<p>作者：Jeffry Bartash</p>
<p>经济在宏观障碍面前持续扩张</p>
<p>美国经济似乎处于自动驾驶状态</p>
<p>看似不可沉没的美国经济继续前行。</p>
<p>连续第二个月，企业创造的就业岗位远超华尔街的预期。其他近期指标也指向美国经济的稳定增长。</p>
<p>阅读：经济新增 115,000 个就业岗位，失业率保持在 4.3%</p>
<p>就在一个月前，许多经济学家预计伊朗战争后油价飙升将对增长产生压力。更高的燃料费用将推高通胀，抑制消费者支出，并促使企业暂停招聘和投资计划。</p>
<p>通胀确实上升了，更高的油价给美国家庭带来了压力。然而，经济仍以高于平均水平的速度持续扩张并创造新就业。</p>
<p>这是为什么呢？</p>
<p>最近美国经济增长的主要来源是企业在人工智能等新技术上的大量投资。企业不想被落下，他们感到现在投资的紧迫性。</p>
<p>消费者支出，通常是经济的主要引擎，虽然没有那么强劲，但也并非停滞不前。</p>
<p>一些分析师认为，经济的韧性主要源于企业利润与低失业率之间的共生关系。</p>
<p>FactSet 的一项新研究显示，标普 500 指数（S&amp;P 500）在第一季度的利润率可能达到了历史最高水平。更高的利润率使企业能够吸收特朗普关税和与伊朗战争相关的油价上涨的成本。同时，企业可以维持当前的就业水平并增加投资。</p>
<p>由于失业率低至 4.3%，大多数美国人对自己的工作感到安全。他们能够继续购买企业生产的商品和服务。</p>
<p>由于销售增长和利润高企，企业几乎没有必要裁员或削减岗位。</p>
<p>因此，形成了经济增长的良性循环。</p>
<p>“经济远比悲观派所说的要好得多，” 北光资产管理公司的首席投资官 Chris Zaccerelli 表示。“有很多逆风——更高的油价、顽固的通胀和长期高利率——然而劳动力市场仍在增加就业，GDP 在增长，企业利润也在快速扩张。”</p>
<p>对经济的新乐观情绪在伊朗战争爆发后华尔街的巨大反弹中显而易见，尽管战争导致股票在三月暴跌。</p>
<p>正如 MarketWatch 上周详细报道的，自疫情衰退结束以来，美国经济一次又一次地摆脱了重创。六年的经济扩张不可能永远持续，但只要劳动力市场稳定，利润保持高位，它可以持续相当长的时间。</p>
<p>然而，不可沉没并不意味着不可动摇。</p>
<p>一些分析师警告称，更高油价的全面影响尚未完全显现于经济中。他们表示，更多的通胀即将到来，这将在夏季对经济造成更大压力。</p>
<p>更高的油价将特别伤害中低收入的美国人，可能会抑制消费者支出。</p>
<p>直到最近，悲观者认为，消费者支出一直受到最新的特朗普减税和比平常更大额度的退税的支撑。这些退税现在大部分已经花完，未来不会再有太大帮助。</p>
<p>“虽然退税为来自中东的通胀冲击提供了一次性缓冲，但下降的 [通胀调整后] 工资将在未来几个月侵蚀支出，” EY Parthenon 的经济学家 Gregory Daco 和 Lydia Boussour 表示。</p>
<p>最近的招聘加速也引发了怀疑。</p>
<p>四月和三月的连续就业增长——自 2024 年底以来最强劲的增长——可能无法持续，他们表示，基于低水平的职位空缺和企业谨慎的调查结果。</p>
<p>“我们对这些更强劲的三月和四月数据是否标志着就业创造突然上升趋势的开始持怀疑态度，” ING 的首席国际经济学家 James Knightley 表示。</p>
<p>也许不是。然而，只要在失业率保持低位的情况下，招聘略有上升，就足以为经济提供所需的支持，继续增长。</p>
<p>“更强劲的就业增长和稳定的失业率强化了经济韧性的叙述，” Edward Jones 的高级策略师 Angelo Kouortkafsa 表示。“即使在能源成本上升的情况下，这些趋势仍然支持消费者支出。”</p>
<p>-Jeffry Bartash</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>05-09-26 0900ET</p>

