<p>尽管英国首相基尔·斯塔默在政治上仍在坚持，但英镑兑美元汇率正在急剧下跌，目前在主要货币对中是对美元最弱的。该货币对当天下跌约-0.65%，卖方在亚太和欧洲交易时段的关键技术突破后保持控制。</p>
<p>从技术上看，价格在亚太时段首次跌破 100 小时移动平均线，暗示买方的偏向发生了轻微转变。随后，卖方在早期欧洲交易中突破 200 小时移动平均线后，进一步增强了下行动能。这一看跌的转变将该货币对推向 1.3497 和 1.3512 之间的关键波动区间。</p>
<p>到目前为止，买方在该波动区间找到了支撑，而 100 日移动平均线在 1.34806 处略低于该区间。这些支撑水平现在是买方和卖方的关键指标。若跌破波动区间和 100 日移动平均线，将增加看跌偏向，并为进一步下行动能打开大门。</p>
<p>从 5 分钟图表来看，该货币对自昨日高点以来一直处于明确的下行趋势，但价格走势已开始在低点附近整合。修正反弹在 5 分钟图表的 100 条移动平均线附近多次停滞，目前在 1.35277。其上方，200 条移动平均线在 1.35477，继续向下趋势，有助于定义近期的看跌偏向。</p>
<p>今天低点的高位修正达到 1.35526，距离最新下跌的 38.2% 回撤位 1.3559 仅差一步。如果卖方要继续保持控制，这些阻力目标需要保持。若价格回升至 100 条移动平均线、200 条移动平均线和 38.2% 回撤位之上，将令趋势卖方失望，并可能触发更深的修正反弹。</p>
<p>英国首相基尔·斯塔默正处于其 22 个月任期中最危险的境地——本周可能决定他是否能继续留任。</p>
<p>工党在上周的地方选举中遭遇重大损失，失去了超过 1100 个之前占有的席位，而奈杰尔·法拉奇的改革英国党在全国范围内获得了超过 1400 个席位。这一结果引发了对斯塔默辞职的强烈呼声。</p>
<p>在周一的一次生死攸关的演讲中，斯塔默誓言要 “面对英国面临的重大挑战”，并将增长、国家防御、英国与欧洲的关系以及能源列为紧迫优先事项——坚称他知道自己有 “怀疑者”，但会 “证明他们是错的”。</p>
<p>但这对他自己党内的许多人来说还不够。ITV 新闻正在追踪工党议员，目前有超过 92 名议员公开呼吁他辞职。</p>
<p><strong>接下来会发生什么？</strong></p>
<p>要触发正式的领导竞选，挑战者需要获得 20% 的议会工党支持——即 81 名议员——并且这些支持者必须公开表态。与保守党不同，这不是秘密投票，首相自动获得参与竞选的权利。</p>
<p>潜在候选人正在关注：卫生部长韦斯·斯特里廷迄今为止一直不愿意采取第一步；安吉拉·雷纳需要更多时间来处理个人事务；而在公众中民调表现最佳的候选人安迪·伯纳姆目前无法行动，因为他甚至还不是议员。</p>
<p>更广泛的形势严峻——英国现在至少有五个主要政治力量，下一次大选必须在 2029 年 5 月之前举行。改革党、绿党、自民党和威尔士党都在为争取利益而布局。</p>
<p>斯塔默正在坚持。威斯敏斯特的数字是否最终迫使他采取行动，是未来几周的关键政治问题。</p>
<p>四名部长辞职，其中三名公开点名——<strong>杰斯·菲利普斯</strong>（保护部长）、<strong>亚历克斯·戴维斯 - 琼斯</strong>（部长）和 <strong>米亚塔·法恩布勒</strong>（去中心化、信仰与社区事务的初级部长）——均表示对首相缺乏信心。</p>
<p>法恩布勒表示，斯塔默 “失去了公众的信任和信心”。菲利普斯表示，她 “没有看到我和国家所期待的变化”，无法在当前领导下继续服务。</p>
<p>尽管表达对首相缺乏信心的议员人数已超过 81 人，只有当某位候选人将自己推向挑战斯塔默的顶端时，领导竞选才会被触发。</p>
<p>内阁整体目前仍然基本完好，尽管在私下明显分裂。周二，基尔·斯塔默告诉他的内阁，领导挑战尚未被触发，他打算 “继续治理”。</p>
<p>*** 在最近的头条新闻中，英国斯特里廷将于明天早上与斯塔默进行会谈。</p>

