<p>投资者正在寻找特朗普总统与习近平主席之间缓解紧张局势的进一步迹象，以帮助消除对中国市场的压制，地缘政治和贸易问题成为焦点。</p>
<p>分析师表示，尽管世界两大经济体之间达成具体协议的预期仍然较低，但两位领导人的会晤可能会缓解两国之间的贸易紧张关系。任何此类改善，加上可能放宽对美国技术出口中国的限制，都可能提振中国出口商和科技硬件制造商。</p>
<p>5 月 14 日至 15 日两位领导人之间的成功会晤可能会为中国股市提供额外的提振，尽管在 4 月份区域市场因对伊朗战争的担忧减轻而反弹时，中国股市表现滞后于其亚洲同行。随着美元回落，人民币走强的乐观情绪也在逐渐形成。另一方面，任何结构性分歧可能会重新点燃当地股票的波动性。</p>
<p>“如果峰会能够为美中关系带来更多的确定性，并降低风险溢价，这最终将对中国股市非常积极，” Invesco 亚太区（日本除外）客户解决方案负责人克里斯托弗·汉密尔顿表示。</p>
<p>市场参与者在峰会前关注的领域包括：</p>
<h2>贸易关税</h2>
<p>根据麦格理集团的说法，关税的基本情况是保持不变而没有实质性升级。根据摩根大通的估计，目前对中国商品的美国关税有效税率约为 22%，正在进行调查，中国已将这些调查视为摩擦的来源。</p>
<h3>在新的全球秩序中驾驭亚洲</h3>
<p>获取洞察，直接发送到您的邮箱。</p>
<p>“进一步紧张局势的缺失在一定程度上改善了更广泛的中国出口商的可见性，降低了升级风险，并提供了更好的供应链确定性，即使现有关税仍然限制了上行空间，” 麦格理香港的中国股票策略负责人尤金·萧表示。</p>
<p>虽然与能源安全或全球科技供应链相关的公司可能会获得豁免，但更高的关税对生物科技公司，尤其是那些在美国收入占比较大的公司，如药明生物（开曼）和药明康德，将特别具有挑战性，这些公司已经受到美国生物安全法的压力。</p>
<h2>中东冲突</h2>
<p>伊朗战争为美中紧张关系增加了额外的压力。华盛顿对德黑兰施加更大压力的努力越来越影响到中国，而中国仍然是伊朗最大的贸易伙伴，也是其石油出口的主要买家。美国还对在亚洲国家加工伊朗石油的炼油厂实施了制裁。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4dbcdc1aafbe8282a24cb7947281edf3aa26b6e449b17fb1ac8379b093fafffa/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4dbcdc1aafbe8282a24cb7947281edf3aa26b6e449b17fb1ac8379b093fafffa/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>美中峰会：管理竞争，而非解决竞争</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5c0775d3b3d1bcaf5ccafa07c2f9960d558ea8665cf8d6598eb71a91acaf5af0/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5c0775d3b3d1bcaf5ccafa07c2f9960d558ea8665cf8d6598eb71a91acaf5af0/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>人工智能军备竞赛与中国阻止 Manus 以 20 亿美元出售给 Meta 的努力，解析</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9da6fdd5a4c3dcf8339f0f6e2615a7e47d3d3b67ad7fb02127c09ab527b2da4e/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9da6fdd5a4c3dcf8339f0f6e2615a7e47d3d3b67ad7fb02127c09ab527b2da4e/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>美国对中国石油巨头恒力的制裁加大了对小炼油厂的压力</h3>
<p>特朗普表示，他将在峰会上与习近平讨论伊朗战争。缓解这一方面的紧张局势的信号可能有助于改善风险情绪，分析师指出，两位领导人的会晤往往会引发股市的剧烈波动。</p>
<p>“虽然中国经济在短期内具有韧性，但双方在迅速解决中东冲突、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以及平息其他潜在的瓶颈方面都有强烈的利益，” 摩根大通首席中国经济学家冯竹领导的分析师在 5 月 8 日的报告中写道。</p>
<h2>技术限制</h2>
<p>在会议前，关于芯片技术的紧张局势加剧，美国监管机构据报道已停止向华虹半导体发运工具。这是在北京阻止 Meta Platforms 以 20 亿美元收购人工智能初创公司 Manus，以保持尖端技术在其境内的举动之后。</p>
<p>根据杰富瑞金融集团的分析师，包括埃迪森·李，华盛顿可能会适度放宽芯片设备出口管制，允许更先进的 14 纳米和 7 纳米芯片的工具出口，或非正式地向华虹和上海华力微电子等特定公司提供豁免，这将对本地企业有利。</p>
<p>一些分析师对停火持谨慎态度，因为两国仍在争夺人工智能的主导地位。尽管如此，考虑到北京推动减少对外国技术的依赖，国内芯片制造商可能仍会继续吸引资本流入。</p>
<h2>稀土</h2>
<p>稀土预计将成为特朗普寻求确保从中国的运输的关键话题，中国占全球供应的 70% 以上。自 2025 年 10 月底以来，美中政策围绕脆弱的缓和展开，习近平暂停了对稀土元素的出口限制，而特朗普则推迟了对中国获取重要美国技术的限制。</p>
<p>这些摩擦推动了中国最大生产商的股价上涨，包括中国北方稀土（集团）高科技和厦门钨业，过去一年股价翻了一番以上。</p>
<p>特朗普与习近平的会晤 “可能会狭隘地集中在贸易和出口管制上——包括关税、中国对美国商品（如大豆、能源和飞机）的采购，以及稳定的稀土流动，” 高盛集团的经济学家，包括安德鲁·蒂尔顿表示。</p>
<h2>农业采购</h2>
<p>“除了传达稳定性外，北京可能会为美国出口提供新的采购承诺，可能包括大豆、其他农产品、石油和天然气以及民用飞机，” 咨询公司 Teneo 的董事总经理加布里埃尔·维尔道表示。</p>
<p>根据摩根大通的分析，增加大豆采购可能改善中国食品生产商的成本结构，例如佛山海天调味食品、君杰高科技工业与商业控股和千禾调味食品。</p>
<p>中国可能还会选择从美国购买更多的猪肉、牛肉和家禽，这可能会影响已经因价格下滑而受到压力的本地养猪行业。自 2025 年 9 月中旬以来，行业领导者如牧原食品、温氏食品集团和新希望六和的股价已下跌超过 15%，表现不及基准。BLOOMBERG</p>
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稀土战略金属指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

