<p><strong>标普 500</strong>（^GSPC 0.16%）在三月份大幅下跌，因为伊朗冲突使得油价首次超过每桶 100 美元。该指数已经恢复了损失，但反弹可能为时已晚。</p>
<p>地缘政治紧张局势仍然高企，能源价格持续上涨，没人知道局势何时会改善。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在最近的新闻发布会上表示：“经济前景仍然高度不确定，中东的冲突加剧了这种不确定性。”</p>
<p>与此同时，美联储官员最近警告称，通胀压力可能导致加息，而标普 500 则发出了自互联网泡沫崩溃以来首次出现的警报。以下是投资者需要了解的当前市场环境。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk1ODIvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UtNS5qcGcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3840" height="2560" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk1ODIvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UtNS5qcGcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在新闻发布会上回答记者提问。图片来源：美联储官方照片。</p>
<h2>美联储表示通胀压力可能导致加息</h2>
<p>美联储的半年一次金融稳定报告识别并评估美国金融系统的风险。最新报告于 2026 年 5 月发布，认为地缘政治紧张局势和高油价是最紧迫的担忧。</p>
<p>美联储理事会警告称：“来自能源冲击的通胀压力可能迫使中央银行收紧货币政策，即使经济增长减弱。” 在当前环境下，这可能特别糟糕，因为股票的估值已经按历史标准来看非常高。</p>
<p>在正常情况下，美联储会降息以刺激疲软的经济。但由于伊朗冲突导致能源价格飙升，通胀在三月份大幅加速，随着油价冲击推动制造和运输成本上升，通胀可能继续攀升。在这种情况下，美联储可能被迫提高基准利率。</p>
<p>这可能以多种方式打击股市。更高的利率将直接通过增加利息支出和间接通过减少消费者需求来损害企业盈利。更高的利率还会使债券更具吸引力，这可能导致投资者抛售股票。</p>
<p>历史背景在这里是有价值的。美联储上一次加息周期始于 2022 年 3 月，标普 500 在接下来的三个月中下跌了 17%。事实上，自 1999 年以来，美联储已经启动了四个加息周期，而标普 500 在接下来的三个月中总是下跌，平均回撤为 7%。</p>
<h2>股市发出自互联网泡沫崩溃以来首次出现的警报</h2>
<p>周期性调整后的市盈率（CAPE）有时被称为希勒市盈率，是用于评估整个股票市场指数的估值指标。截至 5 月初，标普 500 的 CAPE 比率为 39.6。除去过去几个月，该指数自 2000 年 9 月互联网泡沫崩溃以来未曾以如此高的估值交易。</p>
<p>事实上，自 1957 年创建以来，标普 500 的平均 CAPE 比率仅在 27 个月内超过 39。换句话说，标普 500（美国股市的基准）在过去 70 年中仅在约 3% 的时间里如此昂贵，而如此高的估值历史上与未来回报的惨淡相关。</p>
<p>下图显示了标普 500 在每月 CAPE 读数超过 39 后的不同时间段的平均回报。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>时间段</th>
<th>标普 500 的平均回报</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1 年</td>
<td>(4%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2 年</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3 年</td>
<td>(30%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：罗伯特·希勒。</p>
<p>上图所示的内容对未来的暗示是：如果标普 500 的回报与历史平均水平相符，该指数将在 2027 年 5 月下跌 4%。到 2028 年 5 月将下跌 20%。到 2029 年 5 月将暴跌 30%。</p>
<p>投资者现在应该抛售股票吗？不。过去的表现从来不能保证未来的结果。CAPE 比率是基于标普 500 在过去 10 年的平均通胀调整后盈利。而且，随着人工智能提高生产力，未来盈利可能会更快增长。在这种情况下，标普 500 可能会继续上涨，而其 CAPE 比率降至更合理的水平。</p>
<p>然而，虽然仅仅因为标普 500 的 CAPE 比率接近历史范围的上限而退出股市并不明智，但同样愚蠢的是忽视股市的高估值。在当前环境下，投资者应仅购买那些他们愿意在大幅下跌中持有的高信念股票，并且仅在股票以合理价格交易时购买。</p>
<p>我将以沃伦·巴菲特的建议结束。“作为投资者，你的目标应该简单地是在一个理性的价格下购买一个易于理解的业务的部分权益，其盈利在五年、十年和二十年后几乎肯定会大幅提高。”</p>

