<p>作者：Nimesh Vora</p>
<p>孟买，5 月 5 日（路透社）——由于油价上涨，印度卢比在周二面临跌至历史低点的风险，这一压力点在过去几周持续削弱了该货币。</p>
<p>交易员预计，卢比将在 95.25 到 95.30 区间开盘。周一卢比收于 95.0875，距离上周创下的历史低点 95.33 并不远。</p>
<p>由于伊朗加大军事行动，周一布伦特原油 7 月期货价格飙升近 6%，伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡袭击多艘船只，并在阿联酋的一个石油港口引发火灾。</p>
<p>伊朗的行动威胁到与美国脆弱的停火协议，此前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普承诺美国海军将确保霍尔木兹海峡的通行。这一承诺与冲突自四周前达成停火以来的最大升级相吻合。</p>
<p>ANZ 银行在一份报告中表示，紧张局势的重新升级可能会阻止船东考虑通过霍尔木兹海峡的运输，这一动态将使油价保持在高位。</p>
<p>持续的高油价仍然是卢比的一个关键脆弱点。自两个月前冲突开始以来，原油价格的上涨恶化了印度的贸易条件，并推动了持续的美元需求，使得石油成为对该货币施加压力的主要来源，并促使印度储备银行在直接干预的基础上采取额外措施。</p>
<p>“一切都与石油有关，石油，还是石油，” 一家私营银行的货币交易员表示。他说，除非原油价格大幅回落，否则卢比不太可能看到任何实质性的缓解。</p>
<p>来自石油公司的持续每日美元需求对该货币造成压力，这反过来又使出口商不愿意对冲，同时促使其他进口商增加对冲，银行家们指出。</p>
<p>所有这一切发生在资本流入几乎缺失的情况下，使得卢比几乎没有压力释放的阀门，交易员表示。</p>
<p>（报道：Nimesh Vora；编辑：Janane Venkatraman）</p>

西方石油

英国石油

<p>印度卢比面临对美元创历史新低的风险，原因是油价上涨，而这一情况因霍尔木兹海峡近期的军事行动而加剧。预计卢比将以 95.25 到 95.30 之间的价格开盘，接近其之前的低点 95.33。油价上涨增加了对美元的需求，给卢比施加了压力，而资本流入仍然较低，限制了卢比的缓解选项。交易员强调，当前局势受到油市动态的严重影响</p>

<p>By Nimesh Vora</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Nimesh Vora</p>
</div><p>MUMBAI, May 5 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is vulnerable to slipping to a lifetime low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday on higher ‌oil prices, reinforcing a pressure point that has persistently undermined the currency ‌over the last several weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>孟买，5 月 5 日（路透社）——由于油价上涨，印度卢比在周二面临跌至历史低点的风险，这一压力点在过去几周持续削弱了该货币。</p>
</div><p>The rupee is expected to open in the 95.25 to 95.30 range, per ​traders. It settled at 95.0875 on Monday, not too far from the all-time low of 95.33 hit last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员预计，卢比将在 95.25 到 95.30 区间开盘。周一卢比收于 95.0875，距离上周创下的历史低点 95.33 并不远。</p>
</div><p>Brent crude July futures surged nearly 6% on Monday after Iran stepped up military action, striking multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and igniting a ‌fire at a UAE oil ⁠port.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于伊朗加大军事行动，周一布伦特原油 7 月期货价格飙升近 6%，伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡袭击多艘船只，并在阿联酋的一个石油港口引发火灾。</p>
</div><p>Iran's actions threaten a fragile ceasefire with the U.S., coming after U.S. President Donald Trump pledged that the U.S. Navy would ensure ⁠passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The pledge has coincided with the conflict's most significant escalation since a truce was reached four weeks ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗的行动威胁到与美国脆弱的停火协议，此前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普承诺美国海军将确保霍尔木兹海峡的通行。这一承诺与冲突自四周前达成停火以来的最大升级相吻合。</p>
</div><p>The renewed spike in tensions is likely ​to deter ​ship owners from considering transit through the ​Strait of Hormuz, ANZ Bank said ‌in a note, a dynamic that would keep oil prices higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ANZ 银行在一份报告中表示，紧张局势的重新升级可能会阻止船东考虑通过霍尔木兹海峡的运输，这一动态将使油价保持在高位。</p>
</div><p>Sustained higher oil prices remains a key vulnerability for the rupee. The rally in crude since the conflict began over two months ago has worsened India's terms of trade and driven persistent dollar demand, making oil the principal source of pressure on the currency and prompting ‌the Reserve Bank of India to supplement direct ​intervention with additional steps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续的高油价仍然是卢比的一个关键脆弱点。自两个月前冲突开始以来，原油价格的上涨恶化了印度的贸易条件，并推动了持续的美元需求，使得石油成为对该货币施加压力的主要来源，并促使印度储备银行在直接干预的基础上采取额外措施。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's all about oil, oil and ​oil,&#34; a currency trader at ​a private sector bank said. The rupee is unlikely to see ‌any meaningful relief unless there is a ​sizeable cooling in crude ​prices, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“一切都与石油有关，石油，还是石油，” 一家私营银行的货币交易员表示。他说，除非原油价格大幅回落，否则卢比不太可能看到任何实质性的缓解。</p>
</div><p>Persistent daily dollar demand from oil companies is weighing on the currency, which in turn is making exporters reluctant to hedge while prompting ​other importers to increase hedging, ‌bankers have highlighted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自石油公司的持续每日美元需求对该货币造成压力，这反过来又使出口商不愿意对冲，同时促使其他进口商增加对冲，银行家们指出。</p>
</div><p>All of this is happening when capital inflows are largely ​absent, leaving the rupee with very few pressure-release valves, the trader said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这一切发生在资本流入几乎缺失的情况下，使得卢比几乎没有压力释放的阀门，交易员表示。</p>
</div><p>(Reporting ​by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（报道：Nimesh Vora；编辑：Janane Venkatraman）</p>
</div>

卢比因长期受到石油拖累而面临创历史新低的风险