中概股 ETF - PowerShares

中国 MSCI ETF - iShares

德银基础金属 ETF - PowerShares

富时中国香港大盘股 ETF - iShares

广发中证稀有金属ETF

中概互联网指数 ETF - KraneShares

金属采矿 ETF - SPDR

全球金属和采矿生产商 MSCI ETF - iShares

中国龙 ETF - Roundhill

<p>投资者密切关注即将举行的特朗普总统与习近平主席的峰会，希望能看到缓解影响中国市场的贸易紧张局势的迹象。分析师表示，尽管对达成具体协议的期望较低，但美中关系的任何改善都可能惠及中国出口商和科技公司。重点关注的领域包括贸易关税、中东冲突、科技出口限制和稀土。成功的会议可能会提振中国股市，而未解决的问题可能会导致市场波动加剧</p>

<p>INVESTORS are looking for further signs of easing tensions between President Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping to help remove an overhang on Chinese markets, with geopolitical and trade issues in focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者正在寻找特朗普总统与习近平主席之间缓解紧张局势的进一步迹象，以帮助消除对中国市场的压制，地缘政治和贸易问题成为焦点。</p>
</div><p>Expectations for a concrete deal between the world’s two largest economies remain low, though the meeting of the two leaders may calm trade tensions between their countries, analysts say. Any such improvement, along with a potential easing of curbs on US tech exports to China, could boost Chinese exporters and tech hardware makers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师表示，尽管世界两大经济体之间达成具体协议的预期仍然较低，但两位领导人的会晤可能会缓解两国之间的贸易紧张关系。任何此类改善，加上可能放宽对美国技术出口中国的限制，都可能提振中国出口商和科技硬件制造商。</p>
</div><p>A successful meeting between the two leaders from May 14 to 15 may provide an extra boost for Chinese equities, which have lagged their Asian peers even as regional markets rallied in April on easing concerns over the Iran war. Optimism over a stronger renminbi is also building as the US dollar has retreated. Any structural disagreements, on the other hand, could reignite volatility in local stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>5 月 14 日至 15 日两位领导人之间的成功会晤可能会为中国股市提供额外的提振，尽管在 4 月份区域市场因对伊朗战争的担忧减轻而反弹时，中国股市表现滞后于其亚洲同行。随着美元回落，人民币走强的乐观情绪也在逐渐形成。另一方面，任何结构性分歧可能会重新点燃当地股票的波动性。</p>
</div><p>“If the summit can bring a little bit more certainty to the US-China relationship and drive that risk premium down, that’s ultimately going to be very positive for Chinese equities,” said Christopher Hamilton, head of client solutions for Asia Pacific ex-Japan at Invesco.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果峰会能够为美中关系带来更多的确定性，并降低风险溢价，这最终将对中国股市非常积极，” Invesco 亚太区（日本除外）客户解决方案负责人克里斯托弗·汉密尔顿表示。</p>
</div><p>These are the areas market participants are watching ahead of the summit:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场参与者在峰会前关注的领域包括：</p>
</div><h2>Trade tariffs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>贸易关税</h2>
</div><p>The base case for tariffs is for them to remain in place without a meaningful escalation, according to Macquarie Group. Current US levies on Chinese goods at an effective rate of around 22 per cent, according to a JPMorgan Chase estimate, are subject to an ongoing investigation, and China has pointed to those probes as a source of friction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据麦格理集团的说法，关税的基本情况是保持不变而没有实质性升级。根据摩根大通的估计，目前对中国商品的美国关税有效税率约为 22%，正在进行调查，中国已将这些调查视为摩擦的来源。</p>
</div><h3>Navigate Asia in  a new global order</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中驾驭亚洲</h3>
</div><p>Get the insights delivered to your inbox.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取洞察，直接发送到您的邮箱。</p>
</div><p>An absence of further tensions “marginally improves visibility for broader China exporters by easing escalation risk and providing better supply-chain certainty, even as existing tariffs continue to cap upside,” said Eugene Hsiao, head of China equity strategy at Macquarie in Hong Kong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“进一步紧张局势的缺失在一定程度上改善了更广泛的中国出口商的可见性，降低了升级风险，并提供了更好的供应链确定性，即使现有关税仍然限制了上行空间，” 麦格理香港的中国股票策略负责人尤金·萧表示。</p>
