<p>[吉隆坡] 马来西亚中央银行在周四（5 月 7 日）维持基准利率不变，警告称中东持续冲突对国内增长和通胀构成风险。</p>
<p>马来西亚国家银行（BNM）在连续第五次政策会议上将隔夜政策利率维持在 2.75%，这一点得到了路透社调查的 28 位经济学家的预测支持。它上次降息是在 2025 年 7 月。</p>
<p>BNM 表示，目前的货币政策立场被认为是 “适当的，并与持续的价格稳定和可持续经济增长的前景一致。”</p>
<p>最新指标显示，尽管对中东冲突的持续时间和严重性存在不确定性，但马来西亚在第一季度的增长势头仍在继续。</p>
<p>“尽管如此，马来西亚强大的基本面将继续支撑经济的韧性，” 中央银行表示。</p>
<p>马来西亚股市和林吉特在利率决定后基本保持不变。</p>
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<p>预计马来西亚经济在 2026 年将增长 4% 至 5%，低于去年的 5.2% 的扩张。</p>
<p>初步估计显示，第一季度国内生产总值同比增长 5.3%，最终数据将于 5 月 15 日发布。</p>
<p>BNM 表示，由于伊朗战争导致的全球商品价格上涨预计将增加国内成本压力，尽管影响应保持在可控范围内。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/afa18eaa77504db17528e6d46aaf024bce9269cc49f026dd32c12a2b74d63676/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/afa18eaa77504db17528e6d46aaf024bce9269cc49f026dd32c12a2b74d63676/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>马来西亚提高 2026 年增长展望，认为战争影响可控</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89c2cbb22ca285d3874f6fb532221a9d8d205861540b645e3fdba61ffe01af06/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89c2cbb22ca285d3874f6fb532221a9d8d205861540b645e3fdba61ffe01af06/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>马来西亚因中东风险暂不升级增长预期</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5209961e295e931d8c472e3def472a9e9816c6325365d6588230abb239420713/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5209961e295e931d8c472e3def472a9e9816c6325365d6588230abb239420713/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>马来西亚将利率维持在 2.75%，标示地缘政治风险</h3>
<p>它表示，2026 年第一季度的头条和核心通胀分别平均为 1.6% 和 2.1%。</p>
<p>大多数被调查的经济学家预测，全年政策利率将保持不变，仅有 22 位中有两位预计下季度将加息 25 个基点。</p>
<p>在一份报告中，牛津经济研究院表示，风险倾向于在下半年加息，“如果通胀通过更广泛的溢出效应，尤其是在食品方面，意外上升，或劳动力成本的传导更强。”</p>
<p>巴克莱的 Brian Tan 表示，油价上涨可能会迫使政府很快提高补贴的 RON95 运输燃料价格，从而导致通胀上升，而不会对增长造成进一步风险。</p>
<p>“这可能会促使中央银行逆转去年的降息，以帮助限制通胀压力的扩大，” 他说。</p>
<p>财政部表示，自 2 月底战争爆发以来，政府的补贴账单已膨胀十倍，达到每月约 70 亿令吉（27 亿新元）。路透社</p>
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HMYR

1560

<p>马来西亚国家银行在连续第五次会议上维持基准利率在 2.75% 不变，理由是中东冲突对国内增长和通胀构成风险。中央银行指出，尽管马来西亚经济显示出增长势头，但冲突带来的不确定性可能会影响前景。经济学家预计今年剩余时间内不会有利率变动，尽管一些人预见如果通胀意外上升，可能会加息。由于与冲突相关的全球商品价格上涨，政府的补贴支出显著增加</p>

