<p>[北京] 中国的人工智能硬件供应商面临一个问题：无法满足对其产品的旺盛需求。</p>
<p>产能限制和关键组件供应的紧缩威胁着今年早期所见的快速增长，这并不是因为缺乏人工智能的需求。</p>
<p>“我相信这些产能瓶颈在短期内不太可能得到解决，尤其是在 2026 年之前，这意味着公司可能会继续无法满足市场的乐观预期，” 上海诚洲投资管理的董事向晓天表示。</p>
<p>根据国盛证券的报告，光通信制造商已成为投资者青睐的领军者，尽管他们面临严重的 “成长烦恼”，包括全球规模化的复杂性以及技术变革和供应链限制的快速压力。</p>
<p>东南亚国家，如泰国和越南，当前是工厂选址的首选，尽管地缘政治紧张局势持续，但当地劳动力仍然有限。国盛分析师表示，生产线的熟练程度也落后于中国标准。</p>
<h2>供应瓶颈</h2>
<p>为了缓解供应端的摩擦，企业积极进行光电芯片、印刷电路板和被动元件的战略性囤货。</p>
<p>领先的光学制造商中际旭创第一季度的预付款增长超过 10 倍，达到 15 亿元人民币（约合 2.21 亿新元），因为他们提前预定了材料成本。人工智能服务器供应商富士康工业互联网在一次财报电话会议上告诉投资者，他们提前囤积了原材料，以确保 “顺利的大规模生产和交付”。</p>
<p>短缺已经影响到产出。</p>
<p>“由于供应商的生产提升速度，某些材料仍然存在短缺，这对相关产品产生了一定影响，” 苏州 TFC 光通信在四月份的财报电话会议上表示。</p>
<p>同行 Eoptolink 科技预计，从第二季度开始，限制将逐渐缓解，供应链将在下半年稳定。</p>
<p>尽管一些公司交出了强劲的——在某些情况下是创纪录的——第一季度业绩，但其他公司未能达到高昂的分析师预期。不过，股票相对未受影响。这表明市场可能仍未将这些采购风险计入。</p>
<p>“尽管一些第一季度的收益明显未能达到乐观预期，但当天股价并没有大幅下跌，有些甚至小幅上涨，这表明市场在很大程度上忽视了这些担忧，” 向晓天在上海诚洲投资管理表示。</p>
<p>人工智能芯片制造商寒武纪科技和中际旭创的股票因财报显示季度利润激增而上涨。</p>
<p>其他公司，如 Eoptolink 科技，由于外汇损失未能达到预期。富士康工业互联网发布了创纪录的季度利润，但由于服务器发货比例较高，未能达到预期。</p>
<p>印刷电路板制造商胜利巨头科技惠州也未能达到预期，指出其新泰国工厂在达到满产之前，生产线 “破冰” 的时间滞后是不可避免的。</p>
<p>在光学领域，那些能够更快扩大生产的公司将在获取订单方面占据优势，彭博情报分析师 Sean Chen 表示。他补充道，具备更强研发能力的公司将从日益增长的人工智能投资中受益最大。</p>
<p>从长远来看，随着对硬件的强劲需求持续，中国的人工智能基础设施有望继续在更强的利润率上表现优异，汇丰前海的分析师 Neal Chen 在一份报告中写道。</p>
<p>他们表示，技术发展和 DeepSeek-V4 的推出也可能推动国内计算价值链的需求。BLOOMBERG</p>

纳斯达克中国金龙指数

中国 MSCI ETF - iShares

中国龙 ETF - Roundhill

中概股 ETF - PowerShares

<p>中国的人工智能硬件供应商因组件短缺和产能限制而难以满足激增的需求。专家预测这些问题将持续到至少 2026 年，影响公司满足市场预期的能力。尽管一些公司报告了强劲的收益，但其他公司却未能达到预期，然而股价仍然保持稳定。公司正在囤积关键组件以减轻供应链中断的影响。分析师建议，那些能够快速扩大生产的公司将获得竞争优势，而由于强劲的硬件需求，中国人工智能基础设施的长期前景仍然乐观</p>