</div><p>While companies related to energy security or the tech global supply chain are likely to get waivers, higher levies will be particularly challenging for biotech firms with significant US revenue exposure, such as WuXi Biologics (Cayman) and WuXi AppTec, which are already under pressure from the US Biosecure Act.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然与能源安全或全球科技供应链相关的公司可能会获得豁免，但更高的关税对生物科技公司，尤其是那些在美国收入占比较大的公司，如药明生物（开曼）和药明康德，将特别具有挑战性，这些公司已经受到美国生物安全法的压力。</p>
</div><h2>Middle East conflict</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中东冲突</h2>
</div><p>The Iran war adds an additional layer of strain to US-China tensions. Washington’s efforts to tighten pressure on Teheran are increasingly affecting China, which remains Iran’s largest trading partner and a major buyer of its oil exports. The US has also sanctioned refiners in the Asian country that process Iranian oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争为美中紧张关系增加了额外的压力。华盛顿对德黑兰施加更大压力的努力越来越影响到中国，而中国仍然是伊朗最大的贸易伙伴，也是其石油出口的主要买家。美国还对在亚洲国家加工伊朗石油的炼油厂实施了制裁。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4dbcdc1aafbe8282a24cb7947281edf3aa26b6e449b17fb1ac8379b093fafffa/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4dbcdc1aafbe8282a24cb7947281edf3aa26b6e449b17fb1ac8379b093fafffa?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>US-China summit: managing a rivalry, not resolving it</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美中峰会：管理竞争，而非解决竞争</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5c0775d3b3d1bcaf5ccafa07c2f9960d558ea8665cf8d6598eb71a91acaf5af0/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/5c0775d3b3d1bcaf5ccafa07c2f9960d558ea8665cf8d6598eb71a91acaf5af0?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>The AI arms race and China’s bid to stop Manus’ US$2 billion sale to Meta, explained</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>人工智能军备竞赛与中国阻止 Manus 以 20 亿美元出售给 Meta 的努力，解析</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9da6fdd5a4c3dcf8339f0f6e2615a7e47d3d3b67ad7fb02127c09ab527b2da4e/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/9da6fdd5a4c3dcf8339f0f6e2615a7e47d3d3b67ad7fb02127c09ab527b2da4e?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>US sanctions on China oil giant Hengli turn up heat for teapot refiners</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美国对中国石油巨头恒力的制裁加大了对小炼油厂的压力</h3>
</div><p>Trump has said he would discuss the Iran war with Xi during their summit. A signal of easing tensions on that front may help improve risk sentiment, with analysts pointing out that meetings between the two leaders have often triggered sharp swings in shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普表示，他将在峰会上与习近平讨论伊朗战争。缓解这一方面的紧张局势的信号可能有助于改善风险情绪，分析师指出，两位领导人的会晤往往会引发股市的剧烈波动。</p>
</div><p>“While the Chinese economy is short-term resilient, both sides have strong interests in quickly resolving the Middle East conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and pacifying other potential chokepoints,” JPMorgan analysts led by chief China economist Feng Zhu wrote in a note on Friday (May 8).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然中国经济在短期内具有韧性，但双方在迅速解决中东冲突、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以及平息其他潜在的瓶颈方面都有强烈的利益，” 摩根大通首席中国经济学家冯竹领导的分析师在 5 月 8 日的报告中写道。</p>
</div><h2>Tech curbs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>技术限制</h2>
</div><p>Tensions over chip technology have intensified ahead of the meeting, with US regulators reportedly halting tool shipment to Hua Hong Semiconductor. This followed Beijing’s move to block Meta Platforms’ US$2 billion bid for AI startup Manus to keep cutting-edge technology inside its borders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在会议前，关于芯片技术的紧张局势加剧，美国监管机构据报道已停止向华虹半导体发运工具。这是在北京阻止 Meta Platforms 以 20 亿美元收购人工智能初创公司 Manus，以保持尖端技术在其境内的举动之后。</p>
