<p>美国股票的牛市前景刚刚找到了一个新的上限，这个上限是由自 2020 年以来一直支持 “咆哮的 2020 年代” 的策略师设定的。</p>
<p>在 72 小时内，华尔街三家最受关注的策略部门提高了他们对标普 500 年末目标的预期。Yardeni Research 的总裁 Ed Yardeni 的目标最高，达到了 8,250 点——这是华尔街上最乐观的预测。</p>
<p>周日，<strong>Ed Yardeni</strong> 将他的标普 500 年末目标从 7,700 点上调至 8,250 点，超越了华尔街上所有已发布的预测，约比周五的创纪录收盘价 7,398.93 高出 11.5%。</p>
<p>这一调整是在经历了六周的连胜之后做出的，这段时间内基准指数——由 <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> 追踪——达到了自 2024 年以来最长的上涨周期，Yardeni 在他的报告中将其描述为 “盈利驱动的上涨”。</p>
<p>“我们从未见过当前和未来几年的共识盈利预期在最近几个月内如此迅速地上升。结果是股市出现了盈利驱动的上涨，” Yardeni 说。</p>
<h2>Yardeni 以 8,250 点领先华尔街</h2>
<p>Yardeni 的新目标 8,250 点大约比周五的创纪录收盘价 7,398.93 高出 11.5%。它现在超越了 Oppenheimer 的 8,100 点和德意志银行的 8,000 点，成为华尔街上发布的最激进的预测。</p>
<p>这位资深策略师还将他对持续 “咆哮的 2020 年代” 情景的主观概率从 60% 提高至 80%，并将之前的 20% 上涨情景纳入其中。由于经济衰退引发的熊市的概率保持在 20%。</p>
<p>Yardeni 对长期前景的看法也更加明确。他坚持到 2029 年底标普 500 的目标为 10,000 点。</p>
<p>“它可能会提前到来，” 他补充道。</p>
<h2>RBC 的 Calvasina 将市场分为两部分</h2>
<p>RBC 资本市场将其 12 个月的前瞻性目标从 7,750 点上调至 7,900 点，这一预测由美国股票策略主管 Lori Calvasina 设定。这个新数字意味着比周五的收盘价有 6.8% 的上涨空间，如果人工智能的盈利超出 “七大奇迹”，则牛市目标为 8,100 点——即 9.5% 的涨幅。</p>
<p>“人工智能在快车道，中东在慢车道，” Calvasina 说。</p>
<p>这种框架就是预测。RBC 将标普 500 非人工智能部分的盈利预期下调了 7.5%，而将与人工智能相关的预期保持在接近华尔街的共识水平。这种不对称性使得她的模型中指数得以上涨。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>SanDisk 在几个月内完成了 Nvidia 花费 9 年才做到的事情——而且图表看起来几乎不真实</strong></p>
<h2>汇丰银行看得更小，预见风险</h2>
<p>汇丰银行将其 2026 年年末目标从 7,500 点上调至 7,650 点，这是三次上调中最小的一次。</p>
<p>该银行预计 2026 年标普 500 的每股盈利增长约为 20%，即该指数的 325 美元，预计 “七大奇迹” 将继续推动大部分收益。根据汇丰引用的 LSEG I/B/E/S 数据，标普 500 第一季度的盈利预计将同比增长近 29%。</p>
<p>使这一预测有趣的是上涨路径。汇丰的策略师们提出了一条可信的路径，预计将超过 8,000 点——但指出上涨的狭窄性是结构性风险。大多数标普 500 股票仍低于其 52 周高点，如果参与度扩大，仍有进一步上涨的空间。</p>
<p>科技股和 “七大奇迹” 现在占标普 500 市值的一半以上，且占指数盈利的 40% 以上，尽管估值已从之前的高峰回落。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>标普 500 年末 2026 目标</th>
<th>隐含上涨空间</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Yardeni Research</strong></td>
<td>8,250</td>
<td>+11.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Oppenheimer</strong></td>
<td>8,100</td>
<td>+9.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Deutsche Bank</strong></td>
<td>8,000</td>
<td>+8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>RBC Capital Markets</strong></td>
<td>7,900</td>
<td>+6.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Morgan Stanley</strong></td>
<td>7,800</td>
<td>+5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>HSBC</strong></td>
<td>7,650</td>
<td>+3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong></td>
<td>7,600</td>
<td>+2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>JPMorgan</strong></td>
<td>7,500</td>
<td>+1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Bank of America</strong></td>
<td>7,100</td>
<td>−4.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>盈利波动观察：本周 10 只股票隐含波动超过 17%</strong></p>
<p><em>图像由人工智能通过 Midjourney 创建。</em></p>

