<p>河内——越南推动双位数增长暴露出信用重的经济中深层结构性压力，进一步加大了对扩大资本市场和提高投资效率的呼声。</p>
<p>银行信贷已达到约 145% 的 GDP，给银行系统带来了日益增长的压力，并加大了金融稳定风险，即使资本需求激增。</p>
<p>根据财政部在国会提出的估计，2026-2030 年期间的总投资需求预计为 38.5 万万越南盾（1500 亿美元），而国家预算只能覆盖约 20%，其余大部分需从私营部门筹集。</p>
<p>这种压力在金融系统的结构中愈发明显。银行传统上设计用于提供短期融资，但却在为越来越多的中长期项目融资，造成了期限错配和流动性风险。约 40% 的总未偿贷款属于这一类别，相当于 GDP 的约 60%。</p>
<p>越南国家银行的数据还显示，信贷增长与存款动员之间的不平衡正在加大。到 2025 年底，信贷增长为 19.01%，而存款增长为 14.11%。在 2026 年第一季度，这一差距进一步扩大，信贷增长 2.15%，而存款增长仅为 0.44%。</p>
<p>经济学家表示，这种不平衡突显了资本市场的不发达。</p>
<p>越南亚洲开发银行首席经济学家阮伯雄表示，银行信贷与企业债券市场之间的差距是 “不合理的”。</p>
<p>在更先进的经济体中，债券市场在提供长期资本和降低商业银行风险方面发挥着核心作用。</p>
<p>在越南，企业债券市场仅占 GDP 的约 10%，远低于发达市场的水平。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，政策制定者警告称，如果不进行调整，当前的信贷政策可能会进一步限制增长。</p>
<p>来自同奈省的国会议员郑春安表示，严格的信贷上限可能会成为扩张的瓶颈。</p>
<p>“如果信贷增长限制在约 15%，那么创造足够的空间以实现 10% 或更高的 GDP 增长将非常困难，” 安说。</p>
<p>他呼吁采取更灵活的方法，包括有选择性地提高资产质量强、不良贷款比例低的银行的信贷限额，以更好地将资本引导到生产性部门。</p>
<p>尽管对信贷政策的短期调整可能会缓解压力，但专家表示，长期解决方案在于多样化融资来源。</p>
<p>FiinGroup 董事长阮光春表示，如果改革果断实施，越南可以释放出大量长期资本。</p>
<p>他指出，国家股市从前沿市场升级为新兴市场的潜在机会是一个关键催化剂，这可能通过首次公开募股和并购吸引更多外资机构投资者的流入。</p>
<p>“这是经济所需的真实、长期资本，” 春被引用在_vnbusiness.vn_上说。</p>
<p><strong>投资效率</strong></p>
<p>除了金融改革，政策制定者还希望释放闲置的国内资源。</p>
<p>估计有 3.3 万万越南盾（1270 亿美元）被困在停滞的项目和未使用的土地中，这几乎是 2026 年计划公共投资的三倍。</p>
<p>官员表示，解决这些瓶颈将立即提升资本供应并支持增长。</p>
<p>提高投资效率是另一个关键优先事项。</p>
<p>财政部长吴文俊表示，如果不改善增量资本产出比（ICOR），总社会投资需要提高到 GDP 的 70% 才能维持双位数增长。</p>
<p>“这不是可持续的道路，” 他说，并补充说将 ICOR 降低到 4.5 以下是至关重要的。</p>
<p>然而，他指出，即使这个目标与其他亚洲经济体在快速增长阶段的水平相比仍然相对较高，例如中国（2.7）、日本（3.2）和韩国（3）。</p>
<p>随着越南目标在 2045 年成为高收入经济体，分析人士表示，从依赖银行的系统转向更平衡的金融模型——由更深的资本市场和更高效的投资支持，将是至关重要的。—— BIZHUB/VNS</p>