纳斯达克综合指数

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克 100 指数

<p>美国经济在伊朗战争导致油价上涨的挑战下仍在持续扩张。就业创造超出预期，失业率为 4.3%。企业在新技术上的投资力度很大，支持了经济增长。尽管通货膨胀上升，企业利润依然高企，使得公司能够维持就业水平。然而，分析师警告称，油价上涨的全面影响可能会对消费者支出造成压力，特别是对低收入家庭。尽管对可持续性存在一些怀疑，劳动力市场的稳定性和企业利润被视为经济持续韧性的关键</p>

<p>By Jeffry Bartash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Jeffry Bartash</p>
</div><p>The economy keeps expanding in the face of macro obstacles</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济在宏观障碍面前持续扩张</p>
</div><p>The U.S. economy appears to be in cruise control</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国经济似乎处于自动驾驶状态</p>
</div><p>The apparently unsinkable U.S. economy cruises on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看似不可沉没的美国经济继续前行。</p>
</div><p>For the second month in a row, businesses created a lot more jobs than Wall Street expected. Other recent indicators also pointed to steady growth in the U.S. economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>连续第二个月，企业创造的就业岗位远超华尔街的预期。其他近期指标也指向美国经济的稳定增长。</p>
</div><p>Read: Economy adds 115,000 jobs and unemployment stays at 4.3%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：经济新增 115,000 个就业岗位，失业率保持在 4.3%</p>
</div><p>Just a month ago, many economists were expecting the surge in oil prices after the Iran war to weigh on growth. Higher fuel expenses would raise inflation, crimp consumer spending and prod businesses to put hiring and investment plans on hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在一个月前，许多经济学家预计伊朗战争后油价飙升将对增长产生压力。更高的燃料费用将推高通胀，抑制消费者支出，并促使企业暂停招聘和投资计划。</p>
</div><p>Inflation has risen all right, and higher gas prices are putting a strain on U.S. households. Yet the economy has continued to expand at an above-average pace and create new jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀确实上升了，更高的油价给美国家庭带来了压力。然而，经济仍以高于平均水平的速度持续扩张并创造新就业。</p>
</div><p>How come?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是为什么呢？</p>
</div><p>The chief source of U.S. growth lately is heavy businesses investment in new technologies such as artificial intelligence. Companies don't want to get left behind and they feel an urgency to invest now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近美国经济增长的主要来源是企业在人工智能等新技术上的大量投资。企业不想被落下，他们感到现在投资的紧迫性。</p>
</div><p>Consumer spending, normally the main engine of the economy, hasn't been as strong. But it's certainly not sputtering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者支出，通常是经济的主要引擎，虽然没有那么强劲，但也并非停滞不前。</p>
</div><p>The resilience of the economy largely stems from the symbiotic relationship between corporate profits and low unemployment, some analysts contend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些分析师认为，经济的韧性主要源于企业利润与低失业率之间的共生关系。</p>
</div><p>Profit margins of the S&amp;P 500 SPX in the first quarter may have reached a record high, a new FactSet study showed. Higher margins have allowed companies to absorb the cost of the Trump tariffs and rising oil prices (CL00) tied to the Iran war. At the same time, companies can maintain current employment levels and boost investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FactSet 的一项新研究显示，标普 500 指数（S&amp;P 500）在第一季度的利润率可能达到了历史最高水平。更高的利润率使企业能够吸收特朗普关税和与伊朗战争相关的油价上涨的成本。同时，企业可以维持当前的就业水平并增加投资。</p>
</div><p>With unemployment low at 4.3%, most Americans are secure in their jobs. They can afford to keep buying goods and services produced by businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于失业率低至 4.3%，大多数美国人对自己的工作感到安全。他们能够继续购买企业生产的商品和服务。</p>
</div><p>Since sales are growing and profits are high, businesses have little need to resort to layoffs or cut jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于销售增长和利润高企，企业几乎没有必要裁员或削减岗位。</p>
</div><p>Thus, a virtuous cycle of economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，形成了经济增长的良性循环。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The economy is so much better than what the doom crew has been saying,&#34; said Chris Zaccerelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. &#34;There are a lot of headwinds - higher oil prices, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates - and yet the labor market is adding jobs, GDP is growing and corporate profits are expanding at a rapid pace.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“经济远比悲观派所说的要好得多，” 北光资产管理公司的首席投资官 Chris Zaccerelli 表示。“有很多逆风——更高的油价、顽固的通胀和长期高利率——然而劳动力市场仍在增加就业，GDP 在增长，企业利润也在快速扩张。”</p>
