<p>作者：Naeem Aslam</p>
<p>市场能够应对价格上涨。压垮信心的是不确定性，这会抑制投资。</p>
<p>伊朗战争带来的长期不确定性助长了通货膨胀。</p>
<p>如果伊朗冲突持续，经济后果将远远超出石油生产国或国防承包商。</p>
<p>随着伊朗冲突的发展，油价成为头条新闻。投资者密切关注原油的每一个动态、每一个军事头条和每一个政策制定者的评论，试图评估能源市场是否即将经历另一次重大冲击。</p>
<p>但伊朗战争中最昂贵的部分可能并不是油价（CL.1）（BRN00）本身。</p>
<p>而是那种不确定性。市场可以吸收昂贵的能源；如果这些成本保持稳定和可预测，企业可以适应更高的燃料成本。更具破坏性的是价格剧烈波动、地缘政治风险每小时变化、企业决策者失去对未来的可见性。</p>
<p>这时，战争不再只是商品故事，而是经济故事。</p>
<p>波动性比高价格更危险。</p>
<p>问题不仅仅是成本，而是信心。</p>
<p>油价稳定在每桶 100 美元左右虽然痛苦，但仍可管理：航空公司可以对冲，制造商可以规划，物流公司可以调整合同，投资者可以预测收益。</p>
<p>但在 95 美元和 130 美元之间快速波动的市场则完全是另一个问题。这种波动性冻结了决策。</p>
<p>问题不仅仅是成本——而是信心。当企业无法以任何信心估算能源成本时，它们开始推迟资本支出、减少扩张计划并保留现金。这种行为可能不会立即在头条新闻中显现，但它是长期地缘政治不稳定最昂贵的经济后果之一。</p>
<p>不确定性的首个受害者是规划。</p>
<p>战争是决策的税收。</p>
<p>市场通常关注交易者，但更重要的反应来自董事会。</p>
<p>首席执行官不会根据一个戏剧性的头条做出长期投资决策。当不确定性持续到足以影响规划时，他们才会作出反应。</p>
<p>如果伊朗冲突持续，经济后果将远远超出石油生产国或国防承包商。航空公司面临利润压力；航运公司面临航线中断和保险成本；制造商面临不可预测的原材料价格；消费者企业开始重新评估需求假设。</p>
<p>战争是决策的税收。这种税收很少被直接衡量，但投资者通过收益增长放缓、商业信心减弱和投资活动延迟感受到其后果。</p>
<p>市场关心的是持续时间，而不仅仅是升级。</p>
<p>单一的地缘政治冲击可以被吸收。市场所挣扎的是持续时间。</p>
<p>当前冲突中的关键变化不仅仅是升级本身——而是紧张局势持续升高的可能性。这改变了经济方程式。</p>
<p>商品价格的短期飙升会造成波动。长期的不稳定开始改变整个经济的行为。投资者往往低估这种转变，因为第一阶段感觉可交易。第二阶段则变得结构性。</p>
<p>隐藏的通货膨胀风险并不是立刻显现的——而是累积的。</p>
<p>大多数投资者理解战争会推高油价。但较少关注的是，长期的不确定性如何间接助长通货膨胀。</p>
<p>燃料成本影响运输；运输影响物流；物流影响零售定价。包装、塑料和制造成本都对持续的能源压力作出反应。</p>
<p>通货膨胀的影响在第一周并不总是戏剧性的——它是逐步累积的。这为已经对通货膨胀预期、中央银行信誉和经济增长放缓敏感的市场创造了困难的背景。</p>
<p>投资者应关注信心，而不仅仅是原油价格。</p>
<p>如果不确定性持续，价格波动仍然剧烈，经济损害将加剧。</p>
<p>从现在开始，关键指标不是油价是否再涨 5 美元或 10 美元，而是波动性是收缩还是扩张。</p>
<p>如果市场稳定，企业可以适应。如果不确定性持续，价格波动仍然剧烈，即使没有明显的供应冲击，经济损害也会加剧。战争最昂贵的后果往往不是能源价格本身，而是企业、投资者和消费者无法自信地定价未来。</p>
<p>这就是投资者应关注的区别。</p>
<p>Naeem Aslam 是伦敦 Zaye Capital Markets 的首席投资官。</p>
<p>更多：油价图表呈现出 36 年来未见的模式。上次发生了什么？</p>
<p>另请阅读：美国的财政清算日益临近。</p>
<p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和华尔街日报独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>05-12-26 1516ET</p>

