<p>[新德里] 印度于周一（5 月 4 日）开始在多个关键州计票，这为总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在面临加剧的经济挑战时的人气提供了一个晴雨表。</p>
<p>在东部的西孟加拉邦，赌注尤其高，莫迪的印度人民党（BJP）正寻求首次战胜执政 15 年的首席部长玛玛塔·班纳吉。上周投票结束时的出口民调显示，BJP 在班纳吉的政党面前略占优势。</p>
<p>这场竞选在双方之间展开了激烈的竞争，并且以对选民名单的有争议的更改为主导，反对派称莫迪的政党利用这一点来倾斜选举结果。被称为特别强化修订的这一举措掩盖了传统的竞选议题，如就业和通货膨胀。</p>
<p>在西孟加拉邦获胜将使 BJP 的支持超越其在印度北部和西部的传统根据地。该州在下议院（即人民院）中也具有重要的政治分量，代表人数位居第三。</p>
<p>西孟加拉邦的结果不仅对该州重要，也对国家政治至关重要，因为这可能为 2029 年的全国选举定下基调，班纳拉斯印度大学的政治分析师和联合国教科文组织和平讲座教授普里扬卡·乌帕迪亚亚表示。</p>
<p>“这次选举，尤其是以异常的攻击性和强度进行，因为西孟加拉邦仍被视为反对派的堡垒，” 他说。</p>
<h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
<p>获取洞察，送到您的邮箱。</p>
<p>在西孟加拉邦获胜将巩固莫迪的人气，并标志着与两年前的转变，当时 BJP 未能在大选中获得多数席位。</p>
<p>这也将有助于增强总理的权力，因为他正在应对由伊朗战争引发的经济压力。印度在能源供应上严重依赖中东，并受到天然气短缺和油价飙升的影响。印度卢比已跌至历史低点，政府警告称，通货膨胀上升可能会抑制经济需求。</p>
<p>BJP 和班纳吉的特里纳穆尔国大党承诺向女性和失业青年提供现金补助以吸引选民。由于数十万孟加拉工人担心在选民修订后可能失去福利，投票率异常高，超过 90%。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a355eeedcf920053d10ad7ecf99f09c366e853c1359f60cdef64a965c7200d59/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a355eeedcf920053d10ad7ecf99f09c366e853c1359f60cdef64a965c7200d59/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>莫迪与马克龙的 ‘世纪合同’：印度 - 欧洲贸易的新支柱</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>印度侨民投资者面临更少障碍，但分析师认为仍需更多措施来改善交易条件</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/df9f0bc7d167b0f95fd39dde7bf3329460d9b71cd8650176f1a6a8930f2046ee/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/df9f0bc7d167b0f95fd39dde7bf3329460d9b71cd8650176f1a6a8930f2046ee/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>印度与马来西亚重申推动贸易与合作的承诺</h3>
<p>选举委员会从选民名单中删除了约九百万个名字，称此举旨在消除重复条目和非法移民。反对派团体指控莫迪的印度民族主义政党利用这一举措主要针对贫困和穆斯林选民。</p>
<p>“对于 BJP 来说，尽管进行了激进的竞选和制度优势，但在孟加拉的失利将凸显其以印度教民族主义为驱动的意识形态和扩张战略的局限性，” 彭博社南亚地缘经济分析师切特娜·库马尔写道。“对于班纳吉来说，赌注更高：保持权力对维持她的国家雄心和将她定位为 2029 年对莫迪的可信挑战者至关重要。”</p>
<p>选举委员会还将公布在四月投票的阿萨姆邦、泰米尔纳德邦和喀拉拉邦的投票结果。</p>
<p>在邻近的阿萨姆邦，出口民调显示 BJP 领导的联盟预计将赢得第三个连续任期，为希曼塔·比斯瓦·萨尔马继续担任首席部长铺平道路。该党将其竞选重点放在安全和来自邻国孟加拉国的非法移民上，同时承诺增加对发展项目的支出。</p>
<p>投资者将密切关注泰米尔纳德邦的结果，该州由反对派控制，是汽车制造、电子制造和苹果 iPhone 生产的关键设施所在地。</p>
<p>该州由首席部长 MK·斯大林治理，他的德拉维达进步联盟党预计将连续第二次保持权力，大多数出口民调显示。BJP 是与地方的全印度安娜·德拉维达进步联盟的联盟中的少数合作伙伴。它竞选了 27 个席位，将其余席位留给地方盟友和其他合作伙伴。</p>
<p>喀拉拉邦在选举中有更换政府的历史。出口民调显示，由印度国民大会党领导的联盟首次击败由印度共产党（马克思主义）领导的联盟，自 2016 年以来首次。BJP 在该州的政治中是一个小角色，并未在 2021 年州选举中赢得任何席位。彭博社</p>
<p>解码亚洲通讯：您在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲的指南。点击此处注册以获取解码亚洲通讯。送到您的邮箱。免费。</p>

