<p>该行业正面临专利悬崖危机，预计每年全球销售额有 2000 亿至 4000 亿美元的风险。</p>
<p>在 2025 年至 2030 年之间，数百种药物的专利，包括 69 种重磅药物，将到期，这将加速仿制药和生物类似药的大规模进入。</p>
<p>显而易见的威胁是收入，一些品牌在专利到期后的第一年市场份额下降超过 80%，但除了失去独占性外，制药公司还面临一个不那么明显的挑战。随着前所未有的专利悬崖逼近，生物制药组织正在经历压力测试，衡量其跨职能团队理解、解读和应对日益复杂因素的能力，因为新资产被引入市场。</p>
<p>与此同时，创新管道变得更加拥挤，特别是在肿瘤学、炎症和神经学领域，竞争加剧，差异化变得更难维持。科学实力仍然至关重要，但仅靠这一点是不够的。将创新转化为有意义的影响，确保疗法被患者、提供者和医疗系统理解、采用和重视，才是真正推动销售峰值的动力。</p>
<p>许多组织缺乏对外部环境的清晰共同理解，这妨碍了有效的商业化战略发展。尽管获得数据的机会前所未有，但对患者重要时刻、影响利益相关者决策的动态以及定义真正优势的竞争环境的洞察往往有限。</p>
<p>这是专利悬崖危机所暴露的更深层次问题：一个充满数据丰富但往往洞察贫乏的组织的行业。组织内部协调一致，但在外部现实中缺乏足够的锚定，以确保新资产以正确的形态出现在一个接受的市场中。</p>
<p>患者体验就是一个典型例子，数据丰富但洞察贫乏的方法变得问题重重。理解患者体验往往被视为一种映射练习，而不是揭示真实洞察的手段。不同职能构建了不同版本的患者旅程，这些版本受到各自数据、优先事项和假设的影响。</p>
<p>结果并不是信息的缺乏，而是对真正重要事物缺乏清晰认识。</p>
<p>组织可能详细了解临床表现，但对决策实际发生的地方、驱动行为变化的因素以及未满足需求在现实世界中的体验缺乏可见性。至关重要的是，他们常常错过情感、实际限制和临床需求交汇的点，这些点塑造了行动。</p>
<p>这些是重要时刻；患者体验直接影响结果的拐点。它们并不总是显而易见，也很少整齐地位于单一职能的视野中。然而，正是在这里，真正的机会存在于理解患者的感受，以及这些感受所促成或阻碍的事情。</p>
<p>如果没有对这些时刻的共同、深刻的理解，战略就有可能在内部一致但在外部不协调。生物制药组织优化共识而非清晰，强化假设而不是挑战它们。在一个差异化依赖于相关性的市场中，这种缺乏清晰度迅速成为一个关键脆弱点。</p>
<p>当组织努力识别重要时刻时，他们也可能难以理解塑造其市场的力量以及真正的增长杠杆所在。医疗决策受到激励、利益相关者动态和新兴趋势的复杂相互作用的影响，但这些力量往往只被部分理解。</p>
<p>一个持续的挑战是缺乏经济清晰度，因为关于投资方向或如何推动增长的决策常常基于假设，而没有充分理解激励结构如何影响患者路径中的行为。这些动态的小变化可以显著增加接触到的患者数量或每位患者所代表的价值，但没有清晰的视角，这些机会仍然隐藏。</p>
<p>利益相关者参与呈现出类似的挑战。组织可能识别出重要人物，但对谁塑造他们的思维及其程度缺乏更深的理解。影响力很少是明确或均匀分布的，如果没有准确映射这些动态，参与的努力可能会失去目标。</p>
<p>与此同时，市场数据的数量持续增长，使得更难区分具有真正战略意义的信号与无关的噪音。如果没有对这些力量的严格、外部基础的理解，组织可能会做出自信的决策，但不一定是正确的决策。</p>
<p>组织如何解读竞争环境使得不完整洞察的成本更加明显。随着独占性丧失，生物类似药和新进入者重塑既有市场，竞争环境既在加剧又在不断重绘。</p>
<p>然而，许多组织仍然依赖静态或表层的竞争视图。对当前竞争对手可能有清晰的理解，但对真正的临床差异化存在的地方、如何转化为引人注目的价值故事以及定位真正强势与假设中更脆弱的地方缺乏清晰度。</p>
<p>更有效的方法需要对竞争环境进行诚实评估，超越产品比较，审视创新如何改变整个格局。竞争对手的技术、新兴模式和不断演变的护理标准都有可能重新定义优势的样子，关键问题仍然是竞争基础如何变化，以及这些变化是否代表着向前迈进的机会或需要超越的干扰。</p>
<p>竞争洞察往往孤立存在，与更广泛的战略思维脱节。但在一个快速变化和压力不断增加的市场中，它不仅仅需要提供信息；还必须推动行动，从而转化为真正的竞争优势。</p>
<p>随着专利悬崖加速对整个行业的压力，它对各个组织的影响并不相同。区分因素不在于谁拥有最多的数据，甚至不是谁拥有最强的资产，而在于谁对其所处市场有最清晰、最持续更新的理解。</p>
<p>缩小洞察差距成为战略上的必要举措，因为这要求组织超越内部共识的建立，朝着一个共享的、以外部为基础的现实观迈进；这个现实观反映了患者如何体验疾病、提供者如何做出决策、支付方如何评估价值，以及竞争动态在现实世界中如何演变。</p>
<p>这种转变不仅仅是改善各职能之间的协调，尽管这也是一个重要部分，而是关于改变协调形成的基础。组织必须学会将决策锚定在对外部真相的共同解读上，并不断挑战这种解读是否仍然成立。</p>
<p>这不仅需要文化上的转变，还需要操作上的转变，打破孤岛，创造共享的洞察可见性，并赋权团队质疑假设。它还要求将战略视为一种动态能力，而不是静态的产出，随着市场的变化而不断演变。</p>
<p>最终，能够更快、更自信地将洞察转化为行动的组织，将是那些在专利悬崖中处于最佳位置的组织。在一个由复杂性和变化定义的环境中，更好的洞察将是竞争优势的基础。</p>

生物科技 ETF - VanEck Vectors

国泰中证生物医药ETF

华安恒生生物科技ETF

<p>生物制药行业面临专利悬崖危机，预计在 2025 年至 2030 年间，众多畅销药物的专利到期将导致每年 2000 亿至 4000 亿美元的销售风险。这种情况威胁到收入，并在理解市场动态和患者体验方面带来挑战。尽管组织拥有丰富的数据，但往往缺乏可操作的洞察，导致战略不匹配。医疗决策和利益相关者参与的复杂性进一步使增长机会变得复杂。随着仿制药和生物类似药的进入竞争加剧，公司必须更清晰地了解竞争格局，以有效应对这些挑战</p>

<p>The industry is approaching a patent cliff crisis, with an estimated $200–$400 billion in annual global sales at risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该行业正面临专利悬崖危机，预计每年全球销售额有 2000 亿至 4000 亿美元的风险。</p>
</div><p>Between 2025 and 2030, patents on hundreds of medicines, including 69 blockbuster drugs, are set to expire, accelerating the entry of generics and biosimilars at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年至 2030 年之间，数百种药物的专利，包括 69 种重磅药物，将到期，这将加速仿制药和生物类似药的大规模进入。</p>
