<p>2026 年 5 月 11 日，一位顾客在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的 H-E-B 杂货店购买农产品。</p>
<p>Brandon Bell | Getty Images</p>
<p>交易员们在周二进一步降低了对美联储降息的预期，实际上开始预期下一步行动的可能性更高的是加息。</p>
<p>根据 CME 集团的 FedWatch 追踪 30 天联邦基金期货合约的数据，在一份高于预期的通胀报告发布后，市场几乎完全排除了在 2027 年底之前降息的任何可能性。</p>
<p>相反，他们预计在今年年底之前加息的可能性超过三分之一，因为人们的预期上升，生活成本问题将超过对劳动力市场恶化的担忧。</p>
<p>“在这个时候，我怀疑他们会保持不变，” 穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪告诉 CNBC。“美联储的决定因素将是通胀预期，如果它们继续上升……如果进一步突破，我认为美联储可能会专注于通胀并开始加息，而不是降息。”</p>
<p>尽管消费者调查显示通胀预期较高，但基于市场的指标大多保持温和。</p>
<p>然而，自伊朗战争开始以来，衍生合约——被称为 “远期合约”——一直在上涨，最近徘徊在 2025 年秋季最后一次出现的水平。</p>
<p>自 2 月底冲突开始以来，能源价格飙升，占消费者价格指数上涨的 40% 以上，这使得整体通胀水平达到了近三年来的最高点，依据周二发布的劳工统计局报告。</p>
<p>周二中午的市场定价暗示在年底之前加息的概率约为 37%。</p>
<p>鹰派市场预期对即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃什构成了特别挑战，沃什预计将在本月晚些时候接任。沃什一直公开支持降息，而总统唐纳德·特朗普对放松货币政策的预期也同样直言不讳。</p>
<p>“我实在看不出他在当前环境下如何获得任何支持来降息，” 赞迪谈到沃什时表示。“如果 [通胀预期继续] 上升，而它们确实在上升，那么这将很困难。不仅降息将不再是选项，甚至维持利率在当前水平也将相当困难。”</p>
<p>当然，周二一些华尔街评论强调了能源冲击对 CPI 数据的重要性。</p>
<p>雷蒙德·詹姆斯的首席经济学家尤金·阿莱曼表示，剔除食品、能源和住房后，4 月份的增幅要小得多，住房上涨了 0.6%，是自 2023 年 9 月以来的最大月度增幅。</p>
<p>同样，杰富瑞经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯指出，目前仍然只有轻微证据表明能源通胀的激增正在蔓延至经济。至少，西蒙斯预计美联储将保持不变，观察事态的发展。</p>
<p>“随着时间的推移，今年任何时候降息的机会正在减弱，但我们仍然预计政策利率的下一步行动将是降息而不是加息，” 西蒙斯在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>选择 CNBC 作为您在谷歌上的首选来源，永不错过商业新闻中最值得信赖的名字的任何时刻。</p>

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<p>在一份高于预期的通胀报告发布后，市场预期转向可能的美联储加息，年末加息的概率为 37%。交易员们已排除在 2027 年前降息的可能性。首席经济学家马克·赞迪指出，通胀预期将对美联储的决策至关重要。能源价格对消费者物价指数产生了显著影响，引发了对通胀的担忧。即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃什在这种环境下可能面临倡导降息的挑战，因为通胀预期持续上升</p>

