<p>中国的奢侈品市场正在复苏，奢侈品牌的业绩显示出对奢侈品需求和情绪稳定的趋势，杰富瑞最近的一份报告中指出。在报告中，分析师讨论了短期情绪驱动因素和原材料价格冲击的潜在影响，并确定了一只 “具备结构性增长潜力” 的股票。杰富瑞将贵州茅台（600519）的股票视为 “具备结构性增长潜力”。该股票也被认为是中国奢侈消费的良好代表。杰富瑞对茅台股票的评级为买入，目标价为人民币 1,458.49 元。根据该公司的调查，茅台在过去四到六个月的零售销售中出现了强劲反弹，零售销售同比基本上再次转为正增长。原材料价格冲击不太可能对公司的利润率造成问题。分析师表示：“与其他主食和酒类公司不同，我们认为茅台的高利润率使其免受原材料成本冲击的影响。此外，公用事业和运输成本对茅台的利润率影响微乎其微。我们不认为石油短缺会对茅台的生产构成风险。” 预计该公司将在主要高端白酒价格区间（每瓶人民币 1,000 元以上、600-1,000 元、400-600 元）加速市场份额的增长。促成这一发展的因素有两个方面：线上与线下的整合，以及经销商激励。关于线上与线下的整合，分析师表示，公司对飞天价格的更大控制防止了线上线下的转售活动。这使得它能够更好地利用线上渠道，享受来自电商平台的流量和补贴。关于经销商激励，分析师指出，尽管茅台推动直销，但经销商仍然受到鼓励。茅台 1935 和茅台王子的产品改造已被证明成功，使经销商能够从新的收益来源中受益，而之前他们仅依赖飞天。这鼓励经销商推广茅台的全系列产品。分析师补充道，茅台所享有的积极经销商情绪和利润率在当今的白酒行业中是罕见的。这预计将帮助茅台获取市场份额。该公司是中国超高端酒市场的主导者，拥有最强的品牌价值。茅台的渠道策略将市场回归大型经销商，预计飞天的价格将得到稳定。该公司预测未来三年中到高个位数的销量增长，而价格上涨和产品组合变化被视为销售增长的关键驱动因素。</p>

贵州茅台

<p>Jefferies 分析师报告称，贵州茅台（600519）在中国复苏的奢侈品市场中具备良好的结构性增长潜力。该股票评级为买入，目标价为人民币 1,458.49。茅台的零售销售已出现反弹，其高利润率使其能够抵御原材料价格波动。预计公司将通过线上线下整合和经销商激励措施在高端白酒市场中获得市场份额。分析师预测未来三年将实现中高个位数的销量增长，主要受价格上涨和产品组合变化的推动</p>

<p>The luxury market in China is recovering, with luxury brands’ results showing a trend of stabilising demand and sentiment for luxury goods, says a recent note from Jefferies. In the note, firm analysts discuss the potential impacts of near-term sentiment drivers and raw material price shocks, and also identify a stock “positioned for structural growth.” Jefferies identifies distillery company Kweichow Moutai’s (600519) shares as “positioned for structural growth.” The stock is also seen by the firm as a good proxy of China luxury consumption.Kweichow Moutai stock is rated Buy at the firm with a price target of RMB 1,458.49.Moutai has seen a strong rebound in retail sales over the last four to six months, and retail sales have largely become positive YOY again, according to the firm’s checks.Raw-material price shocks are unlikely to pose a problem for the company’s margins.“Unlike other staple and alcohol companies, we believe Moutai’s high margins make it immune to raw-material cost shocks. In addition, utilities and transportation costs appear insignificant to Moutai’s margins. We do not see oil shortage as a risk to Moutai’s production,” the analysts said.The company is expected to accelerate its market share gain in major premium baijiu price ranges (above RMB 1,000 per bottle, 600-1,000, 400-600). The factors contributing to this development are two-fold: on-line and off-line integration, and distributor incentives.Discussing on-line and off-line integration, firm analysts said that the company’s greater control over Feitian prices has prevented on-line off-line resell activities. This is what allows it to make better use of the on-line channel, where it can enjoy both traffic as well as subsidies from e-commerce platforms.Regarding distributor incentives, the analysts note that distributors remain encouraged despite Moutai’s DTC push. The Moutai 1935 and Moutai Prince product overhauls have been proven successful, allowing distributors to benefit from a new source of earnings, whereas previously they relied on Feitian only.This is encouraging distributors to promote Moutai’s full range of products.The positive distributor sentiment and margins enjoyed by Moutai are rare in today’s baijiu industry, the analysts added. This is expected to help Moutai capture market share.The company is the dominant player in China’s super-premium liquor market, and it has the strongest brand equity. The prices of Feitian will likely be stabilised by Moutai’s channel strategy of giving the market back to large distributors.The firm is forecasting mid-to-high-single-digit volume growth for the next three years, while price hikes and product mix changes are seen as key drivers of sales growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的奢侈品市场正在复苏，奢侈品牌的业绩显示出对奢侈品需求和情绪稳定的趋势，杰富瑞最近的一份报告中指出。在报告中，分析师讨论了短期情绪驱动因素和原材料价格冲击的潜在影响，并确定了一只 “具备结构性增长潜力” 的股票。杰富瑞将贵州茅台（600519）的股票视为 “具备结构性增长潜力”。该股票也被认为是中国奢侈消费的良好代表。杰富瑞对茅台股票的评级为买入，目标价为人民币 1,458.49 元。根据该公司的调查，茅台在过去四到六个月的零售销售中出现了强劲反弹，零售销售同比基本上再次转为正增长。原材料价格冲击不太可能对公司的利润率造成问题。分析师表示：“与其他主食和酒类公司不同，我们认为茅台的高利润率使其免受原材料成本冲击的影响。此外，公用事业和运输成本对茅台的利润率影响微乎其微。我们不认为石油短缺会对茅台的生产构成风险。” 预计该公司将在主要高端白酒价格区间（每瓶人民币 1,000 元以上、600-1,000 元、400-600 元）加速市场份额的增长。促成这一发展的因素有两个方面：线上与线下的整合，以及经销商激励。关于线上与线下的整合，分析师表示，公司对飞天价格的更大控制防止了线上线下的转售活动。这使得它能够更好地利用线上渠道，享受来自电商平台的流量和补贴。关于经销商激励，分析师指出，尽管茅台推动直销，但经销商仍然受到鼓励。茅台 1935 和茅台王子的产品改造已被证明成功，使经销商能够从新的收益来源中受益，而之前他们仅依赖飞天。这鼓励经销商推广茅台的全系列产品。分析师补充道，茅台所享有的积极经销商情绪和利润率在当今的白酒行业中是罕见的。这预计将帮助茅台获取市场份额。该公司是中国超高端酒市场的主导者，拥有最强的品牌价值。茅台的渠道策略将市场回归大型经销商，预计飞天的价格将得到稳定。该公司预测未来三年中到高个位数的销量增长，而价格上涨和产品组合变化被视为销售增长的关键驱动因素。</p>
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杰富瑞表示，这只中国股票 “具备结构性增长的潜力”