<p>亿万富翁对冲基金经理保罗·都铎·琼斯在周四接受 CNBC 采访时发表了重要声明，暗示即将上任的美联储主席沃尔什不仅不会降息，甚至可能考虑加息。他对美国股市的人工智能驱动牛市持乐观态度，认为当前市场处于中期，仍有 1-2 年的上涨潜力，但最终将面临急剧修正的风险。关于沃尔什作为新任美联储主席的政策立场，琼斯明确表示：“他会降息吗？绝对不会。” 沃尔什此前曾公开表示倾向于降息，而美联储的基准利率自去年 12 月以来保持在 3.5%-3.75% 不变。然而，其放宽货币政策的意愿将面临来自联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的重大阻力——最近一次会议上出现了近 34 年来最多的反对票，大多数地区美联储主席反对在 2025 年底前三次降息后进一步放松的声明。琼斯认为，在当前环境下甚至有加息的理由：“我当然会考虑加息，这取决于数据，但我肯定会考虑。而且我认为他在中期选举之前会受到限制。” 当前的政策背景复杂：劳动力市场正在稳定，但伊朗战争和特朗普的关税政策导致通胀仍高于美联储 2% 的目标。根据 CME 集团的 FedWatch 工具，期货交易者预计美联储今年将维持利率不变，降息和加息的概率大致相等且都较低。</p>
<h2>基于历史技术浪潮，人工智能牛市仍有 1-2 年的上升动能</h2>
<p>关于股市，琼斯对人工智能驱动的牛市持坚定乐观态度，透露他最近增加了相关股票的持仓。他将当前人工智能的发展与历史上两次重大技术革命进行比较：“我认为克劳德的大模型在今年 1 月的出现相当于 1981 年微软的创立；而当前人工智能普及的阶段类似于 1995 年 Windows 95 发布和互联网商业化加速的时期。”</p>
<p>琼斯指出，这两次技术革命都带来了持续 4 到 5 年半的 “生产力奇迹”，推动了股市的长期上升趋势。</p>
<p>“当前的人工智能牛市大约完成了 50% 到 60%，如果我们必须选择一个时间框架，它可能还会持续 1-2 年。” 近年来，在人工智能转型预期的推动下，美国股市持续创下新高，与人工智能基础设施相关的大型科技股领涨。芯片、云计算和生成性人工智能公司已成为投资的焦点，标准普尔 500 指数屡创新高。类似于 1999 年互联网泡沫前夕，美国股市未来可能面临急剧修正的风险。尽管对短期市场持乐观态度，琼斯将当前市场比作 1999 年互联网泡沫前夕——在 2000 年初达到顶峰之前还有大约一年。他警告道：“想象一下股市再上涨 40%，美国股市总市值与 GDP 的比率可能达到 300% 到 350%，到那时，令人窒息的大幅修正是不可避免的。” 作为一名宏观交易员，琼斯表示他采用了一种篮子配置策略，强调：“我总是喜欢寻找历史先例；这是一个非常特殊的时刻。” 此外，他警告人工智能的长期风险：“政府最终需要干预和监管；如果不加以控制，人工智能可能对人类构成危险。” 琼斯因成功预测并从 1987 年 “黑色星期一” 股市崩盘中获利而声名鹊起，同时也是非营利组织 Just Capital 的联合创始人，该组织根据社会和环境指标对美国上市公司进行评级。</p>

全美成长股指数 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

汇添富纳斯达克100ETF

美国大盘成长股 ETF - Charles Schwab

<p>亿万富翁对冲基金经理保罗·都铎·琼斯在接受 CNBC 采访时表示，新任美联储主席沃尔什 “绝对不会” 降息，甚至可能考虑加息。琼斯对美国股市的人工智能驱动牛市持乐观态度，预测该市场还有 1-2 年的上涨潜力，但警告存在剧烈回调的风险。他将当前的人工智能发展与过去的技术革命进行了比较，并强调需要政府对人工智能进行监管，以减轻长期风险。在通胀担忧的背景下，美联储当前的利率维持在 3.5%-3.75% 不变</p>

