<p>[新德里] 两年前，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在全国选举中遭遇了令人失望的打击，自他上任以来首次未能赢得多数席位。</p>
<p>本周，他通过扩大其政党的支持基础，超越了传统的北部和西部强势地区，展示了他持久的受欢迎程度，并在此过程中淘汰了两位反对派最为激烈的领导人。这为他推动政治和经济议程提供了新的动力，包括他所领导的印度人民党（BJP）长期以来的目标。</p>
<p>莫迪表示，结果显示选民反对 “对少数群体的迁就和暴力”，同时誓言确保女性安全，为年轻人创造就业机会，并打击非法移民。</p>
<p>“印度人民投票支持稳定，因为战争和冲突在全球范围内造成不稳定，” 莫迪在新德里党总部的讲话中说道（5 月 4 日星期一）。“伊朗的战争影响着每个人，但尽管面临这些困难，印度表现良好。”</p>
<p>莫迪的 BJP 在东部邦西孟加拉州赢得了压倒性胜利，这是该地区几十年来首次获胜，结束了首席部长玛玛塔·班纳吉的 15 年统治。班纳吉是印度最高知名度的女性政治家，被视为唯一能够在 2029 年全国选举中对莫迪构成严峻挑战的反对派领导人。</p>
<p>在印度最工业化的州泰米尔纳德邦，苹果 iPhone 工厂的所在地，选民通过投票支持一位受欢迎的电影明星 C·约瑟夫·维杰，给首席部长 MK·斯大林（莫迪的另一位主要对手）带来了打击。尽管 BJP 在南部州是一个小角色，但斯大林的失利为莫迪在该地区的盟友与维杰可能的合作打开了大门，这一政府更迭将为南方制造中心的跨国公司带来不确定性。</p>
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<p>“凭借今天的胜利，BJP 占领了东印度最后一个主要的反对派堡垒，这是几十年来的目标，” 卡内基国际和平基金会南亚项目主任米兰·瓦伊什纳夫表示。他补充道，这使得班纳吉，莫迪最具攻击性的批评者和反对派联盟的关键人物，失去了影响力。</p>
<p>印度股市在周一上涨，受到区域科技股反弹和选举结果后乐观情绪的支持。与总理发展目标紧密相连的阿达尼集团公司股价大幅上涨，旗舰公司阿达尼企业的股价上涨了 3.2%，达到了自去年 11 月以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>自 2024 年全国选举以来，莫迪的政党及其盟友在州选举中稳步获胜，利用宗教和经济政策的结合来吸引选民。BJP 在马哈拉施特拉邦和哈里亚纳邦赢得胜利，并与联盟伙伴在比哈尔邦保持执政地位。该党还在超过二十年后赢得了国家首都德里的控制权。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/24faacb8502b213b261dbba0e45a99521146a8dec68cc66d7cd695208cdf5608/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/24faacb8502b213b261dbba0e45a99521146a8dec68cc66d7cd695208cdf5608/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>莫迪的政党在关键州的投票结果中早早领先</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>印度侨民投资者面临更少障碍，但分析师认为仍需更多措施来改善交易条件</h3>
<p>尽管莫迪在国会中仍面临限制，上个月未能推动关于增加女性席位的宪法修正案，但州选举的胜利可能会鼓励他的政党恢复有争议的改革，例如统一民法典。目前，婚姻、离婚、收养和继承等事务由多种宗教和习惯法管理。统一民法典将使这些事务纳入一个共同框架，这一举措受到包括穆斯林在内的少数群体的反对。</p>
<h2>‘回归主导地位’</h2>
<p>此外，莫迪希望举行州和全国选举的同步进行，他表示，持续的选举周期正在成为国家进步的障碍。反对派团体坚决反对这一变更，认为这将有利于执政党，且需要宪法修正案。</p>
<p>“在 2024 年全国选举后，单一政党的主导地位被打破，我们回到了联合政府，这确实在某种程度上增强了反对派的力量，” 布朗大学高级访问学者雅米尼·艾亚尔表示。“我们现在看到的是回归主导地位，特别是在西孟加拉州的胜利之后。”</p>
<p>莫迪是 BJP 在西孟加拉州选举中的明星竞选者，批评班纳吉政府对非法移民态度软弱，偏袒少数群体而非印度教多数，并未能有效打击腐败。他向女性选民和失业年轻人承诺提供更高的现金补助。</p>
<p>在投票前仅三周进行的大规模选民名单修订也可能影响了结果。为了清理注册名单，选举委员会从名单中删除了 900 万名字，约占该州选民的 12%。内政部长阿米特·沙阿表示，选民修订是为了剔除虚假选民和打击非法移民。反对派团体指责莫迪的印度民族主义政党利用这一举措主要针对贫困和穆斯林选民。</p>
<p>西孟加拉州在国家议会中具有重要的政治意义，为下议院贡献了第三大席位数。BJP 在该州的决定性胜利也增加了其在上议院的支持，该党在上议院已经拥有多数席位。</p>
<p>选举胜利意味着 “莫迪变得更强大，人们预计他会为 2029 年提出竞选要求”，这是下一次大选的时间，尼兰詹·穆克霍普达亚（Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay）说，他是几本关于印度政治的书籍的作者，包括一本关于莫迪的传记。“西孟加拉的胜利也为印度人民党（BJP）提供了推进待解决问题的机会，” 例如扩大国会规模和举行全国与地方选举的同步进行，而反对派对此持反对态度。</p>
<p>西孟加拉州传统上是反对派的堡垒，在班纳吉于 2011 年上台之前，左翼政党在这里执政了几十年。莫迪的胜利使他在明年印度最大州——北方邦的选举中处于强势地位，而两年前 BJP 在该州的支持度下降。</p>
<p>根据亚洲集团（Asia Group）印度主席阿肖克·马利克（Ashok Malik）的说法，这次胜利将使 BJP 在国会中拥有更多权力，“此外，莫迪政府的政策议程将在一个更有利的政治环境中找到支持。”</p>
<p>“西孟加拉在某种意义上是最后的边疆，” 他说。“在 2014 年莫迪上台时，BJP 在这里几乎缺席，而现在它主导了东印度。” 彭博社（BLOOMBERG）</p>
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安硕印度

华夏印度

2 倍做多 MSCI 印度指数 ETF - Direxion

印度 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在最近的州选举中取得了显著胜利，扩大了他所在政党的影响力，并罢免了关键的反对派领导人。印度人民党（BJP）在西孟加拉邦的胜利标志着历史性的转变，结束了玛玛塔·班纳吉（Mamata Banerjee）长达 15 年的统治。在泰米尔纳德邦，电影明星 C·约瑟夫·维杰（C Joseph Vijay）的当选预示着莫迪盟友可能面临的变化。莫迪强调了稳定和经济增长，而印度股市在选举结果公布后上涨。尽管在议会中面临挑战，这些胜利可能会复兴有争议的改革，并推动同时举行选举，反映出莫迪政党的回归主导地位</p>

<p>[NEW DELHI] Two years ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was dealt a humbling blow in national elections, failing to win a majority for the first time since he came to power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[新德里] 两年前，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在全国选举中遭遇了令人失望的打击，自他上任以来首次未能赢得多数席位。</p>
