<p>一个时钟在滴答作响，但大多数人看不见。它不是在新闻周期或社交媒体帖子中滴答，而是在种植日历中滴答。</p>
<p>北半球的春季施肥期持续到六月。非洲部分地区现在正进入主要种植季节——这是该大陆最缺乏粮食保障人群的关键窗口。错过这个窗口不会延迟收成——而是会彻底消失。短缺在明年秋天以价格飙升和货架空空如也的形式显现出来，之前是看不见的。</p>
<p>这是霍尔木兹海峡封锁报道所缺失的故事。危机不仅仅是推高能源价格——它正在破坏粮食供应链。世界正面临一场慢性灾难，直到为时已晚才会显现出来。</p>
<p>霍尔木兹海峡大约承载了全球三分之一的肥料贸易。如果农民错过施肥窗口，任何补种都无法弥补损失。国际谷物理事会估计，全球小麦和粗粮的累计产量可能比上个季度下降 5300 万吨，这一短缺超过了乌克兰在正常年份的全年粮食出口量。</p>
<p>孟加拉国六家国内肥料工厂中有五家已关闭。索马里的商品价格上涨了 20%。世界粮食计划署预计，如果冲突在六月后持续，且油价超过每桶 100 美元，将有 4500 万人将陷入严重粮食不安全，全球总数将达到 3.63 亿——创历史新高。</p>
<p>Helios AI 预测到 2026 年底全球食品价格将上涨 12% 至 18%。对于美国人和欧洲人来说，杂货店的价格将上涨。对于非洲、南亚和中东的数百万人民来说，食物将不够。</p>
<p>美国和伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡问题上陷入僵局。原因并不神秘。政治学家 I. William Zartman 分析了此类冲突，他的成熟理论认为，只有在两个条件存在时，各方才会打破僵局：一是双方都经历显著痛苦且没有胜利前景的相互伤害的僵局，二是双方都不认为是屈辱的出路。</p>
<p>霍尔木兹的僵局正在伤害双方。伊朗经济正在急剧收缩。特朗普政府面临着民调下降和食品、能源价格上涨的压力，正值艰难的中期选举季节。但仍然缺乏一条让双方都能缓和局势并声称胜利的道路。伊朗的新最高领导人在美国军事压力下无法重新开放海峡。这看起来像是投降，会引发伊斯兰革命卫队的反弹。特朗普总统无法接受低于完全遵守伊朗的要求。</p>
<p>2022 年的黑海粮食倡议提供了一条潜在的路线图。当俄罗斯封锁乌克兰的粮食港口时，全面协议是不可能的。但可以达成一个狭窄的协议：一条人道走廊，俄罗斯和乌克兰分别与土耳其和联合国签署了文件，而不是彼此之间。该倡议将近 3300 万吨粮食运送到全球市场。</p>
<p>霍尔木兹版本的架构已经存在。联合国项目服务办公室执行主任 Jorge Moreira da Silva 在 4 月 21 日确认，联合国已经开发出一种 “一站式平台” 机制，一旦获得政治授权，可以在七天内启动。阿曼在与伊朗保持了数十年的秘密渠道，准备充当中介。</p>
<p>要求很简单：对一类人道主义货物（尿素、氨和肥料）进行临时暂停封锁，目的地为非交战国。不是重新开放海峡。不是核协议。是一条肥料走廊。</p>
<p>框架自然而然地形成。对伊朗来说：“伊斯兰共和国已授权有限的肥料通行，符合其人道主义义务。革命卫队对海峡保留完全的控制权。” 对美国来说：“这一狭窄的人道主义例外并不改变我们对消除伊朗核计划和无障碍通过海峡的要求。”</p>
<p>双方都不退让。双方都可以声称他们是为了世界上最贫困、最脆弱的人们而行动。</p>
<p>两国政府应该权衡的政治考量。高食品价格往往会引发政治动荡。毁灭性的粮食危机可能会引发自阿拉伯之春以来未见的全球不稳定。帮助促成一条稳定食品价格的走廊的美国总统，在中期选举中将处于更强的位置，而不是面对因僵局而导致的高食品价格。伊朗领导层在其自身条件下开放人道走廊，会以一种对大规模饥荒的漠视所无法比拟的方式产生国际善意。</p>
<p>每延迟一周，外交窗口就会缩小，人道主义灾难的潜在性就会扩大。粮食和农业组织农业经济部主任 David Laborde 阐明了选择：“我们正处于输入危机中；我们不想让它变成灾难。区别在于我们采取的行动。”</p>
<p>走廊已经准备好。调解人已经准备好。联合国已经准备好。种植季节的时钟正在滴答作响。</p>
<p><em>Monica Gorman 博士是 Crowell Global Advisors 的董事总经理。她曾在拜登政府担任总统制造与工业政策特别助理，联合主持白宫供应链中断工作组。</em></p>

