<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-bars-cash-transaction.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-bars-cash-transaction.png"/></p>
<p>自伊朗冲突开始以来，黄金价格下跌了约 12%，违背了其传统的避险角色。</p>
<p>ING 策略师 Ewa Manthey 表示，抛售反映了由于油价上涨、收益率上升和美元走强带来的宏观压力，但预计到年底价格仍可能上涨至每盎司 5000 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508883.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508883.png"/></p>
<p>来源：ING 研究</p>
<h2>黄金的反常下跌</h2>
<p>黄金通常被视为危机时期的对冲工具，但自伊朗战争爆发以来，其价格急剧下跌。</p>
<p>根据 ING 经济学的分析，自 2 月底以来，该金属价格已下跌约 12%，Manthey 将这一走势形容为 “反常但可以解释”。</p>
<p>Manthey 指出：“黄金的避险吸引力通常在金融危机或经济增长冲击时表现最佳——当实际收益率下降，美元走弱时。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>供给驱动的能源冲击则恰恰相反。油价上涨推动通胀上升，使中央银行保持观望，并加强美元，这些因素都对黄金造成压力。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>宏观压力</h2>
<p>美联储在 4 月决定维持利率不变，进一步加大了压力。</p>
<p>自战争开始以来，通胀重新加速，减少了近期放松政策的理由。</p>
<p>Manthey 解释道：“实际收益率和美元仍然是黄金的主要制约因素。持续的能源冲击可能会推迟美联储降息的时间表。”</p>
<p>周五的美国就业数据表明劳动力市场持续强劲，失业率稳定在 4.3%。</p>
<p>这使得美联储没有理由急于降息，强化了对黄金造成压力的 “长期高位” 叙述。</p>
<h2>和平谈判与地缘政治风险</h2>
<p>上周黄金短暂反弹，但在美国总统特朗普拒绝伊朗最新和平提案为 “完全不可接受” 后，涨幅回吐。</p>
<p>Manthey 表示：“这一挫折使停火时间表不确定，通胀风险上升——强化了在整个冲突期间对黄金造成压力的长期高位利率叙述。”</p>
<p>她补充说，持久的解决方案仍然是持续复苏的关键催化剂。</p>
<p>在此之前，黄金可能会在地缘政治不确定性和货币压力之间徘徊。</p>
<h2>中央银行需求</h2>
<p>尽管短期内疲软，中央银行仍继续提供结构性支持。</p>
<p>中国央行在 4 月增持了 8.1 吨，延续了 15 个月的购金潮。</p>
<p>波兰在第一季度也增加了 31 吨储备，而土耳其则是最大的卖家，减持了 60 吨以支持外汇流动性。</p>
<p>Manthey 强调：“储备多样化在中期内对黄金仍然是支持因素，即使一些中央银行为了增强流动性而出售黄金。”</p>
<h2>ETF 流入转为正向</h2>
<p>投资者的持仓也在发生变化。</p>
<p>全球黄金 ETF 在 4 月录得 66 亿美元的流入，扭转了 3 月的流出。</p>
<p>欧洲引领了这一趋势，反映出对霍尔木兹海峡关闭的担忧。</p>
<p>根据世界黄金协会的数据，亚洲和美国的贡献约占欧洲的三分之一。</p>
<p>Manthey 表示：“ETF 流入与美联储的预期密切相关——美联储的放松政策应成为下半年重新流入的催化剂。”</p>
<p>COMEX 上管理资金的持续净多头头寸表明投资者的乐观前景，尽管目前的持仓尚未被视为过度或 “拥挤”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508929.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508929.png"/></p>
<p>来源：ING 研究</p>
<h2>前景：尽管存在风险仍然乐观</h2>
<p>ING 对黄金保持乐观，预计到年底价格可能攀升至每盎司 5000 美元。</p>
<p>然而，Manthey 警告称，风险依然存在：“主要的下行风险是和平谈判的破裂，这将使能源价格保持高位，并使美联储在年底前保持观望。”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>黄金的避险角色没有问题。但最近几个月表明，短期价格走势仍可能受到宏观因素的主导——特别是实际收益率、美元和对美联储政策的预期。一旦这些压力开始缓解，黄金的基本支撑应会重新显现。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>在撰写本文时，COMEX 上最活跃的 6 月黄金合约价格为每盎司 4729 美元，与前一交易日基本持平。</p>
<p>ING 预计黄金在年底前接近每盎司 5000 美元，尽管当前疲软，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

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纽蒙特矿业

<p>ING 策略师 Ewa Manthey 预测，尽管自伊朗冲突开始以来黄金价格已下跌 12%，但到年底黄金价格可能会上涨至每盎司 5,000 美元。这一下降归因于宏观经济压力，如油价上涨、收益率上升和美元走强。虽然黄金通常被视为避风港，但当前的条件对这一角色构成了挑战。中央银行的需求仍然支持黄金市场，4 月份黄金 ETF 的显著资金流入被注意到。然而，风险依然存在，特别是关于地缘政治紧张局势和美联储政策的风险</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-bars-cash-transaction.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/gold-bars-cash-transaction.png"/></p>
<p>Gold has fallen about 12% since the Iran conflict began, defying its traditional safe‑haven role.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自伊朗冲突开始以来，黄金价格下跌了约 12%，违背了其传统的避险角色。</p>
</div><p>ING strategist Ewa Manthey says the sell‑off reflects macro headwinds from higher oil prices, stronger yields, and a firmer dollar, but forecasts prices could still rise to $5,000 per ounce by year‑end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 策略师 Ewa Manthey 表示，抛售反映了由于油价上涨、收益率上升和美元走强带来的宏观压力，但预计到年底价格仍可能上涨至每盎司 5000 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508883.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508883.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：ING 研究</p>
</div><h2>Gold’s counterintuitive decline</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金的反常下跌</h2>
</div><p>Gold is typically seen as a hedge in times of crisis, yet since the outbreak of the Iran war, it has dropped sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金通常被视为危机时期的对冲工具，但自伊朗战争爆发以来，其价格急剧下跌。</p>
