<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/ftuFexiFtC5zq.wsw49CCw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD05MzI-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/a5094397308d612e98434ecea89b779d?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/ftuFexiFtC5zq.wsw49CCw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD05MzI-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/a5094397308d612e98434ecea89b779d"/></p>
<p>中国国家主席习近平（左）与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（ADEK BERRY）</p>
<p>当美国总统唐纳德·特朗普本周在北京与中国领导人习近平会晤时，伊朗冲突对峰会的阴影可能会让中国领导人占据明显优势。</p>
<p>由于拥有石油储备和多样化的能源来源，北京在冲突的影响下相对受到保护。同时，中国在稀土行业的主导地位使其在从华盛顿获取让步时拥有关键的谈判筹码。</p>
<p>但分析人士表示，习近平仍然会在本周的谈判中担心持续的国内经济放缓、不确定的贸易休战以及长期的中东冲突带来的损害。</p>
<p>华盛顿咨询公司亚洲集团的中国区总监韩林告诉法新社：“中国在这次峰会中拥有真正的杠杆，但也面临真正的紧迫性。”</p>
<p>以下是您需要了解的内容：</p>
<p>- 中东战争 -</p>
<p>尽管中国在能源危机中相对受到保护，但国内天然气价格在四月份飙升，制造商对塑料生产成本上升发出了警报，而塑料生产依赖于石油。</p>
<p>尽管上个月的贸易增长好于预期，但美国与以色列的长期冲突可能会对中国出口产生影响。</p>
<p>“如果油价上涨到足以显著削弱全球商品需求，这将拖累中国的经济活动，” 资本经济学的莉亚·法希在上周的一份报告中写道。</p>
<p>中国与伊朗的密切关系在谈判中也是一个潜在的紧张源，特朗普预计会施压习近平利用与德黑兰的关系来帮助结束战争。</p>
<p>“行使这种影响力会消耗中国小心培育的善意，” 林告诉法新社。</p>
<p>- 关税影响 -</p>
<p>两位领导人的上次会晤在 2025 年产生了一项初步的贸易休战，结束了激烈的报复性关税。</p>
<p>中国还转向其他贸易伙伴，以抵御特朗普贸易战带来的最严重短期影响。</p>
<p>尽管如此，官员们对国家作为制造目的地的吸引力在长期内受到的损害感到不安。</p>
<p>北京在四月份发布了新规，旨在阻止公司将中国从其供应链中剔除，因为受到贸易紧张局势影响的西方政府越来越多地考虑减少对中国工厂的依赖。</p>
<p>上个月，副总理何立峰对美国对中国的贸易措施表示 “严正关切”。</p>
<p>- 技术限制 -</p>
<p>华盛顿限制中国科技行业的举措是北京长期以来的另一个担忧，因为两国正在争夺全球人工智能市场的主导权。</p>
<p>根据美国的出口规则，中国科技公司被禁止购买加州公司 Nvidia 的最先进 AI 芯片，华盛顿表示这是为了保护国家安全。</p>
<p>北京被迫加快自主先进半导体的开发，并减少其科技行业对美国硬件的依赖。</p>
<p>本月，北京对一项可能禁止中国实验室测试在美国销售的电子设备的美国监管提案表示强烈反对。</p>
<p>北京可能希望利用其对稀土的控制作为杠杆，希望美国能够 “提供部分关税减免或暂停某些出口管制”，野村首席中国经济学家陆挺在最近的一份报告中写道。</p>
<p>- 国内放缓 -</p>
<p>习近平与特朗普的会谈将在中国国内需求和投资疲软的背景下进行。</p>
<p>自新冠疫情结束以来，这个亚洲巨头一直难以实现强劲复苏，曾经繁荣的房地产行业的长期债务危机和疲软的消费对经济活动造成了压力。</p>
<p>“房地产行业危机削弱了家庭财富，（而且）青年失业率仍然顽固地高企，” 亚洲集团的林说。</p>
<p>中国最高领导人最近承认，国内经济 “面临一定困难和挑战”，并呼吁在技术和产业链方面实现更大的自给自足。</p>
<p>“北京并不是没有焦虑地走进谈判的，” 林谈到此次会谈时表示。</p>
<p>tjx/reb/abs</p>

