<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/01/AI-image-showing-copper-and-aluminium-bars-in-a-warehouse.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/01/AI-image-showing-copper-and-aluminium-bars-in-a-warehouse.jpg"/></p>
<p>欧洲铝生产商正准备迎接成本的急剧上升，因为欧盟准备对其排放交易系统（EU ETS）进行改革。</p>
<p>这项改革旨在给予企业更多时间进行脱碳，包括对决定碳配额免费分配的基准值进行调整。</p>
<p>根据 Commerzbank AG 的外汇和商品分析师 Norman Liebke 的说法，新的基准方法对回收商和精炼商构成了严重威胁。</p>
<h2>铝生产商在 EU ETS 改革下面临更高成本</h2>
<p>“铝回收或铝土矿精炼没有设定具体的产品基准值，因此使用了所谓的替代基准值，” Liebke 解释道。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>这些替代基准值在 2026 年至 2030 年期间将比 2021 年至 2025 年的值减少 34%，这将要求回收商和精炼厂购买更多的配额。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>行业协会欧洲铝业警告称，这些变化可能会削弱竞争力。</p>
<p>铝价是全球设定的，这意味着生产商无法简单地将更高的成本转嫁给客户。</p>
<p>Liebke 指出，盈利能力可能会 “受到重大影响”，尤其是回收行业可能面临被挤压的风险。</p>
<p>改革还修订了提名区块的特许权框架，并计划设立脱碳基金以及调整市场稳定储备。</p>
<p>虽然欧盟打算缓解向更绿色生产的过渡，但行业声音认为，意想不到的后果可能会削弱欧洲的回收行业，而这对该地区的气候目标至关重要。</p>
<h2>铜价无视地缘政治不确定性</h2>
<p>与铝的政策驱动挑战相比，铜市场在持续的地缘政治风险中仍然飙升至创纪录高位。</p>
<p>价格距离 1 月份的日内纪录仅差 500 美元，受到金融市场强劲投资者需求的推动。</p>
<p>Commerzbank AG 外汇和商品研究负责人 Thu Lan Nguyen 表示，这一反弹反映了人们对伊朗冲突经济影响将保持有限的信心——至少如果和平谈判最终重新开启霍尔木兹海峡的话。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>最近几周在广泛金融市场上看到的复苏表明，市场目前仅担心来自中东持续危机的有限经济影响。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普拒绝德黑兰最新提案后，油价再次上涨，但铜价依然保持韧性。</p>
<p>然而，Nguyen 警告称，“封锁持续的时间越长，对全球经济的影响可能越严重，这意味着不应低估回调的风险。”</p>
<h2>供应因素提供支持</h2>
<p>除了地缘政治，供应方面的发展也在支撑铜价。</p>
<p>中国 4 月份的贸易数据显示铜矿石进口放缓，引发了对全球最大生产国生产活力不足的担忧。</p>
<p>Nguyen 指出，霍尔木兹海峡的封锁限制了硫酸的供应，而硫酸是铜矿开采的关键原料。“这反过来可能加剧铜矿石的短缺，” 她说。</p>
<p>供应受限与电气化和可再生能源项目的强劲需求相结合，进一步巩固了铜的看涨前景。</p>
<p>交易员们押注基本面将超过地缘政治风险，至少在短期内如此。</p>
<h2>商品前景分化</h2>
<p>Commerzbank 的更新突显了欧洲商品市场的显著分化。</p>
<p>铝生产商面临日益增加的监管成本，这可能侵蚀盈利能力并削弱回收，而铜市场则因结构性需求和供应限制而持续上涨，即使地缘政治风险依然存在。</p>
<p>Liebke 警告称，EU ETS 改革可能 “威胁到欧洲铝生产商，特别是回收商的竞争力”，而 Nguyen 强调，如果中东冲突持续，铜的反弹也并非没有回调的风险。</p>
<p>他们的分析共同强调了当今商品市场的复杂性：政策改革和地缘政治冲击正在重塑基本面，但投资者情绪和结构性需求仍在推动金属市场的不同结果。</p>
<p>铝回收商警告 EU ETS 影响，铜价接近纪录高位的文章最初发布在 Invezz 上。</p>

