<p>新加坡上市的棕榈油公司的股票在今年迄今稳步上涨，因为伊朗战争进一步推高了这一商品的价格。</p>
<p>有利的基本面组合可能为棕榈油公司提供了一个宝贵的机会，以提升其可持续性信誉，迎接未来日益突出的森林砍伐政策和自然报告。</p>
<p>中东冲突导致的化石燃料供应中断的受益者之一是极为有用的棕榈油。</p>
<p>印尼种植集团 Kencana Agri 的股票在新加坡上市的棕榈油公司中涨幅最大，今年迄今已从 2025 年末的 0.26 新元飙升至 5 月 6 日的 0.53 新元，翻了一番。自公司在 2 月份宣布 2025 年净利润增长 54% 至 1840 万美元，并宣告每股派发 0.015 新元的最终股息以来，股价一直在上涨。</p>
<p>新加坡市值最大的棕榈油公司 Wilmar International 的股票在 5 月 6 日最后交易价为 3.75 新元，今年迄今上涨 21.8%。该股在 4 月份达到 3.99 新元的收盘价，为近三年来的最高点。</p>
<p>作为参考，按照海峡时报指数衡量的整体市场今年仅上涨了 6.1%。</p>
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<h2>棕榈油价格</h2>
<p>股票上涨的一个关键驱动因素是棕榈油本身的价格。马来西亚期货交易所的原棕榈油（CPO）期货平均现货月结算价格从 2025 年 12 月的每吨 4043.82 令吉上涨至 2026 年 4 月的每吨 4570.36 令吉，涨幅为 13%。</p>
<p>这种价格强劲的原因有三个，其中两个与伊朗战争有关。第一个是霍尔木兹海峡的关闭推高了能源价格；由于棕榈油可以在某些燃料和消费品中替代矿物油，因此更高的油气价格也往往会推高棕榈油的价格。</p>
<p>第二个因素是持续的供应中断增强了东南亚各国政府对生物柴油采用的决心。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/b5fe5765fa3539c2f2ab19b55cda4941585c3b78714bf6c5918d9f262b993ec9/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/b5fe5765fa3539c2f2ab19b55cda4941585c3b78714bf6c5918d9f262b993ec9/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>东盟的生物柴油推动棕榈油上涨，但 SGX 上市公司能否受益？</h3>
<p>最值得注意的是，印尼农业部长安迪·阿姆兰·苏莱曼在 4 月 19 日表示，印尼将从 7 月 1 日起停止进口补贴的低级柴油，因为该国实施 B50 生物柴油的强制性规定。B50 中的数字是与矿物柴油混合的生物燃料的百分比，而 B40 是印尼目前的强制性规定。</p>
<p>马来西亚也在 4 月份表示，将逐步将生物柴油的强制性规定从当前的 B10 提高到 B15。泰国目前补贴 B20 燃料。</p>
<p>第三个因素与天气有关。普遍预期由于厄尔尼诺效应，今年的高温可能会影响棕榈油的生产，从而推高价格。</p>
<p>在 3 月份，OCBC 分析师朱鹏、林雅达和阿赫迈德·阿恩瓦尔将其 CPO 目标价从每吨 4200 令吉上调至 4300 令吉。OCBC 对 Wilmar 和 Bumitama Agri 给予 “买入” 评级，对 Golden Agri-Resources 给予 “持有” 评级。</p>
<p>惠誉解决方案的 BMI 也预测 2026 年 CPO 价格为每吨 4300 令吉，并预计到 2030 年将达到每吨 4460 令吉。备受关注的食用油分析师多拉布·米斯特里甚至更进一步，预计棕榈油期货在 6 月将达到每吨约 5000 令吉，并可能在 7 月中旬达到每吨 5200 令吉。</p>
<p>与这些支持性因素并行的是可持续性相关的问题，企业的业务影响取决于公司在多大程度上满足市场和监管的期望。</p>
<p>其中一个更为紧迫的问题是欧盟的森林砍伐法规，旨在禁止来自最近被砍伐土地或对森林退化有贡献的进口。使用棕榈油的产品是该规则涵盖的对象之一。</p>
<p>本周，欧盟完成了对这一长期延迟规则的简化审查，并发布了草案供公众评论。提议的变化之一是扩大范围，包括更多的棕榈油衍生品，包括肥皂。</p>
<p>也许更重要的是，2026 年 12 月的实施时间表仍然保持不变。好消息是，棕榈油公司现在将对新法律的时间和要求有更大的可见性。但实现合规的工作——以及保护收入的工作——仍在前方。</p>
<p>另一个值得关注的重大转型事件是朝着自然报告标准的持续进展。</p>
<p>在 4 月份，国际可持续性标准委员会，该委员会起草全球可持续性披露的会计规则，达成一致，提议就与自然相关的披露发布实践声明。预计将在 10 月份发布公开征求意见稿。</p>
<p>该实践声明不会改变现有可持续性报告标准的要求，而是提供关于如何在现有规则下披露与自然相关的风险和机会的指导。但这是会计机构在解决自然报告问题上迈出的坚定一步。</p>
<p>政策轨迹表明，棕榈油公司将不得不更加自觉地进行与自然相关的披露。这将需要更多的资源，但如果做得好，也可能提高公司在将自然因素纳入投资决策的投资者中的形象。</p>
<p>这些投资者的数量和复杂性可能会增加，就像可持续性和气候因素现在已被大多数主要基金经理纳入评估一样。</p>
<p>支持性基本条件——能源危机、结构性燃料转型和天气——并不总是同时出现，股票价格表明市场对未来一年的期望很高。</p>
<p>股东无疑会期待分红或某种形式的回报，但公司也可能希望考虑将部分利润用于为公司未来应对气候和可持续性转型风险做好准备。</p>
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丰益国际

<p>新加坡上市的棕榈油公司的股票今年大幅上涨，主要受到伊朗冲突推动的棕榈油价格上涨的影响。Kencana Agri 的股价翻倍至 0.53 新元，而丰益国际上涨 21.8% 至 3.75 新元。主要因素包括粗棕榈油价格的上涨、政府对生物柴油的强制要求以及厄尔尼诺现象带来的天气影响。分析师预测，到 7 月中旬，CPO 价格可能达到每吨 5000 马币。此外，欧盟森林砍伐法规等可持续性法规将对行业产生影响，要求遵守以保护收入</p>

<p>SHARES of Singapore-listed palm oil companies have climbed steadily so far this year as the war in Iran further elevates the price of the commodity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡上市的棕榈油公司的股票在今年迄今稳步上涨，因为伊朗战争进一步推高了这一商品的价格。</p>
</div><p>The fortuitous mix of supportive fundamentals could provide the palm oil companies with a precious opportunity to burnish their sustainability credentials ahead of a future where deforestation policies and nature reporting gain prominence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有利的基本面组合可能为棕榈油公司提供了一个宝贵的机会，以提升其可持续性信誉，迎接未来日益突出的森林砍伐政策和自然报告。</p>