全球农产品股指数 ETF - iShares

食品ETF

KROP

全球农业 - First Trust

全球农业 ETF - Market Vectors

粮食ETF

<p>霍尔木兹海峡对全球肥料贸易至关重要，目前面临封锁，影响了食品供应链。随着春季种植截止日期的临近，肥料短缺可能导致食品价格大幅上涨，并加剧食品安全问题，尤其是在非洲和南亚。美国和伊朗目前处于僵局，但一个潜在的解决方案是为肥料运输开辟人道主义走廊。该倡议可以稳定食品价格，防止人道主义灾难，同时在政治上惠及两国，并满足脆弱人群的紧急需求</p>

<p>A clock is ticking that most people cannot see. It does not tick in news cycles or social media posts. It ticks in planting calendars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个时钟在滴答作响，但大多数人看不见。它不是在新闻周期或社交媒体帖子中滴答，而是在种植日历中滴答。</p>
</div><p>Spring fertilizer application in the Northern Hemisphere runs through June. Parts of Africa are entering the primary planting season now — a critical window for the continent’s most food-insecure populations. A missed window doesn’t delay a harvest — it eliminates it. The shortfall will be invisible until it materializes in spiking prices and empty shelves next fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北半球的春季施肥期持续到六月。非洲部分地区现在正进入主要种植季节——这是该大陆最缺乏粮食保障人群的关键窗口。错过这个窗口不会延迟收成——而是会彻底消失。短缺在明年秋天以价格飙升和货架空空如也的形式显现出来，之前是看不见的。</p>
</div><p>This is the story the Hormuz blockade coverage is missing. The crisis isn’t just raising energy prices — it is breaking food supply chains. The world is facing a slow-motion catastrophe that will not announce itself until it is too late.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是霍尔木兹海峡封锁报道所缺失的故事。危机不仅仅是推高能源价格——它正在破坏粮食供应链。世界正面临一场慢性灾难，直到为时已晚才会显现出来。</p>
</div><p>The Hormuz Strait carries roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade. If farmers miss the application window, no amount of catch-up planting can recover the loss. The International Grains Council estimates cumulative global wheat and coarse grain output could fall 53 million tons below last season, a shortfall larger than Ukraine’s entire annual grain export volume in a typical year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹海峡大约承载了全球三分之一的肥料贸易。如果农民错过施肥窗口，任何补种都无法弥补损失。国际谷物理事会估计，全球小麦和粗粮的累计产量可能比上个季度下降 5300 万吨，这一短缺超过了乌克兰在正常年份的全年粮食出口量。</p>
</div><p>Five of Bangladesh’s six domestic fertilizer factories have shut down. Somalia’s commodity prices are up 20 percent. The World Food Program projects that if the conflict continues beyond June with oil above $100 per barrel, 45 million more people will enter acute food insecurity and push the global total to 363 million — a record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>孟加拉国六家国内肥料工厂中有五家已关闭。索马里的商品价格上涨了 20%。世界粮食计划署预计，如果冲突在六月后持续，且油价超过每桶 100 美元，将有 4500 万人将陷入严重粮食不安全，全球总数将达到 3.63 亿——创历史新高。</p>
</div><p>Helios AI predicts a 12 percent to 18 percent rise in global food prices by end of 2026. For Americans and Europeans, prices at the grocery store will go up. For millions of people across Africa, South Asia and the Middle East, there won’t be enough food.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Helios AI 预测到 2026 年底全球食品价格将上涨 12% 至 18%。对于美国人和欧洲人来说，杂货店的价格将上涨。对于非洲、南亚和中东的数百万人民来说，食物将不够。</p>
</div><p>The United States and Iran are deadlocked over Hormuz. The reason is not a mystery. Political scientist I. William Zartman analyzed such conflicts, and his ripeness theory holds that parties break stalemates only when two conditions are present: a mutually hurting stalemate in which both sides experience significant pain with no prospect of victory, and a way out that neither side sees as humiliation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国和伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡问题上陷入僵局。原因并不神秘。政治学家 I. William Zartman 分析了此类冲突，他的成熟理论认为，只有在两个条件存在时，各方才会打破僵局：一是双方都经历显著痛苦且没有胜利前景的相互伤害的僵局，二是双方都不认为是屈辱的出路。</p>
</div><p>The Hormuz stalemate is hurting both sides. Iran’s economy is contracting sharply. The Trump administration is facing falling poll numbers and rising food and energy prices in a tough midterm election season. But still missing is a pathway that lets both sides de-escalate while claiming victory. Iran’s new supreme leader cannot reopen the strait under U.S. military pressure. That would look like capitulation and invite backlash from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. President Trump cannot accept anything less than total Iranian compliance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹的僵局正在伤害双方。伊朗经济正在急剧收缩。特朗普政府面临着民调下降和食品、能源价格上涨的压力，正值艰难的中期选举季节。但仍然缺乏一条让双方都能缓和局势并声称胜利的道路。伊朗的新最高领导人在美国军事压力下无法重新开放海峡。这看起来像是投降，会引发伊斯兰革命卫队的反弹。特朗普总统无法接受低于完全遵守伊朗的要求。</p>
