<p>【东京】4 月份的年度核心通胀率降至四年低点，并连续第三个月低于中央银行 2% 的目标，因为燃料和教育补贴抵消了来自中东冲突的原材料成本上涨。</p>
<p>分析师预计，随着油价飙升和因日元疲软导致的进口价格上涨，消费者通胀将在未来几个月重新加速，这将使日本银行（BOJ）面临加息的压力。</p>
<p>东京核心消费者物价指数（CPI）在 4 月份同比上涨 1.5%，低于 3 月份的 1.7% 增幅，标志着自 2022 年 3 月以来最慢的同比增长。这一增幅低于市场中值预测的 1.8%。</p>
<p>东京核心 CPI 的放缓被视为全国价格趋势的领先指标，主要是由于抑制公用事业账单和学费的补贴影响。</p>
<p>4 月份能源成本同比下降 4.6%，而 3 月份下降了 7.5%。不包括波动性新鲜食品（如蔬菜）的食品价格上涨 4.6%，而 3 月份上涨了 4.9%。</p>
<p>剔除新鲜食品和燃料影响的指数（BOJ 密切关注的更好趋势通胀指标）在 4 月份上涨 1.9%，而 3 月份上涨了 2.3%。</p>
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<p>“由于中东冲突带来的成本推动因素，核心消费者通胀可能会加速，这将推动不仅是能源价格，还有各种商品的价格，” Sompo Institute Plus 的高级经济学家小池正人表示。</p>
<p>“政策措施可能在某种程度上缓解价格压力，但无法完全抵消伊朗战争的影响，因此实际工资可能会回落到负值区域。”</p>
<p>日本银行周二维持利率不变，但发出了关于在不断上升的通胀压力下，最早在 6 月加息的强烈信号。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>日本制造业活动增长因囤积而达到四年高点，PMI 显示</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f3306284bc3ea6a9cbfa8b2db05568305015773e82690cf43ad712fcafca4932/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f3306284bc3ea6a9cbfa8b2db05568305015773e82690cf43ad712fcafca4932/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>日本警告投机性日元波动，暗示可能进行更多干预</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a0d8d8f377cf8e0e8eaff66b2e6192f707c603489d829205bd2a3f8baf2b2140/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a0d8d8f377cf8e0e8eaff66b2e6192f707c603489d829205bd2a3f8baf2b2140/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>日本制造业产出意外下降，伊朗战争对石油基产品造成影响</h3>
<p>在 2024 年结束为期十年的大规模刺激计划后，日本银行多次加息，包括在 12 月份将短期政策利率提高至 0.75%，认为日本即将持久性地达到中央银行 2% 的通胀目标。</p>
<p>但缓慢的加息步伐被指责为导致日元疲软并推高进口成本，从而加大了经济的通胀压力。</p>
<p>为了强调政策制定者对生活成本上升的担忧，日本在周四进行了近两年来的首次购日元干预，消息人士告诉路透社，使日元汇率上涨了多达 3%。</p>
<p>美以与伊朗的战争通过推高燃料成本增加了通胀压力，复杂了日本银行的利率决策，给一个高度依赖该地区石油进口的经济带来了压力。</p>
<p>私人调查显示，日本制造商在 4 月份的投入成本通胀飙升至三年半以来的最高水平，供应链以 15 年来最快的速度恶化，表明冲突开始对企业活动产生影响。路透社</p>
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2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

1346

1369

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

2525

2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

<p>东京的年度核心通胀率在四月份降至四年来的最低点 1.5%，连续第三个月低于日本银行 2% 的目标。这一下降归因于补贴抵消了中东冲突导致的原材料成本上涨。分析师预测，由于油价飙升和日元疲软，通胀将加速，这将迫使日本银行考虑加息。能源成本同比下降了 4.6%，而食品价格上涨了 4.6%。随着通胀压力加大，日本银行发出了可能加息的信号</p>