</div><p>One of the beneficiaries of the fossil fuel supply disruptions that have arisen from the Middle East conflict has been the uber useful palm oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东冲突导致的化石燃料供应中断的受益者之一是极为有用的棕榈油。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Indonesian plantation group Kencana Agri have shot up the most among Singapore-listed palm oil counters, doubling so far this year to S$0.53 on May 6 from S$0.26 at the end of 2025. The stock has been on a tear since the company announced in February that net profit for 2025 rose 54 per cent to US$18.4 million and declared a S$0.015 per share final dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼种植集团 Kencana Agri 的股票在新加坡上市的棕榈油公司中涨幅最大，今年迄今已从 2025 年末的 0.26 新元飙升至 5 月 6 日的 0.53 新元，翻了一番。自公司在 2 月份宣布 2025 年净利润增长 54% 至 1840 万美元，并宣告每股派发 0.015 新元的最终股息以来，股价一直在上涨。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Wilmar International , the largest Singapore-listed palm oil play by market capitalisation, last traded at S$3.75 on May 6, up 21.8 per cent so far this year. The stock reached a S$3.99 close in April, the highest in almost three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡市值最大的棕榈油公司 Wilmar International 的股票在 5 月 6 日最后交易价为 3.75 新元，今年迄今上涨 21.8%。该股在 4 月份达到 3.99 新元的收盘价，为近三年来的最高点。</p>
</div><p>As reference, the broader market as measured by the Straits Times Index is up just 6.1 per cent on the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为参考，按照海峡时报指数衡量的整体市场今年仅上涨了 6.1%。</p>
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</div><h2>Price of palm oil</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>棕榈油价格</h2>
</div><p>One of the key drivers behind the stock rallies has been the price of palm oil itself. The average spot month settlement price of crude palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia increased from RM4,043.82 per tonne in December 2025 to RM4,570.36 per tonne in April 2026, a 13 per cent hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票上涨的一个关键驱动因素是棕榈油本身的价格。马来西亚期货交易所的原棕榈油（CPO）期货平均现货月结算价格从 2025 年 12 月的每吨 4043.82 令吉上涨至 2026 年 4 月的每吨 4570.36 令吉，涨幅为 13%。</p>
</div><p>That pricing strength rests on three factors, two of which are related to the Iran war. The first is that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up energy prices; since palm oil can be substituted for mineral oils in some fuels and consumer products, higher oil and gas prices also tend to raise prices for palm oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种价格强劲的原因有三个，其中两个与伊朗战争有关。第一个是霍尔木兹海峡的关闭推高了能源价格；由于棕榈油可以在某些燃料和消费品中替代矿物油，因此更高的油气价格也往往会推高棕榈油的价格。</p>
</div><p>The second factor is that the ongoing supply disruption has strengthened South-east Asian governments’ resolve on biodiesel adoption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二个因素是持续的供应中断增强了东南亚各国政府对生物柴油采用的决心。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/b5fe5765fa3539c2f2ab19b55cda4941585c3b78714bf6c5918d9f262b993ec9/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/b5fe5765fa3539c2f2ab19b55cda4941585c3b78714bf6c5918d9f262b993ec9?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Asean’s biodiesel push fuels palm oil rally, but will SGX-listed players gain?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>东盟的生物柴油推动棕榈油上涨，但 SGX 上市公司能否受益？</h3>
