点。</p>
<h2>大麻行业未来的三个最重要的催化剂</h2>
<h3><strong>潜在催化剂 #1</strong></h3>
<p>禁毒者提起诉讼挑战重新分类。这将是一个负面催化剂，可能会造成可购买的股票疲软。</p>
<p>禁毒者的法律实力告诉我们，他们并不是在开玩笑。智能大麻方法（SAM）聘请了两届前检察长威廉·巴尔。如果有人知道如何挑战 DOJ 内部的行政法律决定，那就是巴尔及其同事。</p>
<p>我们将不得不等待他们的挑战清单。但这里有一个可能性。特朗普政府根据联合国《麻醉药品单一公约》重新分类了医用大麻。这是有道理的。该条约通过暂停美国监管机构本应遵循的许多法律规则制定程序，为重新分类创造了一条简化的路径。然而，该条约并没有暂停所有程序。SAM 可能会部分基于此挑战重新分类。</p>
<p>从大局来看，关于联合国是否有权对成员国政府施加政策和程序存在疑问。律师香农·彭宁顿和马特·佐恩曾写道，联合国对美国施加大麻政策是对立法权的非宪法委托。这可能是另一个日子的战斗。但它作为医用大麻重新分类的障碍存在。</p>
<p><strong>关键要点</strong>：SAM 诉讼的消息可能会影响该行业的股票，但这可能是一个购买机会，因为还有其他潜在的看涨催化剂在前方。</p>
<h3><strong>潜在催化剂 #2</strong></h3>
<p>目前，280E 的减免福利仅适用于医用大麻收入，约占美国销售的 30%。这是因为只有医用大麻被重新分类。然而，重新分类命令鼓励财政部考虑追溯 280E 税收减免。他们会这样做吗？他们会追溯多久？</p>
<p>在某个时候，财政部将对此进行澄清。三年的追溯期是可能的，这将是看涨的，因为大麻公司因 280E 而支付了大量税收。</p>
<p>例如，仅去年，大麻公司因 IRS 规则 280E 而向联邦政府支付了 22.4 亿美元的税款，该规则禁止对第一类物质销售收入扣除运营费用，Whitney Economics 表示。</p>
<p><strong>关键要点</strong>：对 280E 税收退款的长期多年度追溯将是大麻股票的一个看涨催化剂。</p>
<h3><strong>潜在催化剂 #3</strong></h3>
<p>特朗普政府的医用大麻重新分类命令为今年 6 月和 7 月的娱乐用大麻重新分类听证会铺平了道路。DEA 或 DOJ 可能会在听证会后决定重新分类娱乐用大麻。这将是一个巨大的行业催化剂。</p>
<p>这会发生吗？几位大麻公司首席执行官认为，DEA 或 DOJ 将在那时重新分类娱乐用大麻。</p>
<p><strong>Trulieve (TCNNF)</strong> 首席执行官金·里弗斯认为，重新分类可能在年底之前发生，并可能在第三季度发生。这个较短的时间表是有道理的。这将使积极的大麻改革新闻在中期选举之前发布，这可能有助于保守派赢得摇摆选民。“我不相信他们会开始这个过程，如果他们不认为他们会重新分类，” Curaleaf 首席执行官鲍里斯·乔丹说。</p>
<p>然而，这并不完全正确。根据联合国条约的重新分类允许政府暂停大部分规则制定过程，但并非全部。这使得医疗大麻的重新分类面临禁忌者的挑战，他们认为没有机会在法庭上质疑这一过程。政府可能设立夏季重新分类听证会是为了满足这一要求，并中和对医疗大麻重新分类的潜在法律挑战，而并非因为他们真的想要重新分类娱乐用大麻。</p>
<p>认为娱乐用大麻重新分类是板上钉钉的另一个问题是，过程中的关键参与者似乎并不真正支持它。首先，考虑一下唐纳德·特朗普总统的观点，他是医疗重新分类的推动力。他明确表示，他对娱乐用大麻并不太热衷。</p>
<p>“我听说过很多关于医疗的好事，但我听说过关于其他几乎所有事情的坏事，” 特朗普在去年的一项大麻政策评论中说道。放眼望去，可以看到在政府内部并没有对更广泛的大麻改革产生强烈支持的趋势，一位与该过程密切相关的律师指出。</p>
<p><strong>关键要点</strong>：娱乐用大麻的重新分类将成为一个巨大的行业催化剂，因为这将带来税收利益，并象征着重大的政策转变。但认为这是一件必然的事情可能是个错误。</p>
<p>[author_ad]</p>

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<p>大麻行业正经历由三个关键催化因素驱动的波动。近期的联邦改革导致医疗大麻的重新分类，可能为公司资产负债表注入 20 亿美元。然而，来自禁毒主义者的诉讼可能会导致股票疲软。此外，根据 IRS 第 280E 条款的追溯性税收减免可能性，以及 2026 年中期关于娱乐性大麻重新分类的听证会，可能进一步影响市场。投资者应关注这些动态，以寻找潜在的进出点</p>

<p>Cannabis companies recently got the best news they have seen in decades, in the form of some long-promised federal reform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大麻公司最近获得了几十年来最好的消息，这是一项长期承诺的联邦改革。</p>
</div><p>So, at first blush, it doesn’t make sense that the stocks still trade at the same level they traded at last summer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以，乍一看，股票仍然以去年夏天的水平交易似乎没有道理。</p>
</div><p>Especially considering that there are other bullish signals and tailwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尤其是考虑到还有其他看涨信号和顺风。</p>
</div><p>* In a sign that cannabis stocks may be undervalued, companies like <strong>Curaleaf (CURLF)</strong> and <strong>Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF)</strong> are upping their share buyback plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>* 在一个迹象表明大麻股票可能被低估的情况下，像 <strong>Curaleaf (CURLF)</strong> 和 <strong>Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF)</strong> 这样的公司正在增加他们的股票回购计划。</p>
</div><p>* We continue to get evidence that the biggest business risk for cannabis companies, ongoing price deflation, isn’t really a problem in one sense. Consumers continue to vote in favor of cannabis with their wallets, by spending more on products even as prices continue to decline. Many states are posting year-over-year cannabis sales gains in the 4% range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>* 我们继续获得证据表明，大麻公司的最大商业风险，即持续的价格贬值，在某种意义上并不是问题。消费者继续用他们的钱包支持大麻，尽管价格持续下降，他们在产品上的支出却在增加。许多州的年同比大麻销售增长在 4% 左右。</p>
