<p>市场正在火热运行。创纪录的高点，强劲的科技反弹，以及一场让投资者怀疑旧规则是否仍然适用的人工智能交易。</p>
<p>但牛津俱乐部的首席收入策略师 Marc Lichtenfeld 并没有在这个时刻寻找买入的机会。他在考虑的是卖出什么。</p>
<p>“你想要正确，还是想要赚钱？” 这个问题构成了他整个论点的框架。</p>
<p>今年五月，有三只股票进入了他的卖出名单——并不是因为日历的原因，而是因为基本面、图表和市场定位都指向同一个方向。</p>
<p>自 1945 年以来，标准普尔 500 指数在 11 月至 4 月之间的平均收益约为 7%，而在 5 月至 10 月之间仅为 2%。这不是崩盘，但也不是持有弱势头寸的环境。老话 “五月卖出，远离市场” 背后有数据支持。</p>
<p>Lichtenfeld 并没有预测市场崩溃。价格依然强劲，他预计这种情况将持续。他所做的是利用这个时刻削减那些在投资组合中没有表现出应有价值的股票。</p>
<h2>DexCom：多头过多，动能不足</h2>
<p>DexCom（NASDAQ: DXCM）已经连续五年下跌。不是修正——而是下跌。</p>
<p>然而，目前 24 位华尔街分析师中有 20 位将其评级为买入，只有约 4% 的流通股被做空。</p>
<p>Lichtenfeld 表示，这种不对称的乐观情绪是一个红旗，而不是绿灯。</p>
<p>该公司生产连续血糖监测仪，这是一个真正增长的市场。问题在于，DexCom 对这一增长的掌控似乎不如以前稳固。雅培（Abbott Laboratories，NYSE: ABT）及其 FreeStyle Libre 平台正在抢占市场份额，而 DexCom 还必须应对运营审查，包括与 2024 年检查相关的 2025 年 3 月 4 日的 FDA 警告信。同时，GLP-1 药物正在改变糖尿病的格局，可能会改变一些患者随时间监测血糖的强度。</p>
<p>收入仍在上升，但增速已经放缓——对于一只通常只有在增长明显加速时才会获得奖励的股票来说，这是一个不舒服的组合。</p>
<p>作为一名前卖方分析师，Lichtenfeld 知道为何共识依然看涨：职业风险、群体思维和投资银行关系都推动华尔街倾向于买入评级。当共识达到极端水平时，他往往会选择反向操作。</p>
<h2>高露洁 - 棕榄：一只无处可去的股票</h2>
<p>高露洁 - 棕榄（NYSE: CL）并不是一场灾难。它更令人沮丧：一家市值 690 亿美元、股息收益率为 2.5% 的公司，经历了两年的平稳表现，且没有催化剂在前方。</p>
<p>推拉关系很简单。品牌忠诚度是真实存在的——高露洁牙膏是许多家庭的习惯——但并不是每个产品都享有同样的定价权。例如，Ajax 清洁剂和 Palmolive 洗碗液属于低转换成本的类别。当杂货账单高企时，消费者会仔细审查每一项支出，而通用替代品则成为真正的威胁。</p>
<p>这就是为什么该股票的 “防御性” 吸引力在边际上可能会产生误导：如果消费者在低转换类别中选择降级，向上的案例就更难以证明。今年内部人士的卖出增加，而没有购买来抵消。而且，尽管增长处于低到中个位数的水平，股票的市盈率约为 23 倍，如果业绩仅仅 “尚可”，那么估值缓冲就不多了。</p>
<p>如果你在寻找防御性配置，Lichtenfeld 表示还有更好的选择。例如，Black Hills Corporation（NYSE: BKH），一家在怀俄明州有数据中心曝光的公用事业公司，提供更强的收益和真正与人工智能相关的增长故事。从更广泛的角度来看，某些医疗保健和房地产投资信托（REIT）名称可以提供更清晰的现金流前景。高露洁 - 棕榄目前并没有提供这种收入支持和可见性的组合。</p>
<h2>甲骨文：人工智能交易中最危险的赌注</h2>
<p>甲骨文（NYSE: ORCL）从低点反弹迅速。动能看起来真实，Lichtenfeld 仍然认为它可能是人工智能泡沫最终破裂时的典型代表。</p>
<p>核心问题在于资产负债表。甲骨文披露了大约 2500 亿美元的额外租赁承诺，这些承诺主要与数据中心和云容量安排相关，这些承诺在开始之前不会像传统债务那样影响资产负债表。预计该公司今年的自由现金流将为负 250 亿美元，明年为负 260 亿美元，到 2030 年将约为负 1000 亿美元。与 390 亿美元的现金和 1250 亿美元的现有债务相比，这个数字非常紧张。</p>
<p>为了填补这个缺口，甲骨文将不得不筹集资金——要么通过股权发行稀释股东，要么在其资产负债表不佳的情况下以不便宜的利率增加更多债务。</p>
<p>更大的风险在于整个建设的依赖：OpenAI 与甲骨文的 Stargate 合作被描述为在未来五年内超过 3000 亿美元，涉及大规模的数据中心和计算扩展。这样的规模使得建设的经济学得以运作。但据报道，OpenAI 的首席财务官对公司能否快速实现增长目标以证明这种支出速度表示担忧。</p>
<p>如果需求或增长假设下滑，甲骨文可能会面临巨大的前期产能和融资承诺，这些承诺更难以吸收。</p>
<p>将其与 Meta Platforms（NASDAQ: META）、亚马逊（NASDAQ: AMZN）、谷歌（NASDAQ: GOOGL）和微软（NASDAQ: MSFT）进行比较——这四家公司被认为计划在人工智能相关支出上总计达到 7000 亿美元，且拥有更大的现金流缓冲以吸收波动。甲骨文没有这样的缓冲。</p>
<h2>纪律胜于日历</h2>
<p>“五月卖出，远离市场” 这一规则并不是关于恐慌，而是关于纪律。DexCom、高露洁 - 棕榄和甲骨文各自都有特定的问题，但它们有一个共同点：当情绪、估值和融资需求不再一致时，风险/回报的案例可能会减弱。</p>
<p>这就是为什么利希滕费尔德认为现在有更好的资本投资地点。无论夏季放缓是否遵循历史剧本，还是人工智能交易重写了剧本，持有那些表现不佳的股票通常不会带来回报。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1,000 美元在甲骨文吗？</h2>
<p>在考虑甲骨文之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只顶级分析师悄悄建议客户现在购买的股票，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而甲骨文并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然甲骨文目前在分析师中获得了中等买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>

