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<p>周四，大多数新兴市场股票和货币下跌，因对伊朗战争可能升级的担忧影响了投资者情绪。</p>
<p>油价上涨以及美国联邦储备委员会的鹰派立场进一步加大了压力。</p>
<p>由于担心供应中断，油价飙升超过 7%。</p>
<p>根据 Axios 的报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普预计将收到关于对伊朗进行新一轮军事打击计划的简报，旨在迫使德黑兰重回谈判桌。</p>
<p>这一发展使布伦特原油价格创下四年来的新高。</p>
<p>自冲突开始以来，全球市场一直保持波动。</p>
<p>该地区的航运中断使油价保持高位，引发了对持续通胀的担忧。</p>
<h2>尽管月度表现强劲，新兴市场指数下跌</h2>
<p>MSCI 跟踪的新兴市场货币和股票指数分别下跌 0.2% 和 1.2%。</p>
<p>尽管日内下跌，但这两个指数仍有望实现强劲的月度涨幅。</p>
<p>股票指数有望创下自 2022 年 11 月以来的最大月度涨幅。</p>
<p>这发生在本月早些时候风险偏好改善之际，当时美国和伊朗宣布了临时停火。</p>
<p>尽管谈判停滞，停火协议后来得以延长。</p>
<p>“在没有任何和平谈判迹象和对升级的担忧加剧的情况下，油价继续上涨……投资者正在考虑更持久的冲突，” 德意志银行的分析师在路透社的报道中表示。</p>
<h2>区域市场表现参差不齐</h2>
<p>大多数股票指数当天交易下跌。</p>
<p>在围绕人工智能的乐观情绪中上涨的亚洲市场也出现了下跌。</p>
<p>然而，韩国和台湾录得数十年来最佳的月度表现。</p>
<p>在欧洲，罗马尼亚股票持平，而匈牙利股票上涨 1%。</p>
<p>波兰股票下跌 0.6%，而土耳其股票上涨 0.4%。</p>
<p>南非股票上涨 0.7%，受黄金价格上涨超过 1% 的支持。</p>
<p>黄金仍然是该国的主要出口商品之一。</p>
<h2>美联储分歧增加市场不确定性</h2>
<p>在政策方面，美国联邦储备委员会在杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任主席的最后一次会议上维持利率不变。</p>
<p>然而，这一决定揭示了董事会内部的深刻分歧，标志着自 1992 年以来的最大异议。</p>
<p>市场降低了对降息的预期，现在预计利率可能在 2026 年前保持不变。</p>
<h2>货币波动及全球溢出效应</h2>
<p>在货币方面，土耳其里拉下跌 0.3%，而南非兰特持平。</p>
<p>新兴欧洲货币对欧元的走势参差不齐，罗马尼亚列伊和匈牙利福林分别下跌 0.7% 和 0.8%。</p>
<p>尽管下跌，匈牙利福林仍有望实现自 2012 年 6 月以来的最大月度涨幅。</p>
<p>这一反弹是在中右翼的提萨党赢得压倒性选举胜利后出现的。</p>
<p>在俄罗斯，初步数据显示经济在第一季度收缩了 0.3%。</p>
<p>这是自 2023 年初以来的首次季度收缩。</p>
<p>与此同时，斯里兰卡债券在美元上跌幅超过 1 美分。</p>
<p>这一下跌是由于油价的急剧上涨，突显了地缘政治紧张局势对新兴市场的广泛影响。</p>
<p>关于伊朗的担忧导致新兴市场股票下跌，关注自 2022 年以来最佳月份的文章首发于 Invezz。</p>

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<p>新兴市场股票和货币在周四下跌，原因是对伊朗紧张局势升级、油价上涨以及美国联邦储备委员会的鹰派立场的担忧。油价上涨超过 7%，达到四年来的最高点，市场对供应中断的担忧加剧。尽管每日下跌，MSCI 的指数仍有望实现自 2022 年 11 月以来最佳的月度表现。区域市场表现参差不齐，韩国和台湾实现了显著的月度涨幅。美联储决定维持利率不变，显示出董事会内部的分歧，进一步增加了市场的不确定性</p>