</div><p>The obvious threat is to revenue, with some brands losing more than 80% of market share in their first-year post-expiry, but beyond loss of exclusivity, drug companies are facing a less obvious challenge. With an unprecedented amount of patent cliffs looming, biopharma organizations are facing a stress test, measuring the effects their cross-functional teams can understand, interpret, and respond to increasingly complex factors, as new assets are introduced to market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显而易见的威胁是收入，一些品牌在专利到期后的第一年市场份额下降超过 80%，但除了失去独占性外，制药公司还面临一个不那么明显的挑战。随着前所未有的专利悬崖逼近，生物制药组织正在经历压力测试，衡量其跨职能团队理解、解读和应对日益复杂因素的能力，因为新资产被引入市场。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, innovation pipelines are becoming more crowded, particularly in oncology, inflammation, and neurology, as intensifying competition and differentiation become harder to sustain. Scientific clout continues to remain essential, but it’s not sufficient on its own. The ability to translate innovation into meaningful impact, ensuring therapies are understood, adopted, and valued by patients, providers, and healthcare systems, is the real driving force on the road to peak sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，创新管道变得更加拥挤，特别是在肿瘤学、炎症和神经学领域，竞争加剧，差异化变得更难维持。科学实力仍然至关重要，但仅靠这一点是不够的。将创新转化为有意义的影响，确保疗法被患者、提供者和医疗系统理解、采用和重视，才是真正推动销售峰值的动力。</p>
</div><p>Many organizations lack a clear shared understanding of the external landscape, which compromises effective commercialisation strategy development. Despite unprecedented access to data, there is often limited insight into the moments that matter to patients, the dynamics shaping stakeholder decisions, and the competitive landscape that defines where real advantage lies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多组织缺乏对外部环境的清晰共同理解，这妨碍了有效的商业化战略发展。尽管获得数据的机会前所未有，但对患者重要时刻、影响利益相关者决策的动态以及定义真正优势的竞争环境的洞察往往有限。</p>
</div><p>This is the deeper issue laid bare by the patent cliff crisis: an industry full of organizations that are data-rich but often insight-poor. Organizations that are internally aligned but insufficiently anchored in external reality to ensure new assets show up in the right shape and to a receptive market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是专利悬崖危机所暴露的更深层次问题：一个充满数据丰富但往往洞察贫乏的组织的行业。组织内部协调一致，但在外部现实中缺乏足够的锚定，以确保新资产以正确的形态出现在一个接受的市场中。</p>
</div><p>The patient experience is a prime example of where the data-rich and insight-poor approach becomes problematic. Too often, understanding the patient experience is approached as a mapping exercise rather than a means of uncovering real insight. Different functions build different versions of the patient journey, shaped by their own data, priorities, and assumptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>患者体验就是一个典型例子，数据丰富但洞察贫乏的方法变得问题重重。理解患者体验往往被视为一种映射练习，而不是揭示真实洞察的手段。不同职能构建了不同版本的患者旅程，这些版本受到各自数据、优先事项和假设的影响。</p>
</div><p>The result is not a lack of information, but a lack of clarity about what truly matters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果并不是信息的缺乏，而是对真正重要事物缺乏清晰认识。</p>
</div><p>Organizations may understand clinical performance in detail, yet lack visibility on where decisions are actually made, what drives behaviour change, and how unmet needs are experienced in real-world settings. Crucially, they often miss the points where emotion, practical constraint, and clinical need intersect to shape action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>组织可能详细了解临床表现，但对决策实际发生的地方、驱动行为变化的因素以及未满足需求在现实世界中的体验缺乏可见性。至关重要的是，他们常常错过情感、实际限制和临床需求交汇的点，这些点塑造了行动。</p>
</div><p>These are the moments that matter; the inflection points where patient experience directly influences outcomes. They’re not always obvious, and they rarely sit neatly within a single function’s view of the world. Yet it’s here that real opportunity exists to understand how patients feel, and crucially, what those feelings enable or prevent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些是重要时刻；患者体验直接影响结果的拐点。它们并不总是显而易见，也很少整齐地位于单一职能的视野中。然而，正是在这里，真正的机会存在于理解患者的感受，以及这些感受所促成或阻碍的事情。</p>