</div><p>According to ING Economics, the metal has lost around 12% since late February, a move Manthey describes as “counterintuitive but explainable.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 ING 经济学的分析，自 2 月底以来，该金属价格已下跌约 12%，Manthey 将这一走势形容为 “反常但可以解释”。</p>
</div><p>“Gold’s safe‑haven appeal tends to perform best in a financial crisis or growth shock – when real yields fall, and the dollar weakens,” Manthey noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 指出：“黄金的避险吸引力通常在金融危机或经济增长冲击时表现最佳——当实际收益率下降，美元走弱时。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>A supply‑driven energy shock does the opposite. Higher oil prices push inflation up, keep central banks on hold and strengthen the dollar, all of which weigh on gold.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>供给驱动的能源冲击则恰恰相反。油价上涨推动通胀上升，使中央银行保持观望，并加强美元，这些因素都对黄金造成压力。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Macro headwinds</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>宏观压力</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave rates unchanged in April added to the pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在 4 月决定维持利率不变，进一步加大了压力。</p>
</div><p>Inflation has re‑accelerated since the war began, reducing the case for near‑term easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自战争开始以来，通胀重新加速，减少了近期放松政策的理由。</p>
</div><p>Manthey explained: “Real yields and the dollar remain the key constraints on gold. A prolonged energy shock could push back the timeline for Fed cuts.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 解释道：“实际收益率和美元仍然是黄金的主要制约因素。持续的能源冲击可能会推迟美联储降息的时间表。”</p>
</div><p>Friday’s US payrolls data showed continued labor market strength, with unemployment steady at 4.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五的美国就业数据表明劳动力市场持续强劲，失业率稳定在 4.3%。</p>
</div><p>That gave the Fed little reason to rush into rate cuts, reinforcing the higher‑for‑longer narrative that has weighed on bullion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得美联储没有理由急于降息，强化了对黄金造成压力的 “长期高位” 叙述。</p>
</div><h2>Peace talks and geopolitical risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>和平谈判与地缘政治风险</h2>
</div><p>Gold briefly rallied last week but gave back gains after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal as “totally unacceptable.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周黄金短暂反弹，但在美国总统特朗普拒绝伊朗最新和平提案为 “完全不可接受” 后，涨幅回吐。</p>
</div><p>Manthey said: “The setback keeps the ceasefire timeline uncertain and inflation risks elevated – reinforcing the higher‑for‑longer rate narrative that has weighed on gold throughout the conflict.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 表示：“这一挫折使停火时间表不确定，通胀风险上升——强化了在整个冲突期间对黄金造成压力的长期高位利率叙述。”</p>
</div><p>She added that a durable resolution remains the key catalyst for a sustained recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>她补充说，持久的解决方案仍然是持续复苏的关键催化剂。</p>
</div><p>Until then, gold is likely to remain caught between geopolitical uncertainty and monetary headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此之前，黄金可能会在地缘政治不确定性和货币压力之间徘徊。</p>
</div><h2>Central bank demand</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中央银行需求</h2>
</div><p>Despite short‑term weakness, central banks continue to provide structural support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管短期内疲软，中央银行仍继续提供结构性支持。</p>
</div><p>China’s central bank added 8.1 tonnes in April, extending its buying streak to 15 consecutive months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国央行在 4 月增持了 8.1 吨，延续了 15 个月的购金潮。</p>