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<p>Most emerging market stocks and currencies declined on Thursday as concerns over a potential escalation in the Iran war weighed on investor sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，大多数新兴市场股票和货币下跌，因对伊朗战争可能升级的担忧影响了投资者情绪。</p>
</div><p>Rising oil prices and a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve added to the pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价上涨以及美国联邦储备委员会的鹰派立场进一步加大了压力。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices surged more than 7% amid fears of supply disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于担心供应中断，油价飙升超过 7%。</p>
</div><p>According to an Axios report US President Donald Trump is expected to receive a briefing on plans for fresh military strikes on Iran, aimed at pushing Tehran back to negotiations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Axios 的报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普预计将收到关于对伊朗进行新一轮军事打击计划的简报，旨在迫使德黑兰重回谈判桌。</p>
</div><p>The development pushed Brent crude to a fresh four-year high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一发展使布伦特原油价格创下四年来的新高。</p>
</div><p>Since the conflict began, global markets have remained volatile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自冲突开始以来，全球市场一直保持波动。</p>
</div><p>Shipping disruptions in the region have kept oil prices elevated, raising concerns about persistent inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该地区的航运中断使油价保持高位，引发了对持续通胀的担忧。</p>
</div><h2>EM indexes dip despite strong monthly performance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>尽管月度表现强劲，新兴市场指数下跌</h2>
</div><p>MSCI’s indexes tracking emerging market currencies and stocks fell 0.2% and 1.2%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 跟踪的新兴市场货币和股票指数分别下跌 0.2% 和 1.2%。</p>
</div><p>Despite the daily decline, both indexes were on track for strong monthly gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管日内下跌，但这两个指数仍有望实现强劲的月度涨幅。</p>
</div><p>The stocks gauge is set for its biggest monthly rise since November 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票指数有望创下自 2022 年 11 月以来的最大月度涨幅。</p>
</div><p>This comes after improved risk appetite earlier in the month, when the US and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这发生在本月早些时候风险偏好改善之际，当时美国和伊朗宣布了临时停火。</p>
</div><p>The ceasefire was later extended, even as negotiations stalled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管谈判停滞，停火协议后来得以延长。</p>
</div><p>“With no sign of any peace talks and fears mounting about an escalation, oil prices have continued their gains of recent days... investors are pricing in a more protracted conflict,” analysts at Deutsche Bank said, as cited in a Reuters report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在没有任何和平谈判迹象和对升级的担忧加剧的情况下，油价继续上涨……投资者正在考虑更持久的冲突，” 德意志银行的分析师在路透社的报道中表示。</p>
</div><h2>Regional markets show mixed performance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>区域市场表现参差不齐</h2>
</div><p>Most stock indexes traded lower on the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数股票指数当天交易下跌。</p>
</div><p>Asian markets, which had rallied on optimism around artificial intelligence, also saw declines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在围绕人工智能的乐观情绪中上涨的亚洲市场也出现了下跌。</p>
</div><p>However, South Korea and Taiwan recorded their best monthly performance in decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，韩国和台湾录得数十年来最佳的月度表现。</p>
</div><p>In Europe, Romanian stocks remained flat, while Hungarian equities rose 1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在欧洲，罗马尼亚股票持平，而匈牙利股票上涨 1%。</p>
</div><p>Polish stocks fell 0.6%, while Turkish equities gained 0.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波兰股票下跌 0.6%，而土耳其股票上涨 0.4%。</p>
</div><p>South African stocks rose 0.7%, supported by a more than 1% increase in gold prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>南非股票上涨 0.7%，受黄金价格上涨超过 1% 的支持。</p>
</div><p>Gold remains one of the country’s key exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金仍然是该国的主要出口商品之一。</p>
</div><h2>Fed division adds to market uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储分歧增加市场不确定性</h2>
</div><p>On the policy front, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Chair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在政策方面，美国联邦储备委员会在杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任主席的最后一次会议上维持利率不变。</p>
</div><p>However, the decision revealed deep divisions within the board, marking the most dissent since 1992.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这一决定揭示了董事会内部的深刻分歧，标志着自 1992 年以来的最大异议。</p>
</div><p>Markets scaled back expectations for rate cuts, now anticipating that rates could remain unchanged through 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场降低了对降息的预期，现在预计利率可能在 2026 年前保持不变。</p>
</div><h2>Currency moves and global spillover effects</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>货币波动及全球溢出效应</h2>
</div><p>Among currencies, Turkey’s lira fell 0.3%, while South Africa’s rand remained flat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在货币方面，土耳其里拉下跌 0.3%，而南非兰特持平。</p>
</div><p>Emerging European currencies showed mixed movement against the euro, with Romania’s leu and Hungary’s forint declining 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新兴欧洲货币对欧元的走势参差不齐，罗马尼亚列伊和匈牙利福林分别下跌 0.7% 和 0.8%。</p>
</div><p>Despite the dip, the Hungarian forint is set for its strongest monthly gain since June 2012.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管下跌，匈牙利福林仍有望实现自 2012 年 6 月以来的最大月度涨幅。</p>
</div><p>The rally followed a sweeping election victory by the centre-right Tisza party.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一反弹是在中右翼的提萨党赢得压倒性选举胜利后出现的。</p>
</div><p>In Russia, preliminary data showed the economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在俄罗斯，初步数据显示经济在第一季度收缩了 0.3%。</p>
</div><p>This marked its first quarterly contraction since early 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是自 2023 年初以来的首次季度收缩。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Sri Lankan bonds fell by more than 1 cent on the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，斯里兰卡债券在美元上跌幅超过 1 美分。</p>
</div><p>The decline was driven by the sharp rise in oil prices, highlighting the broader impact of geopolitical tensions on emerging markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一下跌是由于油价的急剧上涨，突显了地缘政治紧张局势对新兴市场的广泛影响。</p>
</div><p>The post EM stocks dip on Iran fears, eye best month since 2022 appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于伊朗的担忧导致新兴市场股票下跌，关注自 2022 年以来最佳月份的文章首发于 Invezz。</p>
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EM stocks dip on Iran fears, eye best month since 2022

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新兴市场股票因对伊朗的担忧而下跌，但仍有望迎来自 2022 年以来的最佳月份