<p>A customer shops for produce in an H-E-B grocery store on May 11, 2026 in Austin, Texas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年 5 月 11 日，一位顾客在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的 H-E-B 杂货店购买农产品。</p>
</div><p>Brandon Bell | Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Brandon Bell | Getty Images</p>
</div><p>Traders moved further away Tuesday from expecting any Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and in fact began anticipating a higher probability that the next move would be a hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员们在周二进一步降低了对美联储降息的预期，实际上开始预期下一步行动的可能性更高的是加息。</p>
</div><p>Following a hotter-than-expected inflation report, market pricing took virtually any chance of a cut off the table between now and the end of 2027, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tracker of 30-day fed funds futures contracts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CME 集团的 FedWatch 追踪 30 天联邦基金期货合约的数据，在一份高于预期的通胀报告发布后，市场几乎完全排除了在 2027 年底之前降息的任何可能性。</p>
</div><p>Instead, they priced in a better than 1-in-3 chance of an increase by the end of this year, as expectations rose that cost of living concerns would outweigh any worries about the labor market deteriorating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，他们预计在今年年底之前加息的可能性超过三分之一，因为人们的预期上升，生活成本问题将超过对劳动力市场恶化的担忧。</p>
</div><p>&#34;At this point, I suspect they just stay on hold,&#34; Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNBC. &#34;The deciding factor for the Fed will be inflation expectations, if they do continue to move higher ... If they break out any further, I think at that point the Fed will likely focus on inflation and start raising interest rates as opposed to cutting them.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在这个时候，我怀疑他们会保持不变，” 穆迪分析公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪告诉 CNBC。“美联储的决定因素将是通胀预期，如果它们继续上升……如果进一步突破，我认为美联储可能会专注于通胀并开始加息，而不是降息。”</p>
</div><p>While consumer surveys have indicated elevated inflation expectations, market-based measures had been mostly benign.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管消费者调查显示通胀预期较高，但基于市场的指标大多保持温和。</p>
</div><p>However, since the Iran war began, derivative contracts — known as &#34;forwards&#34; — have been climbing higher and most recently were hovering around levels last seen in the autumn of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，自伊朗战争开始以来，衍生合约——被称为 “远期合约”——一直在上涨，最近徘徊在 2025 年秋季最后一次出现的水平。</p>
</div><p>Since the fighting began in late February, energy prices have been soaring, accounting for more than 40% of a gain in the consumer price index that sent the headline inflation level to its highest in nearly three years, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2 月底冲突开始以来，能源价格飙升，占消费者价格指数上涨的 40% 以上，这使得整体通胀水平达到了近三年来的最高点，依据周二发布的劳工统计局报告。</p>
</div><p>Market pricing around noon Tuesday implied about a 37% probability of a rate increase before the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二中午的市场定价暗示在年底之前加息的概率约为 37%。</p>
</div><p>The hawkish market expectations pose a particular challenge for incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is expected to take the reins later his month. Warsh has been outspoken in favor of cutting, and President Donald Trump has been equally vocal about his expectations for an easing central bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鹰派市场预期对即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃什构成了特别挑战，沃什预计将在本月晚些时候接任。沃什一直公开支持降息，而总统唐纳德·特朗普对放松货币政策的预期也同样直言不讳。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I just don't see how he's going to get any kind of support for cutting interest rates in the current environment,&#34; Zandi said of Warsh. &#34;If [inflation expectations continue] to move higher, and they are drifting higher, it's going to be tough. Not only cutting rates will be off the table, but even holding rates where they are is going to be pretty tough.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我实在看不出他在当前环境下如何获得任何支持来降息，” 赞迪谈到沃什时表示。“如果 [通胀预期继续] 上升，而它们确实在上升，那么这将很困难。不仅降息将不再是选项，甚至维持利率在当前水平也将相当困难。”</p>
</div><p>To be sure, some Wall Street commentary Tuesday stressed the importance of the energy shock on the CPI data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，周二一些华尔街评论强调了能源冲击对 CPI 数据的重要性。</p>
</div><p>Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman said the April increase was much smaller when stripping out food, energy and shelter, the latter of which rose 0.6%, its biggest monthly increase since September 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雷蒙德·詹姆斯的首席经济学家尤金·阿莱曼表示，剔除食品、能源和住房后，4 月份的增幅要小得多，住房上涨了 0.6%，是自 2023 年 9 月以来的最大月度增幅。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, Jefferies economist Thomas Simons noted that there is still only slight evidence that the energy inflation spike is spreading through the economy. At the least, Simons expects the Fed to stay on hold as it watches events unfold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，杰富瑞经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯指出，目前仍然只有轻微证据表明能源通胀的激增正在蔓延至经济。至少，西蒙斯预计美联储将保持不变，观察事态的发展。</p>
</div><p>&#34;As time goes by, the chances of a rate cuts at any point this year are fading, but we still expect that the next move in policy rates is going to be a cut rather than a hike,&#34; Simons said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“随着时间的推移，今年任何时候降息的机会正在减弱，但我们仍然预计政策利率的下一步行动将是降息而不是加息，” 西蒙斯在一份报告中表示。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>选择 CNBC 作为您在谷歌上的首选来源，永不错过商业新闻中最值得信赖的名字的任何时刻。</p>
</div>

Markets raise chances for a Fed rate hike following hot inflation report

- 交易员们降低美联储降息预期，预计加息可能性超过三分之一。  
- 此前的通胀报告显示生活成本上涨，导致消费者价格指数创近三年新高。  
- 美联储新主席沃什面临挑战，降息支持难以获得。

在通胀报告显示数据强劲后，市场提高了美联储加息的预期