<p>[香港] 中国投资者寄希望于习近平与唐纳德·特朗普之间的峰会能够提供足够的支持，以维持支撑股市和人民币的缓和贸易关系。</p>
<p>市场观察者并不寄希望于关系的全面重置，而是关注两位领导人能否避免在贸易、技术和地缘政治方面的重新摩擦。即使在这些关键问题上没有重大突破，广泛的建设性结果也被认为能够保持积极的市场情绪。</p>
<p>这种谨慎的乐观情绪使得投资者选择在中国资产上进行战术性而非结构性的投资，自去年十月双方在韩国达成贸易休战以来，这些资产已经上涨。继续看涨人民币，并选择性购买那些有望受益于货币稳定、出口韧性、国内技术投资和对人工智能需求的股票，是投资者偏好的交易。</p>
<p>“理想的情况是现状能够持续，” 摩根大通亚太区首席市场策略师邰辉在香港表示。“考虑到能源和石化的供应风险，关税和贸易紧张局势目前在投资者心中已处于次要地位。”</p>
<p>特朗普的到访将标志着近十年来现任美国总统首次访问中国。政策专家预计此次为期两天的会议不会达成重大协议，此次会议曾因特朗普专注于与伊朗的冲突而推迟。然而，它可能会在边缘上达成一些交易，例如中国额外购买美国大豆或波音飞机。</p>
<p>在此次事件之前，中国市场表现良好，表明投资者认为世界两大经济体之间的关系不会急剧恶化。</p>
<h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
<p>获取洞察，送达您的邮箱。</p>
<p>在过去三个月中，人民币在岸汇率上涨约 1.7%，成为亚洲对美元表现最佳的货币，目前交易价格为 2023 年初以来的最高水平。人民币的上涨得益于中美关系的改善以及美元的疲软。</p>
<p>高盛预计人民币在未来一年将继续上涨，认为其被低估超过 20%。包括卡马克夏·特里维迪在内的策略师在 5 月 8 日的报告中指出，人民币仍远低于中国出口实力和外部盈余所合理化的水平。</p>
<h2>‘风险溢价’</h2>
<p>伊朗战争预计将成为议程的重点。美国和中国都希望看到霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放，冲突之前全球五分之一的石油和天然气流经该海峡。对北京来说，关键问题是它是否准备对德黑兰施加压力，以及它希望从华盛顿获得什么作为回报。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/3620faa95394f0fcd89c5764758f0d575951bfb4c55690f061564f2a6b7534d4/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/3620faa95394f0fcd89c5764758f0d575951bfb4c55690f061564f2a6b7534d4/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>美国工业界和立法者恳请特朗普：在即将举行的习近平峰会上不要向中国汽车打开大门</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/2516c07c18ead2239f64043bd157c9b8766ebfe30a249ffa3d76a349fde3c23a/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/2516c07c18ead2239f64043bd157c9b8766ebfe30a249ffa3d76a349fde3c23a/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>中国确认习近平 - 特朗普峰会因伊朗战争而推迟</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4f794b55741dccbd62dcf3de2a47bab4618ae80126ca610e5705fcc71c6bbcec/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4f794b55741dccbd62dcf3de2a47bab4618ae80126ca610e5705fcc71c6bbcec/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>特朗普计划在即将举行的峰会上向习近平施压，要求中国对伊朗战争采取立场</h3>
<p>“如果 2025 年釜山峰会可以作为参考，那么此次接触可能会促进人民币升值，并在中东紧张局势缓解的情况下引发风险偏好的股票反弹，” 花旗经济学家余向荣和季新宇在一份报告中写道。“我们预计经济议程将强化双边关系的短期稳定，但不会逆转结构性阻力。”</p>
<p>总体而言，习近平和特朗普预计将寻求延长贸易休战。市场仍然容易受到任何负面意外的影响，谈判的挫折可能会逆转情绪并侵蚀近期的收益。</p>
<p>尽管如此，高盛的股票策略师预测，由于投资者在峰会前的预期较低，股票可能会在短期内上涨。</p>
<p>沪深 300 指数作为在岸股票的基准，周一上涨 1.6%。该指数在本季度迄今上涨约 11%，尽管它落后于因韩国和台湾科技股激增而受到提振的更广泛的亚洲基准。</p>
<p>“此次峰会能够做的就是压缩美国和中国之间从地缘政治角度持续存在的不确定性溢价，” 景顺亚太区（日本除外）客户投资解决方案负责人克里斯托弗·汉密尔顿表示。“如果能够为这种关系带来更多的确定性并降低风险溢价，这最终将对中国股票非常有利。” BLOOMBERG</p>
<p>解码亚洲通讯：您在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲的指南。点击此处注册以获取解码亚洲通讯。送达您的邮箱。免费。</p>

