<p>[法兰克福] 欧洲央行（ECB）周一（5 月 4 日）的一项调查显示，欧元区公司正在预期类似于新冠疫情后出现的新一轮通胀风险。</p>
<p>如果伊朗的战争持续数月，导致燃料、氢气和氦气的供应中断。</p>
<p>中央银行在周四维持利率不变，但讨论了加息以应对飙升的通胀。</p>
<p>它还暗示可能在 6 月开始提高借贷成本。</p>
<p>欧洲央行对大型公司的季度调查发现，航空旅行、物流、化工、塑料和包装行业的公司已经提高了价格，通常是两位数的百分比，或者宣布了涨价。</p>
<p>这些涨幅反映了自冲突开始以来油价的飙升。</p>
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<p>但更广泛的价格传导——对欧洲央行政策更为相关——可能比 2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时更加渐进，因为大型公司已对能源价格波动进行了保护。</p>
<p>欧洲央行表示：“这种对冲在短期内应能在一定程度上限制影响，因为这些公司的能源价格上涨的传导不那么直接，主要或仅通过寻求更高输入价格的小型未对冲供应商。”</p>
<p>然而，如果战争及霍尔木兹海峡的相关干扰没有尽快解决，公司预计将面临类似于 2022 年至 2023 年所见的新一轮通胀风险。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p></p>
<h3>欧元区价格在战争第二个月预计将大幅上涨</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/893a15e38c55af8c89a27bc2a7f0cb27ecf692973c168b6bb37f6af4e3a4dfde/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/893a15e38c55af8c89a27bc2a7f0cb27ecf692973c168b6bb37f6af4e3a4dfde/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>国际货币基金组织预计欧洲央行将在 2026 年加息半个百分点</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/56c081fff4df0736a2644def1bda544ce78690dbda58ae2315740e6f2d6b3d35/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/56c081fff4df0736a2644def1bda544ce78690dbda58ae2315740e6f2d6b3d35/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>欧洲央行表示消费者通胀预期在 3 月份急剧上升</h3>
<p>中央银行表示：“如果冲突持续数月而不是数周，霍尔木兹海峡仍然被封锁和/或对石油和天然气基础设施的进一步攻击，将导致全球短缺——不仅是燃料，还有许多需要石油衍生物制造的产品。”</p>
<p>在需要石油衍生物的产品中，欧洲央行提到了氢气和氦气。</p>
<p>与疫情后时期相比，它指出全球需求疲软，尤其是来自中国的需求，服务业未能如预期那样繁荣，以及财政支出的经济刺激水平较低等因素。</p>
<p>欧洲央行在 3 月 23 日至 4 月 1 日期间采访了 67 家非金融行业的公司。路透社</p>
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<p>根据欧洲中央银行（ECB）的一项调查，欧元区公司预见到可能出现类似于新冠疫情后时期的通货膨胀激增。这一预期与伊朗持续的战争有关，可能会扰乱燃料和氦气的供应。尽管 ECB 保持利率稳定，但可能会考虑在 6 月加息。航空旅行和物流等行业的公司已经大幅提高了价格。ECB 指出，持续的冲突可能导致全球燃料和依赖石油衍生品的产品短缺，尽管当前的对冲策略减轻了即时影响</p>

<p>[FRANKFURT] Eurozone companies are anticipating the risk of a new inflation surge akin to that which occurred after the Covid-19 pandemic, a European Central Bank (ECB) survey showed on Monday (May 4).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[法兰克福] 欧洲央行（ECB）周一（5 月 4 日）的一项调查显示，欧元区公司正在预期类似于新冠疫情后出现的新一轮通胀风险。</p>
</div><p>This is if the war in Iran lasts months, disrupting the supply of fuel, hydrogen and helium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果伊朗的战争持续数月，导致燃料、氢气和氦气的供应中断。</p>
</div><p>The central bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday but debated a hike to combat soaring inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央银行在周四维持利率不变，但讨论了加息以应对飙升的通胀。</p>
</div><p>It also signalled that it might start raising borrowing costs in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它还暗示可能在 6 月开始提高借贷成本。</p>
</div><p>The ECB’s quarterly survey of large companies found that those operating in air-travel, logistics, chemicals, plastics and packaging industries had already raised their prices, often by double-digit percentages, or announced hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行对大型公司的季度调查发现，航空旅行、物流、化工、塑料和包装行业的公司已经提高了价格，通常是两位数的百分比，或者宣布了涨价。</p>
</div><p>The increases reflect the surge in oil prices since the conflict started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些涨幅反映了自冲突开始以来油价的飙升。</p>
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</div><p>But a broader pass-through to other prices – more relevant for ECB policy – is likely to be more gradual than at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, because large companies have protected themselves against energy price swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但更广泛的价格传导——对欧洲央行政策更为相关——可能比 2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时更加渐进，因为大型公司已对能源价格波动进行了保护。</p>