</div><p>Poland also increased reserves by 31 tonnes in Q1, while Turkey was the largest seller, cutting holdings by 60 tonnes to support foreign exchange liquidity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波兰在第一季度也增加了 31 吨储备，而土耳其则是最大的卖家，减持了 60 吨以支持外汇流动性。</p>
</div><p>Manthey emphasised: “Reserve diversification remains supportive for gold over the medium term, even as some central banks sell to shore up liquidity.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 强调：“储备多样化在中期内对黄金仍然是支持因素，即使一些中央银行为了增强流动性而出售黄金。”</p>
</div><h2>ETF flows turning positive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ETF 流入转为正向</h2>
</div><p>Investor positioning is also shifting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者的持仓也在发生变化。</p>
</div><p>Global gold ETFs recorded $6.6 billion of inflows in April, reversing March outflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球黄金 ETF 在 4 月录得 66 亿美元的流入，扭转了 3 月的流出。</p>
</div><p>Europe led the move, reflecting concerns about exposure to a Strait of Hormuz closure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲引领了这一趋势，反映出对霍尔木兹海峡关闭的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Contributions from Asia and the US were around a third of Europe’s over the month, according to data from the World Gold Council.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据世界黄金协会的数据，亚洲和美国的贡献约占欧洲的三分之一。</p>
</div><p>Manthey said: “ETF flows track Fed expectations closely – Fed easing should be a catalyst for renewed inflows in the second half.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 表示：“ETF 流入与美联储的预期密切相关——美联储的放松政策应成为下半年重新流入的催化剂。”</p>
</div><p>The sustained net long positions of managed money on COMEX suggest a positive outlook among investors, although the positioning is not yet considered excessive or &#34;crowded.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COMEX 上管理资金的持续净多头头寸表明投资者的乐观前景，尽管目前的持仓尚未被视为过度或 “拥挤”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508929.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778508929.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：ING 研究</p>
</div><h2>Outlook: constructive despite risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>前景：尽管存在风险仍然乐观</h2>
</div><p>ING remains constructive on gold, projecting prices could climb to $5,000 per ounce by year‑end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 对黄金保持乐观，预计到年底价格可能攀升至每盎司 5000 美元。</p>
</div><p>Manthey cautioned, however, that risks remain: “The main downside risk is a breakdown in peace talks that keeps energy prices elevated and the Fed on hold into year‑end.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Manthey 警告称，风险依然存在：“主要的下行风险是和平谈判的破裂，这将使能源价格保持高位，并使美联储在年底前保持观望。”</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Gold’s safe‑haven role is not in question. But recent months have shown that short‑term price action can still be dominated by macro forces – particularly real yields, the dollar and expectations for Fed policy. Once those headwinds begin to ease, gold’s underlying support should reassert itself.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>黄金的避险角色没有问题。但最近几个月表明，短期价格走势仍可能受到宏观因素的主导——特别是实际收益率、美元和对美联储政策的预期。一旦这些压力开始缓解，黄金的基本支撑应会重新显现。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the most-active June gold contract on the COMEX was at $4,729 per ounce, largely unchanged from the previous close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰写本文时，COMEX 上最活跃的 6 月黄金合约价格为每盎司 4729 美元，与前一交易日基本持平。</p>
</div><p>The post ING sees gold near $5,000/oz by year‑end despite current weakness appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 预计黄金在年底前接近每盎司 5000 美元，尽管当前疲软，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

ING sees gold near $5,000/oz by year‑end despite current weakness

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尽管当前金价疲软，荷兰国际预计到年底金价将接近每盎司 5,000 美元