<p>股市正在创下新的历史高点，而伯克希尔哈撒韦正在建立一个现金堡垒。这种紧张关系向投资者传达了一个重要信息，关于我们在这个周期中的位置。</p>
<p>詹姆斯·厄尔利，Curia Financial 的创始人以及长期的巴菲特追随者，本月早些时候参加了在奥马哈举行的伯克希尔哈撒韦年度会议。他所看到的让他更愿意削减持仓，而不是增加持仓。</p>
<p>获取 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的提醒：</p>
<h2>伯克希尔的现金储备发出了信号</h2>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦 NYSE: BRK.B 目前持有大约 3470 亿美元的现金——几乎占其总市值的 40%。</p>
<p>该公司在上个季度回购了大约 2 亿美元的自家股票，但与如此规模的现金储备相比，这只是一个微不足道的数字。</p>
<p>与此同时，格雷格·阿贝尔在三个月前接任首席执行官，正在主持他作为全球最受关注公司的首届年度会议。</p>
<p>厄尔利形容阿贝尔是稳健但不具电力感的。他说：“你无法替代不可替代的人。” 这是对巴菲特和已故的查理·芒格的评价。</p>
<p>但更紧迫的问题不是谁在主持会议，而是为什么这么多现金闲置，而市场却在不断上涨。</p>
<p>巴菲特在会议上提供了一个发人深省的框架：市场总是教堂与赌场的混合体，而最近赌场那一边的流量在增加。这不是预测——而是一种姿态。伯克希尔的行动也支持了这一点。</p>
<h2>业绩差距是真实存在的——原因很重要</h2>
<p>在过去十年中，BRK.B 的表现落后于标准普尔 500 指数约 2.6 个百分点年化。在过去一年中，这一差距扩大到约 39 个百分点。这不是噪音。这是一个故事。</p>
<h3>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.B) 2026 年 5 月 9 日的价格图表</h3>
<p>厄尔利的回答很直接：七大巨头。</p>
<p>市场对大型科技股的收益倍数大约是标准普尔其他公司的两倍。这并不是因为收益增长有显著差异，而是因为投资者在定价时考虑了显著更高的预期。</p>
<p>伯克希尔拥有铁路、保险公司和能源资产，并不参与这一交易。</p>
<p>历史上的类比令人不安但却富有启发性。在 1999 年，巴菲特看起来同样迷失。头条新闻宣称他失去了优势。然后互联网泡沫破裂，他在 18 个月内得到了证明。他之前也做过这样的举动：持有现金，等待街头的血流成河，在下跌过程中收购。</p>
<p>厄尔利无法确定的问题是，2025 年是否同样的策略有效。</p>
<h2>人工智能是伯克希尔最暴露的领域</h2>
<p>伯克希尔私有投资组合中的技术差距比大多数投资者意识到的要明显。</p>
<p>格雷格·阿贝尔在会议上承认，伯灵顿北方圣菲在技术采用上大约落后于联合太平洋 NYSE: UNP 近十年。GEICO 在与 Progressive NYSE: PGR 的竞争中也面临类似的局面，后者是 1990 年代末首批在线销售保单的保险公司之一，并且从未回头。</p>
<p>厄尔利对阿贝尔言论的粗略解读是：他关于人工智能的评论中大约 80% 集中在风险上，而不是机会。这不是一家迎合时势的公司，而是一家在旁观。</p>
<p>在公开股权方面，伯克希尔取得了一些进展。苹果 NASDAQ: AAPL 成为其最大的回报驱动因素，投资组合近年来还增加了 Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGL 和亚马逊 NASDAQ: AMZN。但这些举动来自投资组合经理托德·科姆斯和泰德·韦施勒，而不是巴菲特本人——而科姆斯已经离开。</p>
<h2>反向投资的案例：Constellation Software</h2>
<p>厄尔利并没有放弃价值投资。他在更新它。他目前的坚定选择是 Constellation Software OTCMKTS: CNSWF，他形容这家公司是 “以最巴菲特的方式参与 SaaS 抛售。”</p>
<p>Constellation 由马克·伦纳德创立，历史上悄然收购了 500 到 1000 家垂直市场软件公司——这些是小型、利基的企业，拥有长期合同、创始人主导的文化和高客户留存率。伦纳德最近因健康原因从日常运营中退下，马克·米勒现在担任总裁。</p>
<p>由于对人工智能的恐惧，该股票遭受重创：假设大型语言模型将简单地取代这些公司提供的专业软件。厄尔利认为这种逻辑被夸大了。</p>
<p>即使人工智能复制了垂直整合软件公司 90% 到 95% 的功能，但它遗漏的 5% 可能会给依赖它的企业带来灾难性的风险。这些关系不是你可以轻易替换的。</p>
<p>这种风险/回报的设置——为一个可能不会到来的人工智能末日定价的优质软件资产——正是巴菲特一直在追寻的错误估值。不同之处在于，投资于 Constellation 是在技术领域进行猎捕，而不是完全避免技术。</p>
<h2>这个市场时刻真正意味着什么</h2>
<p>厄尔利将其比作早期互联网时代：在 2000 年拒绝网站的公司在回顾时显得荒谬。人工智能可能承载着更长远的影响。炒作周期会修正——它总是如此——但在任何十年期的视角下，潜在的转型可能被低估。</p>
<p>伯克希尔面临的风险不仅仅是业绩不佳。铁路可能会被自动驾驶卡车所颠覆。没有人工智能驱动的承保的保险公司可能会永久失去市场份额。持有现金等待崩盘意味着错过其他地方已经发生的复合增长。</p>
<p>厄尔利仍然持有他的伯克希尔股票；他只是没有增加持仓。值得一提的是，他对 Constellation Software 的思考更加深入。</p>
<p>市场最终会理清哪些是定价正确的，哪些不是。值得关注的设置是：伯克希尔的现金储备是否会成为武器——还是仅仅是一个记录。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在伯克希尔哈撒韦吗？</h2>
<p>在你考虑伯克希尔哈撒韦之前，你会想听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只顶级分析师悄悄建议客户现在购买的股票，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而伯克希尔哈撒韦并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦目前在分析师中被评为持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

1 倍做空 BRKB ETF - Direxion

<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦持有 3470 亿美元现金，在过去一年中落后于标准普尔 500 指数 39 点。分析师 James Early 建议将 Constellation Software 视为一个有价值的替代选择，指出伯克希尔的表现不佳和现金储备。首席执行官 Greg Abel 在技术采纳方面滞后，引发了对伯克希尔在科技领域地位的担忧。尽管在公共股权方面有所进展，但该公司被视为谨慎而非积极主动。Early 提倡投资 Constellation Software，认为它是在软件市场面临人工智能颠覆担忧时一个有前景的投资</p>

<p>The stock market is hitting new all-time highs, and Berkshire Hathaway is building a cash fortress. That tension tells investors something important about where we are in this cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市正在创下新的历史高点，而伯克希尔哈撒韦正在建立一个现金堡垒。这种紧张关系向投资者传达了一个重要信息，关于我们在这个周期中的位置。</p>