沪深300

深证成指

上证指数

A华夏人民币

A博时人民币-R

A华夏人民币-R

A惠理人民币

<p>中国投资者对即将举行的习近平与唐纳德·特朗普峰会持乐观态度，希望此次峰会能够维持当前的贸易缓和局面，从而支持股市和人民币。市场分析师并不期待重大突破，但专注于避免重新紧张局势。人民币已经走强，投资者更倾向于对中国资产进行战术性押注。此次峰会可能会达成一些小协议，尽管市场表现良好，但仍然容易受到负面意外的影响。总体而言，此次会议被视为减少地缘政治不确定性并提振中国股市的机会</p>

<p>[HONG KONG] China investors are counting on the summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to deliver just enough to sustain the detente trade underpinning stocks and the yuan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[香港] 中国投资者寄希望于习近平与唐纳德·特朗普之间的峰会能够提供足够的支持，以维持支撑股市和人民币的缓和贸易关系。</p>
</div><p>Rather than betting on a sweeping reset in relations, market watchers are focused on whether the two leaders can avoid renewed friction on trade, technology and geopolitics. Even without major breakthroughs on those key issues, a broadly constructive outcome is seen keeping the positive market sentiment intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场观察者并不寄希望于关系的全面重置，而是关注两位领导人能否避免在贸易、技术和地缘政治方面的重新摩擦。即使在这些关键问题上没有重大突破，广泛的建设性结果也被认为能够保持积极的市场情绪。</p>
</div><p>Such cautious optimism has investors choosing tactical rather than structural bets on Chinese assets, which have gained since the two sides reached a trade truce in South Korea last October. Staying long the yuan and selectively buying stocks poised to benefit from currency stability, export resilience, domestic technology investment and demand for artificial intelligence are among the favoured trades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种谨慎的乐观情绪使得投资者选择在中国资产上进行战术性而非结构性的投资，自去年十月双方在韩国达成贸易休战以来，这些资产已经上涨。继续看涨人民币，并选择性购买那些有望受益于货币稳定、出口韧性、国内技术投资和对人工智能需求的股票，是投资者偏好的交易。</p>
</div><p>“The ideal scenario would be the status quo to continue,” said Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong. “Tariffs and trade tensions have taken a backseat on investors’ minds for now, given the supply risk to energy and petrochemicals.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“理想的情况是现状能够持续，” 摩根大通亚太区首席市场策略师邰辉在香港表示。“考虑到能源和石化的供应风险，关税和贸易紧张局势目前在投资者心中已处于次要地位。”</p>
</div><p>Trump’s arrival will mark the first visit by a sitting US president to China in nearly a decade. Policy experts do not anticipate major agreements to come out of the two-day meeting, which has been rescheduled once as Trump focused on the conflict with Iran. However, it may produce deals at the margins, such as Chinese purchases of additional US soybeans or Boeing planes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的到访将标志着近十年来现任美国总统首次访问中国。政策专家预计此次为期两天的会议不会达成重大协议，此次会议曾因特朗普专注于与伊朗的冲突而推迟。然而，它可能会在边缘上达成一些交易，例如中国额外购买美国大豆或波音飞机。</p>
</div><p>China’s markets have had a good run ahead of the event, suggesting investors see little risk of a sharp deterioration in ties between the world’s two largest economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此次事件之前，中国市场表现良好，表明投资者认为世界两大经济体之间的关系不会急剧恶化。</p>
</div><h3>Navigate Asia in  a new global order</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
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</div><p>Up about 1.7 per cent, the onshore yuan is Asia’s top-performing currency against the US dollar over the past three months, and is trading at its highest level since early 2023. It has been buoyed by improving US-China ties and weakness in the greenback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三个月中，人民币在岸汇率上涨约 1.7%，成为亚洲对美元表现最佳的货币，目前交易价格为 2023 年初以来的最高水平。人民币的上涨得益于中美关系的改善以及美元的疲软。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs expects the currency to keep rising over the coming year, arguing that it is more than 20 per cent undervalued. The yuan remains well below levels justified by China’s export strength and external surplus, strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a May 8 report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛预计人民币在未来一年将继续上涨，认为其被低估超过 20%。包括卡马克夏·特里维迪在内的策略师在 5 月 8 日的报告中指出，人民币仍远低于中国出口实力和外部盈余所合理化的水平。</p>
</div><h2>‘Risk premium’</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>‘风险溢价’</h2>
