<h2 id="afcghteo9">NFP 关键点</h2><ul><li>NFP 报告预期：<strong>新增 65K 工作岗位</strong>，<strong>月度收入增长 0.3%</strong>，失业率为 <strong>4.3%。</strong></li><li>NFP 领先指标显示本月就业报告可能超出预期，整体就业增长可能在 <strong>110-150K</strong> 范围内。</li><li>欧元/美元在四月下半月回调后，过去几周显示出上涨的迹象。</li></ul><h2 id="zuvkj62g8">四月 NFP 报告何时发布？</h2><p>四月 NFP 报告将于 <strong>5 月 7 日星期五，东部时间 8:30</strong> 发布。</p><h2 id="sfp2auu2j">NFP 报告预期</h2><p>交易员和经济学家预计 NFP 报告将显示美国新增 <strong>65K 个净新工作岗位</strong>，平均时薪增长 <strong>0.3%（同比 3.8%）</strong>，U3 失业率为 <strong>4.3%。</strong></p><h2 id="fjvnorf8m">NFP 概述</h2><p>如果你在年初告诉交易员，除了对人工智能造成的就业置换的持续担忧外，美国还将与伊朗开战，能源价格将上涨超过 100%，他们会合理地认为就业增长会崩溃，美国经济可能会陷入衰退。</p><p>尽管存在这些持续的担忧，美国劳动力市场仍然相对健康，今年迄今每月平均新增约 70K 个工作岗位，足以使失业率自年初以来保持在历史低位 4.3%。现在就业市场面临最新考验，即四月 NFP 报告，交易员预计将延续过去一年左右的 “低招聘、低裁员” 模式：</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/4608f478a53db784c79c1486b67131d4?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="933" height="575" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/4608f478a53db784c79c1486b67131d4"/></figure><p><i>来源：StoneX</i></p><p>如上图所示，交易员基本上预期将再次出现稳定的就业报告，适度的就业增长，稳定的失业率，以及持续的温和工资增长。</p><p>结合在霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭的背景下，通胀加速超过美联储 2% 的目标，交易员基本上抹去了今年美联储再次降息的预期，CME 的 FedWatch 工具显示今年没有任何利率变化的概率超过 70%：</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/74d7de57921078014430edd874257c39?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1272" height="598" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/74d7de57921078014430edd874257c39"/></figure><p><i>来源：CME FedWatch</i></p><p>显然，交易员得出结论，即使凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh），特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席上任，进一步降息的理由在短期内也将面临艰难的挑战。</p><h2 id="ojyk0mvt">NFP 预测</h2><p>如常规读者所知，我们关注四个历史上可靠的领先指标，以帮助评估每份 NFP 报告：</p><ul><li>ISM 制造业就业子指数从上个月的 <strong>48.7</strong> 下滑至 <strong>46.4</strong>。</li><li>ISM 服务业就业子指数保持在 <strong>53.6</strong>，与上个月的 54.0 持平。</li><li>ADP 就业报告显示新增 <strong>109K</strong> 个工作岗位，高于上个月的 61K。</li><li>初次失业救济申请的 4 周移动平均降至 <strong>203K</strong>，低于上个月的 208K，处于历史低位。</li></ul><p>综合数据和我们的内部模型，<strong>领先指标显示本月就业报告可能超出预期，整体就业增长可能在 110-150K 范围内</strong>，尽管由于响应率有限，存在较大的不确定性。</p><p>无论如何，这份报告的月度波动 notoriously 难以预测，因此我们不会对任何预测（包括我们的）过于看重。与往常一样，报告的其他方面，包括备受关注的平均时薪数据和失业率，也将影响市场对发布的反应。</p><h2 id="o49322k8t">潜在的 NFP 市场反应</h2><figure class="table"><table><thead><tr><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> </td><td><strong>工资 &lt; 0.2% m/m</strong></td><td><strong>工资 0.2-0.4% m/m</strong></td><td><strong>工资 &gt; 0.4% m/m</strong></td></tr><tr><td><strong>&lt; 20K 工作岗位</strong></td><td>稍微看跌美元</td><td>稍微看跌美元</td><td>中性美元</td></tr><tr><td><strong>20-110K 工作岗位</strong></td><td>中性美元</td><td>中性美元</td><td>稍微看涨美元</td></tr><tr><td><strong>&gt; 110K 工作岗位</strong></td><td>中性美元</td><td>稍微看涨美元</td><td>看涨美元</td></tr></tbody></table></figure><p>从技术上讲，美元在与主要竞争对手的 3 个月区间底部附近交易，随着伊朗驱动的避险需求略有减弱。进一步的缓和可能会对美元施加压力，无论本月的就业报告显示什么。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></figure><h2 id="755sdjq1q">美元指数技术分析 – 欧元/美元 4 小时图</h2><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c90fede24ac7ea4e2c8608975eb72ef3?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1835" height="798" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c90fede24ac7ea4e2c8608975eb72ef3"/></figure><p><i>来源：</i> <i>TradingView</i> <i>, StoneX</i></p><p>如上图所示，全球交易最广泛的货币对在四月下半月回调后，过去几周显示出上涨的迹象。</p><p>欧元/美元在过去一周从逐渐降低的低点和高点转变为更高的低点和高点，可能为重新测试接近 1.1830 的 10 周高点奠定基础，低于预期的就业报告或霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放可能成为看涨的基本催化剂。若突破 1.1830 水平，可能会暴露出 1.1900 的整数关口或 1.1940 的长期斐波那契回撤作为未来的目标。</p><p>与此同时，强劲的就业报告或伊朗 “热战” 的恢复可能会对欧元/美元施加压力，并促使重新测试接近 1.1650 的短期 50% 斐波那契回撤，进入下周。</p><p><i>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</i></p><p><i>在 Twitter 上关注 Matt:</i> <i>@MWellerFX</i></p>

