<p>大和发布了一份研究报告，指出自四月以来，中国房地产板块股票从低谷反弹超过 20%，主要是由于对一线城市（尤其是上海）已触底的说法。然而，该券商并不相信这种复苏代表着结构性转变，因为开发商和购房者目前都缺乏信心。</p>
<p>该券商解释称，四月份的房地产销售超出预期，尤其是在传统的淡季。新房和二手房销售同比分别增长 2.4% 和 5.0%。复苏在一线城市尤为明显，那里新房和二手房销售同比激增 20% 和 14%，强劲的势头延续到了劳动节假期。同时，二手房价格也显示出稳定的迹象。然而，大和指出，二手市场的改善主要是由老旧、小户型和低价高租金的次标准公寓推动的。售价超过 500 万人民币的商品房销售仍远未复苏，同比下降 25%。此外，开发商迅速抓住了改善的市场情绪，四月份上海的新房预售许可证同比激增 70.8%。然而，少数项目已撤回折扣，这表明开发商和买家之间缺乏信心，这是结构性和可持续复苏的前提。</p>
<p>大和认为，如果一线城市的销售势头持续，板块股价在短期至中期内可能进一步上涨，尽管修正风险是真实存在的。该券商更倾向于真正接触一线城市的国有开发商，而非私营开发商，因为后者在势头减弱时将面临降级风险。其首选股票为华润置地（01109.HK）+0.040 (+0.105%) 空头头寸 7161 万美元；比例 28.165% 和中国海外发展（00688.HK）+0.230 (+1.438%) 空头头寸 4495 万美元；比例 24.408%，均评级为买入。（ad/u）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026-05-13 12:25。）</p>

华润置地

中国海外发展

<p>大和的研究报告指出，尽管中国房地产板块股票自四月以来反弹超过 20%，但由于开发商和购房者信心持续不足，这一复苏并不被视为结构性。房地产销售超出预期，尤其是在一线城市，但高端住宅销售同比下降 25%。大和看好国有开发商，如华润置地和中国海外发展，均被评级为买入，因为它们在当前市场中处于更有利的位置。报告警告尽管短期内价格上涨，但仍存在潜在的修正风险</p>

<p>Daiwa published a research report stating that since April, CN Home sector stocks have rebounded by more than 20% from their trough, mainly driven by claims that Tier-1 cities (especially Shanghai) have bottomed out. However, the broker is not convinced that the recovery represents a structural shift, as both developers and homebuyers currently lack confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大和发布了一份研究报告，指出自四月以来，中国房地产板块股票从低谷反弹超过 20%，主要是由于对一线城市（尤其是上海）已触底的说法。然而，该券商并不相信这种复苏代表着结构性转变，因为开发商和购房者目前都缺乏信心。</p>
</div><p>The broker explained that property sales in April beat expectations, particularly during the traditional slack season. Primary and secondary residential sales rose 2.4% YoY and 5.0% YoY, respectively. The recovery was especially evident in Tier-1 cities, where primary and secondary sales surged 20% YoY and 14% YoY, with strong momentum extending into the Labour Day holiday. Meanwhile, secondary home prices have also shown signs of stabilizing. However, Daiwa noted that the improvement in the secondary market was mainly driven by older, small-sized and substandard apartments with low prices and high rental yields. Sales of commodity housing priced above RMB5 million remain far from recovery, falling 25% YoY. In addition, developers swiftly seized the improved market sentiment, with new home pre-sale permits in Shanghai surging 70.8% YoY in April. Yet few projects have withdrawn discounts, indicating a lack of confidence among both developers and buyers a prerequisite for a structural and sustainable recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该券商解释称，四月份的房地产销售超出预期，尤其是在传统的淡季。新房和二手房销售同比分别增长 2.4% 和 5.0%。复苏在一线城市尤为明显，那里新房和二手房销售同比激增 20% 和 14%，强劲的势头延续到了劳动节假期。同时，二手房价格也显示出稳定的迹象。然而，大和指出，二手市场的改善主要是由老旧、小户型和低价高租金的次标准公寓推动的。售价超过 500 万人民币的商品房销售仍远未复苏，同比下降 25%。此外，开发商迅速抓住了改善的市场情绪，四月份上海的新房预售许可证同比激增 70.8%。然而，少数项目已撤回折扣，这表明开发商和买家之间缺乏信心，这是结构性和可持续复苏的前提。</p>
</div><p>Daiwa believes that if the sales momentum in Tier-1 cities continues, sector share prices may rise further in the short to medium term, though correction risks are real. The broker prefers state-owned developers with genuine exposure to Tier-1 cities over private developers, as the latter would face downgrade risks once momentum fades. Its top picks are CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) +0.040 (+0.105%)  Short selling $71.61M; Ratio 28.165%  and CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) +0.230 (+1.438%)  Short selling $44.95M; Ratio 24.408%  , both rated Buy. (ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-13 12:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大和认为，如果一线城市的销售势头持续，板块股价在短期至中期内可能进一步上涨，尽管修正风险是真实存在的。该券商更倾向于真正接触一线城市的国有开发商，而非私营开发商，因为后者在势头减弱时将面临降级风险。其首选股票为华润置地（01109.HK）+0.040 (+0.105%) 空头头寸 7161 万美元；比例 28.165% 和中国海外发展（00688.HK）+0.230 (+1.438%) 空头头寸 4495 万美元；比例 24.408%，均评级为买入。（ad/u）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026-05-13 12:25。）</p>
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大和证券：国内房地产市场尚未全面复苏；首选华润置地和中国海外发展