<p>作者：Vlad Signorelli</p>
<p>尽管华尔街专注于 “七大巨头”，但韩国的 KOSPI 自一月以来悄然实现了惊人的 75% 涨幅。</p>
<p>韩国的股市和经济正在蓬勃发展。</p>
<p>韩国的技术领导力与务实相结合，形成了持久的市场反弹。</p>
<p>今年，韩国成为全球表现最佳的主要市场——截至 5 月 7 日，其基准 KOSPI 指数以美元计上涨了 75%。而纳斯达克综合指数 COMP？仅上涨了 11%。</p>
<p>即使在现在，股票投资者也有充分理由继续关注韩国。</p>
<p>基本情况很简单：韩国股票继续向前冲。尽管霍尔木兹海峡发生了干扰，首尔仍然确保了充足的能源供应，以支持其炙手可热的科技行业。此外，未来没有可能扼杀这一势头的新税收或加息。</p>
<p>唯一真正的风险点是油价持续在 115 美元以上（CL.1）。这种持续的上涨可能会重新点燃通货膨胀，并迫使韩国央行采取鹰派立场，像 2022 年美国联邦储备系统那样打击股市。但这一尾部风险正在迅速减弱。油价的最坏情况大约在一个月前已经过去，地缘政治目前看起来也不那么危险。</p>
<p>大多数美国投资者仍然将韩国视为过去的电子产品投资，而不是在人工智能建设中处于核心地位的新兴市场赢家。</p>
<p>这次油价恐慌威胁到了全球人工智能繁荣中一个被低估的故事。大多数美国投资者仍然将韩国视为过去的电子产品投资，而不是在人工智能建设中处于核心地位的新兴市场赢家。但这正是韩国的真实情况。</p>
<p>三星电子（KR:005930）和 SK 海力士（KR:000660）主导着高带宽内存市场——这些先进芯片为人工智能服务器和数据中心提供动力。简而言之，iShares MSCI South Korea 交易所交易基金 EWY 不仅仅提供国家曝光。它为投资者提供了在人工智能供应链中的间接投资。</p>
<p>韩国如何应对封闭的海峡</p>
<p>在 3 月底看似接近生存危机的情况，到 4 月中旬变得可控。</p>
<p>当油价飙升，霍尔木兹海峡暴露在外时，风险显而易见。一个几乎完全依赖进口能源的国家将面临灭顶之灾。对于能源匮乏的韩国来说，拥有 68 天的战略储备，这是一场真正的考验。政府在近 30 年来首次实施了燃油价格上限，命令采取节能措施，包括公共部门车辆的五天轮换，增加煤电厂的发电力度，将核能利用率提升至 80% 以上，并禁止燃料出口。官员们在储备缓冲感到紧张时模拟了最坏情况。</p>
<p>韩国股市反应迅速。EWY 从 2 月底到 3 月 26 日下跌了 18.7%——这是自 2008 年以来的最大月度跌幅。十年期国债收益率上涨了 50 个基点（0.50%），达到 3.84%。由人工智能驱动的反弹突然看起来脆弱，面临商品冲击的威胁。</p>
<p>然后发生了转折。李在明总统警告称，供应链中断和高油价可能会持续，并命令官员将新供应路线和工业重组视为战略优先事项。他派遣了他的首席幕僚姜勋植进行外交任务。</p>
<p>姜明确表示，确保替代供应是 “克服经济紧急情况的最紧迫任务”。他说：“如果我们能确保一桶原油或一吨石脑油，这次出行就值得。”</p>
<p>在 3 月底，首尔启动了一项战略储备互换计划，让炼油厂立即借用政府拥有的中东原油，并在后续用新供应商的货物偿还。该计划最初设定在 4 月和 5 月，随后迅速延长至 6 月。对 7 月的进一步延长仍在审查中。</p>
<p>到 4 月 15 日，官员们宣布他们已通过绕过霍尔木兹的路线锁定了 2.73 亿桶原油和 210 万吨石脑油，直到年底。4 月 24 日，姜发布了头条数字：仅 5 月就确保了 7462 万桶——相当于去年月均的 87%。他说：“对供应中断几乎没有必要担忧。”</p>
<p>通过增加来自美洲和非洲的采购，韩国在一个月内将对中东原油的依赖从 69% 削减至 56%。港口数据证实了这一变化：蔚山港到达的非中东原油的比例从 12% 跃升至 30%。</p>
<p>储备互换弥补了更长的运输时间，替代货物开始大量到达。炼油厂和石化厂从未面临市场所担心的停产。</p>
<p>在 3 月底看似接近生存危机的情况，到 4 月中旬变得可控。</p>
<p>反弹</p>
<p>霍尔木兹的瓶颈依然存在，但恐慌并不存在。</p>
<p>市场注意到了这一点。EWY 从 3 月低点反弹，4 月持续上涨，创下新高并继续上升。霍尔木兹的瓶颈依然存在，但恐慌并不存在。</p>
<p>韩国的芯片故事从未消失。三星和 SK 海力士在人工智能建设中保持了自己的地位。改变的是消除了对贸易的一个明显威胁：持续的能源和原材料紧缩，严重影响工业产出。</p>
<p>霍尔木兹的干扰带来了自 1973 年和 1979 年石油危机以来，韩国面临的最大实物供应冲击。早期的冲击暴露了该国的弱点，迫使其建立了这次所用的系统：大型战略储备、扩大的核能能力和更灵活的供应基础。</p>
<p>面对无法控制的危机，首尔调整了对现有世界的适应，而不是等待世界自我修复。这种技术领导力与务实的结合，形成了持久的市场反弹。</p>
<p>Vlad Signorelli 是布雷顿森林研究公司的总裁，该公司是一家宏观经济预测公司。</p>
<p>更多：韩国股票刚刚享受了有史以来第二好的月份——现在市场规模超过了英国。</p>
<p>另请阅读：韩国为何拥有全球最火热的股市的真实原因</p>
<p>-弗拉德·西尼奥雷利</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>05-07-26 1559ET</p>