<p>即将发布的非农就业报告预计显示，美国新增 65,000 个就业岗位，平均时薪环比上涨 0.3%，失业率为 4.3%。领先指标表明，职位增长可能在 110,000 到 150,000 之间。尽管对人工智能导致的就业流失和地缘政治紧张局势存在担忧，但劳动力市场依然稳定。交易员预计美联储今年不会降息。欧元/美元货币对显示出复苏迹象，潜在的看涨催化剂取决于就业报告的结果</p>

<h2>NFP Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NFP 关键点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>NFP report expectations: <strong>+65K jobs</strong>, <strong>+0.3% m/m</strong> earnings, unemployment at <strong>4.3%.</strong></li>
<li>NFP leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s jobs report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the <strong>110-150K</strong> range.</li>
<li>EUR/USD is showing signs of turning higher over the last couple of weeks after pulling back in the latter half of April.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>NFP 报告预期：<strong>新增 65K 工作岗位</strong>，<strong>月度收入增长 0.3%</strong>，失业率为 <strong>4.3%。</strong></li>
<li>NFP 领先指标显示本月就业报告可能超出预期，整体就业增长可能在 <strong>110-150K</strong> 范围内。</li>
<li>欧元/美元在四月下半月回调后，过去几周显示出上涨的迹象。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>When is the April NFP Report?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>四月 NFP 报告何时发布？</h2>
</div><p>The April NFP report will be released on <strong>Friday, May 7, at 8:30 ET.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四月 NFP 报告将于 <strong>5 月 7 日星期五，东部时间 8:30</strong> 发布。</p>
</div><h2>NFP Report Expectations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NFP 报告预期</h2>
</div><p>Traders and economists expect the NFP report to show that the US created <strong>65K net new jobs</strong>, with average hourly earnings rising <strong>0.3% m/m (3.8% y/y)</strong> and the U3 unemployment rate at <strong>4.3%.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员和经济学家预计 NFP 报告将显示美国新增 <strong>65K 个净新工作岗位</strong>，平均时薪增长 <strong>0.3%（同比 3.8%）</strong>，U3 失业率为 <strong>4.3%。</strong></p>
</div><h2>NFP Overview</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NFP 概述</h2>
</div><p>If you had told traders at the start of the year that, in addition to the ongoing concerns about AI job displacement, the US would go to war with Iran and energy prices would surge 100%+, they would justifiably assume job growth would collapse and the US economy could tip into recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在年初告诉交易员，除了对人工智能造成的就业置换的持续担忧外，美国还将与伊朗开战，能源价格将上涨超过 100%，他们会合理地认为就业增长会崩溃，美国经济可能会陷入衰退。</p>
</div><p>Despite these ongoing concerns, the US labor market has remained relatively hale, adding an average of about 70K jobs per month so far this year, enough to keep the unemployment rate unchanged since the start of the year at the historically low level of 4.3%. Now the jobs market faces its latest test, the April NFP report, with traders expecting an extension of the “low hire, low fire” regime that has characterized the past year or so:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管存在这些持续的担忧，美国劳动力市场仍然相对健康，今年迄今每月平均新增约 70K 个工作岗位，足以使失业率自年初以来保持在历史低位 4.3%。现在就业市场面临最新考验，即四月 NFP 报告，交易员预计将延续过去一年左右的 “低招聘、低裁员” 模式：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: StoneX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：StoneX</em></p>
</div><p>As the graphic above shows, traders are essentially anticipating another steady jobs report, with modest job growth, stable unemployment, and continued gradual wage increases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上图所示，交易员基本上预期将再次出现稳定的就业报告，适度的就业增长，稳定的失业率，以及持续的温和工资增长。</p>