</div><p>This week, he showed his enduring popularity by expanding his party’s support base beyond its traditional strongholds in the north and west, eliminating two of the opposition’s most vocal leaders in the process. That gives him fresh momentum to push through his political and economic agenda, including longstanding goals of his Hindu-dominant Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，他通过扩大其政党的支持基础，超越了传统的北部和西部强势地区，展示了他持久的受欢迎程度，并在此过程中淘汰了两位反对派最为激烈的领导人。这为他推动政治和经济议程提供了新的动力，包括他所领导的印度人民党（BJP）长期以来的目标。</p>
</div><p>Modi said the results showed that voters opposed “appeasement of minorities and violence”, while vowing to ensure women’s safety, create jobs for young people and crack down on illegal migration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>莫迪表示，结果显示选民反对 “对少数群体的迁就和暴力”，同时誓言确保女性安全，为年轻人创造就业机会，并打击非法移民。</p>
</div><p>“The people of India voted for stability as wars and conflict create instability across the world,” Modi said on Monday (May 4) at the party’s headquarters in New Delhi. “The war in Iran affects everyone, but despite these difficult circumstances, India has fared well.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“印度人民投票支持稳定，因为战争和冲突在全球范围内造成不稳定，” 莫迪在新德里党总部的讲话中说道（5 月 4 日星期一）。“伊朗的战争影响着每个人，但尽管面临这些困难，印度表现良好。”</p>
</div><p>Modi’s BJP won a resounding victory in the eastern state of West Bengal, the first time it’s won in a region that’s been an opposition stronghold for decades. That ended the 15-year rule of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, India’s highest-profile female politician, who was seen as the only opposition leader capable of mounting a serious challenge against Modi in the 2029 national elections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>莫迪的 BJP 在东部邦西孟加拉州赢得了压倒性胜利，这是该地区几十年来首次获胜，结束了首席部长玛玛塔·班纳吉的 15 年统治。班纳吉是印度最高知名度的女性政治家，被视为唯一能够在 2029 年全国选举中对莫迪构成严峻挑战的反对派领导人。</p>
</div><p>In Tamil Nadu, India’s most industrialised state and home to Apple’s iPhone plants, voters delivered a blow to chief minister MK Stalin, another key Modi rival, by voting in a popular movie star, C Joseph Vijay. Although the BJP is a minor player in the southern state, Stalin’s loss opens the door for Modi’s allies in the region to possibly align with Vijay, a change in government that would raise uncertainty for multinationals in the southern manufacturing hub.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在印度最工业化的州泰米尔纳德邦，苹果 iPhone 工厂的所在地，选民通过投票支持一位受欢迎的电影明星 C·约瑟夫·维杰，给首席部长 MK·斯大林（莫迪的另一位主要对手）带来了打击。尽管 BJP 在南部州是一个小角色，但斯大林的失利为莫迪在该地区的盟友与维杰可能的合作打开了大门，这一政府更迭将为南方制造中心的跨国公司带来不确定性。</p>
</div><h3>Navigate Asia in  a new global order</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
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</div><p>“With today’s victory, the BJP captures the last major opposition fortress in eastern India, an objective decades in the making,” said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It neutralises Banerjee, Modi’s most combative critic and a linchpin of the opposition alliance, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“凭借今天的胜利，BJP 占领了东印度最后一个主要的反对派堡垒，这是几十年来的目标，” 卡内基国际和平基金会南亚项目主任米兰·瓦伊什纳夫表示。他补充道，这使得班纳吉，莫迪最具攻击性的批评者和反对派联盟的关键人物，失去了影响力。</p>