</div><p>It is possible for the US to moderately relax chip equipment export controls by allowing tools for more advanced 14 nm and 7 nm chips, or unofficially offer exemptions to specific companies such as Hua Hong and Shanghai Huali Microelectronics, which will bode well for local players, according to Jefferies Financial Group analysts including Edison Lee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据杰富瑞金融集团的分析师，包括埃迪森·李，华盛顿可能会适度放宽芯片设备出口管制，允许更先进的 14 纳米和 7 纳米芯片的工具出口，或非正式地向华虹和上海华力微电子等特定公司提供豁免，这将对本地企业有利。</p>
</div><p>Some analysts remain cautious over a truce as both countries continue to fight for supremacy in artificial intelligence. Still, domestic chipmakers may continue to attract capital inflows, given Beijing’s push to reduce dependence on foreign technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些分析师对停火持谨慎态度，因为两国仍在争夺人工智能的主导地位。尽管如此，考虑到北京推动减少对外国技术的依赖，国内芯片制造商可能仍会继续吸引资本流入。</p>
</div><h2>Rare earths</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>稀土</h2>
</div><p>Rare earths are expected to be a key topic as Trump looks to secure shipments from China, which accounts for more than 70 per cent of the global supply. Since late October 2025, US-China policy has revolved around a fragile detente, with Xi pausing export restrictions on rare earth elements and Trump putting off curbs on Chinese access to vital American technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稀土预计将成为特朗普寻求确保从中国的运输的关键话题，中国占全球供应的 70% 以上。自 2025 年 10 月底以来，美中政策围绕脆弱的缓和展开，习近平暂停了对稀土元素的出口限制，而特朗普则推迟了对中国获取重要美国技术的限制。</p>
</div><p>The frictions have fuelled a rally in China’s biggest producers, including China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten, with shares more than doubling in the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些摩擦推动了中国最大生产商的股价上涨，包括中国北方稀土（集团）高科技和厦门钨业，过去一年股价翻了一番以上。</p>
</div><p>The meeting between Trump and Xi will “likely focus narrowly on trade and export controls – including tariffs, Chinese purchases of US goods such as soybeans, energy, and airplanes, and stable rare earth flows,” according to Goldman Sachs Group economists including Andrew Tilton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普与习近平的会晤 “可能会狭隘地集中在贸易和出口管制上——包括关税、中国对美国商品（如大豆、能源和飞机）的采购，以及稳定的稀土流动，” 高盛集团的经济学家，包括安德鲁·蒂尔顿表示。</p>
</div><h2>Agriculture purchases</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>农业采购</h2>
</div><p>“Beyond signalling stability, Beijing may provide new purchase commitments for US exports, possibly including soybeans, other agricultural products, oil and gas, and civilian aircraft,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at advisory firm Teneo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“除了传达稳定性外，北京可能会为美国出口提供新的采购承诺，可能包括大豆、其他农产品、石油和天然气以及民用飞机，” 咨询公司 Teneo 的董事总经理加布里埃尔·维尔道表示。</p>
</div><p>Greater soybean purchases may improve cost structures for Chinese food producers, such as Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food, Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial and Commercial Holding and Qianhe Condiment and Food, according to JPMorgan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据摩根大通的分析，增加大豆采购可能改善中国食品生产商的成本结构，例如佛山海天调味食品、君杰高科技工业与商业控股和千禾调味食品。</p>
</div><p>China may also opt to buy more pork, beef and poultry from the US, which may impact the local hog industry already weighed down by slumping prices. Shares of industry leaders such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group and New Hope Liuhe have fallen more than 15 per cent since mid-September 2025, underperforming the benchmark. BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国可能还会选择从美国购买更多的猪肉、牛肉和家禽，这可能会影响已经因价格下滑而受到压力的本地养猪行业。自 2025 年 9 月中旬以来，行业领导者如牧原食品、温氏食品集团和新希望六和的股价已下跌超过 15%，表现不及基准。BLOOMBERG</p>
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Tariffs, rare earths, tech curbs: Stock trader’s guide to navigating high stakes Trump-Xi summit

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关税、稀土、技术限制：股票交易员如何应对高风险的特朗普 - 习近平峰会指南