印度 MSCI ETF - iShares

华夏印度

印度 ETF - WisdomTree

华夏印度-U

安硕印度

<p>印度开始在关键州计票，这对总理莫迪在经济挑战中的受欢迎程度至关重要。印度人民党（BJP）旨在在与首席部长班纳吉（Mamata Banerjee）的激烈竞选后，在西孟加拉邦取得首次胜利。胜利将扩大 BJP 的影响力，并在 2029 年选举前影响国家政治。高投票率和有争议的选民名单变更标志着此次选举。人们还期待来自阿萨姆邦、泰米尔纳德邦和喀拉拉邦的结果，出口民调显示 BJP 在阿萨姆邦有潜在胜利，而执政党在泰米尔纳德邦表现强劲</p>

<p>[NEW DELHI] India begins counting votes in several key states on Monday (May 4), providing a barometer of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity in the face of heightened economic challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[新德里] 印度于周一（5 月 4 日）开始在多个关键州计票，这为总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在面临加剧的经济挑战时的人气提供了一个晴雨表。</p>
</div><p>The stakes are particularly high in the eastern state of West Bengal, where Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking its first win against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who has been in power for 15 years. Exit polls at the end of voting last week showed the BJP holding a slight edge over Banerjee’s party.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在东部的西孟加拉邦，赌注尤其高，莫迪的印度人民党（BJP）正寻求首次战胜执政 15 年的首席部长玛玛塔·班纳吉。上周投票结束时的出口民调显示，BJP 在班纳吉的政党面前略占优势。</p>
</div><p>The campaign saw a bitter contest between the two sides and was dominated by controversial changes to voter rolls, which the opposition said Modi’s party was using to tilt the election in his favour. Known as the Special Intensive Revision, the exercise overshadowed traditional campaign issues such as jobs and inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这场竞选在双方之间展开了激烈的竞争，并且以对选民名单的有争议的更改为主导，反对派称莫迪的政党利用这一点来倾斜选举结果。被称为特别强化修订的这一举措掩盖了传统的竞选议题，如就业和通货膨胀。</p>
</div><p>A victory in West Bengal would expand the BJP’s support beyond its traditional strongholds in northern and western India. The state also carries significant political weight, with the third-highest representation in the lower house of parliament, or Lok Sabha.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在西孟加拉邦获胜将使 BJP 的支持超越其在印度北部和西部的传统根据地。该州在下议院（即人民院）中也具有重要的政治分量，代表人数位居第三。</p>
</div><p>West Bengal results matter not just for the state but for national politics, as they could set the tone for national elections in 2029, said Priyankar Upadhyaya, a political analyst and Unesco chair professor of peace at Banaras Hindu University.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西孟加拉邦的结果不仅对该州重要，也对国家政治至关重要，因为这可能为 2029 年的全国选举定下基调，班纳拉斯印度大学的政治分析师和联合国教科文组织和平讲座教授普里扬卡·乌帕迪亚亚表示。</p>
</div><p>“This election, in particular, was fought with unusual aggression and intensity, as West Bengal is still seen as a citadel of the opposition,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这次选举，尤其是以异常的攻击性和强度进行，因为西孟加拉邦仍被视为反对派的堡垒，” 他说。</p>
</div><h3>Navigate Asia in  a new global order</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
</div><p>Get the insights delivered to your inbox.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取洞察，送到您的邮箱。</p>
</div><p>A win in West Bengal would solidify Modi’s popularity and mark a turnaround from two years ago when the BJP failed to secure a majority in the general election.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在西孟加拉邦获胜将巩固莫迪的人气，并标志着与两年前的转变，当时 BJP 未能在大选中获得多数席位。</p>
</div><p>It would also help to strengthen the prime minister’s hand as he grapples with economic pressures triggered by the Iran war. India is heavily reliant on energy supplies from the Middle East and has been hit by gas shortages and surging oil costs. The rupee has plunged to a record low, and the government has warned that higher inflation could curb demand in the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也将有助于增强总理的权力，因为他正在应对由伊朗战争引发的经济压力。印度在能源供应上严重依赖中东，并受到天然气短缺和油价飙升的影响。印度卢比已跌至历史低点，政府警告称，通货膨胀上升可能会抑制经济需求。</p>
</div><p>The BJP and Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress party promised cash handouts to women and unemployed youth to lure voters. Turnout in the election was unusually high at over 90 per cent as hundreds of thousands of Bengali workers across the country made the trip home to cast their ballots, concerned they may lose access to benefits after the voter revision exercise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BJP 和班纳吉的特里纳穆尔国大党承诺向女性和失业青年提供现金补助以吸引选民。由于数十万孟加拉工人担心在选民修订后可能失去福利，投票率异常高，超过 90%。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a355eeedcf920053d10ad7ecf99f09c366e853c1359f60cdef64a965c7200d59/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a355eeedcf920053d10ad7ecf99f09c366e853c1359f60cdef64a965c7200d59?