</div><p>James Early, founder of Curia Financial and a longtime Buffett follower, attended the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in Omaha earlier this month. What he saw left him more willing to trim his position than add to it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>詹姆斯·厄尔利，Curia Financial 的创始人以及长期的巴菲特追随者，本月早些时候参加了在奥马哈举行的伯克希尔哈撒韦年度会议。他所看到的让他更愿意削减持仓，而不是增加持仓。</p>
</div><p>Get <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> alerts:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的提醒：</p>
</div><h2>Berkshire's Cash Pile Is Sending a Signal</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯克希尔的现金储备发出了信号</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway NYSE: BRK.B is sitting on roughly $347 billion in cash—nearly 40% of its total market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦 NYSE: BRK.B 目前持有大约 3470 亿美元的现金——几乎占其总市值的 40%。</p>
</div><p>The company did repurchase about $200 million of its own stock last quarter, but that's a rounding error against a cash hoard that size.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司在上个季度回购了大约 2 亿美元的自家股票，但与如此规模的现金储备相比，这只是一个微不足道的数字。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Greg Abel, who took over as CEO three months ago, is running his first annual meeting at the helm of one of the world's most closely watched companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，格雷格·阿贝尔在三个月前接任首席执行官，正在主持他作为全球最受关注公司的首届年度会议。</p>
</div><p>Early describes Abel as solid but not electric. &#34;You can't replace the irreplaceable,&#34; he says of Buffett and the late Charlie Munger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>厄尔利形容阿贝尔是稳健但不具电力感的。他说：“你无法替代不可替代的人。” 这是对巴菲特和已故的查理·芒格的评价。</p>
</div><p>But the more pressing question isn't who's running the meeting; it's why so much cash is sitting idle while the market keeps climbing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但更紧迫的问题不是谁在主持会议，而是为什么这么多现金闲置，而市场却在不断上涨。</p>
</div><p>Buffett offered one telling frame at the meeting: the market is always a mix of church and casino, and lately the casino side has been getting more traffic. That's not a forecast—it's a posture. And Berkshire's actions back it up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在会议上提供了一个发人深省的框架：市场总是教堂与赌场的混合体，而最近赌场那一边的流量在增加。这不是预测——而是一种姿态。伯克希尔的行动也支持了这一点。</p>
</div><h2>The Underperformance Gap Is Real—and the Reason Matters</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>业绩差距是真实存在的——原因很重要</h2>
</div><p>Over the past decade, BRK.B has trailed the S&amp;P 500 by roughly 2.6 percentage points annualized. Over the past year alone, that gap has blown out to approximately 39 percentage points. That's not noise. It's a story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去十年中，BRK.B 的表现落后于标准普尔 500 指数约 2.6 个百分点年化。在过去一年中，这一差距扩大到约 39 个百分点。这不是噪音。这是一个故事。</p>
</div><h3>Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) Price Chart for Saturday, May, 9, 2026</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.B) 2026 年 5 月 9 日的价格图表</h3>
</div><p>Early's answer is blunt: the Magnificent Seven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>厄尔利的回答很直接：七大巨头。</p>
</div><p>The market has applied roughly double the earnings multiple to mega-cap tech compared to the rest of the S&amp;P. And not because earnings growth has been dramatically different, but because investors are pricing in dramatically higher expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场对大型科技股的收益倍数大约是标准普尔其他公司的两倍。这并不是因为收益增长有显著差异，而是因为投资者在定价时考虑了显著更高的预期。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire, with its railroads, insurance companies, and energy holdings, isn't in that trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔拥有铁路、保险公司和能源资产，并不参与这一交易。</p>