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PUS5

SGBP

英镑 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>英镑兑美元（GBPUSD）正经历显著下跌，较美元下跌约-0.65%，卖方在关键技术突破后重新掌控局面。该货币对已跌破关键移动平均线，显示出看跌趋势。英国首相基尔·斯塔默（Keir Starmer）在工党地方选举失利后面临政治挑战，超过 92 名议员呼吁他辞职。尽管如此，斯塔默仍决心执政并解决紧迫问题。政治格局正在变化，潜在的领导挑战者正在出现，但尚未触发正式的竞选</p>

<p>While UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hangs on politically, the GBPUSD is moving sharply lower and is currently the biggest decliner among the major currency pairs against the stronger US dollar. The pair is down around -0.65% on the day, with sellers maintaining control after key technical breaks during the Asian-Pacific and European sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英国首相基尔·斯塔默在政治上仍在坚持，但英镑兑美元汇率正在急剧下跌，目前在主要货币对中是对美元最弱的。该货币对当天下跌约-0.65%，卖方在亚太和欧洲交易时段的关键技术突破后保持控制。</p>
</div><p>Technically, the price first moved below the 100-hour moving average during the Asian-Pacific session, signaling a modest shift in bias away from the buyers. Sellers then increased downside momentum in early European trading after breaking below the 200-hour moving average. That bearish rotation pushed the pair down toward a key swing area between 1.3497 and 1.3512.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术上看，价格在亚太时段首次跌破 100 小时移动平均线，暗示买方的偏向发生了轻微转变。随后，卖方在早期欧洲交易中突破 200 小时移动平均线后，进一步增强了下行动能。这一看跌的转变将该货币对推向 1.3497 和 1.3512 之间的关键波动区间。</p>
</div><p>So far, buyers have found support against that swing area, while the rising 100-day moving average at 1.34806 remains just below. Those support levels are now critical barometers for buyers and sellers. A move below the swing area and the 100-day moving average would increase the bearish bias and open the door for further downside momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，买方在该波动区间找到了支撑，而 100 日移动平均线在 1.34806 处略低于该区间。这些支撑水平现在是买方和卖方的关键指标。若跌破波动区间和 100 日移动平均线，将增加看跌偏向，并为进一步下行动能打开大门。</p>
</div><p>Looking at the 5-minute chart, the pair has remained in a well-defined downward trend from yesterday’s high, but price action has started to consolidate near the lows. The corrective rebound has repeatedly stalled near the 100-bar moving average on the 5-minute chart, currently at 1.35277. Above that, the 200-bar moving average comes in at 1.35477 and continues to trend lower, helping define the near-term bearish bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 5 分钟图表来看，该货币对自昨日高点以来一直处于明确的下行趋势，但价格走势已开始在低点附近整合。修正反弹在 5 分钟图表的 100 条移动平均线附近多次停滞，目前在 1.35277。其上方，200 条移动平均线在 1.35477，继续向下趋势，有助于定义近期的看跌偏向。</p>
</div><p>The high correction off today’s low reached 1.35526, just short of the 38.2% retracement of the latest decline at 1.3559. If sellers are to remain firmly in control, those resistance targets would need to hold. A move back above the 100-bar MA, 200-bar MA, and the 38.2% retracement level would disappoint the trend sellers and could trigger a deeper corrective rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天低点的高位修正达到 1.35526，距离最新下跌的 38.2% 回撤位 1.3559 仅差一步。如果卖方要继续保持控制，这些阻力目标需要保持。若价格回升至 100 条移动平均线、200 条移动平均线和 38.2% 回撤位之上，将令趋势卖方失望，并可能触发更深的修正反弹。</p>
</div><p>UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is in the most precarious position of his 22-month tenure — and this week could define whether he survives it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英国首相基尔·斯塔默正处于其 22 个月任期中最危险的境地——本周可能决定他是否能继续留任。</p>
</div><p>Labour suffered major losses in last week's local elections, losing over 1,100 seats it had previously held, while Nigel Farage's Reform UK gained more than 1,400 seats across the country. The results triggered an avalanche of calls for Starmer to go.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工党在上周的地方选举中遭遇重大损失，失去了超过 1100 个之前占有的席位，而奈杰尔·法拉奇的改革英国党在全国范围内获得了超过 1400 个席位。这一结果引发了对斯塔默辞职的强烈呼声。</p>
</div><p>In a make-or-break speech on Monday, Starmer vowed to &#34;face up to the big challenges&#34; facing the UK, citing growth, national defence, the UK's relationship with Europe, and energy as urgent priorities — insisting he knows he has &#34;doubters&#34; but will &#34;prove them wrong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周一的一次生死攸关的演讲中，斯塔默誓言要 “面对英国面临的重大挑战”，并将增长、国家防御、英国与欧洲的关系以及能源列为紧迫优先事项——坚称他知道自己有 “怀疑者”，但会 “证明他们是错的”。</p>