</div><p>Indian stocks climbed on Monday, supported by a broader regional tech-led rally and optimism after the election results. Adani Group companies, which have aligned themselves closely with the prime minister’s development goals, jumped, with flagship Adani Enterprises rising 3.2 per cent to its highest level since November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度股市在周一上涨，受到区域科技股反弹和选举结果后乐观情绪的支持。与总理发展目标紧密相连的阿达尼集团公司股价大幅上涨，旗舰公司阿达尼企业的股价上涨了 3.2%，达到了自去年 11 月以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Since the 2024 national elections, Modi’s party and its allies have made steady gains in state elections, using a mix of religion and economic policy to lure voters. The BJP secured victories in Maharashtra and Haryana, and retained power in Bihar with coalition partners. The party also won control of the national capital, Delhi, after more than two decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2024 年全国选举以来，莫迪的政党及其盟友在州选举中稳步获胜，利用宗教和经济政策的结合来吸引选民。BJP 在马哈拉施特拉邦和哈里亚纳邦赢得胜利，并与联盟伙伴在比哈尔邦保持执政地位。该党还在超过二十年后赢得了国家首都德里的控制权。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/24faacb8502b213b261dbba0e45a99521146a8dec68cc66d7cd695208cdf5608/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/24faacb8502b213b261dbba0e45a99521146a8dec68cc66d7cd695208cdf5608?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Modi’s party takes early lead in vote results from key state</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>莫迪的政党在关键州的投票结果中早早领先</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Fewer hurdles for Indian diaspora investors, but more needed to sweeten the deal: analysts</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>印度侨民投资者面临更少障碍，但分析师认为仍需更多措施来改善交易条件</h3>
</div><p>While Modi still faces restraints in parliament, seen by his inability last month to push through a constitutional amendment on giving women more seats in the chamber, the state election victories may encourage his party to revive contentious reforms such as the uniform civil code. Currently, matters of marriage, divorce, adoption and inheritance are governed by multiple religious and customary laws. A uniform civil code would bring them under a common framework, a move opposed by minority groups, including Muslims.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管莫迪在国会中仍面临限制，上个月未能推动关于增加女性席位的宪法修正案，但州选举的胜利可能会鼓励他的政党恢复有争议的改革，例如统一民法典。目前，婚姻、离婚、收养和继承等事务由多种宗教和习惯法管理。统一民法典将使这些事务纳入一个共同框架，这一举措受到包括穆斯林在内的少数群体的反对。</p>
</div><h2>‘Return to dominance’</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>‘回归主导地位’</h2>
</div><p>Then there is Modi’s desire to hold simultaneous state and national elections, saying the constant poll cycles are becoming an impediment to the nation’s progress. Opposition groups are staunchly opposed to the change, which would require a constitutional amendment, concerned that it would favour the ruling party in the polls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，莫迪希望举行州和全国选举的同步进行，他表示，持续的选举周期正在成为国家进步的障碍。反对派团体坚决反对这一变更，认为这将有利于执政党，且需要宪法修正案。</p>
</div><p>“After the 2024 national elections, the single-party dominance had broken and we were back to coalition governments and that certainly did empower the opposition to some degree,” said Yamini Aiyar, a senior visiting fellow at Brown University. “What we are seeing now is a return to dominance, particularly after the victory in West Bengal.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在 2024 年全国选举后，单一政党的主导地位被打破，我们回到了联合政府，这确实在某种程度上增强了反对派的力量，” 布朗大学高级访问学者雅米尼·艾亚尔表示。“我们现在看到的是回归主导地位，特别是在西孟加拉州的胜利之后。”</p>