</div><p>The historical parallel is uncomfortable but instructive. In 1999, Buffett looked just as lost. Headlines declared he'd lost his edge. Then the dot-com bubble burst, and he was vindicated within 18 months. He's made this move before: hold cash, wait for blood in the streets, acquire on the way down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上的类比令人不安但却富有启发性。在 1999 年，巴菲特看起来同样迷失。头条新闻宣称他失去了优势。然后互联网泡沫破裂，他在 18 个月内得到了证明。他之前也做过这样的举动：持有现金，等待街头的血流成河，在下跌过程中收购。</p>
</div><p>The question Early can't answer with certainty is whether the same playbook works in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>厄尔利无法确定的问题是，2025 年是否同样的策略有效。</p>
</div><h2>AI Is Where Berkshire Is Most Exposed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能是伯克希尔最暴露的领域</h2>
</div><p>The technology gap inside Berkshire's private portfolio is clearer than most investors realize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔私有投资组合中的技术差距比大多数投资者意识到的要明显。</p>
</div><p>Greg Abel acknowledged at the meeting that Burlington Northern Santa Fe is roughly a decade behind Union Pacific NYSE: UNP in technology adoption. GEICO faces a similar story against Progressive NYSE: PGR, which was among the first insurers to sell policies online in the late 1990s and has never looked back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>格雷格·阿贝尔在会议上承认，伯灵顿北方圣菲在技术采用上大约落后于联合太平洋 NYSE: UNP 近十年。GEICO 在与 Progressive NYSE: PGR 的竞争中也面临类似的局面，后者是 1990 年代末首批在线销售保单的保险公司之一，并且从未回头。</p>
</div><p>Early's rough read of Abel's remarks: about 80% of his AI commentary focused on risk, not opportunity. That's not a company leaning into the moment. It's one watching it go by.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>厄尔利对阿贝尔言论的粗略解读是：他关于人工智能的评论中大约 80% 集中在风险上，而不是机会。这不是一家迎合时势的公司，而是一家在旁观。</p>
</div><p>On the public equity side, Berkshire has made progress. Apple NASDAQ: AAPL became its single biggest return driver, and the portfolio has added Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGL and Amazon NASDAQ: AMZN in recent years. But those moves came from portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, not from Buffett himself—and Combs has since departed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在公开股权方面，伯克希尔取得了一些进展。苹果 NASDAQ: AAPL 成为其最大的回报驱动因素，投资组合近年来还增加了 Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGL 和亚马逊 NASDAQ: AMZN。但这些举动来自投资组合经理托德·科姆斯和泰德·韦施勒，而不是巴菲特本人——而科姆斯已经离开。</p>
</div><h2>The Contrarian Case for Constellation Software</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>反向投资的案例：Constellation Software</h2>
</div><p>Early isn't abandoning value investing. He's updating it. His current conviction pick is Constellation Software OTCMKTS: CNSWF, a company he describes as &#34;the most Buffett-like way to play the SaaS selloff.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>厄尔利并没有放弃价值投资。他在更新它。他目前的坚定选择是 Constellation Software OTCMKTS: CNSWF，他形容这家公司是 “以最巴菲特的方式参与 SaaS 抛售。”</p>
</div><p>Founded by Mark Leonard, Constellation has quietly acquired between 500 and 1,000 vertical market software companies over its history—small, niche businesses with long-term contracts, founder-led cultures, and high customer retention. Leonard recently stepped back from day-to-day operations for health reasons, with Mark Miller now serving as president.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Constellation 由马克·伦纳德创立，历史上悄然收购了 500 到 1000 家垂直市场软件公司——这些是小型、利基的企业，拥有长期合同、创始人主导的文化和高客户留存率。伦纳德最近因健康原因从日常运营中退下，马克·米勒现在担任总裁。</p>
