<p>对通货膨胀、违约和软件领域的人工智能驱动的颠覆的担忧，导致近期私募信贷市场出现压力，这促使摩根士丹利研究与领先的信贷首席执行官进行对话，他们认为人工智能是导致更大分散和波动的驱动因素，而不是在私募和杠杆贷款市场的广泛市场颠覆。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利首席信贷策略师 <strong>阿曼达·莱南</strong> 表示：&#34;虽然软件是私募信贷中最大的行业，但它也是广泛分散的杠杆贷款市场中最大的行业。因此，如果人工智能确实使大量软件公司失去中介地位，那么公共市场和私募市场都会受到影响。&#34;</p>
<p>她补充道，私募信贷在部署其干粉方面处于良好位置。然而，公共市场可能会保持波动，这可能会推动更多资本流入机会主义信贷策略。</p>
<p>莱南还强调，人工智能驱动的颠覆早已在私募信贷经理的雷达上，尽管其速度可能比预期加快。</p>
<p>她补充道：&#34;我主要认为私募和流动市场中的软件敞口是额外分散的催化剂，而不是广泛的市场颠覆。&#34;</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>Pantheon Drives $1 Billion Investment Into Audax Credit Portfolio</strong></p>
<h2>当前私募信贷压力 ‘不构成系统性风险’</h2>
<p>尽管 Oaktree 首席执行官 <strong>霍华德·马克斯</strong>、Ares 首席执行官 <strong>迈克尔·阿鲁赫提</strong>、Marathon 首席执行官 <strong>布鲁斯·理查兹</strong> 和摩根士丹利的莱南都一致认为当前的私募信贷压力&#34;不构成系统性风险&#34;，但他们对短期至中期的前景看法不一，报告指出。</p>
<p>阿鲁赫提表达了类似的观点，他表示自己并不特别担心软件敞口，并且这些担忧似乎&#34;被夸大了&#34;。</p>
<p>与此同时，理查兹预计软件修正将更加痛苦。私募市场中 23% 的贷款是软件贷款，理查兹表示这是&#34;任何标准下都过高的数字&#34;。他预计到 2027 年、2028 年和 2029 年，软件行业的违约率将达到&#34;极高的水平，违约率峰值为 15%，每年的违约率都将是两位数，软件贷款的损失率将在 70-100% 之间。&#34;</p>
<p>尽管对软件的担忧，理查兹表示他预计直接贷款将&#34;比以往任何时候都更大更强&#34;，因为修正将导致管理者纪律的回归。</p>
<p>马克斯保持谨慎，预计零售投资者在公开出售的私募资产基金的弱点显现时会更加小心。然而，他认为经历完整的信贷周期最终可能会为直接贷款和整体私募信贷创造一个更强大、更健康的环境。</p>
<p>专家们认为这些风险不是系统性的，指出压力集中在一个小的细分市场（非交易 BDC），有限的流动性和低杠杆降低了更广泛危机的可能性。专家们还强调了总体健康的信贷基本面，并认为近期的违约并不足以表明重大问题。</p>
<p>总体而言，尽管短期不确定性和不同的观点，执行官们认为私募信贷将保持韧性并继续增长，可能在当前挑战后变得更强。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>SEC Is 'Closely Monitoring' Private Credit Pressures: Chairman Atkins</strong></p>
<p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

高盛

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<p>高盛研究指出，由于通货膨胀、违约和人工智能对软件的影响，私人信贷市场面临担忧。首席信用策略师阿曼达·莱南指出，尽管软件是私人信贷中的一个主要领域，但其风险暴露可能导致波动性增加，而不是广泛的破坏。领先信贷公司的首席执行官们一致认为，目前的压力并不构成系统性风险，尽管对前景的看法各不相同。尽管存在不确定性，他们相信私人信贷将保持韧性，并可能在当前挑战中变得更强</p>