<p>[BEIJING] China’s artificial intelligence hardware suppliers have a problem: keeping up with insatiable demand for their products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[北京] 中国的人工智能硬件供应商面临一个问题：无法满足对其产品的旺盛需求。</p>
</div><p>Capacity constraints and a tightening supply of critical components threaten to throttle the brisk growth seen early this year, and not for a lack of AI demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>产能限制和关键组件供应的紧缩威胁着今年早期所见的快速增长，这并不是因为缺乏人工智能的需求。</p>
</div><p>“I believe these capacity bottlenecks are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, certainly not within 2026, which means companies may continue to fall short of the market’s optimistic expectations,” said Xiang Xiaotian, director at Shanghai Chengzhou Investment Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我相信这些产能瓶颈在短期内不太可能得到解决，尤其是在 2026 年之前，这意味着公司可能会继续无法满足市场的乐观预期，” 上海诚洲投资管理的董事向晓天表示。</p>
</div><p>Optical communication makers have emerged as investor favourites to lead sector outperformance, even as they face severe “growing pains”, according to a Guosheng Securities note. This includes global scaling complexities and the rapid pressure of technological shifts and supply chain limitations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据国盛证券的报告，光通信制造商已成为投资者青睐的领军者，尽管他们面临严重的 “成长烦恼”，包括全球规模化的复杂性以及技术变革和供应链限制的快速压力。</p>
</div><p>South-east Asian countries, such as Thailand and Vietnam, are currently the top choices for factory locations as geopolitical tensions persist, though there are local workforce constraints. Production line proficiency also lags behind Chinese standards, Guosheng analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>东南亚国家，如泰国和越南，当前是工厂选址的首选，尽管地缘政治紧张局势持续，但当地劳动力仍然有限。国盛分析师表示，生产线的熟练程度也落后于中国标准。</p>
</div><h2>Supply bottlenecks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>供应瓶颈</h2>
</div><p>To mitigate supply-side friction, firms have engaged in aggressive strategic stockpiling of optical and electronic chips, printed circuit boards, and passive components.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了缓解供应端的摩擦，企业积极进行光电芯片、印刷电路板和被动元件的战略性囤货。</p>
</div><p>Leading optics maker Zhongji Innolight saw first-quarter prepayments climb more than 10-times to 1.5 billion yuan (S$221 million) as it booked materials costs in advance. AI server supplier Foxconn Industrial Internet told investors on an earnings call that it stocked up on raw materials in advance to ensure “smooth mass production and delivery”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>领先的光学制造商中际旭创第一季度的预付款增长超过 10 倍，达到 15 亿元人民币（约合 2.21 亿新元），因为他们提前预定了材料成本。人工智能服务器供应商富士康工业互联网在一次财报电话会议上告诉投资者，他们提前囤积了原材料，以确保 “顺利的大规模生产和交付”。</p>
</div><p>The shortages are already impacting output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短缺已经影响到产出。</p>
</div><p>“Due to the pace of production ramp-up by suppliers, there are still some shortages of certain materials, which has had a certain impact on related products,” Suzhou TFC Optical Communication said on an earnings call in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由于供应商的生产提升速度，某些材料仍然存在短缺，这对相关产品产生了一定影响，” 苏州 TFC 光通信在四月份的财报电话会议上表示。</p>
</div><p>Peer Eoptolink Technology expects constraints to ease gradually from the second quarter, with the supply chain stabilising in the second half of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同行 Eoptolink 科技预计，从第二季度开始，限制将逐渐缓解，供应链将在下半年稳定。</p>
</div><p>While some firms delivered robust – and in some cases, record-breaking – first-quarter results, others fell short of lofty analyst estimates. Still, stocks were relatively unscathed. That indicates the market may still not have priced in these procurement risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管一些公司交出了强劲的——在某些情况下是创纪录的——第一季度业绩，但其他公司未能达到高昂的分析师预期。不过，股票相对未受影响。这表明市场可能仍未将这些采购风险计入。</p>
</div><p>“Despite some first-quarter earnings clearly missing optimistic expectations, share prices did not fall much on the day, some even edged higher, suggesting the market is largely overlooking these concerns,” said Xiang at Shanghai Chengzhou Investment Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“尽管一些第一季度的收益明显未能达到乐观预期，但当天股价并没有大幅下跌，有些甚至小幅上涨，这表明市场在很大程度上忽视了这些担忧，” 向晓天在上海诚洲投资管理表示。</p>
</div><p>Shares of AI chipmaker Cambricon Technologies and Zhongji Innolight jumped on the back of earnings reports, which showed quarterly profits surged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能芯片制造商寒武纪科技和中际旭创的股票因财报显示季度利润激增而上涨。</p>
</div><p>Others, such as Eoptolink Technology, missed estimates due to foreign exchange losses. Foxconn Industrial Internet posted a record quarterly profit, though it missed expectations because of a higher proportion of server consignments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他公司，如 Eoptolink 科技，由于外汇损失未能达到预期。富士康工业互联网发布了创纪录的季度利润，但由于服务器发货比例较高，未能达到预期。</p>
</div><p>Printed circuit board manufacturer Victory Giant Technology Huizhou, which also missed estimates, flagged that a time lag for “production line break-ins” is inevitable before its new Thai facility reaches full capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印刷电路板制造商胜利巨头科技惠州也未能达到预期，指出其新泰国工厂在达到满产之前，生产线 “破冰” 的时间滞后是不可避免的。</p>
</div><p>In the optics space, those who can scale production faster will have an advantage in securing orders, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Sean Chen said. Companies with stronger research and development capabilities will benefit the most from rising AI investments, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在光学领域，那些能够更快扩大生产的公司将在获取订单方面占据优势，彭博情报分析师 Sean Chen 表示。他补充道，具备更强研发能力的公司将从日益增长的人工智能投资中受益最大。</p>
</div><p>In the long run, Chinese AI infrastructure is set to continue outperforming on stronger margins as robust demand for hardware continues, HSBC Qianhai analysts led by Neal Chen wrote in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从长远来看，随着对硬件的强劲需求持续，中国的人工智能基础设施有望继续在更强的利润率上表现优异，汇丰前海的分析师 Neal Chen 在一份报告中写道。</p>
</div><p>Technological developments and the launch of DeepSeek-V4 could also boost demand in the domestic computing value chain, they said. BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们表示，技术发展和 DeepSeek-V4 的推出也可能推动国内计算价值链的需求。BLOOMBERG</p>
</div>

由于组件短缺，中国的 AI 供应商难以满足需求