</div><p>The stock has been hammered on AI fears: the assumption that large language models will simply replace the specialized software these companies provide. Early thinks that logic is overdone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于对人工智能的恐惧，该股票遭受重创：假设大型语言模型将简单地取代这些公司提供的专业软件。厄尔利认为这种逻辑被夸大了。</p>
</div><p>Even if AI replicates 90% to 95% of what a vertically integrated software company does, the 5% it misses could create catastrophic risk for the businesses relying on it. Those aren't relationships you rip out for a vibe-coded alternative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使人工智能复制了垂直整合软件公司 90% 到 95% 的功能，但它遗漏的 5% 可能会给依赖它的企业带来灾难性的风险。这些关系不是你可以轻易替换的。</p>
</div><p>That risk/reward setup—quality software assets priced for an AI apocalypse that probably isn't coming—is exactly the kind of misvaluation Buffett has always hunted. The difference? Investing in Constellation is hunting it in technology rather than avoiding technology altogether.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种风险/回报的设置——为一个可能不会到来的人工智能末日定价的优质软件资产——正是巴菲特一直在追寻的错误估值。不同之处在于，投资于 Constellation 是在技术领域进行猎捕，而不是完全避免技术。</p>
</div><h2>What This Market Moment Is Really About</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这个市场时刻真正意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>Early draws an analogy to the early internet era: companies that dismissed websites in 2000 look absurd in retrospect. AI may carry even more long-term weight. The hype cycle will correct—it always does—but the underlying transformation is likely underestimated over any decade-long horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>厄尔利将其比作早期互联网时代：在 2000 年拒绝网站的公司在回顾时显得荒谬。人工智能可能承载着更长远的影响。炒作周期会修正——它总是如此——但在任何十年期的视角下，潜在的转型可能被低估。</p>
</div><p>The risk for Berkshire isn't just underperformance. It's that railroads could be disrupted by autonomous trucking. That insurers without AI-driven underwriting lose ground permanently. That holding cash while waiting for a crash means missing the compounding that's already happening elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔面临的风险不仅仅是业绩不佳。铁路可能会被自动驾驶卡车所颠覆。没有人工智能驱动的承保的保险公司可能会永久失去市场份额。持有现金等待崩盘意味着错过其他地方已经发生的复合增长。</p>
</div><p>Early still holds his Berkshire shares; he's just not adding. And for what it's worth, he's thinking harder about Consellation Software instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>厄尔利仍然持有他的伯克希尔股票；他只是没有增加持仓。值得一提的是，他对 Constellation Software 的思考更加深入。</p>
</div><p>The market will eventually sort out what's priced right and what isn't. The setup worth watching: whether Berkshire's cash pile becomes a weapon—or just a record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场最终会理清哪些是定价正确的，哪些不是。值得关注的设置是：伯克希尔的现金储备是否会成为武器——还是仅仅是一个记录。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Berkshire Hathaway Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在伯克希尔哈撒韦吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Berkshire Hathaway, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你考虑伯克希尔哈撒韦之前，你会想听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Berkshire Hathaway wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只顶级分析师悄悄建议客户现在购买的股票，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而伯克希尔哈撒韦并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Berkshire Hathaway currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦目前在分析师中被评为持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

Buffett Spent 60 Years Ignoring Tech and the Bill Is Coming Due

- 伯克希尔·哈撒韦现金储备约 $3470 亿，约占市值的 40%。
- 该公司在过去十年表现逊色于标准普尔 500，年均落后约 2.6%。
- 投资者对 AI 及其长期影响的关注日益增加，尤其在技术领域。

巴菲特 60 年来一直忽视科技领域，如今代价即将显现