</div><p>Combined with accelerating inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target amidst the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, traders have essentially erased the expectation of another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, with the CME’s FedWatch tool showing a 70%+ probability of no changes to interest rates at all this year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结合在霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭的背景下，通胀加速超过美联储 2% 的目标，交易员基本上抹去了今年美联储再次降息的预期，CME 的 FedWatch 工具显示今年没有任何利率变化的概率超过 70%：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CME FedWatch</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CME FedWatch</em></p>
</div><p>Clearly, traders are coming to the conclusion that even when Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, comes aboard, the case for additional interest rate cuts will be an uphill battle any time soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，交易员得出结论，即使凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh），特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席上任，进一步降息的理由在短期内也将面临艰难的挑战。</p>
</div><h2>NFP Forecast</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NFP 预测</h2>
</div><p>As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each NFP report:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如常规读者所知，我们关注四个历史上可靠的领先指标，以帮助评估每份 NFP 报告：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing Employment subindex slipped to <strong>46.4</strong> from 48.7 last month.</li>
<li>The ISM Services Employment subindex held steady at <strong>53.6</strong> vs. 54.0 last month.</li>
<li>The ADP Employment report came in at <strong>109K</strong> jobs, up from last month’s 61K reading.</li>
<li>The 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell to <strong>203K</strong>, down from 208K last month to historically low levels.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>ISM 制造业就业子指数从上个月的 <strong>48.7</strong> 下滑至 <strong>46.4</strong>。</li>
<li>ISM 服务业就业子指数保持在 <strong>53.6</strong>，与上个月的 54.0 持平。</li>
<li>ADP 就业报告显示新增 <strong>109K</strong> 个工作岗位，高于上个月的 61K。</li>
<li>初次失业救济申请的 4 周移动平均降至 <strong>203K</strong>，低于上个月的 208K，处于历史低位。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Weighing the data and our internal models, <strong>the leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s jobs report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 110-150K range</strong>, albeit with a big band of uncertainty given the limited response rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合数据和我们的内部模型，<strong>领先指标显示本月就业报告可能超出预期，整体就业增长可能在 110-150K 范围内</strong>，尽管由于响应率有限，存在较大的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Regardless, the month-to-month fluctuations in this report are notoriously difficult to predict, so we wouldn’t put too much stock into any forecasts (including ours). As always, the other aspects of the release, including the closely-watched average hourly earnings figure and unemployment rate will also impact how markets react to the release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，这份报告的月度波动 notoriously 难以预测，因此我们不会对任何预测（包括我们的）过于看重。与往常一样，报告的其他方面，包括备受关注的平均时薪数据和失业率，也将影响市场对发布的反应。</p>
</div><h2>Potential NFP Market Reaction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>潜在的 NFP 市场反应</h2>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><strong>Wages &lt; 0.2% m/m</strong></td>
<td><strong>Wages 0.2-0.4% m/m</strong></td>
<td><strong>Wages &gt; 0.4% m/m</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>&lt; 20K jobs</strong></td>
<td>Slightly Bearish USD</td>
<td>Slightly Bearish USD</td>