<p>Concerns over inflation, defaults, and AI-driven disruption in software have fueled recent stress in private credit markets, prompting Goldman Sachs Research to speak with leading credit CEOs, who see AI as a driver of greater dispersion and volatility rather than broad market disruption across private and leveraged loan markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对通货膨胀、违约和软件领域的人工智能驱动的颠覆的担忧，导致近期私募信贷市场出现压力，这促使摩根士丹利研究与领先的信贷首席执行官进行对话，他们认为人工智能是导致更大分散和波动的驱动因素，而不是在私募和杠杆贷款市场的广泛市场颠覆。</p>
</div><p>&#34;While software is the largest sector in private credit, it's also the largest in the broadly syndicated leveraged loan market. So, if AI does disintermediate a significant share of software firms, both the public and private markets would be impacted,&#34; Goldman Sachs chief credit strategist <strong>Amanda Lynam</strong> said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利首席信贷策略师 <strong>阿曼达·莱南</strong> 表示：&#34;虽然软件是私募信贷中最大的行业，但它也是广泛分散的杠杆贷款市场中最大的行业。因此，如果人工智能确实使大量软件公司失去中介地位，那么公共市场和私募市场都会受到影响。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Private credit is well-positioned to deploy its dry powder, she added. Public markets, however, are likely to remain volatile, potentially driving more capital into opportunistic credit strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她补充道，私募信贷在部署其干粉方面处于良好位置。然而，公共市场可能会保持波动，这可能会推动更多资本流入机会主义信贷策略。</p>
</div><p>Lynam also emphasized that AI-driven disruption has long been on the radar of private credit managers, though its pace may be accelerating faster than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>莱南还强调，人工智能驱动的颠覆早已在私募信贷经理的雷达上，尽管其速度可能比预期加快。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I largely view the software exposure in both private and liquid markets as a catalyst for additional dispersion, not widespread market disruption,&#34; she added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她补充道：&#34;我主要认为私募和流动市场中的软件敞口是额外分散的催化剂，而不是广泛的市场颠覆。&#34;</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Pantheon Drives $1 Billion Investment Into Audax Credit Portfolio</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>Pantheon Drives $1 Billion Investment Into Audax Credit Portfolio</strong></p>
</div><h2>Current Private Credit Stresses ‘Don’t Pose Systemic Risk’</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>当前私募信贷压力 ‘不构成系统性风险’</h2>
</div><p>While Oaktree CEO <strong>Howard Marks,</strong> Ares' CEO <strong>Michael Arougheti,</strong> Marathon's CEO <strong>Bruce Richards</strong> and Goldman's Lynam all agreed that the current private credit stresses &#34;don't pose systemic risk,&#34; they disagree on the near-to-medium term outlook, the report stated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Oaktree 首席执行官 <strong>霍华德·马克斯</strong>、Ares 首席执行官 <strong>迈克尔·阿鲁赫提</strong>、Marathon 首席执行官 <strong>布鲁斯·理查兹</strong> 和摩根士丹利的莱南都一致认为当前的私募信贷压力&#34;不构成系统性风险&#34;，但他们对短期至中期的前景看法不一，报告指出。</p>
</div><p>Arougheti echoed similar views, saying he isn't particularly worried about software exposure and that the concerns appear &#34;overdone.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿鲁赫提表达了类似的观点，他表示自己并不特别担心软件敞口，并且这些担忧似乎&#34;被夸大了&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Richards expects a software correction to be more painful. 23% of the private market is software loans, which Richards says is an &#34;excessive figure&#34; by any standard. He expects that we will see &#34;incredibly high software sector default rates in 2027, 2028, and 2029, with peak defaults of 15% and double-digit default rates in each of those years and software loan loss rates in the 70-100% range.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，理查兹预计软件修正将更加痛苦。私募市场中 23% 的贷款是软件贷款，理查兹表示这是&#34;任何标准下都过高的数字&#34;。他预计到 2027 年、2028 年和 2029 年，软件行业的违约率将达到&#34;极高的水平，违约率峰值为 15%，每年的违约率都将是两位数，软件贷款的损失率将在 70-100% 之间。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Despite concerns about software, Richards said he expects direct lending to emerge &#34;bigger and stronger than ever&#34; as the correction will lead to a return of manager discipline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管对软件的担忧，理查兹表示他预计直接贷款将&#34;比以往任何时候都更大更强&#34;，因为修正将导致管理者纪律的回归。</p>
</div><p>Marks remains cautious, expecting retail investors to act more carefully as weaknesses in publicly sold private asset funds become visible. However, he believes that going through a full credit cycle could ultimately create a stronger, healthier environment for direct lending and private credit overall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马克斯保持谨慎，预计零售投资者在公开出售的私募资产基金的弱点显现时会更加小心。然而，他认为经历完整的信贷周期最终可能会为直接贷款和整体私募信贷创造一个更强大、更健康的环境。</p>
</div><p>The experts argue these risks are not systemic, noting that stress is concentrated in a small segment (non-traded BDCs), with limited liquidity and low leverage reducing the chance of a broader crisis. The experts also highlight generally healthy credit fundamentals and believe recent defaults are not large enough to signal major trouble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>专家们认为这些风险不是系统性的，指出压力集中在一个小的细分市场（非交易 BDC），有限的流动性和低杠杆降低了更广泛危机的可能性。专家们还强调了总体健康的信贷基本面，并认为近期的违约并不足以表明重大问题。</p>
</div><p>Overall, despite near-term uncertainty and differing views, the executives believe that private credit will remain resilient and continue growing, potentially emerging stronger after current challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，尽管短期不确定性和不同的观点，执行官们认为私募信贷将保持韧性并继续增长，可能在当前挑战后变得更强。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>SEC Is 'Closely Monitoring' Private Credit Pressures: Chairman Atkins</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>SEC Is 'Closely Monitoring' Private Credit Pressures: Chairman Atkins</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Software Risk Isn't Just A Private Credit Problem, Says Goldman Sachs Chief Credit Strategist

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高盛首席信贷策略师表示，软件风险不仅仅是私人信贷领域的问题