</div><p>So, what gives?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，怎么回事呢？</p>
</div><p>[text_ad]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[text_ad]</p>
</div><p>Dig into the details of what’s ahead, and you’ll see a pretty mixed picture of potentially bullish and bearish catalysts. I highlight the three big ones, below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>深入了解未来的细节，你会看到潜在的看涨和看跌催化剂的混合图景。我在下面强调了三个重要的催化剂。</p>
</div><h3><strong>What Just Happened</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>刚刚发生了什么</strong></h3>
</div><p>But first, let me bring you up to speed on what just happened in the cannabis space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但首先，让我带你了解一下大麻领域刚刚发生了什么。</p>
</div><p>It’s all about “rescheduling.” This means moving cannabis to Schedule III from Schedule I under the Controlled Substances Act. Rescheduling helps cannabis companies because it neutralizes an IRS rule (280E) that blocks the deduction of operating expenses against revenue from the sale of Schedule I substances. Full rescheduling could inject around $2 billion into cannabis company balance sheets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一切都与 “重新分类” 有关。这意味着将大麻从《受控物质法》下的第一类转移到第三类。重新分类有助于大麻公司，因为它中和了一项阻止对第一类物质销售收入扣除运营费用的 IRS 规则（280E）。全面重新分类可能会为大麻公司的资产负债表注入约 20 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Big picture, the Trump administration last week rescheduled cannabis halfway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从大局来看，上周特朗普政府将大麻重新分类了一半。</p>
</div><p>* Medical cannabis was rescheduled immediately by a formal order from the Justice Department (DOJ) and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>* 医用大麻立即通过司法部（DOJ）和药物执法局（DEA）的正式命令重新分类。</p>
</div><p>* Recreational-use cannabis was not rescheduled. However, the DOJ order sets up a hearing on rec-use rescheduling. The hearing is scheduled to start June 29, 2026. It has to wind up by July 15.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>* 娱乐用大麻没有被重新分类。然而，DOJ 的命令为娱乐用大麻的重新分类听证会铺平了道路。听证会定于 2026 年 6 月 29 日开始，必须在 7 月 15 日之前结束。</p>
</div><p>Now, here are three of the most important bullish and bearish catalysts that lie ahead. This roadmap should be a useful guide to exit and entry points for traders, and accumulation points for long-term, buy-and-hold investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，这里有三个最重要的看涨和看跌催化剂。这条路线图应该是交易者的退出和进入点的有用指南，也是长期持有投资者的积累点。</p>
</div><h2>The 3 Most Important Cannabis Sector Catalysts Ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大麻行业未来的三个最重要的催化剂</h2>
</div><h3><strong>Potential Catalyst #1</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>潜在催化剂 #1</strong></h3>
</div><p>Prohibitionists file a lawsuit challenging rescheduling. This will be a negative catalyst that may create buyable stock weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>禁毒者提起诉讼挑战重新分类。这将是一个负面催化剂，可能会造成可购买的股票疲软。</p>
</div><p>Prohibitionists’ legal firepower tells us they are not messing around. Smart Approaches to Marijuana (SAM) has hired two-time former attorney general William Barr. If anyone knows the best way to challenge administrative law decisions inside the DOJ, it’s Barr and his associates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>禁毒者的法律实力告诉我们，他们并不是在开玩笑。智能大麻方法（SAM）聘请了两届前检察长威廉·巴尔。如果有人知道如何挑战 DOJ 内部的行政法律决定，那就是巴尔及其同事。</p>