</div><p>The Black Sea Grain Initiative of 2022 provides a potential roadmap. When Russia blockaded Ukraine’s grain ports, a comprehensive agreement was impossible. But a narrow agreement was possible: a humanitarian corridor for which Russia and Ukraine signed separate documents with Turkey and the United Nations, not each other. The initiative moved nearly 33 million tons of grain to global markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2022 年的黑海粮食倡议提供了一条潜在的路线图。当俄罗斯封锁乌克兰的粮食港口时，全面协议是不可能的。但可以达成一个狭窄的协议：一条人道走廊，俄罗斯和乌克兰分别与土耳其和联合国签署了文件，而不是彼此之间。该倡议将近 3300 万吨粮食运送到全球市场。</p>
</div><p>The architecture for a Hormuz version already exists. United Nations Office for Project Services Executive Director Jorge Moreira da Silva confirmed on April 21 that the U.N. has developed a “one-stop platform” mechanism that can be up and running in seven days once political authorization is given. Oman, which has maintained a backchannel to Iran for decades, is ready to serve as intermediary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹版本的架构已经存在。联合国项目服务办公室执行主任 Jorge Moreira da Silva 在 4 月 21 日确认，联合国已经开发出一种 “一站式平台” 机制，一旦获得政治授权，可以在七天内启动。阿曼在与伊朗保持了数十年的秘密渠道，准备充当中介。</p>
</div><p>The ask is narrow: a temporary suspension of both blockades for a defined category of humanitarian cargo (urea, ammonia and fertilizer) destined for non-combatant nations. Not a strait reopening. Not a nuclear agreement. A fertilizer corridor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要求很简单：对一类人道主义货物（尿素、氨和肥料）进行临时暂停封锁，目的地为非交战国。不是重新开放海峡。不是核协议。是一条肥料走廊。</p>
</div><p>The framing writes itself. For Iran: “The Islamic Republic has authorized limited passage for fertilizer, consistent with its humanitarian obligations. The Revolutionary Guard retains full authority over the Strait.” For the U.S.: “This narrow humanitarian exception does not change our demands for elimination of Iran’s nuclear program and unfettered Strait passage.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>框架自然而然地形成。对伊朗来说：“伊斯兰共和国已授权有限的肥料通行，符合其人道主义义务。革命卫队对海峡保留完全的控制权。” 对美国来说：“这一狭窄的人道主义例外并不改变我们对消除伊朗核计划和无障碍通过海峡的要求。”</p>
</div><p>Neither side backs down. Both can claim they acted for the world’s poorest, most vulnerable people.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>双方都不退让。双方都可以声称他们是为了世界上最贫困、最脆弱的人们而行动。</p>
</div><p>There are political calculations that both governments should weigh. High food prices often precipitate political unrest. A devastating food crisis could unleash global instability not seen since the Arab Spring. A U.S. president who helps broker a corridor that stabilizes food prices is in a stronger position heading into midterms than one facing high food prices caused by a standoff. Iranian leadership that opens a humanitarian corridor on its own terms generates international goodwill in a way that indifference to mass starvation would not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两国政府应该权衡的政治考量。高食品价格往往会引发政治动荡。毁灭性的粮食危机可能会引发自阿拉伯之春以来未见的全球不稳定。帮助促成一条稳定食品价格的走廊的美国总统，在中期选举中将处于更强的位置，而不是面对因僵局而导致的高食品价格。伊朗领导层在其自身条件下开放人道走廊，会以一种对大规模饥荒的漠视所无法比拟的方式产生国际善意。</p>
</div><p>Every week of delay narrows the diplomatic window and widens the potential for humanitarian disaster. David Laborde, director of the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Agrifood Economics division, laid out the choice: “We are in an input crisis; we don’t want to make it a catastrophe. The difference depends on the actions we take.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每延迟一周，外交窗口就会缩小，人道主义灾难的潜在性就会扩大。粮食和农业组织农业经济部主任 David Laborde 阐明了选择：“我们正处于输入危机中；我们不想让它变成灾难。区别在于我们采取的行动。”</p>
</div><p>The corridor is ready. The mediators are ready. The U.N. is ready. The clock on the planting season is ticking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>走廊已经准备好。调解人已经准备好。联合国已经准备好。种植季节的时钟正在滴答作响。</p>
</div><p><em>Monica Gorman, Ph.D., is a managing director at Crowell Global Advisors. She was special assistant to the president for Manufacturing &amp; Industrial Policy in the Biden administration, where she co-chaired the White House Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Monica Gorman 博士是 Crowell Global Advisors 的董事总经理。她曾在拜登政府担任总统制造与工业政策特别助理，联合主持白宫供应链中断工作组。</em></p>
</div>

世界现在迫切需要一个霍尔木兹肥料倡议