标普 500 指数

汇丰

加拿大皇家银行

<p>三家主要的华尔街公司，Yardeni Research、RBC Capital Markets 和汇丰，已提高了他们对标普 500 年终目标的预期。Yardeni 的目标为 8,250，反映出对盈利增长的乐观看法。RBC 将其目标提高至 7,900，强调由人工智能驱动的市场分化，而汇丰则将目标上调至 7,650，指出窄幅反弹中的风险。这些调整突显了策略师们的看涨情绪，其中 Yardeni 的预测在华尔街上最为激进</p>

<p>The bull case for U.S. stocks just found a new ceiling, and it was set by the strategist who has been carrying the torch for the “Roaring 2020s” since 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股票的牛市前景刚刚找到了一个新的上限，这个上限是由自 2020 年以来一直支持 “咆哮的 2020 年代” 的策略师设定的。</p>
</div><p>In 72 hours, three of Wall Street’s most-followed strategy desks lifted their S&amp;P 500 year-end targets. Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni went highest, to 8,250 — the most bullish call on the Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 72 小时内，华尔街三家最受关注的策略部门提高了他们对标普 500 年末目标的预期。Yardeni Research 的总裁 Ed Yardeni 的目标最高，达到了 8,250 点——这是华尔街上最乐观的预测。</p>
</div><p>On Sunday, <strong>Ed Yardeni</strong> raised his year-end S&amp;P 500 target to 8,250 from 7,700, moving above every published call on Wall Street and roughly 11.5% above Friday’s record close of 7,398.93.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周日，<strong>Ed Yardeni</strong> 将他的标普 500 年末目标从 7,700 点上调至 8,250 点，超越了华尔街上所有已发布的预测，约比周五的创纪录收盘价 7,398.93 高出 11.5%。</p>
</div><p>The move arrived after a six-week winning streak that pushed the benchmark – tracked by the <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> (NYSE: SPY) – to its longest stretch of gains since 2024, fueled by what Yardeni described in his note as an “earnings-led meltup.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一调整是在经历了六周的连胜之后做出的，这段时间内基准指数——由 <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> 追踪——达到了自 2024 年以来最长的上涨周期，Yardeni 在他的报告中将其描述为 “盈利驱动的上涨”。</p>
</div><p>“We’ve never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months. The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market,” Yardeni said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们从未见过当前和未来几年的共识盈利预期在最近几个月内如此迅速地上升。结果是股市出现了盈利驱动的上涨，” Yardeni 说。</p>
</div><h2>Yardeni Tops The Street At 8,250</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Yardeni 以 8,250 点领先华尔街</h2>
</div><p>Yardeni’s new 8,250 target sits roughly 11.5% above Friday’s record close of 7,398.93. It now edges past Oppenheimer’s 8,100 and Deutsche Bank’s 8,000 to become the most aggressive call published on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Yardeni 的新目标 8,250 点大约比周五的创纪录收盘价 7,398.93 高出 11.5%。它现在超越了 Oppenheimer 的 8,100 点和德意志银行的 8,000 点，成为华尔街上发布的最激进的预测。</p>
</div><p>The veteran strategist also raised his subjective probability of a continued “Roaring 2020s” scenario to 80% from 60%, folding in his previous 20% meltup case. Odds of a recession-driven bear market stayed at 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位资深策略师还将他对持续 “咆哮的 2020 年代” 情景的主观概率从 60% 提高至 80%，并将之前的 20% 上涨情景纳入其中。由于经济衰退引发的熊市的概率保持在 20%。</p>
</div><p>Yardeni’s longer-horizon view sharpened too. He stuck with a 10,000 target for the S&amp;P 500 by the end of 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Yardeni 对长期前景的看法也更加明确。他坚持到 2029 年底标普 500 的目标为 10,000 点。</p>
</div><p>“It might arrive ahead of schedule,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“它可能会提前到来，” 他补充道。</p>
</div><h2>RBC’s Calvasina Splits The Market In Two</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>RBC 的 Calvasina 将市场分为两部分</h2>
</div><p>RBC Capital Markets raised its 12-month forward target to 7,900 from 7,750 on Friday, a call set by Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy. The new number implies 6.8% upside from Friday’s close, with a bull case at 8,100 — a 9.5% gain — if AI earnings broaden beyond the Magnificent Seven.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RBC 资本市场将其 12 个月的前瞻性目标从 7,750 点上调至 7,900 点，这一预测由美国股票策略主管 Lori Calvasina 设定。这个新数字意味着比周五的收盘价有 6.8% 的上涨空间，如果人工智能的盈利超出 “七大奇迹”，则牛市目标为 8,100 点——即 9.5% 的涨幅。</p>
</div><p>“AI in the fast lane, Middle East in the slow lane,” Calvasina said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“人工智能在快车道，中东在慢车道，” Calvasina 说。</p>
</div><p>The framing is the call. RBC cut earnings expectations for the non-AI portion of the S&amp;P 500 by 7.5%, while leaving AI-related estimates closer to Street consensus. The asymmetry is what carries the index higher in her model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种框架就是预测。RBC 将标普 500 非人工智能部分的盈利预期下调了 7.5%，而将与人工智能相关的预期保持在接近华尔街的共识水平。这种不对称性使得她的模型中指数得以上涨。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>SanDisk Did In Months What Nvidia Took 9 Years To Pull Off — And The Chart Looks Almost Unreal</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>SanDisk 在几个月内完成了 Nvidia 花费 9 年才做到的事情——而且图表看起来几乎不真实</strong></p>