英国石油

和顺石油

西方石油

<p>正在进行的伊朗冲突正在给市场带来重大不确定性，这种影响比油价上涨更具破坏性。虽然油价可以进行管理，但价格的剧烈波动会妨碍商业规划和投资决策。长期的地缘政治不稳定会导致资本支出的延迟和商业信心的下降，影响到超出石油生产者的各个行业。投资者应关注市场波动及其对经济行为的影响，而不仅仅是原油价格，因为由于持续的能源压力，累积的通胀风险会随着时间的推移而增加</p>

<p>By Naeem Aslam</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Naeem Aslam</p>
</div><p>Markets can handle rising prices. What crushes confidence is uncertainty that squelches investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场能够应对价格上涨。压垮信心的是不确定性，这会抑制投资。</p>
</div><p>Prolonged uncertainty from the Iran war feeds inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争带来的长期不确定性助长了通货膨胀。</p>
</div><p>If the Iran conflict remains prolonged, the economic consequences extend well beyond oil producers or defense contractors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果伊朗冲突持续，经济后果将远远超出石油生产国或国防承包商。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices dominate the headlines as the Iran conflict unfolds. Investors watch every move in crude, every military headline and every comment from policymakers, trying to assess whether energy markets are about to experience another major shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着伊朗冲突的发展，油价成为头条新闻。投资者密切关注原油的每一个动态、每一个军事头条和每一个政策制定者的评论，试图评估能源市场是否即将经历另一次重大冲击。</p>
</div><p>But the most expensive part of the Iran war may not be the oil prices (CL.1) (BRN00) themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但伊朗战争中最昂贵的部分可能并不是油价（CL.1）（BRN00）本身。</p>
</div><p>It may be uncertainty. Markets can absorb expensive energy; businesses can adapt to higher fuel costs if those costs remain stable and predictable. What becomes far more damaging is an environment in which prices swing violently, geopolitical risks shift by the hour and corporate decision-makers lose visibility over what comes next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而是那种不确定性。市场可以吸收昂贵的能源；如果这些成本保持稳定和可预测，企业可以适应更高的燃料成本。更具破坏性的是价格剧烈波动、地缘政治风险每小时变化、企业决策者失去对未来的可见性。</p>
</div><p>That is when the war stops being a commodity story and becomes an economic one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这时，战争不再只是商品故事，而是经济故事。</p>
</div><p>Volatility is more dangerous than high prices</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波动性比高价格更危险。</p>
</div><p>The issue is not simply cost. It is confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题不仅仅是成本，而是信心。</p>
</div><p>Oil stabilizing around $100 a barrel is painful but manageable: Airlines can hedge, manufacturers can plan, logistics firms can adjust contracts and investors can model earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价稳定在每桶 100 美元左右虽然痛苦，但仍可管理：航空公司可以对冲，制造商可以规划，物流公司可以调整合同，投资者可以预测收益。</p>
</div><p>But a market that swings rapidly between $95 and $130 creates a different problem entirely. That kind of volatility freezes decision-making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 95 美元和 130 美元之间快速波动的市场则完全是另一个问题。这种波动性冻结了决策。</p>
</div><p>The issue is not simply cost - it is confidence. When businesses cannot estimate energy costs with any conviction, they begin delaying capital spending, reducing expansion plans and preserving cash. That behavior may not appear immediately in headlines, but it is one of the most expensive economic consequences of prolonged geopolitical instability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题不仅仅是成本——而是信心。当企业无法以任何信心估算能源成本时，它们开始推迟资本支出、减少扩张计划并保留现金。这种行为可能不会立即在头条新闻中显现，但它是长期地缘政治不稳定最昂贵的经济后果之一。</p>
</div><p>The first casualty of uncertainty is planning</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不确定性的首个受害者是规划。</p>
</div><p>War is a tax on decision-making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>战争是决策的税收。</p>
</div><p>The market often focuses on traders, but the more important reaction comes from boardrooms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场通常关注交易者，但更重要的反应来自董事会。</p>
</div><p>Chief executives do not make long-term investment decisions based on one dramatic headline. They react when uncertainty becomes persistent enough to impair planning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官不会根据一个戏剧性的头条做出长期投资决策。当不确定性持续到足以影响规划时，他们才会作出反应。</p>
</div><p>If the Iran conflict remains prolonged, the economic consequences extend well beyond oil producers or defense contractors. Airlines face margin pressure; shipping companies deal with route disruptions and insurance costs; manufacturers confront unpredictable input prices; and consumer businesses begin reassessing demand assumptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果伊朗冲突持续，经济后果将远远超出石油生产国或国防承包商。航空公司面临利润压力；航运公司面临航线中断和保险成本；制造商面临不可预测的原材料价格；消费者企业开始重新评估需求假设。</p>
