<p>作者：Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>铜精炼现在面临霍尔木兹海峡的问题</p>
<p>周二，Comex 上的铜期货以每磅 6.53 美元的历史最高价收盘。</p>
<p>现在一磅铜的价格比以往任何时候都要高，而这个故事的背后不仅仅是人工智能的竞争。</p>
<p>硫酸是铜精炼的关键成分，最近由于伊朗战争和霍尔木兹海峡的运输中断，供应短缺。中国也对这种化学品的出口施加了限制，这两个因素可能导致铜的生产成本上升。</p>
<p>RJO Futures 的高级市场策略师 John Caruso 表示：“铜价飙升至历史最高水平是结构性供应问题的完美风暴的一个例子。” 他指出，铜矿石提取浓度的下降和波斯湾的供应瓶颈也与因人工智能扩张而推动的创纪录需求 “正面碰撞”。</p>
<p>周二，铜价（HG00）以历史最高价收盘，最活跃的七月期货合约（HGN26）在 Comex 上以每磅 6.53 美元成交。根据道琼斯市场数据，自伊朗战争开始以来，该金属上涨了 7.8%，年初至今交易价格约高出 15%。</p>
<p>许多铜精炼的路径都通向波斯湾。硫是生产硫酸的副产品，油气丰富的国家如伊朗、科威特、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋去年生产了全球近四分之一的硫，来自美国国会研究服务处的报告显示。</p>
<p>硫的价格最近也攀升至历史高位，摩赛克公司（Mosaic Company，MOS）报告称，其生产硫酸以制造磷酸盐肥料的价格在周一发布的第一季度业绩中超过每公吨 1,200 美元。当被问及是否有进一步评论时，摩赛克公司指向其第一季度的财报和网络广播。</p>
<p>根据国会研究服务处的报告，除了硫，全球约一半的海运硫酸供应也来自中东。这种化学品在铜的浸出过程中至关重要，该过程涉及从铜矿石中提取金属。</p>
<p>伊朗战争和霍尔木兹海峡对油轮交通的有效封闭已经持续的时间超过了许多人的预期。这引发了关于从中东运输硫酸的替代路线的问题，Marex 的分析师 Edward Meir 表示。鉴于这种化学品的酸性和腐蚀性特质，装载到卡车上将会很困难，他指出。</p>
<p>根据《华尔街日报》，中国在 5 月份开始限制硫酸的出口，这加剧了供应方面的问题。Freeport-McMoRan（FCX）是一家铜和其他金属的矿业公司，据报道推迟了其在印度尼西亚的 Grasberg 矿的重启，预计到 2028 年初才能恢复，Meir 表示。当这些报告在上周末出现时，助推了铜价的上涨，他补充道。</p>
<p>Global X Copper Miners 交易所交易基金 COPX 的股票周二连续第三个交易日上涨，交易上涨 1.2%，报 88.57 美元，而追踪铜期货表现的美国铜指数基金 CPER 也连续第三天上涨，周二上涨 1.5%，报 39.98 美元。</p>
<p>Freeport 尚未立即回应关于其 Grasberg 矿重启计划的评论请求，但路透社周一报道，该公司对延迟的报道表示异议，并仍然预计该矿将在 2027 年底前恢复全面生产。</p>
<p>然而，铜市场的上涨不仅仅是由于供应限制的加剧，还受到 “耐久需求增长碰撞” 的推动，Sprott 资产管理公司的 ETF 产品管理总监 Jacob White 表示。</p>
<p>人工智能显然是这一需求故事的一部分，特别是通过数据中心和支持它们的电力基础设施，White 告诉 MarketWatch。这种需求对价格上涨的抵抗力更强，也不太可能因成本上升而下降，他表示。</p>
<p>阅读存档故事：为什么投资者应该开始将铜视为贵金属</p>
<p>即使在供应中断之前，矿石品位的下降导致铜的产量减少，已成为一个日益严重的问题，White 表示。铜还面临着较长的发展周期和新矿项目的限制。</p>
<p>金属的高价格可以帮助提高生产并最终增加供应，同时也会减少需求。但供应受到 “地质、许可和基础设施现实” 的限制，这些现实在短期内无法解决，White 指出。</p>
<p>市场 “越来越发出信号，表明满足未来铜需求可能不仅需要更高的价格，还需要协调政策行动以支持更快的项目开发和供应韧性，” 他说。</p>
<p>展望未来，White 补充道，铜可能不需要新的需求惊喜就能推动价格上涨，因为它在促进经济增长方面已证明了其重要性和价值。这种环境在 2026 年前仍然对铜价和铜矿股保持支持。</p>
<p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>05-12-26 1743ET</p>

