<p>日本的服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）在四月份从 53.4 降至 51.0，创下 11 个月来的最低点，因中东战争导致投入成本通胀达到 42 个月来的最高水平，商业信心降至疫情以来的最低点。</p>
<p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>根据 S&amp;P Global 的数据，四月份 S&amp;P 全球日本服务业 PMI 从三月份的 53.4 降至 51.0，标志着 11 个月以来最温和的扩张速度，并且是连续第 13 个月增长。</li>
<li>四月份投入成本以 12 个月以来最快的速度上涨，中东战争被认为是主要驱动因素，尤其是燃料；根据 S&amp;P Global 的数据，产出收费以自 2007 年 9 月调查开始以来第三快的速度上涨。</li>
<li>新订单以自 2025 年 10 月以来最慢的速度扩张，出口业务在五个月内首次下降，部分原因归因于与战争相关的不确定性对海外需求的影响。</li>
<li>日本综合 PMI 产出指数从三月份的 53.0 降至四月份的 52.2，是 2026 年迄今为止最温和的读数，服务业的疲软抵消了制造业产出在 12 年内的最快增长。</li>
<li>综合指数的投入成本通胀在四月份达到 42 个月来的最高水平，而销售价格以创纪录的速度上涨，暗示未来几个月官方通胀将加速，S&amp;P Global 经济学副主任安娜贝尔·菲德斯（Annabel Fiddes）表示。</li>
<li>商业信心是疫情以来第二低，仅比三月份的疫情后低点略有上升，持续的不确定性被认为是主要拖累因素，尤其是战争及其成本和需求的影响。</li>
</ul>
<p>根据最新的 S&amp;P 全球日本服务业 PMI 调查，日本的服务业在四月份以 11 个月以来最慢的速度扩张，中东战争的经济影响使投入成本达到三年半以来的最高水平，并将商业信心压至自 Covid-19 疫情以来的最低水平。</p>
<p>服务业商业活动指数在四月份从三月份的 53.4 降至 51.0，仍高于 50.0 的扩张与收缩分界线，连续第 13 个月保持增长。然而，增长的速度是自 2025 年 5 月以来最微弱的，数据表明服务业在需求减弱和因海湾冲突导致的成本压力加剧之间愈发受到挤压。</p>
<p>新订单以自 2025 年 10 月以来最慢的速度扩张，企业报告称与战争相关的不确定性和高企的价格对销售造成了压力。出口业务在五个月内首次下降，尽管幅度不大，海外对日本服务的需求有所减弱。金融和保险以及运输和仓储是调查中表现最强的子行业，但整体情况是减速。</p>
<p>成本情况更为令人担忧。平均投入价格以 12 个月以来最快的速度上涨，燃料成本与中东战争直接相关，被明确指出是主要驱动因素。企业通过将更高的成本转嫁给客户来应对，产出收费以自 2007 年 9 月调查开始以来第三快的速度上涨。S&amp;P Global 警告称，定价数据表明日本官方通胀率在未来几个月将加速，这一发展将对日本银行的政策路径产生重大影响。</p>
<p>综合情况显示，结合服务业和制造业的日本综合 PMI 产出指数从三月份的 53.0 降至四月份的 52.2，是今年迄今为止最温和的读数。值得注意的是，综合指数掩盖了行业趋势的显著差异：服务业增长是几个月以来最弱，而制造业产出以 12 年多来的最快速度增长，部分原因是企业在预期战争相关的供应中断之前提前囤积库存。</p>
<p>在综合指数中，投入成本通胀达到 42 个月来的最高水平，销售价格以创纪录的速度上涨，安娜贝尔·菲德斯（Annabel Fiddes）表示，这表明官方通胀即将加速。菲德斯指出，商业信心在 2020 年 8 月降至疫情以来的最低水平，企业指出战争、进一步价格上涨的风险以及客户需求可能减弱是影响他们未来一年展望的主要不确定因素。</p>
<p>服务业的就业继续温和增长，增速大致与三月份持平，产能压力显示出一些缓解迹象，积压增长放缓至 14 个月以来的最慢速度。但这些相对稳定的劳动力市场信号与商业信心的读数形成了不和谐的对比，后者发出更为谨慎的信号，表明日本服务活动的前景在中东冲突没有减弱的情况下变得更加不明朗。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>服务活动放缓与创纪录的销售价格通胀的结合是一个滞胀信号，这在市场已经在基于今早的工资数据定价 6 月加息的时刻，给日本银行的政策决策带来了复杂性。</p>
<p>由于中东战争相关的燃料成本，输入成本通胀达到 42 个月来的最高水平，这直接将海湾冲突的影响传递到日本消费者价格。标准普尔全球公司警告称，官方通胀在未来几个月可能加速，这将增加日本银行的审议紧迫性。对于能源市场而言，这些数据进一步证明，伊朗冲突正在对亚洲第二大经济体造成可测量的需求侧干扰，商业信心降至疫情以来的最低点，抑制了本应支持燃料消费的活动增长。服务业放缓至 11 个月以来的最低点，而制造业则录得 12 年来最强劲的产出增长，部分是由于预期供应中断而提前备货，这种差异化的需求状况使得原油和成品油交易者需要谨慎应对。</p>