富时中国 3 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

<p>中国国家主席习近平即将与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普会晤，因伊朗冲突引发的担忧可能为中国提供杠杆，尤其是考虑到其石油储备和稀土资源的主导地位。然而，习近平面临的挑战包括国内经济放缓、不确定的贸易关系以及中东冲突可能带来的长期影响。分析师强调，中国迫切需要应对不断上涨的国内天然气价格、美国关税的影响以及对其科技行业的限制，同时还要在疫情后的缓慢复苏中找到出路</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/ftuFexiFtC5zq.wsw49CCw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD05MzI-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/a5094397308d612e98434ecea89b779d" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/ftuFexiFtC5zq.wsw49CCw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTEyNDI7aD05MzI-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/afp.com.sg/a5094397308d612e98434ecea89b779d"/></p>
<p>China's President Xi Jinping (L) and US President Donald Trump (ADEK BERRY)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国国家主席习近平（左）与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（ADEK BERRY）</p>
</div><p>When US President Donald Trump meets Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, the shadow the Iran conflict casts over the summit might appear to give China's leader a clear advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当美国总统唐纳德·特朗普本周在北京与中国领导人习近平会晤时，伊朗冲突对峰会的阴影可能会让中国领导人占据明显优势。</p>
</div><p>Beijing has been relatively shielded from the effects of the conflict thanks to its oil reserves and diverse energy sources. Meanwhile, its dominance of the rare earths industry gives it a key bargaining chip in extracting concessions from Washington.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于拥有石油储备和多样化的能源来源，北京在冲突的影响下相对受到保护。同时，中国在稀土行业的主导地位使其在从华盛顿获取让步时拥有关键的谈判筹码。</p>
</div><p>But Xi will still go into this week's talks worried about a persistent domestic slowdown, an uncertain trade truce, and long-term damage from a prolonged Middle East conflict, analysts say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但分析人士表示，习近平仍然会在本周的谈判中担心持续的国内经济放缓、不确定的贸易休战以及长期的中东冲突带来的损害。</p>
</div><p>&#34;China enters this summit with genuine leverage but also genuine urgency,&#34; Han Lin, China country director at Washington-based consultancy The Asia Group, told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿咨询公司亚洲集团的中国区总监韩林告诉法新社：“中国在这次峰会中拥有真正的杠杆，但也面临真正的紧迫性。”</p>
</div><p>Here's what you need to know:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是您需要了解的内容：</p>
</div><p>- Middle East war -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 中东战争 -</p>
</div><p>While China has been relatively cushioned from the energy crisis gripping Asia, domestic gas prices surged in April and manufacturers have sounded the alarm over the rising cost of plastic production, which uses oil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管中国在能源危机中相对受到保护，但国内天然气价格在四月份飙升，制造商对塑料生产成本上升发出了警报，而塑料生产依赖于石油。</p>
</div><p>A prolonged US-Israel conflict with Iran could also hit Chinese exports in the long run, despite better-than-expected trade growth last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管上个月的贸易增长好于预期，但美国与以色列的长期冲突可能会对中国出口产生影响。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If oil prices rise enough to significantly dent global goods demand, that would drag on China's activity,&#34; Leah Fahy of Capital Economics wrote in a note last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果油价上涨到足以显著削弱全球商品需求，这将拖累中国的经济活动，” 资本经济学的莉亚·法希在上周的一份报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>China's close ties with Iran are also a potential source of tension during talks, where Trump is expected to press Xi to use his relationship with Tehran to help end the war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国与伊朗的密切关系在谈判中也是一个潜在的紧张源，特朗普预计会施压习近平利用与德黑兰的关系来帮助结束战争。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Wielding that influence burns goodwill China has carefully cultivated,&#34; Lin told AFP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“行使这种影响力会消耗中国小心培育的善意，” 林告诉法新社。</p>
</div><p>- Tariff impact -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 关税影响 -</p>
</div><p>The two leaders' last meeting produced a tentative trade truce after a frenzy of tit-for-tat tariffs in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两位领导人的上次会晤在 2025 年产生了一项初步的贸易休战，结束了激烈的报复性关税。</p>