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Modi and Macron’s ‘contract of the century’: A new anchor for India-Europe trade</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>莫迪与马克龙的 ‘世纪合同’：印度 - 欧洲贸易的新支柱</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Fewer hurdles for Indian diaspora investors, but more needed to sweeten the deal: analysts</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>印度侨民投资者面临更少障碍，但分析师认为仍需更多措施来改善交易条件</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/df9f0bc7d167b0f95fd39dde7bf3329460d9b71cd8650176f1a6a8930f2046ee/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/df9f0bc7d167b0f95fd39dde7bf3329460d9b71cd8650176f1a6a8930f2046ee?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>India, Malaysia renew pledges to boost trade, collaboration</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>印度与马来西亚重申推动贸易与合作的承诺</h3>
</div><p>The Election Commission removed about nine million names from the rolls, saying the move was aimed at removing duplicate entries and illegal migrants. Opposition groups alleged that Modi’s Hindu-nationalist party used the exercise to target mainly poor and Muslim voters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>选举委员会从选民名单中删除了约九百万个名字，称此举旨在消除重复条目和非法移民。反对派团体指控莫迪的印度民族主义政党利用这一举措主要针对贫困和穆斯林选民。</p>
</div><p>“For the BJP, a loss in Bengal – despite an aggressive campaign and institutional advantages – would highlight the limits of its Hindutva-driven ideology and expansion strategy,” wrote Chetna Kumar, Bloomberg’s geoeconomics analyst for South Asia. “For Banerjee, the stakes are higher: retaining power is central to sustaining her national ambitions and positioning her as a credible challenger to Modi in 2029.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对于 BJP 来说，尽管进行了激进的竞选和制度优势，但在孟加拉的失利将凸显其以印度教民族主义为驱动的意识形态和扩张战略的局限性，” 彭博社南亚地缘经济分析师切特娜·库马尔写道。“对于班纳吉来说，赌注更高：保持权力对维持她的国家雄心和将她定位为 2029 年对莫迪的可信挑战者至关重要。”</p>
</div><p>The Election Commission will also release vote results for the states of Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which went to the polls in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>选举委员会还将公布在四月投票的阿萨姆邦、泰米尔纳德邦和喀拉拉邦的投票结果。</p>
</div><p>In neighbouring Assam, exit polls showed the BJP-led alliance was projected to win a third consecutive term, paving the way for Himanta Biswa Sarma to continue as chief minister. The party focused its campaign on security and illegal migration from neighbouring Bangladesh, while promising increased spending on development projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在邻近的阿萨姆邦，出口民调显示 BJP 领导的联盟预计将赢得第三个连续任期，为希曼塔·比斯瓦·萨尔马继续担任首席部长铺平道路。该党将其竞选重点放在安全和来自邻国孟加拉国的非法移民上，同时承诺增加对发展项目的支出。</p>
</div><p>Investors would be watching closely for results in Tamil Nadu, the opposition-controlled southern state, which is home to car factories, electronics manufacturing and key facilities for Apple’s iPhone production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者将密切关注泰米尔纳德邦的结果，该州由反对派控制，是汽车制造、电子制造和苹果 iPhone 生产的关键设施所在地。</p>
</div><p>The state is governed by Chief Minister MK Stalin, whose Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party was on track to retain power for the second consecutive time, most exit polls showed. The BJP is a minority partner in an alliance with the regional All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. It contested 27 seats, leaving the rest to its local ally and other partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该州由首席部长 MK·斯大林治理，他的德拉维达进步联盟党预计将连续第二次保持权力，大多数出口民调显示。BJP 是与地方的全印度安娜·德拉维达进步联盟的联盟中的少数合作伙伴。它竞选了 27 个席位，将其余席位留给地方盟友和其他合作伙伴。</p>
</div><p>Kerala has a history of switching governments in elections. Exit polls showed an alliance led by the Indian National Congress party defeating a coalition led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), for the first time since 2016. The BJP is a minor player in the state’s politics and failed to win a seat in the 2021 state elections. BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>喀拉拉邦在选举中有更换政府的历史。出口民调显示，由印度国民大会党领导的联盟首次击败由印度共产党（马克思主义）领导的联盟，自 2016 年以来首次。BJP 在该州的政治中是一个小角色，并未在 2021 年州选举中赢得任何席位。彭博社</p>
</div><p>Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解码亚洲通讯：您在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲的指南。点击此处注册以获取解码亚洲通讯。送到您的邮箱。免费。</p>
</div>

莫迪瞄准里程碑式的胜利，印度关键邦开始计票