COPP

铜矿 ETF - GlobalX

金属采矿 ETF - SPDR

德银基础金属 ETF - PowerShares

COPJ

ICOP

ALUM

KEUA

美国铜指数基金 - Concierge Technologies

全球金属和采矿生产商 MSCI ETF - iShares

<p>欧洲铝生产商正面临因欧盟对其排放交易系统（EU ETS）进行改革而导致的成本增加，这对回收商和精炼商构成威胁。新的基准方法缺乏铝回收的具体数值，导致所需的碳配额大幅上升。与此同时，铜价接近历史高位，受到强劲需求和供应限制的推动，尽管地缘政治不确定性依然存在。分析师指出，商品市场的对比十分明显，铝的盈利能力面临风险，而铜则受益于强劲的市场条件</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/01/AI-image-showing-copper-and-aluminium-bars-in-a-warehouse.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/01/AI-image-showing-copper-and-aluminium-bars-in-a-warehouse.jpg"/></p>
<p>European aluminium producers are bracing for a sharp rise in costs as the European Union prepares to overhaul its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲铝生产商正准备迎接成本的急剧上升，因为欧盟准备对其排放交易系统（EU ETS）进行改革。</p>
</div><p>The reform, designed to give companies more time to decarbonise, includes changes to benchmark values that determine the free allocation of carbon allowances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这项改革旨在给予企业更多时间进行脱碳，包括对决定碳配额免费分配的基准值进行调整。</p>
</div><p>According to Norman Liebke, FX and commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, the new benchmark methodology poses a serious threat to recyclers and refiners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Commerzbank AG 的外汇和商品分析师 Norman Liebke 的说法，新的基准方法对回收商和精炼商构成了严重威胁。</p>
</div><h2>Aluminium producers face higher costs under EU ETS reform</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>铝生产商在 EU ETS 改革下面临更高成本</h2>
</div><p>“No specific product benchmark values are set for aluminium recycling or alumina refining, meaning so‑called fallback benchmark values are used,” Liebke explained.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“铝回收或铝土矿精炼没有设定具体的产品基准值，因此使用了所谓的替代基准值，” Liebke 解释道。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>These are set to decrease by 34% for the 2026–2030 period compared to the 2021–2025 values, which would require recyclers and refineries to purchase significantly more allowances.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>这些替代基准值在 2026 年至 2030 年期间将比 2021 年至 2025 年的值减少 34%，这将要求回收商和精炼厂购买更多的配额。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>European Aluminium, the industry association, warned that the changes could undermine competitiveness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行业协会欧洲铝业警告称，这些变化可能会削弱竞争力。</p>
</div><p>Aluminium prices are set globally, meaning producers cannot simply pass on higher costs to customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铝价是全球设定的，这意味着生产商无法简单地将更高的成本转嫁给客户。</p>
</div><p>Liebke noted that profitability could be “massively impacted,” with recycling in particular at risk of being squeezed out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Liebke 指出，盈利能力可能会 “受到重大影响”，尤其是回收行业可能面临被挤压的风险。</p>
</div><p>The reform also revises royalty frameworks for nomination blocks, alongside plans for a decarbonisation fund and adjustments to the market stability reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>改革还修订了提名区块的特许权框架，并计划设立脱碳基金以及调整市场稳定储备。</p>
</div><p>While the EU intends to ease the transition toward greener production, industry voices argue that the unintended consequence may be to weaken Europe’s recycling sector, which is central to the bloc’s climate ambitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然欧盟打算缓解向更绿色生产的过渡，但行业声音认为，意想不到的后果可能会削弱欧洲的回收行业，而这对该地区的气候目标至关重要。</p>
</div><h2>Copper shrugs off geopolitical uncertainty</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>铜价无视地缘政治不确定性</h2>
</div><p>In contrast to aluminium’s policy‑driven challenges, copper markets are surging toward record highs despite ongoing geopolitical risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与铝的政策驱动挑战相比，铜市场在持续的地缘政治风险中仍然飙升至创纪录高位。</p>
</div><p>Prices came within $500 of January’s intraday record, buoyed by strong investor appetite across financial markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格距离 1 月份的日内纪录仅差 500 美元，受到金融市场强劲投资者需求的推动。</p>