</div><p>China has also turned to alternative trading partners to fend off the worst short-term impacts of Trump's trade war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国还转向其他贸易伙伴，以抵御特朗普贸易战带来的最严重短期影响。</p>
</div><p>Still, officials are uneasy about longer-term damage to the country's appeal as a manufacturing destination.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，官员们对国家作为制造目的地的吸引力在长期内受到的损害感到不安。</p>
</div><p>Beijing issued new regulations in April aimed at stopping companies from removing China from their supply chains, as Western governments spooked by trade tensions have increasingly looked into reducing their reliance on Chinese factories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京在四月份发布了新规，旨在阻止公司将中国从其供应链中剔除，因为受到贸易紧张局势影响的西方政府越来越多地考虑减少对中国工厂的依赖。</p>
</div><p>Vice Premier He Lifeng last month voiced &#34;solemn concern&#34; over US trade measures against China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月，副总理何立峰对美国对中国的贸易措施表示 “严正关切”。</p>
</div><p>- Tech restrictions -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 技术限制 -</p>
</div><p>Washington's moves to constrain China's tech sector are another longstanding concern for Beijing, as the two countries race to dominate the global artificial intelligence market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿限制中国科技行业的举措是北京长期以来的另一个担忧，因为两国正在争夺全球人工智能市场的主导权。</p>
</div><p>Chinese tech firms are barred from purchasing California-based Nvidia's most cutting-edge AI chips, under US export rules that Washington says are to protect national security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据美国的出口规则，中国科技公司被禁止购买加州公司 Nvidia 的最先进 AI 芯片，华盛顿表示这是为了保护国家安全。</p>
</div><p>Beijing has been forced to accelerate development of its own advanced semiconductors and wean its tech sector off reliance on US hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京被迫加快自主先进半导体的开发，并减少其科技行业对美国硬件的依赖。</p>
</div><p>This month it hit out at a US regulatory proposal that could bar Chinese labs from testing electronic devices for sale in the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月，北京对一项可能禁止中国实验室测试在美国销售的电子设备的美国监管提案表示强烈反对。</p>
</div><p>Beijing may be hoping to use its control over rare earths as leverage, in hopes the US could &#34;offer partial tariff relief or pauses on certain export controls&#34;, Nomura Chief China Economist Ting Lu wrote in a recent note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京可能希望利用其对稀土的控制作为杠杆，希望美国能够 “提供部分关税减免或暂停某些出口管制”，野村首席中国经济学家陆挺在最近的一份报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>- Domestic slowdown -</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>- 国内放缓 -</p>
</div><p>The Xi-Trump talks will be held against the backdrop of China's sluggish domestic demand and investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>习近平与特朗普的会谈将在中国国内需求和投资疲软的背景下进行。</p>
</div><p>The Asian giant has struggled to mount a robust comeback since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, with a protracted debt crisis in the once-booming property sector and tepid consumption weighing on activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自新冠疫情结束以来，这个亚洲巨头一直难以实现强劲复苏，曾经繁荣的房地产行业的长期债务危机和疲软的消费对经济活动造成了压力。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The property sector crisis has hollowed out household wealth, (and) youth unemployment remains stubbornly elevated,&#34; The Asia Group's Lin said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“房地产行业危机削弱了家庭财富，（而且）青年失业率仍然顽固地高企，” 亚洲集团的林说。</p>
</div><p>China's top leaders recently acknowledged that the domestic economy &#34;faces certain difficulties and challenges,&#34; and called for greater self-reliance in tech and industrial chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国最高领导人最近承认，国内经济 “面临一定困难和挑战”，并呼吁在技术和产业链方面实现更大的自给自足。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Beijing isn't walking in without anxiety,&#34; Lin said of the talks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“北京并不是没有焦虑地走进谈判的，” 林谈到此次会谈时表示。</p>
</div><p>tjx/reb/abs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>tjx/reb/abs</p>
</div>

'Genuine urgency': China's underlying concerns at the Xi-Trump talks

雅虎北美

‘真正的紧迫性’：在习近平与特朗普会谈中，中国的潜在担忧