</div><h2>HSBC Goes Smaller, Sees Risks Ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>汇丰银行看得更小，预见风险</h2>
</div><p>HSBC raised its year-end 2026 target to 7,650 from 7,500 on Monday, the smallest of the three hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汇丰银行将其 2026 年年末目标从 7,500 点上调至 7,650 点，这是三次上调中最小的一次。</p>
</div><p>The bank expects 2026 S&amp;P 500 earnings per share growth of about 20%, or $325 for the index, with the Magnificent Seven continuing to drive the bulk of gains. First-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings are on track to climb nearly 29% year-on-year, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data cited by HSBC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行预计 2026 年标普 500 的每股盈利增长约为 20%，即该指数的 325 美元，预计 “七大奇迹” 将继续推动大部分收益。根据汇丰引用的 LSEG I/B/E/S 数据，标普 500 第一季度的盈利预计将同比增长近 29%。</p>
</div><p>What makes the call interesting is the upside path. HSBC strategists laid out a credible route above 8,000 — but flagged the rally’s narrowness as the structural risk. Most S&amp;P 500 stocks still trade below their 52-week highs, leaving room for further upside if participation broadens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使这一预测有趣的是上涨路径。汇丰的策略师们提出了一条可信的路径，预计将超过 8,000 点——但指出上涨的狭窄性是结构性风险。大多数标普 500 股票仍低于其 52 周高点，如果参与度扩大，仍有进一步上涨的空间。</p>
</div><p>Tech and the Magnificent Seven now account for more than half of the S&amp;P 500’s market cap and more than 40% of index earnings, though valuations have de-rated from prior peaks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技股和 “七大奇迹” 现在占标普 500 市值的一半以上，且占指数盈利的 40% 以上，尽管估值已从之前的高峰回落。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Firm</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500 Year-end 2026 Target</th>
<th>Implied Upside</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Yardeni Research</strong></td>
<td>8,250</td>
<td>+11.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Oppenheimer</strong></td>
<td>8,100</td>
<td>+9.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Deutsche Bank</strong></td>
<td>8,000</td>
<td>+8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>RBC Capital Markets</strong></td>
<td>7,900</td>
<td>+6.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Morgan Stanley</strong></td>
<td>7,800</td>
<td>+5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>HSBC</strong></td>
<td>7,650</td>
<td>+3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong></td>
<td>7,600</td>
<td>+2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>JPMorgan</strong></td>
<td>7,500</td>
<td>+1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Bank of America</strong></td>
<td>7,100</td>
<td>−4.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>标普 500 年末 2026 目标</th>
<th>隐含上涨空间</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Yardeni Research</strong></td>
<td>8,250</td>
<td>+11.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Oppenheimer</strong></td>
<td>8,100</td>
<td>+9.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Deutsche Bank</strong></td>
<td>8,000</td>
<td>+8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>RBC Capital Markets</strong></td>
<td>7,900</td>
<td>+6.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Morgan Stanley</strong></td>
<td>7,800</td>
<td>+5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>HSBC</strong></td>
<td>7,650</td>
<td>+3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong></td>
<td>7,600</td>
<td>+2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>JPMorgan</strong></td>
<td>7,500</td>
<td>+1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Bank of America</strong></td>
<td>7,100</td>
<td>−4.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Earnings Volatility Watch: 10 Stocks With More Than 17% Implied Moves This Week</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>盈利波动观察：本周 10 只股票隐含波动超过 17%</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图像由人工智能通过 Midjourney 创建。</em></p>
</div>

Yardeni, RBC, And HSBC Raise S&P 500 Targets: Who's The Most Bullish On The Street Now?

- 三家华尔街策略团队提高了 2026 年 S&P 500 目标。  
- Yardeni Research 的 Ed Yardeni 将目标上调至 8250，超越其他预测。  
- HSBC 则小幅上调至 7650，警示整体市场上涨风险。

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银行 ETF - PowerShares KBW

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HSBC 5xShortSG241213

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Yardeni、加拿大皇家银行和汇丰上调标普 500 指数目标：现在谁是市场上最乐观的？