<p>5 月 12 日，将发布 4 月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据。Polymarket 预测该数据最有可能为 3.7% 或 3.8%。这一 “保持不变” 的结果将支持美联储维持利率不变。</p>
<p>随着中东紧张局势导致能源价格飙升，降息的可能性似乎已经被排除。除非出现意外的下行惊喜。即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）与一种观点一致，即人工智能（AI）带来的生产力提升将成为一种 “显著的通缩力量”，这可能抵消由能源驱动的压力，并使降息重新成为可能。</p>
<p>房屋建筑商和与住房相关的股票希望能实现这一结果。尽管消费者的关注主要集中在 K 型经济的下半部分，但住房市场与上半部分紧密相关，包括希望降级的退休人员和因供应不足而受到挤压的首次购房者。</p>
<p>降低抵押贷款利率不会在一夜之间解决问题。但如果被视为 18 到 24 个月内多次降息的第一步，这可能会为这些股票带来真正的动力。支持市场总是向前看的观点，几只住房股票正在获得分析师的目标价上调。</p>
<h2>D.R. Horton 在艰难的住房市场中利用规模超越竞争对手</h2>
<p>用一个住房隐喻来说，D.R. Horton Inc. NYSE: DHI 是一个坏邻里的最佳房子。DHI 在过去 12 个月中逆势上涨超过 20%。</p>
<p>这归结于战略。D.R. Horton 是美国最大的住宅建筑商，按销量计算。这在很大程度上得益于其 “速度优于价格” 的战略。公司提供激励措施以保持库存流动。这虽然牺牲了利润率，但在高利率市场中，销量比价格更为重要。此外，公司拥有内部的抵押贷款和金融服务部门，可以直接资助利率买断。</p>
<p>投资者应保持短期预期的谨慎。DHI 在过去六个月中处于区间波动，截至目前仅上涨约 1%。它的市盈率约为 14 倍，高于其历史平均水平。但 D.R. Horton 在市场复苏时可能会获得显著反弹。它还支付安全的股息，过去三年平均年增长率超过 17%。</p>
<h2>如果利率下降，Lennar 的轻资产战略将成为焦点</h2>
<p>Lennar Corp. NYSE: LEN 代表了住宅建筑股票的另一面。LEN 在过去 12 个月中下跌了 20%，在 2026 年下跌超过 15%。</p>
<p>希望来自于公司正在进行的轻资产模式转型。公司将土地开发外包给第三方，以减少资产负债表的风险。</p>
<p>这是公司 2026 年第一季度财报中分析师喜欢的部分。问题在于前瞻性指引，表示抵押贷款利率将保持在 6.2% 到 6.4% 之间。再加上 Lennar 提到的其他不利因素，使得机构投资者对该股票保持冷静。</p>
<p>分析师们已下调了对 LEN 的目标价，但共识目标价为 99.87 美元，较截至目前的股价高出 14%。这可能没有反映出预期的约 29% 的盈利增长。</p>
<p>LEN 的市盈率约为 12 倍，低于更广泛市场的水平，但高于其历史平均水平。</p>
<h2>家得宝是住房复苏的投资选择</h2>
<p>家得宝 NYSE: HD 是该组股票中的估值投资。其市盈率约为 22 倍，低于标准普尔 500 指数和其历史平均水平。然而，批评者可能会说，该股票看起来便宜是有原因的。2025 年的总销售额和调整后的每股收益均同比下降。</p>
<p>这反映出家得宝的业务与活跃的住房市场密切相关。在过去的几年中，公司受益于翻新热潮。最近的一项瑞银调查显示，家居改善市场可能正在改善。</p>
<p>这将确认更广泛的叙述，即如果公司能获得住房市场的支持，其业绩是可以修复的。目前，分析师们的趋势偏向看跌，并下调了目标价。不过，99.87 美元的共识目标价暗示在未来 12 个月内将上涨超过 30%。</p>
<p>家得宝将在 5 月 19 日发布 2026 年第一季度财报。届时，投资者将关注公司的前瞻性指引，该指引指向 2026 年下半年可能的复苏。</p>
<h2>现在应该投资 1,000 美元在 D.R. Horton 吗？</h2>
<p>在考虑 D.R. Horton 之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐在更广泛市场注意到之前购买……而 D.R. Horton 并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然 D.R. Horton 目前在分析师中获得了持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>查看这五只股票</p>