</div><p>Most notably, Indonesian Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman said on Apr 19 that Indonesia will stop importing subsidised low-grade diesel from Jul 1 as the country imposes a mandate for B50 biodiesel. The number in B50 is the percentage of biofuel blended with mineral diesel, and B40 is the current mandate in Indonesia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最值得注意的是，印尼农业部长安迪·阿姆兰·苏莱曼在 4 月 19 日表示，印尼将从 7 月 1 日起停止进口补贴的低级柴油，因为该国实施 B50 生物柴油的强制性规定。B50 中的数字是与矿物柴油混合的生物燃料的百分比，而 B40 是印尼目前的强制性规定。</p>
</div><p>Malaysia also said in April that it will gradually raise its biodiesel mandate to B15 from the current B10 policy. Thailand currently subsidises B20 fuel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马来西亚也在 4 月份表示，将逐步将生物柴油的强制性规定从当前的 B10 提高到 B15。泰国目前补贴 B20 燃料。</p>
</div><p>The third factor is weather related. The general expectation is that higher surface temperatures due to the El Nino effect this year could hurt palm oil production, which would raise prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三个因素与天气有关。普遍预期由于厄尔尼诺效应，今年的高温可能会影响棕榈油的生产，从而推高价格。</p>
</div><p>In March, OCBC analysts Chu Peng, Ada Lim and Ahmad A Enver raised their CPO target to RM4,300 per tonne from RM4,200 per tonne. OCBC has “buy” ratings on Wilmar and Bumitama Agri , and a “hold” call on Golden Agri-Resources .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 3 月份，OCBC 分析师朱鹏、林雅达和阿赫迈德·阿恩瓦尔将其 CPO 目标价从每吨 4200 令吉上调至 4300 令吉。OCBC 对 Wilmar 和 Bumitama Agri 给予 “买入” 评级，对 Golden Agri-Resources 给予 “持有” 评级。</p>
</div><p>Fitch Solutions’ BMI is also forecasting RM4,300 per tonne for CPO in 2026, and expects RM4,460 per tonne by 2030. Well-followed edible oils analyst Dorab Mistry is going even further, calling for palm oil futures to hit around RM5,000 per tonne by June and possibly RM5,200 per tonne by mid-July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>惠誉解决方案的 BMI 也预测 2026 年 CPO 价格为每吨 4300 令吉，并预计到 2030 年将达到每吨 4460 令吉。备受关注的食用油分析师多拉布·米斯特里甚至更进一步，预计棕榈油期货在 6 月将达到每吨约 5000 令吉，并可能在 7 月中旬达到每吨 5200 令吉。</p>
</div><p>Moving alongside those supportive factors are sustainability-related issues where the impact on the business hinges on how well the company meets market and regulatory expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与这些支持性因素并行的是可持续性相关的问题，企业的业务影响取决于公司在多大程度上满足市场和监管的期望。</p>
</div><p>One of the more imminent ones is the European Union Deforestation Regulation, which aims to ban imports that originate from recently deforested land or have contributed to forest degradation. Products that use palm oil are among those covered by the rule.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中一个更为紧迫的问题是欧盟的森林砍伐法规，旨在禁止来自最近被砍伐土地或对森林退化有贡献的进口。使用棕榈油的产品是该规则涵盖的对象之一。</p>