</div><p>Without a shared, deeply grounded view of these moments, strategy risks becoming internally coherent but externally misaligned. Biopharma organizations optimise for consensus rather than clarity, reinforcing assumptions instead of challenging them. In a market where differentiation depends on relevance, that lack of clarity quickly becomes a critical vulnerability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果没有对这些时刻的共同、深刻的理解，战略就有可能在内部一致但在外部不协调。生物制药组织优化共识而非清晰，强化假设而不是挑战它们。在一个差异化依赖于相关性的市场中，这种缺乏清晰度迅速成为一个关键脆弱点。</p>
</div><p>As organizations struggle to see the moments that matter, they can also struggle to understand the forces shaping their market and where the real levers for growth truly sit. Healthcare decision-making is shaped by a complex interplay of incentives, stakeholder dynamics, and emerging trends, yet these forces are often only partially understood.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当组织努力识别重要时刻时，他们也可能难以理解塑造其市场的力量以及真正的增长杠杆所在。医疗决策受到激励、利益相关者动态和新兴趋势的复杂相互作用的影响，但这些力量往往只被部分理解。</p>
</div><p>A persistent challenge is the lack of economic clarity, as decisions about where to invest or how to drive growth are frequently made on assumption, without fully understanding how incentive structures influence behaviour across the patient pathway. Small shifts in these dynamics can meaningfully increase the number of patients reached or the value each patient represents but without a clear view, those opportunities remain hidden.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个持续的挑战是缺乏经济清晰度，因为关于投资方向或如何推动增长的决策常常基于假设，而没有充分理解激励结构如何影响患者路径中的行为。这些动态的小变化可以显著增加接触到的患者数量或每位患者所代表的价值，但没有清晰的视角，这些机会仍然隐藏。</p>
</div><p>Stakeholder engagement presents a similar challenge. Organizations may identify who matters but can lack a deeper understanding of who shapes their thinking and to what degree. Influence is rarely explicit or evenly distributed, and without accurately mapping these dynamics, efforts to engage can miss their mark.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利益相关者参与呈现出类似的挑战。组织可能识别出重要人物，但对谁塑造他们的思维及其程度缺乏更深的理解。影响力很少是明确或均匀分布的，如果没有准确映射这些动态，参与的努力可能会失去目标。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the volume of market data continues to grow, making it harder to distinguish between the signals that carry genuine strategic consequence from the noise that does not. Without a rigorous, externally grounded understanding of these forces, organizations risk making confident decisions but not necessarily the right ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，市场数据的数量持续增长，使得更难区分具有真正战略意义的信号与无关的噪音。如果没有对这些力量的严格、外部基础的理解，组织可能会做出自信的决策，但不一定是正确的决策。</p>
</div><p>How organizations interpret the competitive landscape has made the cost of incomplete insight more visible. As exclusivity is lost and biosimilars and new entrants reshape established markets, the competitive environment is both intensifying and being constantly redrawn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>组织如何解读竞争环境使得不完整洞察的成本更加明显。随着独占性丧失，生物类似药和新进入者重塑既有市场，竞争环境既在加剧又在不断重绘。</p>
</div><p>Yet many organizations still rely on static or surface-level views of competition. There may be a clear understanding of current rivals, but less clarity on where true clinical differentiation exists, how it translates into a compelling value story, and where positioning is genuinely strong versus where it is more vulnerable than assumed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，许多组织仍然依赖静态或表层的竞争视图。对当前竞争对手可能有清晰的理解，但对真正的临床差异化存在的地方、如何转化为引人注目的价值故事以及定位真正强势与假设中更脆弱的地方缺乏清晰度。</p>