</div><p>It hasn't been enough for many in his own party. ITV News is tracking Labour MPs, and currently more than 92 are publicly calling for him to go.I</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这对他自己党内的许多人来说还不够。ITV 新闻正在追踪工党议员，目前有超过 92 名议员公开呼吁他辞职。</p>
</div><p><strong>What comes next?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>接下来会发生什么？</strong></p>
</div><p>To trigger a formal leadership contest, a challenger needs the support of 20% of the Parliamentary Labour Party — 81 MPs — and those backers must go public. Unlike the Conservatives, it is not a secret ballot, and the PM automatically gets the right to fight the contest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要触发正式的领导竞选，挑战者需要获得 20% 的议会工党支持——即 81 名议员——并且这些支持者必须公开表态。与保守党不同，这不是秘密投票，首相自动获得参与竞选的权利。</p>
</div><p>The potential candidates are circling: Health Secretary Wes Streeting has so far been reluctant to make the first move; Angela Rayner needs more time to sort out personal matters; and the contender who polls best with the public, Andy Burnham, can't act yet because he's not even an MP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>潜在候选人正在关注：卫生部长韦斯·斯特里廷迄今为止一直不愿意采取第一步；安吉拉·雷纳需要更多时间来处理个人事务；而在公众中民调表现最佳的候选人安迪·伯纳姆目前无法行动，因为他甚至还不是议员。</p>
</div><p>The broader picture is stark — the UK now has at least five major political forces, and the next general election must be held before May 2029. Reform, the Greens, the Lib Dems, and Plaid Cymru are all positioning for gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更广泛的形势严峻——英国现在至少有五个主要政治力量，下一次大选必须在 2029 年 5 月之前举行。改革党、绿党、自民党和威尔士党都在为争取利益而布局。</p>
</div><p>Starmer is digging in. Whether the numbers in Westminster eventually force his hand is the defining political question of the coming weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯塔默正在坚持。威斯敏斯特的数字是否最终迫使他采取行动，是未来几周的关键政治问题。</p>
</div><p>Four ministers have resigned, with three named publicly — <strong>Jess Phillips</strong> (Safeguarding Minister), <strong>Alex Davies-Jones</strong> (Minister), and <strong>Miatta Fahnbulleh</strong> (Junior Minister for Devolution, Faith and Communities) — all citing a lack of confidence in the PM.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四名部长辞职，其中三名公开点名——<strong>杰斯·菲利普斯</strong>（保护部长）、<strong>亚历克斯·戴维斯 - 琼斯</strong>（部长）和 <strong>米亚塔·法恩布勒</strong>（去中心化、信仰与社区事务的初级部长）——均表示对首相缺乏信心。</p>
</div><p>Fahnbulleh said Starmer had &#34;lost the trust and confidence of the public.&#34; Phillips said she was &#34;not seeing the change I think I and the country expect&#34; and could not continue to serve under the current leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法恩布勒表示，斯塔默 “失去了公众的信任和信心”。菲利普斯表示，她 “没有看到我和国家所期待的变化”，无法在当前领导下继续服务。</p>
</div><p>Despite the number of MPs voicing their lack of confidence in the PM passing the 81 threshold, a leadership contest will only be triggered if a candidate puts themselves over the top to challenge Starmer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管表达对首相缺乏信心的议员人数已超过 81 人，只有当某位候选人将自己推向挑战斯塔默的顶端时，领导竞选才会被触发。</p>
</div><p>The full Cabinet itself remains largely intact for now, though clearly divided behind closed doors.On Tuesday, Keir Starmer told his Cabinet that a leadership challenge had not been triggered and he intends to “get on with governing”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>内阁整体目前仍然基本完好，尽管在私下明显分裂。周二，基尔·斯塔默告诉他的内阁，领导挑战尚未被触发，他打算 “继续治理”。</p>
</div><p>*** In more recent headline UK Streeting will hold talks with Starmer tomorrow morning. News</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>*** 在最近的头条新闻中，英国斯特里廷将于明天早上与斯塔默进行会谈。</p>
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The GBPUSD is the biggest mover today.  Sellers taking back some control

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今日英镑兑美元是波动最大的货币对。卖方重新夺回了一些控制权