莱纳房产-A

家得宝

霍顿房屋

莱纳房产-B

美国房产主题 ETF - SPDR

美国房产建设 ETF - iShares

住房建设 3 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

房屋 ETF - Hoya

<p>这篇文章讨论了三只可能受益于通胀潜在下降的房地产股票。D.R. Horton（DHI）因其强劲的表现和对量而非价格的战略重点而受到关注，而 Lennar（LEN）则在近期下滑的情况下转向轻资产模式。家得宝（HD）被视为估值投资，分析师对房地产市场复苏持谨慎乐观态度。即将发布的消费者物价指数和联邦储备的利率决策是影响这些股票的关键因素</p>

<p>On May 12, the April reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. Polymarket predicts the number is most likely to come in at 3.7% or 3.8%. That &#34;more of the same&#34; result would support the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>5 月 12 日，将发布 4 月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据。Polymarket 预测该数据最有可能为 3.7% 或 3.8%。这一 “保持不变” 的结果将支持美联储维持利率不变。</p>
</div><p>With energy prices surging on Middle East tensions, it would seem rate cuts are firmly off the table. Unless there's a downside surprise. Incoming Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh has aligned with a narrative that productivity gains from artificial intelligence (AI) will be a &#34;significant deflationary force&#34;—one that could offset energy-driven pressures and put rate cuts back on the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着中东紧张局势导致能源价格飙升，降息的可能性似乎已经被排除。除非出现意外的下行惊喜。即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）与一种观点一致，即人工智能（AI）带来的生产力提升将成为一种 “显著的通缩力量”，这可能抵消由能源驱动的压力，并使降息重新成为可能。</p>
</div><p>Homebuilder and housing-related stocks are hoping for that outcome. While much consumer attention focuses on the lower leg of the K-shaped economy, the housing market is acutely tied to the upper leg—including retirees looking to trade down and first-time buyers, both squeezed by a lack of supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房屋建筑商和与住房相关的股票希望能实现这一结果。尽管消费者的关注主要集中在 K 型经济的下半部分，但住房市场与上半部分紧密相关，包括希望降级的退休人员和因供应不足而受到挤压的首次购房者。</p>
</div><p>Lower mortgage rates won't be an overnight fix. But if viewed as the first of several cuts over 18–24 months, it could give these stocks real momentum. Supporting the idea that markets are always forward-looking, several housing stocks are getting analyst price target upgrades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>降低抵押贷款利率不会在一夜之间解决问题。但如果被视为 18 到 24 个月内多次降息的第一步，这可能会为这些股票带来真正的动力。支持市场总是向前看的观点，几只住房股票正在获得分析师的目标价上调。</p>
</div><h2>D.R. Horton Uses Volume to Outperform in a Tough Housing Market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>D.R. Horton 在艰难的住房市场中利用规模超越竞争对手</h2>
</div><p>To go with a housing metaphor, D.R. Horton Inc. NYSE: DHI is the best house in a bad neighborhood. DHI is bucking the sector trend, up over 20% in the last 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>用一个住房隐喻来说，D.R. Horton Inc. NYSE: DHI 是一个坏邻里的最佳房子。DHI 在过去 12 个月中逆势上涨超过 20%。</p>
</div><p>It comes down to strategy. D.R. Horton is the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume. That’s largely due to its “pace over price” strategy. The company offers incentives to keep its inventory moving. It comes at the expense of margin, but in a high-rate market, volume is more important than price. Plus, the company has in-house mortgage and financial service divisions that can allow it to fund rate buydowns directly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这归结于战略。D.R. Horton 是美国最大的住宅建筑商，按销量计算。这在很大程度上得益于其 “速度优于价格” 的战略。公司提供激励措施以保持库存流动。这虽然牺牲了利润率，但在高利率市场中，销量比价格更为重要。此外，公司拥有内部的抵押贷款和金融服务部门，可以直接资助利率买断。</p>
</div><p>Investors should keep their short-term expectations in check. DHI has been range-bound over the last six months, and it’s only up about 1% in 2026 as of this writing. It’s also trading at about 14x earnings, which is higher than its historic average. But D.R. Horton is likely to get a significant bounce on a market resurgence. It also pays a safe dividend that has been increasing at an average annual rate of over 17% in the last three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应保持短期预期的谨慎。DHI 在过去六个月中处于区间波动，截至目前仅上涨约 1%。它的市盈率约为 14 倍，高于其历史平均水平。但 D.R. Horton 在市场复苏时可能会获得显著反弹。它还支付安全的股息，过去三年平均年增长率超过 17%。</p>