1369

1346

2525

<p>日本的服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）在四月份从 53.4 降至 51.0，创下 11 个月来的最低点，因为中东战争的经济影响导致投入成本达到 42 个月来的最高水平。商业信心是自疫情以来的第二低，新订单的增长速度是自 2025 年十月以来的最慢。投入价格大幅上涨，尤其是燃料价格，导致产出费用增加。日本综合 PMI 产出指数也有所下降，反映出服务业放缓，尽管制造业产出有所上升。分析师警告称，由于这些趋势，通货膨胀可能加速</p>

<p>Japan's services PMI fell to 51.0 in April from 53.4, an 11-month low, as Middle East war costs drove input inflation to a 42-month high and business confidence hit its lowest since the pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本的服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）在四月份从 53.4 降至 51.0，创下 11 个月来的最低点，因中东战争导致投入成本通胀达到 42 个月来的最高水平，商业信心降至疫情以来的最低点。</p>
</div><p><strong>Summary:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>The S&amp;P Global Japan Services PMI fell to 51.0 in April from 53.4 in March, marking the softest rate of expansion in 11 months and a 13th consecutive month of growth, according to S&amp;P Global</li>
<li>Input costs rose at the sharpest rate in 12 months in April, with the Middle East war cited as a key driver, particularly for fuel; output charges rose at the third-steepest rate since the survey began in September 2007, per S&amp;P Global</li>
<li>New orders expanded at the slowest pace since October 2025, with new export business falling for the first time in five months, partly attributed to war-related uncertainty weighing on overseas demand, according to S&amp;P Global</li>
<li>The Japan Composite PMI Output Index slipped from 53.0 in March to 52.2 in April, the softest reading of 2026 to date, with services weakness offsetting the quickest rise in manufacturing output in over 12 years, per S&amp;P Global</li>
<li>Input cost inflation across the composite hit a 42-month high in April, while selling prices rose at the fastest rate on record, suggesting an acceleration in official inflation in coming months, according to S&amp;P Global Economics Associate Director Annabel Fiddes</li>
<li>Business confidence was the second-lowest since the pandemic, lifting only marginally from March's post-pandemic low, with ongoing uncertainty over the war and its cost and demand implications cited as the primary drag, per S&amp;P Global</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>根据 S&amp;P Global 的数据，四月份 S&amp;P 全球日本服务业 PMI 从三月份的 53.4 降至 51.0，标志着 11 个月以来最温和的扩张速度，并且是连续第 13 个月增长。</li>
<li>四月份投入成本以 12 个月以来最快的速度上涨，中东战争被认为是主要驱动因素，尤其是燃料；根据 S&amp;P Global 的数据，产出收费以自 2007 年 9 月调查开始以来第三快的速度上涨。</li>
<li>新订单以自 2025 年 10 月以来最慢的速度扩张，出口业务在五个月内首次下降，部分原因归因于与战争相关的不确定性对海外需求的影响。</li>
<li>日本综合 PMI 产出指数从三月份的 53.0 降至四月份的 52.2，是 2026 年迄今为止最温和的读数，服务业的疲软抵消了制造业产出在 12 年内的最快增长。</li>
<li>综合指数的投入成本通胀在四月份达到 42 个月来的最高水平，而销售价格以创纪录的速度上涨，暗示未来几个月官方通胀将加速，S&amp;P Global 经济学副主任安娜贝尔·菲德斯（Annabel Fiddes）表示。</li>