<td>Neutral USD</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>20-110K jobs</strong></td>
<td>Neutral USD</td>
<td>Neutral USD</td>
<td>Slightly Bullish USD</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>&gt; 110K jobs</strong></td>
<td>Neutral USD</td>
<td>Slightly Bullish USD</td>
<td>Bullish USD</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><strong>工资 &lt; 0.2% m/m</strong></td>
<td><strong>工资 0.2-0.4% m/m</strong></td>
<td><strong>工资 &gt; 0.4% m/m</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>&lt; 20K 工作岗位</strong></td>
<td>稍微看跌美元</td>
<td>稍微看跌美元</td>
<td>中性美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>20-110K 工作岗位</strong></td>
<td>中性美元</td>
<td>中性美元</td>
<td>稍微看涨美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>&gt; 110K 工作岗位</strong></td>
<td>中性美元</td>
<td>稍微看涨美元</td>
<td>看涨美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Technically speaking, the US dollar is trading near the bottom of its 3-month range against its major rivals as the Iran-driven safe haven demand fades slightly. Further de-escalation could weigh on the greenback regardless of what this month’s jobs report shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术上讲，美元在与主要竞争对手的 3 个月区间底部附近交易，随着伊朗驱动的避险需求略有减弱。进一步的缓和可能会对美元施加压力，无论本月的就业报告显示什么。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>US Dollar Index Technical Analysis – EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元指数技术分析 – 欧元/美元 4 小时图</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-3.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260507114602-3.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source:</em> <em>TradingView</em> <em>, StoneX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：</em> <em>TradingView</em> <em>, StoneX</em></p>
</div><p>As the chart above shows, the world’s most widely-traded currency pair is showing signs of turning higher over the last couple of weeks after pulling back in the latter half of April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上图所示，全球交易最广泛的货币对在四月下半月回调后，过去几周显示出上涨的迹象。</p>
</div><p>EUR/USD has transitioned from putting in gradual lower lows and lower highs to higher lows and higher highs over the last week, potentially setting the stage for a retest of the 10-week highs near 1.1830, with a weaker-than-anticipated jobs report or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as possible bullish fundamental catalysts. A clean break above the 1.1830 level could expose the 1.1900 round handle or longer-term Fibonacci retracement at 1.1940 as future targets for bulls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧元/美元在过去一周从逐渐降低的低点和高点转变为更高的低点和高点，可能为重新测试接近 1.1830 的 10 周高点奠定基础，低于预期的就业报告或霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放可能成为看涨的基本催化剂。若突破 1.1830 水平，可能会暴露出 1.1900 的整数关口或 1.1940 的长期斐波那契回撤作为未来的目标。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, a strong jobs report or resumption of the “hot war” in Iran would likely weigh on EUR/USD and prompt a re-test of the near-term 50% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1650 as we head into next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，强劲的就业报告或伊朗 “热战” 的恢复可能会对欧元/美元施加压力，并促使重新测试接近 1.1650 的短期 50% 斐波那契回撤，进入下周。</p>
</div><p><em>-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>-- 作者：Matt Weller，全球研究主管</em></p>
</div><p><em>Follow Matt on Twitter:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>在 Twitter 上关注 Matt:</em> <em>@MWellerFX</em></p>
</div>

NFP Preview: No Sign of Turmoil in the Jobs Market?

- 四月 NFP 报告预计新增工作岗位 65K，失业率维持在 4.3%。  
- 领先指标显示本月整体就业增长可能在 110-150K 范围内。  
- 美联储降息预期降至 70%，员工工资增幅或影响市场反应。

非农就业数据预览：就业市场是否没有动荡迹象？