</div><p>Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank AG, said the rally reflects confidence that the economic fallout from the Iran conflict will remain limited — at least if peace talks eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Commerzbank AG 外汇和商品研究负责人 Thu Lan Nguyen 表示，这一反弹反映了人们对伊朗冲突经济影响将保持有限的信心——至少如果和平谈判最终重新开启霍尔木兹海峡的话。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The recovery seen in recent weeks across a wide range of financial markets has shown that the market currently fears only limited economic repercussions from the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>最近几周在广泛金融市场上看到的复苏表明，市场目前仅担心来自中东持续危机的有限经济影响。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Oil prices have risen again after US President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s latest proposal, but copper has remained resilient.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普拒绝德黑兰最新提案后，油价再次上涨，但铜价依然保持韧性。</p>
</div><p>Nguyen cautioned, however, that “the longer the blockade lasts, the more severe the impact on the global economy is likely to be, meaning that the risk of setbacks should not be underestimated.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Nguyen 警告称，“封锁持续的时间越长，对全球经济的影响可能越严重，这意味着不应低估回调的风险。”</p>
</div><h2>Supply factors add support</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>供应因素提供支持</h2>
</div><p>Beyond geopolitics, supply‑side developments are also supporting copper prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了地缘政治，供应方面的发展也在支撑铜价。</p>
</div><p>Chinese trade data for April showed a slowdown in copper ore imports, raising concerns about less dynamic production in the world’s largest producer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国 4 月份的贸易数据显示铜矿石进口放缓，引发了对全球最大生产国生产活力不足的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Nguyen pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz blockade is limiting the supply of sulfuric acid, a key input in copper ore mining. “This, in turn, could exacerbate the shortage of copper ore,” she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nguyen 指出，霍尔木兹海峡的封锁限制了硫酸的供应，而硫酸是铜矿开采的关键原料。“这反过来可能加剧铜矿石的短缺，” 她说。</p>
</div><p>The combination of constrained supply and robust demand from electrification and renewable energy projects has reinforced copper’s bullish outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供应受限与电气化和可再生能源项目的强劲需求相结合，进一步巩固了铜的看涨前景。</p>
</div><p>Traders are betting that fundamentals will outweigh geopolitical risks, at least in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员们押注基本面将超过地缘政治风险，至少在短期内如此。</p>
</div><h2>Diverging commodity outlooks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>商品前景分化</h2>
</div><p>The updates from Commerzbank highlight a striking divergence in Europe’s commodity landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Commerzbank 的更新突显了欧洲商品市场的显著分化。</p>
</div><p>Aluminium producers face mounting regulatory costs that could erode profitability and weaken recycling, while copper markets are powering higher on structural demand and supply constraints, even as geopolitical risks linger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铝生产商面临日益增加的监管成本，这可能侵蚀盈利能力并削弱回收，而铜市场则因结构性需求和供应限制而持续上涨，即使地缘政治风险依然存在。</p>
</div><p>Liebke warned that the EU ETS reform could “threaten the competitiveness of European aluminium producers, particularly recyclers,” while Nguyen emphasised that copper’s rally is not immune to setbacks if the Middle East conflict drags on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Liebke 警告称，EU ETS 改革可能 “威胁到欧洲铝生产商，特别是回收商的竞争力”，而 Nguyen 强调，如果中东冲突持续，铜的反弹也并非没有回调的风险。</p>
</div><p>Together, their analysis underscores the complexity of today’s commodity markets: policy reforms and geopolitical shocks are reshaping fundamentals, but investor sentiment and structural demand continue to drive divergent outcomes across metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们的分析共同强调了当今商品市场的复杂性：政策改革和地缘政治冲击正在重塑基本面，但投资者情绪和结构性需求仍在推动金属市场的不同结果。</p>
</div><p>The post Aluminium recyclers warn of EU ETS hit, copper nears record highs appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铝回收商警告 EU ETS 影响，铜价接近纪录高位的文章最初发布在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Aluminium recyclers warn of EU ETS hit, copper nears record highs

invezz

Sprott Copper Miners ETF

Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF

iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF

WisdomTree Aluminium (German Cert.)

Kraneshares European Carbon Allowance ETF

Commerzbank AG

铝回收商警告欧盟排放交易体系可能带来的冲击，铜价逼近历史高位