PP越南

越南 ETF - VanEck Vectors

<p>越南追求两位数增长的过程中，显露出其以信贷为重的经济面临显著压力，银行信贷已达到 GDP 的 145%，金融稳定风险增加。财政部估计，2026-2030 年的总投资需求将达到 38.5 万亿越南盾（约合 1.5 万亿美元），而国家预算仅能覆盖 20%。银行系统在为更多中长期项目融资时面临到期不匹配的问题。专家强调，需要扩大资本市场并提高投资效率，以支持可持续增长并减少对银行信贷的依赖</p>

<p>HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s push for double-digit growth is exposing deep structural strains in a credit-heavy economy, intensifying calls to expand capital markets and improve investment efficiency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>河内——越南推动双位数增长暴露出信用重的经济中深层结构性压力，进一步加大了对扩大资本市场和提高投资效率的呼声。</p>
</div><p>Bank credit has reached around 145 per cent of GDP, placing growing pressure on the banking system and heightening financial stability risks, even as capital demand surges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银行信贷已达到约 145% 的 GDP，给银行系统带来了日益增长的压力，并加大了金融稳定风险，即使资本需求激增。</p>
</div><p>According to estimates presented by the Ministry of Finance at the National Assembly, total investment needs for the 2026-30 period are estimated at VNĐ38.5 quadrillion (US$1.5 trillion), while the State budget can cover only about 20 per cent, leaving the bulk to be mobilised from the private sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据财政部在国会提出的估计，2026-2030 年期间的总投资需求预计为 38.5 万万越南盾（1500 亿美元），而国家预算只能覆盖约 20%，其余大部分需从私营部门筹集。</p>
</div><p>The strain is increasingly visible in the structure of the financial system. Banks, traditionally designed to provide short-term funding, are financing a growing share of medium- and long-term projects, creating maturity mismatches and liquidity risks. Around 40 per cent of total outstanding loans fall into this category, equivalent to roughly 60 per cent of GDP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种压力在金融系统的结构中愈发明显。银行传统上设计用于提供短期融资，但却在为越来越多的中长期项目融资，造成了期限错配和流动性风险。约 40% 的总未偿贷款属于这一类别，相当于 GDP 的约 60%。</p>
</div><p>Data from the State Bank of Vietnam also shows a widening imbalance between credit growth and deposit mobilisation. By the end of 2025, credit had risen by 19.01 per cent, compared with deposit growth of 14.11 per cent. The gap widened further in the first quarter of 2026, with credit up 2.15 per cent against deposit growth of just 0.44 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南国家银行的数据还显示，信贷增长与存款动员之间的不平衡正在加大。到 2025 年底，信贷增长为 19.01%，而存款增长为 14.11%。在 2026 年第一季度，这一差距进一步扩大，信贷增长 2.15%，而存款增长仅为 0.44%。</p>
</div><p>Economists say the imbalance highlights an underdeveloped capital market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家表示，这种不平衡突显了资本市场的不发达。</p>
</div><p>According to Nguyễn Bá Hùng, chief economist at the Asian Development Bank in Việt Nam, the gap between bank credit and the corporate bond market is “unreasonable”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南亚洲开发银行首席经济学家阮伯雄表示，银行信贷与企业债券市场之间的差距是 “不合理的”。</p>
</div><p>In more advanced economies, bond markets play a central role in supplying long-term capital and reducing risks for commercial banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在更先进的经济体中，债券市场在提供长期资本和降低商业银行风险方面发挥着核心作用。</p>
</div><p>In Việt Nam, the corporate bond market accounts for only about 10 per cent of GDP, far below levels seen in developed markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在越南，企业债券市场仅占 GDP 的约 10%，远低于发达市场的水平。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, policymakers have warned that current credit policies could further constrain growth if not adjusted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，政策制定者警告称，如果不进行调整，当前的信贷政策可能会进一步限制增长。</p>
</div><p>Trịnh Xuân An, a National Assembly deputy from Đồng Nai City, said strict credit caps could become a bottleneck to expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自同奈省的国会议员郑春安表示，严格的信贷上限可能会成为扩张的瓶颈。</p>