</div><p>A more effective approach requires an honest assessment of the competitive environment, one that goes beyond product comparisons to examine how innovation is shifting the landscape itself. Competitor technologies, emerging modalities, and evolving standards of care all have the potential to redefine what advantage looks like and the critical question remains how the basis of competition is changing, and whether those changes represent an opening to move toward or a disruption to get ahead of.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更有效的方法需要对竞争环境进行诚实评估，超越产品比较，审视创新如何改变整个格局。竞争对手的技术、新兴模式和不断演变的护理标准都有可能重新定义优势的样子，关键问题仍然是竞争基础如何变化，以及这些变化是否代表着向前迈进的机会或需要超越的干扰。</p>
</div><p>Too often, competitive insight sits in isolation, disconnected from broader strategic thinking. But in a market shaped by rapid change and increasing pressure, it must do more than inform; it must drive action that translates into genuine competitive advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争洞察往往孤立存在，与更广泛的战略思维脱节。但在一个快速变化和压力不断增加的市场中，它不仅仅需要提供信息；还必须推动行动，从而转化为真正的竞争优势。</p>
</div><p>As the patent cliff accelerates pressure across the industry, it will not impact all organizations equally. The differentiator will not be who has the most data, or even who has the strongest assets, but who has the clearest, most continuously updated understanding of the market they’re operating in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着专利悬崖加速对整个行业的压力，它对各个组织的影响并不相同。区分因素不在于谁拥有最多的数据，甚至不是谁拥有最强的资产，而在于谁对其所处市场有最清晰、最持续更新的理解。</p>
</div><p>Closing the insight gap becomes a strategic imperative, as it requires organizations to move beyond internal consensus-building and toward a shared, externally grounded view of reality; one that reflects how patients experience disease, how providers make decisions, how payers assess value, and how competitive dynamics are evolving in the real world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>缩小洞察差距成为战略上的必要举措，因为这要求组织超越内部共识的建立，朝着一个共享的、以外部为基础的现实观迈进；这个现实观反映了患者如何体验疾病、提供者如何做出决策、支付方如何评估价值，以及竞争动态在现实世界中如何演变。</p>
</div><p>This shift is not simply about improving alignment across functions, although that’s a big part of it, rather it’s about changing the basis on which alignment is formed. Instead of reconciling different internal perspectives, organizations must learn to anchor decisions in a common interpretation of external truth and continuously challenge whether that interpretation still holds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种转变不仅仅是改善各职能之间的协调，尽管这也是一个重要部分，而是关于改变协调形成的基础。组织必须学会将决策锚定在对外部真相的共同解读上，并不断挑战这种解读是否仍然成立。</p>
</div><p>That demands a cultural, as well as operational, shift breaking down silos, creating shared visibility of insight, and empowering teams to interrogate assumptions. It also requires treating strategy not as a static output, but as a living capability that evolves alongside the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不仅需要文化上的转变，还需要操作上的转变，打破孤岛，创造共享的洞察可见性，并赋权团队质疑假设。它还要求将战略视为一种动态能力，而不是静态的产出，随着市场的变化而不断演变。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, the organizations best positioned to navigate the patent cliff will be those that can turn insight into action faster, and with greater confidence. In an environment defined by complexity and change, better insight will be the foundation of competitive advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，能够更快、更自信地将洞察转化为行动的组织，将是那些在专利悬崖中处于最佳位置的组织。在一个由复杂性和变化定义的环境中，更好的洞察将是竞争优势的基础。</p>
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洞察差距：生物制药在面对专利悬崖竞赛时的隐藏风险