甲骨文

德康医疗

高露洁

2 倍做多 ORCL ETF - Defiance

<p>来自牛津俱乐部的 Marc Lichtenfeld 建议在今年五月出售三只股票：德康医疗、高露洁和甲骨文。他认为，市场的强劲表现并不足以支撑持有这些股票，因为存在各种风险。德康医疗面临竞争加剧和运营审查，高露洁的增长停滞且没有催化剂，而甲骨文的财务承诺则引发了对其未来现金流的担忧。Lichtenfeld 强调，在此期间削减投资组合中弱势头寸的重要性</p>

<p>The market is running hot. Record highs, a strong tech rally, and an AI trade that has investors wondering whether the old rules still apply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场正在火热运行。创纪录的高点，强劲的科技反弹，以及一场让投资者怀疑旧规则是否仍然适用的人工智能交易。</p>
</div><p>But Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist at the Oxford Club, isn't spending this moment looking for what to buy. He's looking at what to unload.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但牛津俱乐部的首席收入策略师 Marc Lichtenfeld 并没有在这个时刻寻找买入的机会。他在考虑的是卖出什么。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Do you want to be right, or do you want to make money?&#34; That question frames his entire argument.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“你想要正确，还是想要赚钱？” 这个问题构成了他整个论点的框架。</p>
</div><p>This May, three stocks made his sell list—not because the calendar says so, but because the fundamentals, the charts, and the positioning all point in the same direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年五月，有三只股票进入了他的卖出名单——并不是因为日历的原因，而是因为基本面、图表和市场定位都指向同一个方向。</p>
</div><p>Going back to 1945, the S&amp;P 500 has averaged roughly 7% gains between November and April, compared to just 2% from May through October. That's not a crash, but it's not the environment to be holding weak positions in. The old &#34;sell in May and go away&#34; expression has data behind it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1945 年以来，标准普尔 500 指数在 11 月至 4 月之间的平均收益约为 7%，而在 5 月至 10 月之间仅为 2%。这不是崩盘，但也不是持有弱势头寸的环境。老话 “五月卖出，远离市场” 背后有数据支持。</p>
</div><p>Lichtenfeld isn't calling for a market collapse. Prices are strong, and he expects that to continue. What he is doing is using this moment to trim names that aren't earning their spot in a portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lichtenfeld 并没有预测市场崩溃。价格依然强劲，他预计这种情况将持续。他所做的是利用这个时刻削减那些在投资组合中没有表现出应有价值的股票。</p>
</div><h2>DexCom: Too Many Bulls, Too Little Momentum</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>DexCom：多头过多，动能不足</h2>
</div><p>DexCom NASDAQ: DXCM has been falling for five years. Not correcting—falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DexCom（NASDAQ: DXCM）已经连续五年下跌。不是修正——而是下跌。</p>
</div><p>And yet 20 out of 24 Wall Street analysts currently rate it a Buy, and only about 4% of the float is sold short.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，目前 24 位华尔街分析师中有 20 位将其评级为买入，只有约 4% 的流通股被做空。</p>
</div><p>That kind of lopsided optimism, Lichtenfeld says, is a red flag, not a green light.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lichtenfeld 表示，这种不对称的乐观情绪是一个红旗，而不是绿灯。</p>
</div><p>The company makes continuous glucose monitors, which is a genuinely growing market. The problem is that DexCom’s grip on that growth looks less secure than it used to. Abbott Laboratories NYSE: ABT and its FreeStyle Libre platform have been taking share, and DexCom has also had to contend with operational scrutiny, including an FDA warning letter dated March 4, 2025, tied to inspections in 2024. At the same time, GLP-1 drugs are changing the diabetes landscape, potentially altering how intensively some patients monitor glucose over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司生产连续血糖监测仪，这是一个真正增长的市场。问题在于，DexCom 对这一增长的掌控似乎不如以前稳固。雅培（Abbott Laboratories，NYSE: ABT）及其 FreeStyle Libre 平台正在抢占市场份额，而 DexCom 还必须应对运营审查，包括与 2024 年检查相关的 2025 年 3 月 4 日的 FDA 警告信。同时，GLP-1 药物正在改变糖尿病的格局，可能会改变一些患者随时间监测血糖的强度。</p>