</div><p>This week, the EU completed a simplification review of the long-delayed rule and issued a draft for public comment. Among the proposed changes is an expansion of the scope to include more palm oil derivatives, including soap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，欧盟完成了对这一长期延迟规则的简化审查，并发布了草案供公众评论。提议的变化之一是扩大范围，包括更多的棕榈油衍生品，包括肥皂。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps more important is that the December 2026 implementation timeline is still intact. The good news is that the palm oil companies will now have greater visibility about the timing and the requirements of the new law. But the work to achieve compliance – and to protect revenue – lies ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也许更重要的是，2026 年 12 月的实施时间表仍然保持不变。好消息是，棕榈油公司现在将对新法律的时间和要求有更大的可见性。但实现合规的工作——以及保护收入的工作——仍在前方。</p>
</div><p>Another major transition event worthy of attention is ongoing progress towards standards for nature reporting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个值得关注的重大转型事件是朝着自然报告标准的持续进展。</p>
</div><p>In April, the International Sustainability Standards Board, which drafts global accounting rules on sustainability disclosures, agreed to propose a practice statement on nature-related disclosures. An exposure draft is expected to be put up for public comment in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 4 月份，国际可持续性标准委员会，该委员会起草全球可持续性披露的会计规则，达成一致，提议就与自然相关的披露发布实践声明。预计将在 10 月份发布公开征求意见稿。</p>
</div><p>The practice statement will not change requirements of the existing sustainability reporting standards, and instead provide guidance on how to disclose nature-related risks and opportunities within the current rules. But it is one step in a committed journey by the accounting body to address nature reporting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该实践声明不会改变现有可持续性报告标准的要求，而是提供关于如何在现有规则下披露与自然相关的风险和机会的指导。但这是会计机构在解决自然报告问题上迈出的坚定一步。</p>
</div><p>The policy trajectory suggests that the palm oil companies will have to be more conscientious about their nature-related disclosures. This will take more resources, but if done well it could also raise a company’s profile with investors that incorporate nature factors into their deployment decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策轨迹表明，棕榈油公司将不得不更加自觉地进行与自然相关的披露。这将需要更多的资源，但如果做得好，也可能提高公司在将自然因素纳入投资决策的投资者中的形象。</p>
</div><p>The number and sophistication of those investors is likely to grow, in the same way that sustainability and climate factors are now integrated into the assessments by most major fund managers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些投资者的数量和复杂性可能会增加，就像可持续性和气候因素现在已被大多数主要基金经理纳入评估一样。</p>
</div><p>The supportive fundamental conditions – an energy crisis, a structural fuel transition and weather – don’t always fall in place at the same time, and the stock prices suggest that the market has big expectations for the year ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>支持性基本条件——能源危机、结构性燃料转型和天气——并不总是同时出现，股票价格表明市场对未来一年的期望很高。</p>
</div><p>Shareholders will no doubt be looking for dividends or some form of reward, but the companies might also want to consider diverting some of the profits towards future-proofing the company against the climate and sustainability transition risks that lay ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股东无疑会期待分红或某种形式的回报，但公司也可能希望考虑将部分利润用于为公司未来应对气候和可持续性转型风险做好准备。</p>
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新加坡上市的棕榈油股票因生物柴油需求而受到提振