<li>商业信心是疫情以来第二低，仅比三月份的疫情后低点略有上升，持续的不确定性被认为是主要拖累因素，尤其是战争及其成本和需求的影响。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Japan's services sector expanded at its slowest pace in 11 months in April, as the economic fallout from the Middle East war drove input costs to their highest in three and a half years and pushed business confidence to near its lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the latest S&amp;P Global Japan Services PMI survey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据最新的 S&amp;P 全球日本服务业 PMI 调查，日本的服务业在四月份以 11 个月以来最慢的速度扩张，中东战争的经济影响使投入成本达到三年半以来的最高水平，并将商业信心压至自 Covid-19 疫情以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>The headline Services Business Activity Index fell to 51.0 in April from 53.4 in March, remaining above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction and extending the current growth streak to 13 consecutive months. However, the pace of that growth was the most marginal since May 2025, and the data pointed to a services sector increasingly squeezed between weakening demand and accelerating cost pressures driven by the conflict in the Gulf.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服务业商业活动指数在四月份从三月份的 53.4 降至 51.0，仍高于 50.0 的扩张与收缩分界线，连续第 13 个月保持增长。然而，增长的速度是自 2025 年 5 月以来最微弱的，数据表明服务业在需求减弱和因海湾冲突导致的成本压力加剧之间愈发受到挤压。</p>
</div><p>New orders expanded at the slowest rate since October 2025, with firms reporting that uncertainty related to the war and elevated prices had weighed on sales. Export business fell for the first time in five months, albeit modestly, as overseas demand for Japanese services softened. Finance and insurance and transport and storage were the strongest-performing sub-sectors within the survey, but the broader picture was one of deceleration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新订单以自 2025 年 10 月以来最慢的速度扩张，企业报告称与战争相关的不确定性和高企的价格对销售造成了压力。出口业务在五个月内首次下降，尽管幅度不大，海外对日本服务的需求有所减弱。金融和保险以及运输和仓储是调查中表现最强的子行业，但整体情况是减速。</p>
</div><p>The cost picture was more alarming. Average input prices rose at the sharpest rate in 12 months, with fuel costs linked to the Middle East war cited explicitly as a key driver. Firms responded by passing on higher costs to clients, with output charges rising at the third-steepest rate recorded since the survey began in September 2007. S&amp;P Global warned that the pricing data points to an acceleration in Japan's official inflation rate in the months ahead, a development that will carry significant implications for the Bank of Japan's policy path.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成本情况更为令人担忧。平均投入价格以 12 个月以来最快的速度上涨，燃料成本与中东战争直接相关，被明确指出是主要驱动因素。企业通过将更高的成本转嫁给客户来应对，产出收费以自 2007 年 9 月调查开始以来第三快的速度上涨。S&amp;P Global 警告称，定价数据表明日本官方通胀率在未来几个月将加速，这一发展将对日本银行的政策路径产生重大影响。</p>
</div><p>The composite picture, combining services and manufacturing, showed the Japan Composite PMI Output Index easing from 53.0 in March to 52.2 in April, its softest reading of the year to date. Strikingly, the composite masked sharply divergent sectoral trends: services growth was the weakest in months, while manufacturing output rose at the fastest rate in over 12 years, driven partly by front-loading as firms sought to build inventory buffers ahead of anticipated war-related supply disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合情况显示，结合服务业和制造业的日本综合 PMI 产出指数从三月份的 53.0 降至四月份的 52.2，是今年迄今为止最温和的读数。值得注意的是，综合指数掩盖了行业趋势的显著差异：服务业增长是几个月以来最弱，而制造业产出以 12 年多来的最快速度增长，部分原因是企业在预期战争相关的供应中断之前提前囤积库存。</p>