</div><p>Revenue is still rising, but the pace has cooled—an uncomfortable mix for a stock that typically gets rewarded only when growth is clearly accelerating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收入仍在上升，但增速已经放缓——对于一只通常只有在增长明显加速时才会获得奖励的股票来说，这是一个不舒服的组合。</p>
</div><p>As a former sell-side analyst, Lichtenfeld knows why the consensus remains bullish: career risk, groupthink, and investment banking relationships all push Wall Street toward Buy ratings. When consensus reaches extreme levels, he tends to look the other way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一名前卖方分析师，Lichtenfeld 知道为何共识依然看涨：职业风险、群体思维和投资银行关系都推动华尔街倾向于买入评级。当共识达到极端水平时，他往往会选择反向操作。</p>
</div><h2>Colgate-Palmolive: A Stock With Nowhere to Go</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高露洁 - 棕榄：一只无处可去的股票</h2>
</div><p>Colgate-Palmolive NYSE: CL isn't a disaster. It's something more frustrating: a $69 billion company with a 2.5% dividend yield, two years of flat performance, and no catalyst on the horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高露洁 - 棕榄（NYSE: CL）并不是一场灾难。它更令人沮丧：一家市值 690 亿美元、股息收益率为 2.5% 的公司，经历了两年的平稳表现，且没有催化剂在前方。</p>
</div><p>The push-and-pull is straightforward. Brand loyalty is real—Colgate toothpaste is a habit for a lot of households—but not every product in the basket enjoys that same pricing power. Ajax cleaner and Palmolive dish soap, for example, fall into categories with low switching costs. And when grocery bills are elevated, shoppers scrutinize every line item, and generic alternatives become a real threat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推拉关系很简单。品牌忠诚度是真实存在的——高露洁牙膏是许多家庭的习惯——但并不是每个产品都享有同样的定价权。例如，Ajax 清洁剂和 Palmolive 洗碗液属于低转换成本的类别。当杂货账单高企时，消费者会仔细审查每一项支出，而通用替代品则成为真正的威胁。</p>
</div><p>That’s why the stock’s “defensive” appeal can be misleading at the margin: if consumers trade down in the lower-switching categories, the upside case gets harder to justify. Insider selling has picked up this year, with no purchases to offset it. And with the shares trading at roughly 23x earnings despite low-to-mid single-digit growth, there isn’t much valuation cushion if results come in merely “fine.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么该股票的 “防御性” 吸引力在边际上可能会产生误导：如果消费者在低转换类别中选择降级，向上的案例就更难以证明。今年内部人士的卖出增加，而没有购买来抵消。而且，尽管增长处于低到中个位数的水平，股票的市盈率约为 23 倍，如果业绩仅仅 “尚可”，那么估值缓冲就不多了。</p>
</div><p>If you're looking for defensive positioning, Lichtenfeld says there are better options. For example, Black Hills Corporation NYSE: BKH, a utility with data center exposure in Wyoming, offers a stronger yield and a genuine AI-adjacent growth story. And in a broader sense, certain healthcare and REIT names can offer clearer line-of-sight into cash flows. Colgate-Palmolive doesn’t offer that same combination of income support and visibility right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在寻找防御性配置，Lichtenfeld 表示还有更好的选择。例如，Black Hills Corporation（NYSE: BKH），一家在怀俄明州有数据中心曝光的公用事业公司，提供更强的收益和真正与人工智能相关的增长故事。从更广泛的角度来看，某些医疗保健和房地产投资信托（REIT）名称可以提供更清晰的现金流前景。高露洁 - 棕榄目前并没有提供这种收入支持和可见性的组合。</p>
</div><h2>Oracle: The AI Trade's Most Dangerous Bet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>甲骨文：人工智能交易中最危险的赌注</h2>
</div><p>Oracle NYSE: ORCL has bounced sharply off its lows. The momentum looks real, and Lichtenfeld still thinks it could be the poster child for when the AI bubble eventually breaks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文（NYSE: ORCL）从低点反弹迅速。动能看起来真实，Lichtenfeld 仍然认为它可能是人工智能泡沫最终破裂时的典型代表。</p>