三星电子

韩国 MSCI ETF - iShares

富时韩国 ETF - Franklin Templeton

南方两倍做多三星

<p>韩国 KOSPI 指数在 2023 年上涨了 75%，表现优于纳斯达克的 11% 涨幅。该国强大的科技行业，由三星和 SK 海力士主导，处于人工智能繁荣的前沿。尽管最初对因油价上涨而导致的能源供应中断感到担忧，韩国成功地确保了替代能源来源，减少了对中东原油的依赖。这一战略举措增强了投资者信心，导致韩国股票的复苏，现在被视为全球人工智能供应链中的关键参与者</p>

<p>By Vlad Signorelli</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Vlad Signorelli</p>
</div><p>While Wall Street fixates on the 'Magnificent Seven,' South Korea's KOSPI has quietly delivered a stunning 75% gain since January</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管华尔街专注于 “七大巨头”，但韩国的 KOSPI 自一月以来悄然实现了惊人的 75% 涨幅。</p>
</div><p>South Korea's stock market and its economy are booming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国的股市和经济正在蓬勃发展。</p>
</div><p>South Korea's mix of technological leadership and pragmatism builds the kind of market rallies that last.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国的技术领导力与务实相结合，形成了持久的市场反弹。</p>
</div><p>South Korea has been the world's single best-performing major market this year - its benchmark KOSPI index has soared 75% in U.S.-dollar terms through May 7. The Nasdaq composite COMP? Up 11%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，韩国成为全球表现最佳的主要市场——截至 5 月 7 日，其基准 KOSPI 指数以美元计上涨了 75%。而纳斯达克综合指数 COMP？仅上涨了 11%。</p>
</div><p>There's good reason for stock investors to stick with South Korea, even now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在现在，股票投资者也有充分理由继续关注韩国。</p>
</div><p>The base case is straightforward: Korean equities keep charging ahead. Seoul secured abundant energy supplies to fuel its red-hot tech sector despite the Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Additionally, there are no nasty new taxes or rate hikes on the horizon that could kill the momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基本情况很简单：韩国股票继续向前冲。尽管霍尔木兹海峡发生了干扰，首尔仍然确保了充足的能源供应，以支持其炙手可热的科技行业。此外，未来没有可能扼杀这一势头的新税收或加息。</p>
</div><p>The one real flashpoint would be weeks of $115-plus oil (CL.1). That kind of sustained surge could reignite inflation and force the Bank of Korea to turn hawkish, slamming equities the same way the U.S. Federal Reserve crushed markets in 2022. But this tail risk is fading fast. The worst of the oil spike already passed about a month ago, and geopolitics look less dangerous for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唯一真正的风险点是油价持续在 115 美元以上（CL.1）。这种持续的上涨可能会重新点燃通货膨胀，并迫使韩国央行采取鹰派立场，像 2022 年美国联邦储备系统那样打击股市。但这一尾部风险正在迅速减弱。油价的最坏情况大约在一个月前已经过去，地缘政治目前看起来也不那么危险。</p>
</div><p>Most U.S. investors still see South Korea as yesterday's electronics play - rather than the emerging-market winner at the heart of the AI buildout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数美国投资者仍然将韩国视为过去的电子产品投资，而不是在人工智能建设中处于核心地位的新兴市场赢家。</p>
</div><p>This oil scare threatened one of the least-appreciated stories in the global artificial-intelligence boom. Most U.S. investors still see South Korea as yesterday's electronics play - rather than the emerging-market winner at the heart of the AI buildout. But that's exactly what South Korea is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这次油价恐慌威胁到了全球人工智能繁荣中一个被低估的故事。大多数美国投资者仍然将韩国视为过去的电子产品投资，而不是在人工智能建设中处于核心地位的新兴市场赢家。但这正是韩国的真实情况。</p>
</div><p>Samsung Electronics (KR:005930) and SK Hynix (KR:000660) dominate the market for high-bandwidth memory - the advanced chips that power AI servers and data centers. In short, the iShares MSCI South Korea exchange-traded fund EWY offers more than just country exposure. It gives investors a backdoor stake in the AI supply chain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三星电子（KR:005930）和 SK 海力士（KR:000660）主导着高带宽内存市场——这些先进芯片为人工智能服务器和数据中心提供动力。简而言之，iShares MSCI South Korea 交易所交易基金 EWY 不仅仅提供国家曝光。它为投资者提供了在人工智能供应链中的间接投资。</p>
