<p>花旗研究表示，周大福 (01929.HK) +0.590 (+5.443%) 空头头寸为 7093 万美元；比例为 35.900%。该公司发布了积极的盈利预警，预计 2026 财年的净利润将增长 45% 至 55%，与经纪人和市场共识预测一致。管理层将毛利率的扩大归因于黄金价格上涨、零售业务和固定价格珠宝的销售组合改善，以及谨慎的成本控制带来的经营杠杆。</p>
<p>该经纪人预测该集团 2027 财年的收入将增长 1%，较 2026 财年的 3% 增长放缓。在占集团收入 81% 的大陆市场，预计收入将下降 4%，而 2026 财年则增长 1%，主要由于同店销售增长放缓和持续的门店关闭。对于香港、澳门和海外市场，预计收入将增长 21%，较 2026 财年的 16% 增长加速，主要受益于有利的汇率变动和增值税政策变化后价格差距的扩大，推动同店销售增长加快。</p>
<p>花旗预计周大福的毛利率将在 2027 财年同比下降 5 个百分点至 27.6%，主要假设黄金价格上涨放缓带来的负面影响。由于毛利率收缩，经营利润率将从 20.3% 下降 5 个百分点至 15.2%。对冲损失预计将从收入的 6.7% 缩小至 1.3%，而融资成本将保持大致稳定。因此，预计 2027 财年的净利润率将同比保持稳定。</p>
<p>尽管投资者担心周大福的毛利率可能已达到峰值，但花旗认为这些风险在股价中已得到较大反映。该股目前的预测市盈率为 12 倍，股息收益率为 7%，显示出吸引人的估值。花旗维持对周大福的买入评级，目标价为 16.7 港元。（hc/j）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026 年 5 月 6 日 16:25。）</p>
<p>本文由 AI 自动翻译，中文版本应视为权威版本。AASTOCKS.com Limited 不保证其准确性或完整性，并对因使用本翻译而产生的任何损害或损失不承担任何责任。</p>

周大福

<p>花旗研究维持对周大福的买入评级，尽管对毛利率达到峰值的担忧，但其估值仍具吸引力。公司预计 2026 财年的净利润将增长 45-55%，而 2027 财年的收入增长将放缓至 1%。大陆收入预计将下降 4%，而香港及海外市场可能增长 21%。该股票的前瞻市盈率为 12 倍，提供 7% 的股息收益率，显示出强劲的投资潜力。目标价定为 16.7 港元</p>

<p>Citi Research said CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK) +0.590 (+5.443%)  Short selling $70.93M; Ratio 35.900%  issued a positive profit alert, expecting net profit for FY2026 to increase by 45% to 55%, in line with the brokers and market consensus forecasts. Management attributed the expansion in gross margin to rising gold prices, improved sales mix in retail operations and fixed-price jewellery, as well as operating leverage from prudent cost control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗研究表示，周大福 (01929.HK) +0.590 (+5.443%) 空头头寸为 7093 万美元；比例为 35.900%。该公司发布了积极的盈利预警，预计 2026 财年的净利润将增长 45% 至 55%，与经纪人和市场共识预测一致。管理层将毛利率的扩大归因于黄金价格上涨、零售业务和固定价格珠宝的销售组合改善，以及谨慎的成本控制带来的经营杠杆。</p>
</div><p>The broker forecast the groups revenue to grow by 1% in FY2027, slowing from 3% growth in FY2026. In the mainland market, which accounts for 81% of group revenue, revenue is expected to decline by 4%, compared with 1% growth in FY2026, mainly due to slower same-store sales growth and continued store closures. For Hong Kong, Macau and overseas markets, revenue is projected to increase by 21%, accelerating from 16% growth in FY2026, primarily benefiting from favourable exchange rate movements and a widening price gap following changes in value-added tax policies, driving faster same-store sales growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该经纪人预测该集团 2027 财年的收入将增长 1%，较 2026 财年的 3% 增长放缓。在占集团收入 81% 的大陆市场，预计收入将下降 4%，而 2026 财年则增长 1%，主要由于同店销售增长放缓和持续的门店关闭。对于香港、澳门和海外市场，预计收入将增长 21%，较 2026 财年的 16% 增长加速，主要受益于有利的汇率变动和增值税政策变化后价格差距的扩大，推动同店销售增长加快。</p>
</div><p>Citi estimated that CHOW TAI FOOKs gross margin will decline by 5 ppts YoY to 27.6% in FY2027, mainly assuming a negative impact from slower increases in gold prices. Due to margin contraction, operating margin will fall by 5 ppts from 20.3% to 15.2%. Hedging losses are expected to narrow from 6.7% of revenue to 1.3%, while financing costs will remain broadly stable. As a result, net profit margin in FY2027 is projected to remain stable YoY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗预计周大福的毛利率将在 2027 财年同比下降 5 个百分点至 27.6%，主要假设黄金价格上涨放缓带来的负面影响。由于毛利率收缩，经营利润率将从 20.3% 下降 5 个百分点至 15.2%。对冲损失预计将从收入的 6.7% 缩小至 1.3%，而融资成本将保持大致稳定。因此，预计 2027 财年的净利润率将同比保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>Although investors are concerned that CHOW TAI FOOKs gross margin may have peaked, Citi believes such risks are largely reflected in the share price. The stock is currently trading at a forecast forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12x, with a dividend yield of 7%, indicating an attractive valuation. Citi maintained its Buy rating on CHOW TAI FOOK with a TP of HKD16.7. (hc/j)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-06 16:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管投资者担心周大福的毛利率可能已达到峰值，但花旗认为这些风险在股价中已得到较大反映。该股目前的预测市盈率为 12 倍，股息收益率为 7%，显示出吸引人的估值。花旗维持对周大福的买入评级，目标价为 16.7 港元。（hc/j）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026 年 5 月 6 日 16:25。）</p>
</div><p>This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文由 AI 自动翻译，中文版本应视为权威版本。AASTOCKS.com Limited 不保证其准确性或完整性，并对因使用本翻译而产生的任何损害或损失不承担任何责任。</p>
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花旗银行：周大福的初步业绩符合预期；估值具有吸引力，维持买入评级