<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/mexico.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/mexico.png"/></p>
<p>在过去几个月中，美元/墨西哥比索汇率承压，因为主要新兴市场货币持续走强，击败了美元。周五汇率降至 17.30，较年初高点 18.14 下跌，市场关注美国非农就业数据和 5 月 7 日的墨西哥利率决策。</p>
<h2>美国非农就业数据即将公布</h2>
<p>美元/墨西哥比索汇率的主要催化剂将是即将公布的美国非农就业数据，预计将在周五发布。</p>
<p>经济学家预计这些数据将显示，4 月份经济新增 6 万个就业岗位，而上个月新增 17.8 万个。大部分新增岗位可能来自酒店业，因为企业正在为即将到来的世界杯活动做准备。</p>
<p>失业率预计将保持在 4.3%，而工资增长预计将保持在 3% 以上。</p>
<p>然而，现实是美国劳动力市场表现不佳，因为企业抱怨经营成本高企以及人工智能的持续整合。</p>
<p>一些大型公司在过去几个月宣布裁员。例如，1.7 万名 Spirit Airlines 的员工在公司申请破产后失去了工作。</p>
<p>Coinbase 正在裁减 14% 的员工，而 Cloudflare 则裁减了 1100 名员工。数据显示，科技公司在 4 月份减少了超过 3.3 万个员工，这一趋势将继续。一些面临风险的主要岗位在软件行业，因为像 Claude 这样的人工智能工具可以简化产品的交付方式。</p>
<p>这些数据是在上周美联储利率决策之后发布的，官员们决定将利率维持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 之间。官员们的态度偏向鸽派，大多数人关注疲弱的劳动力市场。</p>
<p>美联储正在应对美国处于滞胀状态的事实，这一时期的特点是高通胀和缓慢的经济增长。</p>
<h2>墨西哥中央银行利率决策</h2>
<p>美元/墨西哥比索汇率的另一个主要催化剂是最新的墨西哥银行决策，该决策于周四公布。</p>
<p>该银行已进入降息周期，利率从 2024 年的 11.25% 降至今天的 6.50%。分析师认为，本周的降息是该周期中的最后一次。三名董事会成员投票支持降息，而两名成员则倾向于维持不变。</p>
<p>该银行指出，全球挑战导致经济恶化。其经济在第一季度萎缩，而通胀在该季度略有下降。</p>
<p>Banxico 的降息降低了其在套利交易投资者中的吸引力，因为美国和墨西哥利率之间的利差缩小。套利交易是指投资者借入低收益货币，并将资金投资于高收益国家的情况。</p>
<h2>美元/墨西哥比索技术分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/USDMXN.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/USDMXN.png"/></p>
<p><em>美元/墨西哥比索图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
<p>日线图显示，美元对墨西哥比索的汇率从 3 月 20 日的 18.14 高点暴跌至 17.30。</p>
<p>它已经跌破所有移动平均线，表明空头仍然占据主导地位。此外，该货币对已跌破 Ichimoku 云指标，而相对强弱指数（RSI）也向下倾斜。</p>
<p>因此，最可能的情况是该货币对继续下跌，可能跌至 17.08 的支撑位，这是今年 2 月和 3 月的最低水平。</p>
<p>另一方面，若突破 17.58 的阻力位，将会否定看空前景，并指向更多的上涨。这是可能的，因为该货币对形成了类似双底的图表形态。</p>
<p>美元/墨西哥比索预测在墨西哥中央银行最后一次降息后首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