</div><p>We’ll have to wait and see their list of challenges. But here is one possibility. The Trump administration rescheduled medical cannabis under the United Nations Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs. This makes sense. The treaty creates a streamlined path to rescheduling by suspending many of the legal rulemaking procedures U.S. regulators would otherwise have to follow. However, the treaty does not suspend all of the procedures. SAM will likely challenge rescheduling in part on this basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们将不得不等待他们的挑战清单。但这里有一个可能性。特朗普政府根据联合国《麻醉药品单一公约》重新分类了医用大麻。这是有道理的。该条约通过暂停美国监管机构本应遵循的许多法律规则制定程序，为重新分类创造了一条简化的路径。然而，该条约并没有暂停所有程序。SAM 可能会部分基于此挑战重新分类。</p>
</div><p>Big picture, there are questions about whether the UN even has the power to impose policy and process on member governments. Attorneys Shane Pennington and Matt Zorn have written that the UN imposition of cannabis policy on the U.S. is an unconstitutional delegation of lawmaking to a foreign body. This may be a battle for another day. But it is out there as a medical cannabis rescheduling hurdle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从大局来看，关于联合国是否有权对成员国政府施加政策和程序存在疑问。律师香农·彭宁顿和马特·佐恩曾写道，联合国对美国施加大麻政策是对立法权的非宪法委托。这可能是另一个日子的战斗。但它作为医用大麻重新分类的障碍存在。</p>
</div><p><strong>Key takeaway</strong>: News of a SAM lawsuit will probably hit stocks in the sector, but that could be a buying opportunity because there are other potentially bullish catalysts on the horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关键要点</strong>：SAM 诉讼的消息可能会影响该行业的股票，但这可能是一个购买机会，因为还有其他潜在的看涨催化剂在前方。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Potential Catalyst #2</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>潜在催化剂 #2</strong></h3>
</div><p>For now, the 280E relief benefit only medical cannabis revenue, about 30% of U.S. sales. That’s because only medical cannabis was rescheduled. However, the rescheduling order encourages the Treasury Department to consider retroactive 280E tax relief. Will they do this? And how far back in time will they go?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，280E 的减免福利仅适用于医用大麻收入，约占美国销售的 30%。这是因为只有医用大麻被重新分类。然而，重新分类命令鼓励财政部考虑追溯 280E 税收减免。他们会这样做吗？他们会追溯多久？</p>
</div><p>At some point, Treasury will clarify this. A three-year look back, which is possible, would be bullish, given how much tax revenue cannabis companies have had to pay because of 280E.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在某个时候，财政部将对此进行澄清。三年的追溯期是可能的，这将是看涨的，因为大麻公司因 280E 而支付了大量税收。</p>
</div><p>For example, last year alone, cannabis companies lost $2.24 billion in taxes paid to the federal government because of IRS Rule 280E, which bars the deduction of operating expenses against revenue from the sale of Schedule I substances, says Whitney Economics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，仅去年，大麻公司因 IRS 规则 280E 而向联邦政府支付了 22.4 亿美元的税款，该规则禁止对第一类物质销售收入扣除运营费用，Whitney Economics 表示。</p>
</div><p><strong>Key takeaway</strong>: A long, multiyear lookback on 280E tax refunds would be a bullish catalyst for cannabis stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关键要点</strong>：对 280E 税收退款的长期多年度追溯将是大麻股票的一个看涨催化剂。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Potential Catalyst # 3</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>潜在催化剂 #3</strong></h3>