标普 500 指数

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做多标普 500 ETF - Direxion

标普 500 ETF - iShares

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - Direxion

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

2 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

<p>标普 500 指数因地缘政治紧张局势和油价上涨而出现警示信号，这给市场带来了不确定性。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，通胀压力可能导致加息，而历史上这通常会导致标普 500 指数下跌。该指数目前的 CAPE 比率为 39.6，表明其被高估，未来几年的潜在下跌幅度可能在 4% 到 30% 之间。建议投资者关注合理价格的高信念股票，而不是完全退出市场</p>

<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.16%) fell sharply in March when the Iran conflict pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. The index has already recovered its losses, but the rebound may have been premature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>标普 500</strong>（^GSPC 0.16%）在三月份大幅下跌，因为伊朗冲突使得油价首次超过每桶 100 美元。该指数已经恢复了损失，但反弹可能为时已晚。</p>
</div><p>Geopolitical tensions are still elevated, energy prices are still increasing, and no one knows when the situation will improve. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said as much during a recent press conference: &#34;The economic outlook remains highly uncertain and the conflict in the Middle East has added to this uncertainty.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>地缘政治紧张局势仍然高企，能源价格持续上涨，没人知道局势何时会改善。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在最近的新闻发布会上表示：“经济前景仍然高度不确定，中东的冲突加剧了这种不确定性。”</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Fed officials recently warned that inflationary pressure could lead to interest rate hikes, and the S&amp;P 500 just sounded an alarm last witnessed during the dot-com crash. Here's what investors need to know about the current market environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美联储官员最近警告称，通胀压力可能导致加息，而标普 500 则发出了自互联网泡沫崩溃以来首次出现的警报。以下是投资者需要了解的当前市场环境。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Njk1ODIvamVyb21lLXBvd2VsbC1jaGFpci1wb3dlbGwtYW5zd2Vycy1yZXBvcnRlcnMtcXVlc3Rpb25zLWF0LXRoZS1mb21jLXByZXNzLWNvbmZlcmVuY2UtNS5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F869582%2Fjerome-powell-chair-powell-answers-reporters-questions-at-the-fomc-press-conference-5.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses reporters at a press conference. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在新闻发布会上回答记者提问。图片来源：美联储官方照片。</p>
</div><h2>The Federal Reserve says inflationary pressure could lead to interest rate hikes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储表示通胀压力可能导致加息</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve's biannual financial stability report identifies and assesses risks to the U.S. financial system. The latest report was released in May 2026, and it ranked geopolitical tension and elevated oil prices as the most pressing concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的半年一次金融稳定报告识别并评估美国金融系统的风险。最新报告于 2026 年 5 月发布，认为地缘政治紧张局势和高油价是最紧迫的担忧。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Inflationary pressure from an energy shock could force central banks to tighten monetary policy even if economic growth were to weaken,&#34; warned the Fed Board of Governors. That could be particularly bad in the current environment because stocks already trade at very rich valuations by historical standards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储理事会警告称：“来自能源冲击的通胀压力可能迫使中央银行收紧货币政策，即使经济增长减弱。” 在当前环境下，这可能特别糟糕，因为股票的估值已经按历史标准来看非常高。</p>
</div><p>Under normal circumstances, the Fed would cut rates to stimulate a weak economy. But inflation accelerated substantially in March due to soaring energy prices caused by the Iran conflict, and inflation may continue climbing as the oil shock drives up manufacturing and transportation costs. In that scenario, the Fed may be forced to raise its benchmark rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常情况下，美联储会降息以刺激疲软的经济。但由于伊朗冲突导致能源价格飙升，通胀在三月份大幅加速，随着油价冲击推动制造和运输成本上升，通胀可能继续攀升。在这种情况下，美联储可能被迫提高基准利率。</p>
</div><p>That could sink the stock market in several ways. Higher interest rates would hurt corporate earnings, both directly by increasing interest expense and indirectly by reducing consumer demand. Higher interest rates would also make bonds more attractive, which could cause investors to sell stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能以多种方式打击股市。更高的利率将直接通过增加利息支出和间接通过减少消费者需求来损害企业盈利。更高的利率还会使债券更具吸引力，这可能导致投资者抛售股票。</p>