</div><p>The Iran war is expected to be high on the agenda. The US and China both want to see the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas flows passed before the conflict. The key question for Beijing is whether it’s prepared to put pressure on Teheran, and what quid pro quo it would seek from Washington in return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争预计将成为议程的重点。美国和中国都希望看到霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放，冲突之前全球五分之一的石油和天然气流经该海峡。对北京来说，关键问题是它是否准备对德黑兰施加压力，以及它希望从华盛顿获得什么作为回报。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/3620faa95394f0fcd89c5764758f0d575951bfb4c55690f061564f2a6b7534d4/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/3620faa95394f0fcd89c5764758f0d575951bfb4c55690f061564f2a6b7534d4?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>US industry, lawmakers plead with Trump: Don’t open door to Chinese cars at upcoming Xi summit</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美国工业界和立法者恳请特朗普：在即将举行的习近平峰会上不要向中国汽车打开大门</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/2516c07c18ead2239f64043bd157c9b8766ebfe30a249ffa3d76a349fde3c23a/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/2516c07c18ead2239f64043bd157c9b8766ebfe30a249ffa3d76a349fde3c23a?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>China confirms Xi-Trump summit that was delayed by Iran war</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>中国确认习近平 - 特朗普峰会因伊朗战争而推迟</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4f794b55741dccbd62dcf3de2a47bab4618ae80126ca610e5705fcc71c6bbcec/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/4f794b55741dccbd62dcf3de2a47bab4618ae80126ca610e5705fcc71c6bbcec?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Trump aims to press Xi over China’s approach to war in Iran at upcoming summit</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>特朗普计划在即将举行的峰会上向习近平施压，要求中国对伊朗战争采取立场</h3>
</div><p>“If the 2025 Busan summit is any guide, the engagement could help catalyse RMB appreciation and a risk-on equity rally should Middle East tensions de-escalate,” Citigroup economists Xiangrong Yu and Xinyu Ji wrote in a note. “We expect the economic agenda should reinforce short-term stabilisation in bilateral relations, but not reverse structural headwinds.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果 2025 年釜山峰会可以作为参考，那么此次接触可能会促进人民币升值，并在中东紧张局势缓解的情况下引发风险偏好的股票反弹，” 花旗经济学家余向荣和季新宇在一份报告中写道。“我们预计经济议程将强化双边关系的短期稳定，但不会逆转结构性阻力。”</p>
</div><p>Broadly, Xi and Trump are expected to seek an extension to their trade truce. Markets do remain vulnerable to any negative surprises, with a setback in talks likely to reverse sentiment and erode recent gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，习近平和特朗普预计将寻求延长贸易休战。市场仍然容易受到任何负面意外的影响，谈判的挫折可能会逆转情绪并侵蚀近期的收益。</p>
</div><p>That said, Goldman’s equity strategists predict stocks could see near-term upside as investor expectations stay low ahead of the summit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，高盛的股票策略师预测，由于投资者在峰会前的预期较低，股票可能会在短期内上涨。</p>
</div><p>The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore shares, jumped 1.6 per cent on Monday. The measure is up about 11 per cent so far this quarter, though it has lagged the broader Asian benchmark that’s been boosted by a surge in tech stocks in South Korea and Taiwan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沪深 300 指数作为在岸股票的基准，周一上涨 1.6%。该指数在本季度迄今上涨约 11%，尽管它落后于因韩国和台湾科技股激增而受到提振的更广泛的亚洲基准。</p>
</div><p>“What that summit can do is it can compress some of the uncertainty premium that continually persists between the US and China from a geopolitical perspective,” said Christopher Hamilton, head of client investment solutions for Asia-Pacific ex-Japan at Invesco. “If you can bring a little bit more certainty to that relationship and drive that risk premium down, that’s ultimately going to be very positive for Chinese equities.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“此次峰会能够做的就是压缩美国和中国之间从地缘政治角度持续存在的不确定性溢价，” 景顺亚太区（日本除外）客户投资解决方案负责人克里斯托弗·汉密尔顿表示。“如果能够为这种关系带来更多的确定性并降低风险溢价，这最终将对中国股票非常有利。” BLOOMBERG</p>
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China investors bet Xi-Trump meet to extend trade-detente rally

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中国投资者押注习近平与特朗普的会晤将延续贸易缓和的行情