</div><h2>Lennar’s Asset-Light Strategy Will Be in Focus If Rates Fall</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果利率下降，Lennar 的轻资产战略将成为焦点</h2>
</div><p>Lennar Corp. NYSE: LENrepresents the other side of homebuilder stocks. LEN is down 20% in the last 12 months and over 15% in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lennar Corp. NYSE: LEN 代表了住宅建筑股票的另一面。LEN 在过去 12 个月中下跌了 20%，在 2026 年下跌超过 15%。</p>
</div><p>The hope comes from the company’s ongoing pivot to an asset-light model. The company offloads land development to third-party entities to reduce balance sheet exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>希望来自于公司正在进行的轻资产模式转型。公司将土地开发外包给第三方，以减少资产负债表的风险。</p>
</div><p>That was the part of the company's Q1 2026 earnings report that analysts liked. The problem was the forward guidance, which said mortgage rates would stay around 6.2% to 6.4%. That, along with other headwinds Lennar cited, is keeping institutional investors cool on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是公司 2026 年第一季度财报中分析师喜欢的部分。问题在于前瞻性指引，表示抵押贷款利率将保持在 6.2% 到 6.4% 之间。再加上 Lennar 提到的其他不利因素，使得机构投资者对该股票保持冷静。</p>
</div><p>Analysts have been lowering their price targets for LEN, but the consensus price target of $99.87 is 14% above the stock’s price as of this writing. And that may not be capturing the expected earnings growth of around 29%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师们已下调了对 LEN 的目标价，但共识目标价为 99.87 美元，较截至目前的股价高出 14%。这可能没有反映出预期的约 29% 的盈利增长。</p>
</div><p>LEN trades at around 12x earnings, which is a discount to the broader market, but a premium to its historic average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LEN 的市盈率约为 12 倍，低于更广泛市场的水平，但高于其历史平均水平。</p>
</div><h2>Home Depot Is a Housing Recovery Play</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>家得宝是住房复苏的投资选择</h2>
</div><p>Home Depot NYSE: HD is the valuation play of this group. At around 22x earnings, it’s trading at a discount to both the S&amp;P 500 and its historic average. However, critics may say that the stock looks cheap for a reason. Total sales and adjusted earnings per share were both down year over year in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝 NYSE: HD 是该组股票中的估值投资。其市盈率约为 22 倍，低于标准普尔 500 指数和其历史平均水平。然而，批评者可能会说，该股票看起来便宜是有原因的。2025 年的总销售额和调整后的每股收益均同比下降。</p>
</div><p>This reflects the fact that Home Depot’s business is adjacent to an active housing market. For a couple of years, the company benefited from a surge in remodeling. And a recent UBS survey showed that the home improvement market may be improving.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这反映出家得宝的业务与活跃的住房市场密切相关。在过去的几年中，公司受益于翻新热潮。最近的一项瑞银调查显示，家居改善市场可能正在改善。</p>
</div><p>That would confirm the broader narrative that the company’s results are fixable if it can get some assistance from the housing market. For now, analysts are trending bearish and lowering their price targets. Still, the consensus price target of $410.86 implies a move of over 30% in the next 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将确认更广泛的叙述，即如果公司能获得住房市场的支持，其业绩是可以修复的。目前，分析师们的趋势偏向看跌，并下调了目标价。不过，99.87 美元的共识目标价暗示在未来 12 个月内将上涨超过 30%。</p>
</div><p>Home Depot reports its Q1 2026 earnings on May 19. At that point, investors will be listening for the company’s forward guidance, which has been pointing to a potential recovery in the second half of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得宝将在 5 月 19 日发布 2026 年第一季度财报。届时，投资者将关注公司的前瞻性指引，该指引指向 2026 年下半年可能的复苏。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in D.R. Horton Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在应该投资 1,000 美元在 D.R. Horton 吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider D.R. Horton, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑 D.R. Horton 之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and D.R. Horton wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐在更广泛市场注意到之前购买……而 D.R. Horton 并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While D.R. Horton currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 D.R. Horton 目前在分析师中获得了持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

如果通胀意外下降，这三只股票将受益