</div><p>War is a tax on decision-making. That tax is rarely measured directly, but investors feel its consequences through slower earnings growth, weaker business confidence and delayed investment activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>战争是决策的税收。这种税收很少被直接衡量，但投资者通过收益增长放缓、商业信心减弱和投资活动延迟感受到其后果。</p>
</div><p>Markets care about duration, not just escalation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场关心的是持续时间，而不仅仅是升级。</p>
</div><p>A single geopolitical shock can be absorbed. What markets struggle with is duration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>单一的地缘政治冲击可以被吸收。市场所挣扎的是持续时间。</p>
</div><p>The key shift in the current conflict is not simply the escalation itself - it is the growing possibility that tensions remain elevated. This changes the economic equation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前冲突中的关键变化不仅仅是升级本身——而是紧张局势持续升高的可能性。这改变了经济方程式。</p>
</div><p>Short-term spikes in commodity prices create volatility. Prolonged instability begins altering behavior across the economy. Investors often underestimate that transition, because the first stage feels tradable. The second stage becomes structural.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品价格的短期飙升会造成波动。长期的不稳定开始改变整个经济的行为。投资者往往低估这种转变，因为第一阶段感觉可交易。第二阶段则变得结构性。</p>
</div><p>The hidden inflation risk isn't immediate - it's cumulative</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隐藏的通货膨胀风险并不是立刻显现的——而是累积的。</p>
</div><p>Most investors understand that war can push oil prices higher. What receives less attention is how prolonged uncertainty feeds inflation indirectly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数投资者理解战争会推高油价。但较少关注的是，长期的不确定性如何间接助长通货膨胀。</p>
</div><p>Fuel costs affect transport; transport affects logistics; and logistics affect retail pricing. Packaging, plastics and manufacturing costs all respond to sustained energy pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>燃料成本影响运输；运输影响物流；物流影响零售定价。包装、塑料和制造成本都对持续的能源压力作出反应。</p>
</div><p>The inflation effect is not always dramatic in week one - it builds. That creates a difficult backdrop for markets already sensitive to inflation expectations, central-bank credibility and slowing growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通货膨胀的影响在第一周并不总是戏剧性的——它是逐步累积的。这为已经对通货膨胀预期、中央银行信誉和经济增长放缓敏感的市场创造了困难的背景。</p>
</div><p>Investors should watch confidence, not just crude prices</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应关注信心，而不仅仅是原油价格。</p>
</div><p>If uncertainty persists and price swings remain violent, the economic damage compounds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果不确定性持续，价格波动仍然剧烈，经济损害将加剧。</p>
</div><p>The critical indicator from here is not whether oil rises another $5 or $10 a barrel. It is whether volatility compresses or expands.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从现在开始，关键指标不是油价是否再涨 5 美元或 10 美元，而是波动性是收缩还是扩张。</p>
</div><p>If markets stabilize, businesses can adapt. If uncertainty persists and price swings remain violent, the economic damage compounds even without an outright supply shock. The most expensive consequence of war is often not the price of energy itself; it is the inability of businesses, investors and consumers to confidently price what comes next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果市场稳定，企业可以适应。如果不确定性持续，价格波动仍然剧烈，即使没有明显的供应冲击，经济损害也会加剧。战争最昂贵的后果往往不是能源价格本身，而是企业、投资者和消费者无法自信地定价未来。</p>
</div><p>That is the distinction investors should focus on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是投资者应关注的区别。</p>
</div><p>Naeem Aslam is chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets in London.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Naeem Aslam 是伦敦 Zaye Capital Markets 的首席投资官。</p>
</div><p>More: Oil price charts produced a pattern not seen in 36 years. What happened last time?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：油价图表呈现出 36 年来未见的模式。上次发生了什么？</p>
</div><p>Also read: America's day of fiscal reckoning draws closer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：美国的财政清算日益临近。</p>
</div><p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Naeem Aslam</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和华尔街日报独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>05-12-26 1516ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-12-26 1516ET</p>
</div>

The Iran war flashpoint isn't oil prices - it's not knowing what comes next

Dow Jones

F三星原油期

美国石油设备与服务 ETF - iShares

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

能源业 ETF - SPDR

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

美国布伦特原油期货基金

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

伊朗战争的关键问题不在于油价，而在于无法预知接下来会发生什么