</div><p>Historical context is valuable here. The Federal Reserve's last rate-hike cycle started on March 17, 2022, and the S&amp;P 500 fell 17% in the next three months. In fact, the Fed has initiated four rate-hike cycles since 1999, and the S&amp;P 500 has always declined over the next three months, with an average drawdown of 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史背景在这里是有价值的。美联储上一次加息周期始于 2022 年 3 月，标普 500 在接下来的三个月中下跌了 17%。事实上，自 1999 年以来，美联储已经启动了四个加息周期，而标普 500 在接下来的三个月中总是下跌，平均回撤为 7%。</p>
</div><h2>The stock market sounds an alarm last seen during the dot-com crash</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股市发出自互联网泡沫崩溃以来首次出现的警报</h2>
</div><p>The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, sometimes called the Shiller PE, is a valuation metric used to evaluate entire stock market indexes. As of early May, the S&amp;P 500 had a CAPE ratio of 39.6. Excluding the last few months, the index has not traded at such a high valuation since the dot-com crash in September 2000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周期性调整后的市盈率（CAPE）有时被称为希勒市盈率，是用于评估整个股票市场指数的估值指标。截至 5 月初，标普 500 的 CAPE 比率为 39.6。除去过去几个月，该指数自 2000 年 9 月互联网泡沫崩溃以来未曾以如此高的估值交易。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the S&amp;P 500's average CAPE ratio has only exceeded 39 during 27 months since its creation in 1957. In other words, the S&amp;P 500 (a benchmark for the U.S. stock market) has only been this expensive about 3% of the time in the last 70 years, and such rich valuations have historically correlated with dismal future returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，自 1957 年创建以来，标普 500 的平均 CAPE 比率仅在 27 个月内超过 39。换句话说，标普 500（美国股市的基准）在过去 70 年中仅在约 3% 的时间里如此昂贵，而如此高的估值历史上与未来回报的惨淡相关。</p>
</div><p>The chart below shows the S&amp;P 500's average return over different time periods following a monthly CAPE reading above 39.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图显示了标普 500 在每月 CAPE 读数超过 39 后的不同时间段的平均回报。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Time Period</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500's Average Return</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1 year</td>
<td>(4%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2 years</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3 years</td>
<td>(30%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>时间段</th>
<th>标普 500 的平均回报</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1 年</td>
<td>(4%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2 年</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3 年</td>
<td>(30%)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Robert Shiller.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：罗伯特·希勒。</p>
</div><p>Here is what the chart above suggests about the future: If the S&amp;P 500's returns match the historical average, the index will fall 4% by May 2027. It will drop 20% by May 2028. And it will plummet 30% by May 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上图所示的内容对未来的暗示是：如果标普 500 的回报与历史平均水平相符，该指数将在 2027 年 5 月下跌 4%。到 2028 年 5 月将下跌 20%。到 2029 年 5 月将暴跌 30%。</p>
</div><p>Should investors sell their stocks right now? No. Past performance is never a guarantee of future results. The CAPE ratio is based on the S&amp;P 500's average inflation-adjusted earnings from the past 10 years. And earnings could grow faster in the future as artificial intelligence boosts productivity. In that case, the S&amp;P 500 may keep moving higher while its CAPE ratio falls to something more reasonable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者现在应该抛售股票吗？不。过去的表现从来不能保证未来的结果。CAPE 比率是基于标普 500 在过去 10 年的平均通胀调整后盈利。而且，随着人工智能提高生产力，未来盈利可能会更快增长。在这种情况下，标普 500 可能会继续上涨，而其 CAPE 比率降至更合理的水平。</p>
</div><p>However, while it doesn't make sense to exit the stock market simply because the S&amp;P 500's CAPE ratio is near the upper end of its historical range, it would be equally foolish to dismiss the stock market's rich valuation. In the current environment, investors should only buy high-conviction stocks they would be comfortable holding through a steep downturn, and only if shares trade at reasonable prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，虽然仅仅因为标普 500 的 CAPE 比率接近历史范围的上限而退出股市并不明智，但同样愚蠢的是忽视股市的高估值。在当前环境下，投资者应仅购买那些他们愿意在大幅下跌中持有的高信念股票，并且仅在股票以合理价格交易时购买。</p>
</div><p>I'll end with advice from Warren Buffett. &#34;Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, 10, and 20 years from now.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我将以沃伦·巴菲特的建议结束。“作为投资者，你的目标应该简单地是在一个理性的价格下购买一个易于理解的业务的部分权益，其盈利在五年、十年和二十年后几乎肯定会大幅提高。”</p>
</div>

The Stock Market Sounds an Alarm as Investors Get a Warning From the Federal Reserve. History Says This Will Happen Next.

- S&P 500 指数因伊朗冲突而大幅下跌，油价突破 100 美元。  
- 美联储警告因通胀压力可能加息，且股市估值偏高。  
- 投资者应选择高信心股票，避免市场高估。

股市发出警报，投资者收到美联储的警告。历史告诉我们接下来会发生什么