</div><p>The Trump administration’s medical cannabis rescheduling order sets up a hearing this June and July on rescheduling recreational-use cannabis. The DEA or the DOJ may decide to reschedule recreational-use cannabis after the hearing. This would be a huge sector catalyst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府的医用大麻重新分类命令为今年 6 月和 7 月的娱乐用大麻重新分类听证会铺平了道路。DEA 或 DOJ 可能会在听证会后决定重新分类娱乐用大麻。这将是一个巨大的行业催化剂。</p>
</div><p>Will this happen? Several cannabis company CEOs think the DEA or DOJ will reschedule rec-use cannabis at that point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这会发生吗？几位大麻公司首席执行官认为，DEA 或 DOJ 将在那时重新分类娱乐用大麻。</p>
</div><p><strong>Trulieve (TCNNF)</strong> CEO Kim Rivers thinks rescheduling could happen by the end of the year, and likely in the third quarter. That shorter timeline makes sense. It would position positive cannabis reform news just ahead of the midterm elections, which presumably might help conservatives win over swing voters. “I don’t believe they would start that process if they didn’t think they would reschedule,” says Curaleaf CEO Boris Jordan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Trulieve (TCNNF)</strong> 首席执行官金·里弗斯认为，重新分类可能在年底之前发生，并可能在第三季度发生。这个较短的时间表是有道理的。这将使积极的大麻改革新闻在中期选举之前发布，这可能有助于保守派赢得摇摆选民。“我不相信他们会开始这个过程，如果他们不认为他们会重新分类，” Curaleaf 首席执行官鲍里斯·乔丹说。</p>
</div><p>However, that’s not entirely true. Rescheduling under the UN treaty allows the government to suspend much of the rulemaking process, but not all of it. This leaves medical cannabis rescheduling open to the prohibitionist challenge that they did not get their day in court to challenge the process. It’s possible the administration set up the summer rescheduling hearing to check this box and neutralize potential legal challenges to rescheduling medical cannabis – and not because it really wants to reschedule rec-use cannabis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这并不完全正确。根据联合国条约的重新分类允许政府暂停大部分规则制定过程，但并非全部。这使得医疗大麻的重新分类面临禁忌者的挑战，他们认为没有机会在法庭上质疑这一过程。政府可能设立夏季重新分类听证会是为了满足这一要求，并中和对医疗大麻重新分类的潜在法律挑战，而并非因为他们真的想要重新分类娱乐用大麻。</p>
</div><p>Here’s another problem with thinking that rec-use rescheduling is a slam dunk. Key players in the process do not really seem to favor it. Above all, consider the views of President Donald Trump, the driving force behind medical rescheduling. He’s stated pretty clearly that he is not too keen on recreational use of cannabis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>认为娱乐用大麻重新分类是板上钉钉的另一个问题是，过程中的关键参与者似乎并不真正支持它。首先，考虑一下唐纳德·特朗普总统的观点，他是医疗重新分类的推动力。他明确表示，他对娱乐用大麻并不太热衷。</p>
</div><p>“I’ve heard great things having to do with medical, and I’ve heard bad things having to do with just about everything else,” Trump said in a cannabis policy comment last year. Zoom out, and you can see there is no great groundswell of support for broader cannabis reform in the administration, notes one attorney close to the process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我听说过很多关于医疗的好事，但我听说过关于其他几乎所有事情的坏事，” 特朗普在去年的一项大麻政策评论中说道。放眼望去，可以看到在政府内部并没有对更广泛的大麻改革产生强烈支持的趋势，一位与该过程密切相关的律师指出。</p>
</div><p><strong>Key takeaway</strong>: Rec-use rescheduling would be a huge sector catalyst because of the tax benefits and the momentous policy shift this would symbolize. But acting like it is a given might be a mistake.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关键要点</strong>：娱乐用大麻的重新分类将成为一个巨大的行业催化剂，因为这将带来税收利益，并象征着重大的政策转变。但认为这是一件必然的事情可能是个错误。</p>
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推动 2026 年大麻行业波动的三大催化剂