<p>[KUALA LUMPUR] Malaysia’s central bank on Thursday (May 7) held its benchmark interest rate steady, warning of risks to domestic growth and inflation from the prolonged conflict in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[吉隆坡] 马来西亚中央银行在周四（5 月 7 日）维持基准利率不变，警告称中东持续冲突对国内增长和通胀构成风险。</p>
</div><p>Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained its overnight policy rate at 2.75 per cent for the fifth straight policy meeting, as predicted by all 28 economists polled by Reuters. It last cut rates in July 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马来西亚国家银行（BNM）在连续第五次政策会议上将隔夜政策利率维持在 2.75%，这一点得到了路透社调查的 28 位经济学家的预测支持。它上次降息是在 2025 年 7 月。</p>
</div><p>BNM said its current monetary policy stance was considered to be “appropriate and consistent with the outlook of continued price stability and sustainable economic growth.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BNM 表示，目前的货币政策立场被认为是 “适当的，并与持续的价格稳定和可持续经济增长的前景一致。”</p>
</div><p>Latest indicators point to continued growth momentum in Malaysia in the first quarter, though uncertainty over the duration and severity of the Middle East conflict could weigh on the outlook, it said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新指标显示，尽管对中东冲突的持续时间和严重性存在不确定性，但马来西亚在第一季度的增长势头仍在继续。</p>
</div><p>“Nevertheless, Malaysia’s strong fundamentals will continue to underpin the economy’s resilience,” the central bank said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“尽管如此，马来西亚强大的基本面将继续支撑经济的韧性，” 中央银行表示。</p>
</div><p>Malaysian stocks and the ringgit were largely unchanged following the rate decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马来西亚股市和林吉特在利率决定后基本保持不变。</p>
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</div><p>Malaysia’s economy is expected to grow between 4 to 5 per cent in 2026, easing from the 5.2 per cent expansion last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计马来西亚经济在 2026 年将增长 4% 至 5%，低于去年的 5.2% 的扩张。</p>
</div><p>Advance estimates showed gross domestic product rose 5.3 per cent year on year in the first quarter, with final data to be released on May 15.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初步估计显示，第一季度国内生产总值同比增长 5.3%，最终数据将于 5 月 15 日发布。</p>
</div><p>BNM said higher global commodity prices arising from the war in Iran were expected to raise domestic cost pressures, though the impact should remain contained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BNM 表示，由于伊朗战争导致的全球商品价格上涨预计将增加国内成本压力，尽管影响应保持在可控范围内。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/afa18eaa77504db17528e6d46aaf024bce9269cc49f026dd32c12a2b74d63676/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/afa18eaa77504db17528e6d46aaf024bce9269cc49f026dd32c12a2b74d63676?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Malaysia raises 2026 growth outlook, sees war impact contained</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>马来西亚提高 2026 年增长展望，认为战争影响可控</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89c2cbb22ca285d3874f6fb532221a9d8d205861540b645e3fdba61ffe01af06/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/89c2cbb22ca285d3874f6fb532221a9d8d205861540b645e3fdba61ffe01af06?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Malaysia to hold off on growth upgrade on Middle East risks</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>马来西亚因中东风险暂不升级增长预期</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5209961e295e931d8c472e3def472a9e9816c6325365d6588230abb239420713/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5209961e295e931d8c472e3def472a9e9816c6325365d6588230abb239420713?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Malaysia holds interest rate at 2.75%, flags geopolitical risk</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>马来西亚将利率维持在 2.75%，标示地缘政治风险</h3>
</div><p>Headline and core inflation averaged 1.6 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively in the first quarter of 2026, it said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它表示，2026 年第一季度的头条和核心通胀分别平均为 1.6% 和 2.1%。</p>
</div><p>Most economists polled forecast no change to the policy rate for the rest of the year, with just two of 22 expecting a 25 basis point hike in the next quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数被调查的经济学家预测，全年政策利率将保持不变，仅有 22 位中有两位预计下季度将加息 25 个基点。</p>
</div><p>In a note, Oxford Economics said risks were skewed towards a hike in the second half “if inflation surprises to the upside through broader spillovers, especially in food, or a stronger pass-through of labour costs.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一份报告中，牛津经济研究院表示，风险倾向于在下半年加息，“如果通胀通过更广泛的溢出效应，尤其是在食品方面，意外上升，或劳动力成本的传导更强。”</p>
</div><p>Barclays’ Brian Tan said higher oil prices would likely pressure the government to raise the price of the subsidised RON95 transport fuel soon, resulting in an uptick in inflation without further risks to growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴克莱的 Brian Tan 表示，油价上涨可能会迫使政府很快提高补贴的 RON95 运输燃料价格，从而导致通胀上升，而不会对增长造成进一步风险。</p>
</div><p>“This is likely to then encourage the central bank to reverse last year’s rate cut to help limit any broadening of inflation pressures,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这可能会促使中央银行逆转去年的降息，以帮助限制通胀压力的扩大，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>The government’s subsidy bill has ballooned tenfold to about RM7 billion (S$2.7 billion) a month since before the war’s outbreak in late February, the finance ministry has said. REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财政部表示，自 2 月底战争爆发以来，政府的补贴账单已膨胀十倍，达到每月约 70 亿令吉（27 亿新元）。路透社</p>
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Bank Negara Malaysia holds key rate steady, flags risks from Middle East crisis

- 马来西亚中央银行维持基准利率在 2.75% 不变，面临中东冲突风险。  
- 预计 2026 年经济增长 4% 至 5%，第一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.3%。  
- 商品价格上涨将增加国内成本压力，通胀预计在可控范围内。

马来西亚国家银行维持关键利率不变，并警示中东危机带来的风险