</div><p>Modi was the star campaigner for the Hindu-nationalist BJP in the West Bengal election, criticising Banerjee’s government for being soft on illegal migration, favouring minorities over the Hindu majority, and failing to tackle corruption. He targeted women voters and unemployed young people with promises of higher cash handouts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>莫迪是 BJP 在西孟加拉州选举中的明星竞选者，批评班纳吉政府对非法移民态度软弱，偏袒少数群体而非印度教多数，并未能有效打击腐败。他向女性选民和失业年轻人承诺提供更高的现金补助。</p>
</div><p>Large-scale voter roll revisions just three weeks before the polls likely also influenced the results. To clean up the registered roll, the Election Commission removed nine million names, or almost 12 per cent of voters in the state, from the list. Home Minister Amit Shah said that the voter revision was to weed out fake voters and combat illegal migrants. Opposition groups alleged that Modi’s Hindu-nationalist party used the exercise to target mainly poor and Muslim voters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投票前仅三周进行的大规模选民名单修订也可能影响了结果。为了清理注册名单，选举委员会从名单中删除了 900 万名字，约占该州选民的 12%。内政部长阿米特·沙阿表示，选民修订是为了剔除虚假选民和打击非法移民。反对派团体指责莫迪的印度民族主义政党利用这一举措主要针对贫困和穆斯林选民。</p>
</div><p>West Bengal is politically significant in the national parliament, contributing the third-largest number of seats in the lower house. The BJP’s decisive win in the state also increases its support in the upper house of the parliament, where it already holds a majority.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西孟加拉州在国家议会中具有重要的政治意义，为下议院贡献了第三大席位数。BJP 在该州的决定性胜利也增加了其在上议院的支持，该党在上议院已经拥有多数席位。</p>
</div><p>The election win means “Modi emerges much stronger and one expects him to mount his claim for 2029”, when the next general election is due, said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an author of several books on Indian politics, including a biography about Modi. “The Bengal victory also provides an opportunity for the BJP to move ahead with pending issues,” such as expanding the size of parliament and holding simultaneous national and regional elections, which opposition groups are against.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>选举胜利意味着 “莫迪变得更强大，人们预计他会为 2029 年提出竞选要求”，这是下一次大选的时间，尼兰詹·穆克霍普达亚（Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay）说，他是几本关于印度政治的书籍的作者，包括一本关于莫迪的传记。“西孟加拉的胜利也为印度人民党（BJP）提供了推进待解决问题的机会，” 例如扩大国会规模和举行全国与地方选举的同步进行，而反对派对此持反对态度。</p>
</div><p>West Bengal has traditionally been a holdout for the opposition and was governed by leftist parties for decades before Banerjee came to power in 2011. Modi’s victory puts him in a strong position ahead of elections next year in Uttar Pradesh, India’s biggest state, where the BJP’s support waned two years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西孟加拉州传统上是反对派的堡垒，在班纳吉于 2011 年上台之前，左翼政党在这里执政了几十年。莫迪的胜利使他在明年印度最大州——北方邦的选举中处于强势地位，而两年前 BJP 在该州的支持度下降。</p>
</div><p>The win will give the BJP more power in the parliament and “beyond that, the policy agenda of the Modi government will find a more enabling political environment,” according to Ashok Malik, India chair at the Asia Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据亚洲集团（Asia Group）印度主席阿肖克·马利克（Ashok Malik）的说法，这次胜利将使 BJP 在国会中拥有更多权力，“此外，莫迪政府的政策议程将在一个更有利的政治环境中找到支持。”</p>
</div><p>“West Bengal was, in some sense, the last frontier,” he said. “Largely absent here in 2014, when Modi came to power, the BJP now dominates eastern India.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“西孟加拉在某种意义上是最后的边疆，” 他说。“在 2014 年莫迪上台时，BJP 在这里几乎缺席，而现在它主导了东印度。” 彭博社（BLOOMBERG）</p>
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莫迪在州选举中取得重大胜利，关键对手被击败