江西铜业

自由港迈克墨伦铜金矿

必和必拓

<p>铜价已达到每磅 6.53 美元的历史高位，主要受到供应方面问题的推动，包括伊朗战争和中国硫酸出口限制。成本上升归因于铜矿石品位下降和波斯湾的生产瓶颈。对铜的需求也受到人工智能扩张的推动，尤其是在数据中心方面。分析师建议，满足未来铜需求将需要更高的价格和协调的政策行动</p>

<p>By Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>Copper refining now has a Strait of Hormuz problem</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜精炼现在面临霍尔木兹海峡的问题</p>
</div><p>Copper futures on Comex settled at a record high of $6.53 a pound on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，Comex 上的铜期货以每磅 6.53 美元的历史最高价收盘。</p>
</div><p>A pound of copper now costs more than ever before - and there's more to the story than just the artificial-intelligence race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在一磅铜的价格比以往任何时候都要高，而这个故事的背后不仅仅是人工智能的竞争。</p>
</div><p>Sulfuric acid, a critical component in copper refining, has been in shorter supply lately because of the Iran war and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. China also has placed restrictions on exports of the chemical - and both of those factors are likely increasing copper's production costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>硫酸是铜精炼的关键成分，最近由于伊朗战争和霍尔木兹海峡的运输中断，供应短缺。中国也对这种化学品的出口施加了限制，这两个因素可能导致铜的生产成本上升。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Copper prices stretching to all-time highs is an example of a perfect storm of structural supply-side issues,&#34; said John Caruso, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. He said declines in the concentration of copper extracted from rock and supply bottlenecks in the Persian Gulf also have been &#34;colliding head on&#34; with record levels of demand fueled by AI expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RJO Futures 的高级市场策略师 John Caruso 表示：“铜价飙升至历史最高水平是结构性供应问题的完美风暴的一个例子。” 他指出，铜矿石提取浓度的下降和波斯湾的供应瓶颈也与因人工智能扩张而推动的创纪录需求 “正面碰撞”。</p>
</div><p>Copper prices (HG00) settled at a record high on Tuesday, with the most actively traded July futures contract (HGN26) at $6.53 a pound on Comex. The metal has gained 7.8% since the start of the Iran war, according to Dow Jones Market Data, and is trading about 15% higher year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，铜价（HG00）以历史最高价收盘，最活跃的七月期货合约（HGN26）在 Comex 上以每磅 6.53 美元成交。根据道琼斯市场数据，自伊朗战争开始以来，该金属上涨了 7.8%，年初至今交易价格约高出 15%。</p>
</div><p>Many of the paths to refining copper lead back to the Persian Gulf. Sulfur, which is used to produce sulfuric acid, is a byproduct of the oil-refining process. Oil-rich countries such as Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. produced almost a quarter of the world's supply of sulfur last year, according to a report from the Congressional Research Service, the U.S. Congress's think tank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多铜精炼的路径都通向波斯湾。硫是生产硫酸的副产品，油气丰富的国家如伊朗、科威特、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋去年生产了全球近四分之一的硫，来自美国国会研究服务处的报告显示。</p>
</div><p>Prices for sulfur also recently climbed to record highs - with the Mosaic Company (MOS), which produces sulfuric acid to make phosphate-based fertilizer, reporting prices of more than $1,200 per metric ton in its first-quarter results released Monday. When asked if it had further comment, Mosaic referred back to its first-quarter earnings results and webcast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>硫的价格最近也攀升至历史高位，摩赛克公司（Mosaic Company，MOS）报告称，其生产硫酸以制造磷酸盐肥料的价格在周一发布的第一季度业绩中超过每公吨 1,200 美元。当被问及是否有进一步评论时，摩赛克公司指向其第一季度的财报和网络广播。</p>
</div><p>In addition to sulfur, roughly half of the world's seaborne supply of sulfuric acid also comes from the Middle East, according to the report from the Congressional Research Service. The chemical is essential in the leaching process of copper, which involves extracting the metal from copper ore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据国会研究服务处的报告，除了硫，全球约一半的海运硫酸供应也来自中东。这种化学品在铜的浸出过程中至关重要，该过程涉及从铜矿石中提取金属。</p>
</div><p>The Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic already has lasted longer than many expected. That's raising questions about alternative routes to get sulfuric acid out of the Middle East, said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex. Given the chemical's acidic and corrosive qualities, it would be difficult to load it onto a truck, he noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争和霍尔木兹海峡对油轮交通的有效封闭已经持续的时间超过了许多人的预期。这引发了关于从中东运输硫酸的替代路线的问题，Marex 的分析师 Edward Meir 表示。鉴于这种化学品的酸性和腐蚀性特质，装载到卡车上将会很困难，他指出。</p>