<p>Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones made a significant statement in a CNBC interview on Thursday, suggesting that incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh will not only refrain from cutting interest rates but may even consider raising them. He also remains optimistic about the AI-driven bull market in US stocks, believing the current market is in its mid-stage and still has 1-2 years of upward potential, but will ultimately face the risk of a sharp correction. Regarding Walsh's policy stance as incoming Fed chairman, Jones stated unequivocally: &#34;Will he cut rates? Absolutely not.&#34; Walsh has previously publicly expressed a preference for rate cuts, and the Fed's benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% since December of last year. However, its willingness to ease monetary policy will face significant resistance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)—the most recent meeting saw the most dissenting votes in nearly 34 years, with most regional Fed presidents opposing the statement that suggested further easing after three rate cuts by the end of 2025. Jones believes there are even reasons to raise rates in the current environment: &#34;I would consider raising rates, of course, depending on the data, but I would definitely consider it. And I think he will be constrained before the midterm elections.&#34; The current policy context is complex: the labor market is stabilizing, but the Iran war and Trump's tariff policies have caused inflation to remain above the Fed's 2% target. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, futures traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this year, with the probabilities of rate cuts and rate hikes being roughly equal and both low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亿万富翁对冲基金经理保罗·都铎·琼斯在周四接受 CNBC 采访时发表了重要声明，暗示即将上任的美联储主席沃尔什不仅不会降息，甚至可能考虑加息。他对美国股市的人工智能驱动牛市持乐观态度，认为当前市场处于中期，仍有 1-2 年的上涨潜力，但最终将面临急剧修正的风险。关于沃尔什作为新任美联储主席的政策立场，琼斯明确表示：“他会降息吗？绝对不会。” 沃尔什此前曾公开表示倾向于降息，而美联储的基准利率自去年 12 月以来保持在 3.5%-3.75% 不变。然而，其放宽货币政策的意愿将面临来自联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的重大阻力——最近一次会议上出现了近 34 年来最多的反对票，大多数地区美联储主席反对在 2025 年底前三次降息后进一步放松的声明。琼斯认为，在当前环境下甚至有加息的理由：“我当然会考虑加息，这取决于数据，但我肯定会考虑。而且我认为他在中期选举之前会受到限制。” 当前的政策背景复杂：劳动力市场正在稳定，但伊朗战争和特朗普的关税政策导致通胀仍高于美联储 2% 的目标。根据 CME 集团的 FedWatch 工具，期货交易者预计美联储今年将维持利率不变，降息和加息的概率大致相等且都较低。</p>
</div><h2>Based on historical technological waves, the AI ​​bull market still has 1-2 years of upward momentum</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>基于历史技术浪潮，人工智能牛市仍有 1-2 年的上升动能</h2>
</div><p>Regarding the stock market, Jones is firmly optimistic about the AI-driven bull market, revealing that he has recently increased his holdings of related stocks. He compares the current development of AI to two major technological revolutions in history: &#34;I think the emergence of Claude's big model in January this year is equivalent to the founding of Microsoft in 1981; while the current stage of AI popularization is similar to the period of Windows 95 release in 1995 and the acceleration of internet commercialization.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于股市，琼斯对人工智能驱动的牛市持坚定乐观态度，透露他最近增加了相关股票的持仓。他将当前人工智能的发展与历史上两次重大技术革命进行比较：“我认为克劳德的大模型在今年 1 月的出现相当于 1981 年微软的创立；而当前人工智能普及的阶段类似于 1995 年 Windows 95 发布和互联网商业化加速的时期。”</p>
</div><p>Jones pointed out that both of those technological revolutions ushered in a &#34;productivity miracle&#34; that lasted for 4 to 5 and a half years, driving a long-term upward trend in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>琼斯指出，这两次技术革命都带来了持续 4 到 5 年半的 “生产力奇迹”，推动了股市的长期上升趋势。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The current AI bull market is about 50% to 60% complete, and if we had to pick a timeframe, it could last another 1-2 years.&#34; In recent years, driven by expectations of AI transformation, US stocks have continued to reach new highs, with large-cap tech stocks related to AI infrastructure leading the gains. Chip, cloud computing, and generative AI companies have become the focus of investment, and the S&amp;P 500 index has repeatedly hit record highs. Analogous to the eve of the 1999 dot-com bubble, US stocks may face a sharp correction risk in the future. Despite being optimistic about the short-term market, Jones compares the current market to the eve of the 1999 dot-com bubble—there is still about a year before it peaked in early 2000. He warned, &#34;Imagine the stock market rising another 40%, the ratio of total US stock market capitalization to GDP could reach 300% to 350%, at which point a suffocatingly large correction is inevitable.&#34; As a macro trader, Jones stated that he employs a basket allocation strategy, emphasizing, &#34;I always like to look for historical precedents; this is a very special time.&#34; Furthermore, he warned of the long-term risks of AI: &#34;Governments will eventually need to intervene and regulate; if left unchecked, artificial intelligence could pose a danger to humanity.&#34; Jones rose to fame for successfully predicting and profiting from the 1987 &#34;Black Monday&#34; stock market crash, and is also the co-founder of the non-profit organization Just Capital, which rates US listed companies based on social and environmental indicators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“当前的人工智能牛市大约完成了 50% 到 60%，如果我们必须选择一个时间框架，它可能还会持续 1-2 年。” 近年来，在人工智能转型预期的推动下，美国股市持续创下新高，与人工智能基础设施相关的大型科技股领涨。芯片、云计算和生成性人工智能公司已成为投资的焦点，标准普尔 500 指数屡创新高。类似于 1999 年互联网泡沫前夕，美国股市未来可能面临急剧修正的风险。尽管对短期市场持乐观态度，琼斯将当前市场比作 1999 年互联网泡沫前夕——在 2000 年初达到顶峰之前还有大约一年。他警告道：“想象一下股市再上涨 40%，美国股市总市值与 GDP 的比率可能达到 300% 到 350%，到那时，令人窒息的大幅修正是不可避免的。” 作为一名宏观交易员，琼斯表示他采用了一种篮子配置策略，强调：“我总是喜欢寻找历史先例；这是一个非常特殊的时刻。” 此外，他警告人工智能的长期风险：“政府最终需要干预和监管；如果不加以控制，人工智能可能对人类构成危险。” 琼斯因成功预测并从 1987 年 “黑色星期一” 股市崩盘中获利而声名鹊起，同时也是非营利组织 Just Capital 的联合创始人，该组织根据社会和环境指标对美国上市公司进行评级。</p>
</div>

Legendary investor: Warsh "absolutely not" will cut interest rates.

- 投资者 Paul Tudor Jones 认为美联储新主席 Walsh 不会降息，或将加息。  
- 他对 AI 主导的股票市场看好，预计未来 1-2 年仍有上涨潜力。  
- 然而，长期面临大幅回调风险，投资者需注意市场泡沫。

传奇投资者表示：沃什 “绝对不会” 降低利率