<p>招商证券（香港）(CMSI) 发布报告称，五一假期后的渠道检查显示，海底捞（06862.HK）+0.050 (+0.331%) 空头头寸为 8152 万美元；比例为 111.762%。在同店基础上实现了强劲反弹，平均桌面周转率录得中单位数的改善。这主要得益于顾客流量的高单位数增长，抵消了由于促销折扣导致的顾客平均消费的低单位数下降。与第一季度的疲软表现相比（该券商预计收入同比下降低单位数），假期数据显示出明显的环比改善，并延续了四月份的高单位数收入恢复趋势。展望未来，CMSI 预计这种势头将延续到传统的夏季旺季，并推动上半年收入增长至同比低至中单位数的范围。然而，这一增长轨迹仍低于市场更乐观的预期，后者普遍预测全年增长为双位数。</p>
<p>关于利润率，CMSI 指出海底捞正在积极应对近期的成本压力，特别是牛肉等原材料成本的上涨，这正在挤压毛利率。此外，运营利润率的扩张可能受到重组成本和外卖业务更高贡献的拖累。在创始人回归后，公司正经历转型阶段，并推出了一系列战略举措，包括 “一店一策” 的门店改造计划、子品牌优化（如目前亏损的 “燕青烧烤”）以及向低层市场的特许经营扩展。这些结构性调整，加上低毛利外卖业务的快速扩张（该业务在 2025 年规模翻倍，但门店级别的毛利率仅为 3% 至 4%），可能在短期内稀释整体盈利能力。综合考虑收入和利润率趋势，CMSI 认为公司的短期恢复仍受到转型相关痛苦的制约。</p>
<p>CMSI 将 2026/27 年的收入增长预测上调了约 2.5%，以反映自年初以来线下流量的改善。将 EBITDA 预测下调了约 9%，以考虑输入成本通胀和重组费用可能带来的成本压力。今年和明年的净利润预测平均下调了 7%。尽管海底捞提供超过 5% 的吸引人股息收益率，提供了一定的下行保护，CMSI 仍维持中性评级。目标价略微上调，从 15.3 港元提高至 16 港元。（da/u）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026 年 5 月 12 日 16:25。）</p>

海底捞

<p>中国招商证券（香港）（CMSI）已将海底捞的目标价从 15.3 港元上调至 16 港元，维持中性评级。近期的渠道调查显示，尽管人均消费下降，但由于顾客流量增加，同店销售强劲反弹。CMSI 预计上半年收入将实现低至中个位数的增长，但这低于市场对双位数增长的预期。公司面临成本压力和转型挑战，导致其对今年和明年的 EBITDA 预测下调 9%，净利润预测下调 7%。海底捞的股息收益率超过 5%</p>

<p>China Merchants Securities (HK) (CMSI) issued a report stating that its post-Labour Day channel checks indicate HAIDILAO (06862.HK) +0.050 (+0.331%)  Short selling $81.52M; Ratio 111.762%  achieved a strong rebound on a same-store basis, with average table turnover rate recording a mid-teens improvement. This was mainly driven by a high-teens increase in customer traffic, offsetting a low single-digit decline in average spending per customer due to promotional discounts. Compared with the weak performance in 1Q (the broker expects revenue to decline by a low single-digit YoY), holiday data showed clear QoQ improvement and continued the high single-digit revenue recovery trend seen in April. Looking ahead, CMSI expects the momentum to extend into the traditional summer peak season and drive 1H revenue growth to the low-to-mid single-digit YoY range. However, this growth trajectory still falls short of more optimistic market expectations, which generally forecast double-digit full-year growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>招商证券（香港）(CMSI) 发布报告称，五一假期后的渠道检查显示，海底捞（06862.HK）+0.050 (+0.331%) 空头头寸为 8152 万美元；比例为 111.762%。在同店基础上实现了强劲反弹，平均桌面周转率录得中单位数的改善。这主要得益于顾客流量的高单位数增长，抵消了由于促销折扣导致的顾客平均消费的低单位数下降。与第一季度的疲软表现相比（该券商预计收入同比下降低单位数），假期数据显示出明显的环比改善，并延续了四月份的高单位数收入恢复趋势。展望未来，CMSI 预计这种势头将延续到传统的夏季旺季，并推动上半年收入增长至同比低至中单位数的范围。然而，这一增长轨迹仍低于市场更乐观的预期，后者普遍预测全年增长为双位数。</p>
</div><p>On margins, CMSI noted that HAIDILAO is actively addressing near-term cost pressures, particularly rising raw material costs such as beef, which are squeezing gross margin. In addition, operating margin expansion may be dragged by restructuring costs and a higher contribution from the delivery business. Following the founders return, the company is undergoing a transformation phase and has launched a series of strategic initiatives, including a &#34;one store, one strategy&#34; outlet revamp plan, sub-brand optimization (such as the currently loss-making &#34;Yanqing BBQ&#34;), and franchise expansion into lower-tier markets. These structural adjustments, coupled with the rapid expansion of the low-margin delivery business (which doubled in scale in 2025 but carries a store-level margin of only 3% to 4%), may dilute overall profitability in the short term. Taking both revenue and margin trends into account, CMSI believes the companys near-term recovery remains constrained by transformation-related pains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于利润率，CMSI 指出海底捞正在积极应对近期的成本压力，特别是牛肉等原材料成本的上涨，这正在挤压毛利率。此外，运营利润率的扩张可能受到重组成本和外卖业务更高贡献的拖累。在创始人回归后，公司正经历转型阶段，并推出了一系列战略举措，包括 “一店一策” 的门店改造计划、子品牌优化（如目前亏损的 “燕青烧烤”）以及向低层市场的特许经营扩展。这些结构性调整，加上低毛利外卖业务的快速扩张（该业务在 2025 年规模翻倍，但门店级别的毛利率仅为 3% 至 4%），可能在短期内稀释整体盈利能力。综合考虑收入和利润率趋势，CMSI 认为公司的短期恢复仍受到转型相关痛苦的制约。</p>
</div><p>CMSI raised its revenue growth forecasts for 2026/27 by an average of about 2.5% to reflect the improvement in offline traffic since the beginning of the year. It lowered its EBITDA forecasts by an average of about 9% to factor in potential cost pressures from input cost inflation and restructuring expenses. Net profit forecasts for this year and next were cut by an average of 7%. Despite HAIDILAO offering an attractive dividend yield of over 5%, providing some downside cushion, CMSI maintained its Neutral rating. The TP was slightly raised from HKD15.3 to HKD16. (da/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-12 16:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CMSI 将 2026/27 年的收入增长预测上调了约 2.5%，以反映自年初以来线下流量的改善。将 EBITDA 预测下调了约 9%，以考虑输入成本通胀和重组费用可能带来的成本压力。今年和明年的净利润预测平均下调了 7%。尽管海底捞提供超过 5% 的吸引人股息收益率，提供了一定的下行保护，CMSI 仍维持中性评级。目标价略微上调，从 15.3 港元提高至 16 港元。（da/u）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026 年 5 月 12 日 16:25。）</p>
</div>

CMSI 将海底捞的目标价格上调至 16 港元，并维持中性评级