<p>摩根士丹利发布报告，将今年和明年的中国经济增长预测分别上调 0.1 个百分点至 4.8% 和 4.7%，这得益于强劲的出口、人工智能和绿色资本支出。由于强劲的出口减少了刺激措施的紧迫性，该行已撤回对 2026 年下半年推出财政刺激和货币宽松的预测。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利还将反映通胀的 GDP 平减指数预测上调 0.3 个百分点至 0.5%。然而，该行认为再通胀的空间有限，因为劳动力市场依然疲软，房地产市场仍处于调整阶段，消费保持低迷。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利表示，如果中国的出口继续表现强劲，中国人民银行可能会允许人民币适度升值，将人民币对美元的年末目标从 7 上调至 6.75。如果经济增长超出预期，避险情绪减弱，导致美元走弱，人民币可能在短期内升值至 6.7，然后在明年中期回落至约 6.8。然而，中国人民银行仍然担心国内价格疲软，不太可能依赖人民币升值来解决经济增长失衡的问题。 (mn/da)</p>

A惠理人民币

A博时人民币

A博时人民币-R

A华夏人民币

<p>摩根士丹利已将 2023 年中国经济增长预测上调至 4.8%，2024 年预测上调至 4.7%，理由是强劲的出口和对人工智能及绿色资本的投资。该银行已撤回对财政刺激和货币宽松的预测，原因是出口表现强劲。它还将 GDP 平减指数的预测调整为 0.5%。摩根士丹利预计人民币对美元将适度升值，将年末目标调整为 6.75，可能会根据经济表现和美元强度出现波动</p>

<p>M Stanley released a report raising its China Econ growth forecasts for this year and next by 0.1 ppts to 4.8% and 4.7%, respectively, supported by strong exports, artificial intelligence and green capital expenditure. As robust exports have reduced the urgency for stimulus measures, the bank has withdrawn its forecasts for fiscal stimulus and monetary easing to be launched in 2H26.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利发布报告，将今年和明年的中国经济增长预测分别上调 0.1 个百分点至 4.8% 和 4.7%，这得益于强劲的出口、人工智能和绿色资本支出。由于强劲的出口减少了刺激措施的紧迫性，该行已撤回对 2026 年下半年推出财政刺激和货币宽松的预测。</p>
</div><p>M Stanley also lifted its forecast for the GDP deflator, which reflects inflation, by 0.3 ppts to 0.5%. However, it believes the scope for reflation is limited, as the labor market remains weak and the property market is still in an adjustment phase, leaving consumption subdued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利还将反映通胀的 GDP 平减指数预测上调 0.3 个百分点至 0.5%。然而，该行认为再通胀的空间有限，因为劳动力市场依然疲软，房地产市场仍处于调整阶段，消费保持低迷。</p>
</div><p>M Stanley said that if Chinas exports continue to perform strongly, the Peoples Bank of China may allow the RMB to appreciate modestly, raising its year-end target for the RMB against the USD from 7 to 6.75. If economic growth exceeds expectations and safe-haven sentiment fades, leading to a weaker USD, the RMB may strengthen to 6.7 in the near term before edging down to around 6.8 by mid next year. Nevertheless, the Peoples Bank of China remains concerned about weak domestic prices and is unlikely to rely on RMB appreciation to address economic growth imbalances. (mn/da)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利表示，如果中国的出口继续表现强劲，中国人民银行可能会允许人民币适度升值，将人民币对美元的年末目标从 7 上调至 6.75。如果经济增长超出预期，避险情绪减弱，导致美元走弱，人民币可能在短期内升值至 6.7，然后在明年中期回落至约 6.8。然而，中国人民银行仍然担心国内价格疲软，不太可能依赖人民币升值来解决经济增长失衡的问题。 (mn/da)</p>
</div>

M Stanley Raises China Econ Growth Forecast to 4.8% This Year, Sees RMB at 6.75 vs USD by Year-end

AASTOCKS News

摩根士丹利

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

摩根士丹利将今年中国经济增长预测上调至 4.8%，预计年底人民币兑美元汇率为 6.75