</div><p>Contributing to supply-side issues, China started restricting its exports of sulfuric acid in May, according to the Wall Street Journal. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), which mines copper and other metals, reportedly postponed a restart of its Grasberg mine in Indonesia to early 2028, Meir said. When those reports emerged late last week, they contributed to the rise in copper prices, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据《华尔街日报》，中国在 5 月份开始限制硫酸的出口，这加剧了供应方面的问题。Freeport-McMoRan（FCX）是一家铜和其他金属的矿业公司，据报道推迟了其在印度尼西亚的 Grasberg 矿的重启，预计到 2028 年初才能恢复，Meir 表示。当这些报告在上周末出现时，助推了铜价的上涨，他补充道。</p>
</div><p>Shares of the Global X Copper Miners exchange-traded fund COPX were up for a third session in a row Tuesday, trading up 1.2% at $88.57, while the United States Copper Index Fund CPER, which tracks copper futures' performance, was also up a third straight day, climbing 1.5% to $39.98 in Tuesday dealings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Global X Copper Miners 交易所交易基金 COPX 的股票周二连续第三个交易日上涨，交易上涨 1.2%，报 88.57 美元，而追踪铜期货表现的美国铜指数基金 CPER 也连续第三天上涨，周二上涨 1.5%，报 39.98 美元。</p>
</div><p>Freeport didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on its plans for the Grasberg mine's restart, but Reuters reported Monday that the company disputed the reports of delays and still expects the mine to resume full production by the end of 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Freeport 尚未立即回应关于其 Grasberg 矿重启计划的评论请求，但路透社周一报道，该公司对延迟的报道表示异议，并仍然预计该矿将在 2027 年底前恢复全面生产。</p>
</div><p>The rally in the copper market, however, isn't just about escalating supply constraints - it's also being driven by the &#34;collision of durable demand growth,&#34; said Jacob White, director of ETF product management at Sprott Asset Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，铜市场的上涨不仅仅是由于供应限制的加剧，还受到 “耐久需求增长碰撞” 的推动，Sprott 资产管理公司的 ETF 产品管理总监 Jacob White 表示。</p>
</div><p>AI is clearly part of that demand story, particularly through data centers and the power infrastructure that support them, White told MarketWatch. That's the type of demand that is more resistant to a rise in prices, and less likely to decline because of higher costs, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能显然是这一需求故事的一部分，特别是通过数据中心和支持它们的电力基础设施，White 告诉 MarketWatch。这种需求对价格上涨的抵抗力更强，也不太可能因成本上升而下降，他表示。</p>
</div><p>Read archived story: Why it's time for investors to start treating copper like a precious metal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读存档故事：为什么投资者应该开始将铜视为贵金属</p>
</div><p>Even before the supply disruptions, a decline in the grades of ore available, which results in less copper yielded, has been a growing issue, White said. Copper has also faced long development timelines and limits to new mining projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在供应中断之前，矿石品位的下降导致铜的产量减少，已成为一个日益严重的问题，White 表示。铜还面临着较长的发展周期和新矿项目的限制。</p>
</div><p>High prices for the metal can help boost production and eventually supply, and reduce demand too. But supply has been constrained by &#34;geology, permitting and infrastructure realities&#34; - realities that cannot be resolved in the short term, noted White.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金属的高价格可以帮助提高生产并最终增加供应，同时也会减少需求。但供应受到 “地质、许可和基础设施现实” 的限制，这些现实在短期内无法解决，White 指出。</p>
</div><p>The market is &#34;increasingly signaling that meeting future copper demand will likely require not only higher prices, but coordinated policy action to support faster project development and supply resilience,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场 “越来越发出信号，表明满足未来铜需求可能不仅需要更高的价格，还需要协调政策行动以支持更快的项目开发和供应韧性，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, copper likely won't require a new demand surprise to get prices to move higher, White added, as it's proven its significance and value when it comes to contributing to economic growth. That's an environment that remains supportive for copper prices and copper-mining equities through 2026, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，White 补充道，铜可能不需要新的需求惊喜就能推动价格上涨，因为它在促进经济增长方面已证明了其重要性和价值。这种环境在 2026 年前仍然对铜价和铜矿股保持支持。</p>
</div><p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>05-12-26 1743ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-12-26 1743ET</p>
</div>

Copper prices are now at their highest level on record. AI is only part of the story.

Dow Jones

南方铜业

Hudbay Minerals

泰克资源

ERO Copper

Sprott Copper Miners ETF

Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF

铜矿 ETF - GlobalX

iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF

美国铜指数基金 - Concierge Technologies

美盛

Marex

Sprott

铜价目前已达到历史最高水平。人工智能只是其中的一个因素