<p>[TOKYO] Annual core inflation in April hit a four-year low and stayed below the central bank’s 2 per cent target for a third straight month, as fuel and education subsidies offset rising raw material costs from the Middle East conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>【东京】4 月份的年度核心通胀率降至四年低点，并连续第三个月低于中央银行 2% 的目标，因为燃料和教育补贴抵消了来自中东冲突的原材料成本上涨。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect consumer inflation to re-accelerate in the coming months as surging oil prices and higher import prices from a weak yen keep the Bank of Japan (BOJ) under pressure to raise interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计，随着油价飙升和因日元疲软导致的进口价格上涨，消费者通胀将在未来几个月重新加速，这将使日本银行（BOJ）面临加息的压力。</p>
</div><p>The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 1.5 per cent in April from a year earlier, slowing from a 1.7 per cent gain in March and marking the slowest year-on-year growth since March 2022. It compared with a median market forecast for a 1.8 per cent rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>东京核心消费者物价指数（CPI）在 4 月份同比上涨 1.5%，低于 3 月份的 1.7% 增幅，标志着自 2022 年 3 月以来最慢的同比增长。这一增幅低于市场中值预测的 1.8%。</p>
</div><p>The slowdown in Tokyo core CPI, seen as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, was due largely to the effect of subsidies to curb utility bills and tuition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>东京核心 CPI 的放缓被视为全国价格趋势的领先指标，主要是由于抑制公用事业账单和学费的补贴影响。</p>
</div><p>Energy costs fell 4.6 per cent year-on-year in April after a 7.5 per cent drop in March. Prices of food, excluding volatile fresh items like vegetables, rose 4.6 per cent following a 4.9 per cent increase in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月份能源成本同比下降 4.6%，而 3 月份下降了 7.5%。不包括波动性新鲜食品（如蔬菜）的食品价格上涨 4.6%，而 3 月份上涨了 4.9%。</p>
</div><p>An index stripping away the effect of fresh food and fuel, which is closely watched by the BOJ as a better gauge of trend inflation, rose 1.9 per cent in April after a 2.3 per cent gain in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除新鲜食品和燃料影响的指数（BOJ 密切关注的更好趋势通胀指标）在 4 月份上涨 1.9%，而 3 月份上涨了 2.3%。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取洞察信息，直接发送到您的邮箱。</p>
</div><p>“Core consumer inflation is likely to accelerate due to cost-push factors from the Middle East conflict, which will push up not just prices for energy but various items,” said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由于中东冲突带来的成本推动因素，核心消费者通胀可能会加速，这将推动不仅是能源价格，还有各种商品的价格，” Sompo Institute Plus 的高级经济学家小池正人表示。</p>
</div><p>“Policy measures may moderate the price pressures to some extent but not all of the impact from the Iran war, so real wages could fall back to negative territory.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“政策措施可能在某种程度上缓解价格压力，但无法完全抵消伊朗战争的影响，因此实际工资可能会回落到负值区域。”</p>
</div><p>The BOJ kept interest rates steady on Tuesday, but dropped strong signals about the chance of a hike as soon as June on mounting inflationary pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本银行周二维持利率不变，但发出了关于在不断上升的通胀压力下，最早在 6 月加息的强烈信号。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9048d8ac7177a7cacb33d4cb127f5810d985c0620603e4b6c7ce1b5d439a39e6?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Japan’s factory activity growth hits 4-year high on stockpiling, PMI shows</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本制造业活动增长因囤积而达到四年高点，PMI 显示</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f3306284bc3ea6a9cbfa8b2db05568305015773e82690cf43ad712fcafca4932/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/f3306284bc3ea6a9cbfa8b2db05568305015773e82690cf43ad712fcafca4932?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Japan warns of speculative yen moves, signals chance of more intervention</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本警告投机性日元波动，暗示可能进行更多干预</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a0d8d8f377cf8e0e8eaff66b2e6192f707c603489d829205bd2a3f8baf2b2140/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a0d8d8f377cf8e0e8eaff66b2e6192f707c603489d829205bd2a3f8baf2b2140?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Japan’s factory output in surprise fall as Iran war takes toll on petroleum-based products</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日本制造业产出意外下降，伊朗战争对石油基产品造成影响</h3>
</div><p>After exiting a decade-long massive stimulus programme in 2024, the BOJ raised rates several times, including in December, when it took its short-term policy rate to 0.75 per cent on the view Japan was on the cusp of durably hitting the central bank’s 2 per cent inflation target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年结束为期十年的大规模刺激计划后，日本银行多次加息，包括在 12 月份将短期政策利率提高至 0.75%，认为日本即将持久性地达到中央银行 2% 的通胀目标。</p>
</div><p>But the slow pace of rate hikes has been blamed for keeping the yen weak and boosting import costs, which in turn piles inflationary pressure on the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但缓慢的加息步伐被指责为导致日元疲软并推高进口成本，从而加大了经济的通胀压力。</p>
</div><p>Underscoring policymakers’ concern over rising living costs, Japan conducted its first yen-buying intervention in nearly two years on Thursday, sources have told Reuters, sending the Japanese currency higher by as much as 3 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了强调政策制定者对生活成本上升的担忧，日本在周四进行了近两年来的首次购日元干预，消息人士告诉路透社，使日元汇率上涨了多达 3%。</p>
</div><p>The US-Israeli war with Iran has complicated the BOJ’s rate decision by adding inflationary pressure through rising fuel costs, weighing on an economy heavily reliant on oil imports from the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美以与伊朗的战争通过推高燃料成本增加了通胀压力，复杂了日本银行的利率决策，给一个高度依赖该地区石油进口的经济带来了压力。</p>
</div><p>Japanese manufacturers saw input cost inflation surge to a three-and-a-half-year high and supply chains deteriorating at the steepest rate in 15 years in April, a private survey showed on Friday, a sign the conflict was starting to take a toll on corporate activity. REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人调查显示，日本制造商在 4 月份的投入成本通胀飙升至三年半以来的最高水平，供应链以 15 年来最快的速度恶化，表明冲突开始对企业活动产生影响。路透社</p>
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</div>

Core inflation in Tokyo slows, seen accelerating on energy shock

- 东京 4 月份的核心通胀率降至四年低点，低于 2% 的目标。  
- 随着油价和进口价格的上升，分析师预计通胀将在未来几个月加速。  
- 日本银行面临加息压力，并可能在 6 月份采取行动。

东京的核心通胀放缓，但预计因能源冲击将加速