</div><p>Across the composite, input cost inflation hit a 42-month high and selling prices rose at the fastest rate on record, a combination that Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, described as suggestive of a coming acceleration in official inflation. Fiddes noted that business confidence slipped to its lowest since the pandemic in August 2020, with firms citing the war, the risk of further price increases, and the possibility of softer customer demand as the primary sources of uncertainty weighing on their year-ahead outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在综合指数中，投入成本通胀达到 42 个月来的最高水平，销售价格以创纪录的速度上涨，安娜贝尔·菲德斯（Annabel Fiddes）表示，这表明官方通胀即将加速。菲德斯指出，商业信心在 2020 年 8 月降至疫情以来的最低水平，企业指出战争、进一步价格上涨的风险以及客户需求可能减弱是影响他们未来一年展望的主要不确定因素。</p>
</div><p>Employment continued to rise modestly across the services sector, at a pace broadly in line with March, and capacity pressures showed some signs of easing as backlog growth slowed to its softest rate in 14 months. But those relatively stable labour market signals sat in uncomfortable contrast with a confidence reading that is flashing a more cautious message about where Japanese services activity is headed as the Middle East conflict shows no sign of abating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服务业的就业继续温和增长，增速大致与三月份持平，产能压力显示出一些缓解迹象，积压增长放缓至 14 个月以来的最慢速度。但这些相对稳定的劳动力市场信号与商业信心的读数形成了不和谐的对比，后者发出更为谨慎的信号，表明日本服务活动的前景在中东冲突没有减弱的情况下变得更加不明朗。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>The combination of slowing services activity and record-pace selling price inflation is a stagflationary signal that complicates the Bank of Japan's policy calculus at a moment when markets are already pricing a June rate hike on the back of this morning's wage data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服务活动放缓与创纪录的销售价格通胀的结合是一个滞胀信号，这在市场已经在基于今早的工资数据定价 6 月加息的时刻，给日本银行的政策决策带来了复杂性。</p>
</div><p>Input cost inflation hitting a 42-month high, driven explicitly by Middle East war-related fuel costs, is a direct transmission mechanism from the Gulf conflict to Japanese consumer prices, and S&amp;P Global's warning that official inflation could accelerate in coming months will add urgency to the BOJ's deliberations. For energy markets, the data provides further evidence that the Iran conflict is generating measurable demand-side disruption in Asia's second-largest economy, with business confidence at its lowest since the pandemic suppressing the kind of activity growth that would otherwise support fuel consumption. The divergence between a services sector slowing to its weakest in 11 months and a manufacturing sector posting its strongest output growth in over 12 years, partly driven by front-loading ahead of anticipated supply disruptions, creates an uneven demand picture that traders in both crude and refined products will need to navigate carefully.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于中东战争相关的燃料成本，输入成本通胀达到 42 个月来的最高水平，这直接将海湾冲突的影响传递到日本消费者价格。标准普尔全球公司警告称，官方通胀在未来几个月可能加速，这将增加日本银行的审议紧迫性。对于能源市场而言，这些数据进一步证明，伊朗冲突正在对亚洲第二大经济体造成可测量的需求侧干扰，商业信心降至疫情以来的最低点，抑制了本应支持燃料消费的活动增长。服务业放缓至 11 个月以来的最低点，而制造业则录得 12 年来最强劲的产出增长，部分是由于预期供应中断而提前备货，这种差异化的需求状况使得原油和成品油交易者需要谨慎应对。</p>
</div>

Japan services PMI hits 11-month low in April. War costs bite, input costs 42-month high

- 日本四月服务业 PMI 从 53.4 降至 51.0，创 11 个月最低点。  
- 中东战争使投入成本通胀达到 42 个月高位，商业信心降至疫情后低点。  
- 新订单和出口业务减弱，未来官方通胀可能加速。

日本服务业 PMI 在四月份降至 11 个月来的最低点。战争成本的影响显现，投入成本达到 42 个月来的最高点