</div><p>“If credit growth is capped at around 15 per cent, it will be very difficult to create sufficient room for GDP growth of 10 per cent or more,” An said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果信贷增长限制在约 15%，那么创造足够的空间以实现 10% 或更高的 GDP 增长将非常困难，” 安说。</p>
</div><p>He called for a more flexible approach, including selectively raising credit limits for banks with strong asset quality and low non-performing loan ratios, to better channel capital into productive sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他呼吁采取更灵活的方法，包括有选择性地提高资产质量强、不良贷款比例低的银行的信贷限额，以更好地将资本引导到生产性部门。</p>
</div><p>While short-term adjustments to credit policy may ease pressure, experts said long-term solutions would lie in diversifying funding sources.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管对信贷政策的短期调整可能会缓解压力，但专家表示，长期解决方案在于多样化融资来源。</p>
</div><p>FiinGroup Chairman Nguyễn Quang Thuân said Việt Nam could unlock substantial long-term capital if reforms are implemented decisively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FiinGroup 董事长阮光春表示，如果改革果断实施，越南可以释放出大量长期资本。</p>
</div><p>He pointed to a potential upgrade of the country’s stock market from frontier to emerging status as a key catalyst, which could attract stronger inflows from foreign institutional investors through IPOs and mergers and acquisitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，国家股市从前沿市场升级为新兴市场的潜在机会是一个关键催化剂，这可能通过首次公开募股和并购吸引更多外资机构投资者的流入。</p>
</div><p>“This is real, long-term capital that the economy is in need of,” Thuân was quoted as saying on <em>vnbusiness.vn</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是经济所需的真实、长期资本，” 春被引用在_vnbusiness.vn_上说。</p>
</div><p><strong>Investment efficiency</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>投资效率</strong></p>
</div><p>Beyond financial reforms, policymakers are also looking to unlock idle domestic resources.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了金融改革，政策制定者还希望释放闲置的国内资源。</p>
</div><p>An estimated VNĐ3.3 quadrillion ($127 billion) tied up in stalled projects and unused land could be mobilised, nearly three times the planned public investment for 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估计有 3.3 万万越南盾（1270 亿美元）被困在停滞的项目和未使用的土地中，这几乎是 2026 年计划公共投资的三倍。</p>
</div><p>Officials said resolving these bottlenecks would provide an immediate boost to capital supply and support growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官员表示，解决这些瓶颈将立即提升资本供应并支持增长。</p>
</div><p>Improving investment efficiency is another key priority.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>提高投资效率是另一个关键优先事项。</p>
</div><p>Minister of Finance Ngô Văn Tuấn said that without improvements in the incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR), total social investment would need to rise to as much as 70 per cent of GDP to sustain double-digit growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财政部长吴文俊表示，如果不改善增量资本产出比（ICOR），总社会投资需要提高到 GDP 的 70% 才能维持双位数增长。</p>
</div><p>“This is not a sustainable path,” he said, adding that bringing ICOR down to under 4.5 would be essential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这不是可持续的道路，” 他说，并补充说将 ICOR 降低到 4.5 以下是至关重要的。</p>
</div><p>However, he noted that even this target would remain relatively high compared to other Asian economies during their rapid growth phases, such as China (2.7), Japan (3.2) and South Korea (3).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，他指出，即使这个目标与其他亚洲经济体在快速增长阶段的水平相比仍然相对较高，例如中国（2.7）、日本（3.2）和韩国（3）。</p>
</div><p>As Việt Nam aims to become a high-income economy by 2045, analysts say the transition from a bank-dependent system to a more balanced financial model – supported by deeper capital markets and more efficient investment – will be critical. — BIZHUB/VNS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着越南目标在 2045 年成为高收入经济体，分析人士表示，从依赖银行的系统转向更平衡的金融模型——由更深的资本市场和更高效的投资支持，将是至关重要的。—— BIZHUB/VNS</p>
</div>

随着越南寻求新的增长动力，银行主导的融资模式面临压力