</div><p>How South Korea navigated a closed strait</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国如何应对封闭的海峡</p>
</div><p>What looked close to an existential crisis in late March had become manageable by mid-April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 3 月底看似接近生存危机的情况，到 4 月中旬变得可控。</p>
</div><p>When oil prices spiked and the Strait of Hormuz sat exposed, the risks looked obvious. A country that imports nearly all its energy would be toast. For energy-poor South Korea, with 68 days of strategic reserves, this was a real test. The government imposed its first fuel-price caps in almost 30 years, ordered conservation measures including five-day rotations for public-sector vehicles, pushed coal plants harder, lifted nuclear utilization above 80% and banned fuel exports. Officials modeled worst-case scenarios as the reserve cushion began to feel thin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当油价飙升，霍尔木兹海峡暴露在外时，风险显而易见。一个几乎完全依赖进口能源的国家将面临灭顶之灾。对于能源匮乏的韩国来说，拥有 68 天的战略储备，这是一场真正的考验。政府在近 30 年来首次实施了燃油价格上限，命令采取节能措施，包括公共部门车辆的五天轮换，增加煤电厂的发电力度，将核能利用率提升至 80% 以上，并禁止燃料出口。官员们在储备缓冲感到紧张时模拟了最坏情况。</p>
</div><p>South Korean stocks reacted sharply. EWY dropped by 18.7% from late February to March 26 - its worst monthly decline since 2008. Ten-year government-bond yields jumped 50 basis points (0.50%) to 3.84%. The AI-driven rally suddenly looked vulnerable to a commodity shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国股市反应迅速。EWY 从 2 月底到 3 月 26 日下跌了 18.7%——这是自 2008 年以来的最大月度跌幅。十年期国债收益率上涨了 50 个基点（0.50%），达到 3.84%。由人工智能驱动的反弹突然看起来脆弱，面临商品冲击的威胁。</p>
</div><p>Then came the pivot. President Lee Jae Myung warned that supply-chain disruptions and high oil prices could drag on and ordered officials to treat new supply routes and industrial restructuring as strategic priorities. He sent his chief of staff, Kang Hoon-sik, on diplomatic missions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后发生了转折。李在明总统警告称，供应链中断和高油价可能会持续，并命令官员将新供应路线和工业重组视为战略优先事项。他派遣了他的首席幕僚姜勋植进行外交任务。</p>
</div><p>Kang was clear about the stakes. Securing alternative supplies counted as &#34;the most urgent task for overcoming the economic emergency,&#34; he said. &#34;If we can secure even one barrel of crude or one ton of naphtha, the trip pays.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>姜明确表示，确保替代供应是 “克服经济紧急情况的最紧迫任务”。他说：“如果我们能确保一桶原油或一吨石脑油，这次出行就值得。”</p>
</div><p>In late March, Seoul launched a strategic stockpile swap program that let refiners borrow government-owned Middle East crude right away and repay later with cargoes from new suppliers. The program, first set for April and May, was quickly extended through June. A further extension to July remains under review.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 3 月底，首尔启动了一项战略储备互换计划，让炼油厂立即借用政府拥有的中东原油，并在后续用新供应商的货物偿还。该计划最初设定在 4 月和 5 月，随后迅速延长至 6 月。对 7 月的进一步延长仍在审查中。</p>
</div><p>By April 15, officials announced they had locked in 273 million barrels of crude and 2.1 million tons of naphtha through year-end on routes that bypassed Hormuz. On April 24, Kang released the headline number: 74.62 million barrels secured for May alone - equal to 87% of the prior year's monthly average. &#34;There is little need to be concerned over supply disruptions,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 4 月 15 日，官员们宣布他们已通过绕过霍尔木兹的路线锁定了 2.73 亿桶原油和 210 万吨石脑油，直到年底。4 月 24 日，姜发布了头条数字：仅 5 月就确保了 7462 万桶——相当于去年月均的 87%。他说：“对供应中断几乎没有必要担忧。”</p>