</div><p>Fresh optimism about the economy is evident in the huge rally on Wall Street after the outbreak of the Iran war sent stocks tumbling in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对经济的新乐观情绪在伊朗战争爆发后华尔街的巨大反弹中显而易见，尽管战争导致股票在三月暴跌。</p>
</div><p>As MarketWatch detailed last week, the U.S. economy has repeatedly shrugged off one blow after another since the end of the pandemic recession. The six-year-old economic expansion can't go on forever, but it can go on for quite a while - as long as the labor market is stable and profits remain high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如 MarketWatch 上周详细报道的，自疫情衰退结束以来，美国经济一次又一次地摆脱了重创。六年的经济扩张不可能永远持续，但只要劳动力市场稳定，利润保持高位，它可以持续相当长的时间。</p>
</div><p>Yet unsinkable doesn't mean unshakable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，不可沉没并不意味着不可动摇。</p>
</div><p>Some analysts warn the full effects of higher oil prices still haven't worked their way through the economy. More inflation is on the way, they say, and that will put a greater strain on the economy over the summer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些分析师警告称，更高油价的全面影响尚未完全显现于经济中。他们表示，更多的通胀即将到来，这将在夏季对经济造成更大压力。</p>
</div><p>Higher gas prices will especially hurt middle- and lower-income Americans, potentially putting a lid on consumer spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的油价将特别伤害中低收入的美国人，可能会抑制消费者支出。</p>
</div><p>Until very recently, pessimists argue, consumer spending had been propped up by the latest Trump tax cuts and bigger-than-usual tax refunds. The refunds have been mostly spent by now and won't help much longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>直到最近，悲观者认为，消费者支出一直受到最新的特朗普减税和比平常更大额度的退税的支撑。这些退税现在大部分已经花完，未来不会再有太大帮助。</p>
</div><p>&#34;While tax refunds provided a one-time buffer to the inflation shock from the Middle East, falling [inflation-adjusted] wages will bite into spending in the coming months,&#34; said economists Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour of EY Parthenon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然退税为来自中东的通胀冲击提供了一次性缓冲，但下降的 [通胀调整后] 工资将在未来几个月侵蚀支出，” EY Parthenon 的经济学家 Gregory Daco 和 Lydia Boussour 表示。</p>
</div><p>The recent acceleration in hiring also has doubters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的招聘加速也引发了怀疑。</p>
</div><p>The back-to-back job gains in April and March - the strongest seen since the end of 2024 - probably can't be sustained, they say, based on the low level of job openings and surveys showing caution on the part of businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四月和三月的连续就业增长——自 2024 年底以来最强劲的增长——可能无法持续，他们表示，基于低水平的职位空缺和企业谨慎的调查结果。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We are doubtful that these firmer March and April numbers mark the start of a sudden upward trend in job creation,&#34; said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们对这些更强劲的三月和四月数据是否标志着就业创造突然上升趋势的开始持怀疑态度，” ING 的首席国际经济学家 James Knightley 表示。</p>
</div><p>Maybe not. Yet hiring only has to rise modestly while unemployment stays low to give the economy all the support it needs to keep growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许不是。然而，只要在失业率保持低位的情况下，招聘略有上升，就足以为经济提供所需的支持，继续增长。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Stronger job gains and steady unemployment reinforce the economic resilience narrative,&#34; said Angelo Kouortkafsa, senior strategist at Edward Jones. &#34;These trends remain supportive of consumer spending, even in the face of higher energy costs.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“更强劲的就业增长和稳定的失业率强化了经济韧性的叙述，” Edward Jones 的高级策略师 Angelo Kouortkafsa 表示。“即使在能源成本上升的情况下，这些趋势仍然支持消费者支出。”</p>
</div><p>-Jeffry Bartash</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Jeffry Bartash</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>05-09-26 0900ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-09-26 0900ET</p>
</div>

The unsinkable U.S. economy cruises on, despite headwinds from the Iran war

- 美国经济持续增长，超出华尔街预期，新增就业 115,000 个。  
- 主要推动力为企业在新技术上的投资，尽管通胀和油价上涨造成压力。  
- 低失业率和高企业利润维持了消费支出，形成经济增长的良性循环。

尽管伊朗战争带来了阻力，美国经济依然稳步前行