</div><p>The core issue is the balance sheet. Oracle has disclosed roughly $250 billion in additional lease commitments tied largely to data centers and cloud capacity arrangements, commitments that do not hit the balance sheet in the same way traditional debt does until they begin. The company is expected to be $25 billion free cash flow negative this year, $26 billion next year, and roughly $100 billion in the hole by 2030. Against $39 billion in cash and $125 billion in existing debt, that math is tight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心问题在于资产负债表。甲骨文披露了大约 2500 亿美元的额外租赁承诺，这些承诺主要与数据中心和云容量安排相关，这些承诺在开始之前不会像传统债务那样影响资产负债表。预计该公司今年的自由现金流将为负 250 亿美元，明年为负 260 亿美元，到 2030 年将约为负 1000 亿美元。与 390 亿美元的现金和 1250 亿美元的现有债务相比，这个数字非常紧张。</p>
</div><p>To fund the gap, Oracle will have to raise capital—either diluting shareholders through equity issuance or taking on more debt at rates that won't be cheap given its balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了填补这个缺口，甲骨文将不得不筹集资金——要么通过股权发行稀释股东，要么在其资产负债表不佳的情况下以不便宜的利率增加更多债务。</p>
</div><p>The bigger risk is what the entire buildout depends on: OpenAI and Oracle’s Stargate partnership has been described as exceeding $300 billion over the next five years, tied to massive data center and compute expansion. That scale is what makes the economics of the buildout work. But OpenAI’s CFO has reportedly raised concerns internally about whether the company can hit its growth goals fast enough to justify that pace of spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更大的风险在于整个建设的依赖：OpenAI 与甲骨文的 Stargate 合作被描述为在未来五年内超过 3000 亿美元，涉及大规模的数据中心和计算扩展。这样的规模使得建设的经济学得以运作。但据报道，OpenAI 的首席财务官对公司能否快速实现增长目标以证明这种支出速度表示担忧。</p>
</div><p>If demand or growth assumptions slip, Oracle could be left with enormous forward capacity and financing commitments that are harder to absorb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果需求或增长假设下滑，甲骨文可能会面临巨大的前期产能和融资承诺，这些承诺更难以吸收。</p>
</div><p>Compare that to Meta Platforms NASDAQ: META, Amazon NASDAQ: AMZN, Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGL, and Microsoft NASDAQ: MSFT—four companies that have been cited as collectively planning AI-related spending on the order of $700 billion, with far larger cash-flow buffers to absorb volatility. Oracle does not have that cushion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将其与 Meta Platforms（NASDAQ: META）、亚马逊（NASDAQ: AMZN）、谷歌（NASDAQ: GOOGL）和微软（NASDAQ: MSFT）进行比较——这四家公司被认为计划在人工智能相关支出上总计达到 7000 亿美元，且拥有更大的现金流缓冲以吸收波动。甲骨文没有这样的缓冲。</p>
</div><h2>Discipline Over Calendar</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>纪律胜于日历</h2>
</div><p>The &#34;sell in May and go away&#34; rule isn't about panic; it's about discipline. DexCom, Colgate-Palmolive, and Oracle each have their own specific problems, but they share one thing in common: the risk/reward case can weaken when sentiment, valuation, and financing needs stop lining up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“五月卖出，远离市场” 这一规则并不是关于恐慌，而是关于纪律。DexCom、高露洁 - 棕榄和甲骨文各自都有特定的问题，但它们有一个共同点：当情绪、估值和融资需求不再一致时，风险/回报的案例可能会减弱。</p>
</div><p>This is why Lichtenfeld thinks there are better places to put capital right now. Whether the summer slowdown follows the historical script or the AI trade rewrites it, holding stocks that aren't working rarely pays off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么利希滕费尔德认为现在有更好的资本投资地点。无论夏季放缓是否遵循历史剧本，还是人工智能交易重写了剧本，持有那些表现不佳的股票通常不会带来回报。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Oracle Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1,000 美元在甲骨文吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Oracle, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑甲骨文之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Oracle wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已经识别出五只顶级分析师悄悄建议客户现在购买的股票，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而甲骨文并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Oracle currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然甲骨文目前在分析师中获得了中等买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

五月卖出然后离场——从这三只股票开始