</div><p>By ramping up purchases from the Americas and Africa, South Korea slashed its dependence on Middle East crude from 69% to 56% in a single month. Port data confirmed the shift: The share of non-Middle East crude among Ulsan port arrivals jumped from 12% to 30%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过增加来自美洲和非洲的采购，韩国在一个月内将对中东原油的依赖从 69% 削减至 56%。港口数据证实了这一变化：蔚山港到达的非中东原油的比例从 12% 跃升至 30%。</p>
</div><p>The stockpile swaps bridged longer shipping times, and alternative cargoes began to arrive in force. Refineries and petrochemical plants never faced the shutdowns markets had feared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>储备互换弥补了更长的运输时间，替代货物开始大量到达。炼油厂和石化厂从未面临市场所担心的停产。</p>
</div><p>What looked close to an existential crisis in late March had become manageable by mid-April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 3 月底看似接近生存危机的情况，到 4 月中旬变得可控。</p>
</div><p>The rebound</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>反弹</p>
</div><p>The Hormuz bottleneck still exists. The panic does not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹的瓶颈依然存在，但恐慌并不存在。</p>
</div><p>The market noticed. EWY snapped back from its March lows, climbed through April, hit fresh highs and kept rising. The Hormuz bottleneck still exists. The panic does not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场注意到了这一点。EWY 从 3 月低点反弹，4 月持续上涨，创下新高并继续上升。霍尔木兹的瓶颈依然存在，但恐慌并不存在。</p>
</div><p>South Korea's chip story never vanished. Samsung and SK Hynix kept their place in the AI buildout. What changed was the removal of the one obvious threat to the trade: a prolonged energy and feedstock squeeze severe enough to hit industrial output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国的芯片故事从未消失。三星和 SK 海力士在人工智能建设中保持了自己的地位。改变的是消除了对贸易的一个明显威胁：持续的能源和原材料紧缩，严重影响工业产出。</p>
</div><p>The Hormuz disruption delivered the biggest physical supply shock South Korea has faced since the oil crises of 1973 and 1979. Those earlier shocks exposed the country's weaknesses and forced it to build the systems it used this time: large strategic stockpiles, expanded nuclear capacity and a more flexible supply base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍尔木兹的干扰带来了自 1973 年和 1979 年石油危机以来，韩国面临的最大实物供应冲击。早期的冲击暴露了该国的弱点，迫使其建立了这次所用的系统：大型战略储备、扩大的核能能力和更灵活的供应基础。</p>
</div><p>Faced with a crisis it could not control, Seoul adjusted to the world as it existed rather than waiting for the world to fix itself. That mix of technological leadership and pragmatism builds the kind of market rallies that last.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>面对无法控制的危机，首尔调整了对现有世界的适应，而不是等待世界自我修复。这种技术领导力与务实的结合，形成了持久的市场反弹。</p>
</div><p>Vlad Signorelli is president of Bretton Woods Research, a macroeconomic forecasting firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Vlad Signorelli 是布雷顿森林研究公司的总裁，该公司是一家宏观经济预测公司。</p>
</div><p>More: South Korean stocks just enjoyed their second-best month ever - and now the market is bigger than the U.K.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：韩国股票刚刚享受了有史以来第二好的月份——现在市场规模超过了英国。</p>
</div><p>Also read: Here's the real reason South Korea has the hottest stock market in the world</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：韩国为何拥有全球最火热的股市的真实原因</p>
</div><p>-Vlad Signorelli</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-弗拉德·西尼奥雷利</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>05-07-26 1559ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-07-26 1559ET</p>
</div>

今年最佳的科技交易就隐藏在眼前——不，这并不是纳斯达克