墨西哥 3 倍做多 MSCI ETF - Direxion

iShares MSCI墨西哥投资指数ETF

<p>最近，美元/墨西哥比索汇率已降至 17.30，较 18.14 的高点下跌，受到新兴市场货币表现优于美元的影响。关键因素包括即将发布的美国非农就业数据，预计四月份新增就业岗位为 6 万，以及墨西哥银行最近将利率从 11.25% 下调至 6.50%。此次降息被视为本轮周期的最后一次，影响了套利交易的吸引力。技术分析显示出看跌趋势，潜在支撑位在 17.08，除非突破 17.58 的阻力位</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/mexico.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/mexico.png"/></p>
<p>The USD/MXN exchange rate has come under pressure in the past few months as top emerging market currencies continued to beat the US dollar. It dropped to 17.30 on Friday, down from the year-to-date high of 18.14 as focus shifted to the US non-farm payrolls data and May 7th’s Mexico interest rates decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几个月中，美元/墨西哥比索汇率承压，因为主要新兴市场货币持续走强，击败了美元。周五汇率降至 17.30，较年初高点 18.14 下跌，市场关注美国非农就业数据和 5 月 7 日的墨西哥利率决策。</p>
</div><h2>US non-farm payrolls data ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美国非农就业数据即将公布</h2>
</div><p>The main catalyst for the USD/MXN exchange rate will be the upcoming US non-farm payrolls numbers, which will come out on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/墨西哥比索汇率的主要催化剂将是即将公布的美国非农就业数据，预计将在周五发布。</p>
</div><p>Economists expect these numbers to reveal that the economy created 60k jobs in April after adding 178k in the previous month. Most of these numbers will likely be in the hospitality industry as businesses prepare for the upcoming World Cup event.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家预计这些数据将显示，4 月份经济新增 6 万个就业岗位，而上个月新增 17.8 万个。大部分新增岗位可能来自酒店业，因为企业正在为即将到来的世界杯活动做准备。</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, while wage growth is expected to remain above 3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失业率预计将保持在 4.3%，而工资增长预计将保持在 3% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Still, the reality is that the US labor market is not doing well, as companies complain about the elevated cost of doing business and the ongoing AI integration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，现实是美国劳动力市场表现不佳，因为企业抱怨经营成本高企以及人工智能的持续整合。</p>
</div><p>Some large companies have announced layoffs in the past few months. For example, 17,000 Spirit Airlines employees lost their jobs after the company filed for bankruptcy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些大型公司在过去几个月宣布裁员。例如，1.7 万名 Spirit Airlines 的员工在公司申请破产后失去了工作。</p>
</div><p>Coinbase is slashing 14% of its workers, while Cloudflare is cutting 1,100 employees. Data shows that tech companies reduced their workers by over 33k in April and this trend will continue. Some of the top jobs at risk are in the software industry as AI tools like Claude can simplify how products are shipped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coinbase 正在裁减 14% 的员工，而 Cloudflare 则裁减了 1100 名员工。数据显示，科技公司在 4 月份减少了超过 3.3 万个员工，这一趋势将继续。一些面临风险的主要岗位在软件行业，因为像 Claude 这样的人工智能工具可以简化产品的交付方式。</p>
</div><p>These numbers come after last week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision in which officials decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%. Officials had a dovish tilt, with most of them focusing on the weak labor market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数据是在上周美联储利率决策之后发布的，官员们决定将利率维持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 之间。官员们的态度偏向鸽派，大多数人关注疲弱的劳动力市场。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve is contending with the fact that the US is in a stagflation, a period characterized by high inflation and a slow economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储正在应对美国处于滞胀状态的事实，这一时期的特点是高通胀和缓慢的经济增长。</p>
</div><h2>Mexican Central Bank interest rate decision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>墨西哥中央银行利率决策</h2>
</div><p>The other main catalyst for the USD/MXN exchange rate is the latest Bank of Mexico decision, which came out on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/墨西哥比索汇率的另一个主要催化剂是最新的墨西哥银行决策，该决策于周四公布。</p>
</div><p>The bank has been in a rate cut cycle, with the interest rate falling from 11.25% in 2024 to 6.50% today. Analysts believe that its rate cut this week was the final one during the cycle. Three board members voted to cut, while two of them favored leaving them unchanged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行已进入降息周期，利率从 2024 年的 11.25% 降至今天的 6.50%。分析师认为，本周的降息是该周期中的最后一次。三名董事会成员投票支持降息，而两名成员则倾向于维持不变。</p>
</div><p>The bank pointed to the deteriorating economy amid global challenges. Its economy shrank in the first quarter, while inflation dropped modestly during the quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行指出，全球挑战导致经济恶化。其经济在第一季度萎缩，而通胀在该季度略有下降。</p>
</div><p>The Banxico interest rate cut has reduced its appeal among carry trade investors as the spread between the US and Mexican rates has narrowed. A carry trade is a situation where investors borrow a lower-yielding currency and invests the cash in a higher-yielding country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Banxico 的降息降低了其在套利交易投资者中的吸引力，因为美国和墨西哥利率之间的利差缩小。套利交易是指投资者借入低收益货币，并将资金投资于高收益国家的情况。</p>
</div><h2>USD/MXN technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/墨西哥比索技术分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/USDMXN.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/USDMXN.png"/></p>
<p><em>USDMXN chart | Source: TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>美元/墨西哥比索图表 | 来源：TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD to MXN exchange rate has crashed from a high of 18.14 on March 20th to 17.30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日线图显示，美元对墨西哥比索的汇率从 3 月 20 日的 18.14 高点暴跌至 17.30。</p>
</div><p>It has crashed below all moving averages, a sign that bears remain in control. Also, the pair has moved below the Ichimoku cloud indicator, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has tilted downwards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它已经跌破所有移动平均线，表明空头仍然占据主导地位。此外，该货币对已跌破 Ichimoku 云指标，而相对强弱指数（RSI）也向下倾斜。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the pair continues falling, potentially to the support at 17.08, its lowest level in February and March this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，最可能的情况是该货币对继续下跌，可能跌至 17.08 的支撑位，这是今年 2 月和 3 月的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, a move above the resistance at 17.58 will invalidate the bearish outlook and point to more gains. This is possible as the pair has formed a double-bottom-like chart pattern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，若突破 17.58 的阻力位，将会否定看空前景，并指向更多的上涨。这是可能的，因为该货币对形成了类似双底的图表形态。</p>
</div><p>The post USD/MXN forecast after the final Mexico Central Bank rate cut appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/墨西哥比索预测在墨西哥中央银行最后一次降息后首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

在墨西哥央行最终降息后，美元/墨西哥比索的预测