</div><p>The ECB said: “This hedging should limit the impact somewhat in the short term, as the pass-through of higher energy prices for these firms was less direct, coming mainly or only via smaller, unhedged suppliers seeking higher input prices.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行表示：“这种对冲在短期内应能在一定程度上限制影响，因为这些公司的能源价格上涨的传导不那么直接，主要或仅通过寻求更高输入价格的小型未对冲供应商。”</p>
</div><p>If the war and the associated disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz are not resolved soon, however, companies anticipate the risk of a new burst of inflation similar to that seen in 2022 to 2023, it added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果战争及霍尔木兹海峡的相关干扰没有尽快解决，公司预计将面临类似于 2022 年至 2023 年所见的新一轮通胀风险。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a6977afd3b8cc13d234893a60c0b6f2df7833ded59bd8f02be7c97405fe41904/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a6977afd3b8cc13d234893a60c0b6f2df7833ded59bd8f02be7c97405fe41904?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Eurozone price spike seen surging higher in second month of war</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>欧元区价格在战争第二个月预计将大幅上涨</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/893a15e38c55af8c89a27bc2a7f0cb27ecf692973c168b6bb37f6af4e3a4dfde/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/893a15e38c55af8c89a27bc2a7f0cb27ecf692973c168b6bb37f6af4e3a4dfde?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>IMF expects ECB to raise rates by half a percentage point in 2026</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>国际货币基金组织预计欧洲央行将在 2026 年加息半个百分点</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/56c081fff4df0736a2644def1bda544ce78690dbda58ae2315740e6f2d6b3d35/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/56c081fff4df0736a2644def1bda544ce78690dbda58ae2315740e6f2d6b3d35?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>ECB says consumer inflation expectations rose sharply in March</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>欧洲央行表示消费者通胀预期在 3 月份急剧上升</h3>
</div><p>The central bank said: “A conflict lasting months rather than weeks, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked and/or further attacks on oil and gas infrastructure, would result in global shortages – not only of fuel but also of many products requiring oil derivatives for their manufacture.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央银行表示：“如果冲突持续数月而不是数周，霍尔木兹海峡仍然被封锁和/或对石油和天然气基础设施的进一步攻击，将导致全球短缺——不仅是燃料，还有许多需要石油衍生物制造的产品。”</p>
</div><p>Of the products requiring oil derivatives, the ECB cited hydrogen and helium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在需要石油衍生物的产品中，欧洲央行提到了氢气和氦气。</p>
</div><p>Compared with the post-pandemic period, it indicated weak global demand, especially from China, the absence of an expected boom in services and a lower level of economic stimulus from fiscal spending as mitigating factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与疫情后时期相比，它指出全球需求疲软，尤其是来自中国的需求，服务业未能如预期那样繁荣，以及财政支出的经济刺激水平较低等因素。</p>
</div><p>The ECB interviewed 67 companies outside the financial sector, mainly between Mar 23 and Apr 1. REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行在 3 月 23 日至 4 月 1 日期间采访了 67 家非金融行业的公司。路透社</p>
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Eurozone companies expect new inflation surge if war lasts months: ECB poll

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根据欧洲央行的调查，欧元区公司预计如果战争持续数月，通胀将再次上升