<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-jewellery-at-a-store.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-jewellery-at-a-store.png"/></p>
<p>印度黄金价格在周三飙升，此前政府提高了对贵金属的进口关税。</p>
<p>中央政府将黄金、白银及其他贵金属的进口关税从 6% 提高至 15%。</p>
<p>这一新结构自 5 月 13 日起生效，包括 10% 的基本关税和 5% 的农业基础设施和发展税（AIDC）。</p>
<h2>市场即时反应</h2>
<p>截至撰写时，印度多商品交易所上最活跃的黄金合约为每 10 克 162,831 印度卢比，比前一个交易日上涨近 6%。</p>
<p>今天早上，该合约上涨了近 9,000 印度卢比。</p>
<p>MCX 上的白银合约为每公斤 295,746 印度卢比，比前一个交易日上涨 6%。该合约在当天早些时候曾上涨至每公斤 301,429 印度卢比。</p>
<p>在孟买现货市场，99.9% 纯度的黄金开盘价为每 10 克 160,411 印度卢比，较周二收盘价 151,954 印度卢比大幅上涨。根据印度黄金珠宝协会（IBJA）的数据。</p>
<p>与此同时，99.9% 纯度的白银开盘价为每公斤 286,850 印度卢比，而周二的收盘价为 267,820 印度卢比。</p>
<p>总体需求预计将下降近 10%，其中珠宝业务可能面临 5% 至 7% 的下降，印度黄金珠宝协会（IBJA）国家秘书 Surendra Mehta 在 Moneycontrol 的报道中表示。</p>
<h2>政府的理由及需求影响</h2>
<p>在总理纳伦德拉·莫迪呼吁节约两天后，中央政府采取行动以缓解外汇储备压力并限制进口。</p>
<p>这一举措旨在应对不断上升的进口账单和与伊朗战争相关的压力。</p>
<p>“莫迪总理呼吁节约能源和避免黄金消费更多是一种激进的预防性干预，希望印度能够节省美元以便在成本持续上升的情况下进口更多原油，” 全球经纪公司 Just2Trade 的高级经济学家 Iván Marchena 告诉_Invezz_。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>因为印度超过 90% 的黄金以数十亿美元的成本进口，更多的美元流出国家而未能支持国内生产力。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>IBJA 的 Mehta 表示，政府的决定可能导致走私增加，他指出：“非法进口是可能的，这将帮助不正当的商人。”</p>
<p>他还指出，市场上黄金购买的折扣将持续存在。</p>
<p>根据商品专家的说法，进口关税的增加预计将提高黄金的到岸成本。</p>
<p>这正值黄金占印度总进口的 9%。</p>
<p>虽然这些进口限制可能会提升卢比和外汇储备，但民众可能会转向以珠宝作为抵押的黄金贷款，以应对通货膨胀压力。</p>
<h2>定价机制及未来展望</h2>
<p>Bonanza 的高级商品研究分析师 Nirpendra Yadav 表示，进口关税的上升将对 MCX 上的黄金和白银价格产生直接影响。</p>
<p>Yadav 补充说，MCX 价格通常会大幅上涨，因为进口的黄金变得更贵，国内价格开始以更高的溢价交易于国际 COMEX/LBMA 价格之上，MCX 上的期货合约迅速调整以反映更高的进口成本。</p>
<p>根据 Yadav 的说法，关税的增加可能会推动 MCX 黄金价格上涨，即使 Comex 黄金保持稳定。</p>
<p>他解释说，MCX 的定价公式大致计算为：国际价格 + USD/INR + 进口关税 + 税费 + 溢价。</p>
<p>因此，仅关税的增加就有可能提高 MCX 价格，即使 COMEX 黄金价格保持稳定。</p>
<p>根据 Yadav 的说法，短期内关税的增加可能会导致强劲的国内溢价、短期回补反弹，以及 MCX 与 COMEX 之间更大的套利差距。</p>
<p>然而，价格的上涨也带来了获利回吐和需求减少的风险。珠宝商可能会减少购买，导致实物溢价随后下降。</p>
<p>在中期内，较高的关税预计将减少官方黄金进口，这将增强卢比并改善经常账户赤字。然而，珠宝需求的减缓可能会导致走私活动的增加。</p>
<p>根据世界黄金协会的数据，黄金进口关税每增加 1%，消费者黄金需求将减少约 6.4 吨。</p>
<p>印度黄金关税上调引发 6% 飙升，增加需求与走私担忧的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

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<p>印度黄金价格在政府将黄金和白银的进口关税从 6% 提高至 15% 后，飙升近 6%，该政策自 5 月 13 日起生效。新的结构包括 10% 的基本关税和 5% 的农业基础设施和发展税。印度多商品交易所上最活跃的黄金合约达到了每 10 克 162,831 印度卢比。专家预测整体需求将下降 10%，并对因成本上升而导致的走私增加表示担忧。此举旨在缓解外汇储备的压力，以应对不断上升的进口账单</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-jewellery-at-a-store.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-jewellery-at-a-store.png"/></p>
<p>Indian gold prices surged on Wednesday after the government raised import duty on the precious metal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度黄金价格在周三飙升，此前政府提高了对贵金属的进口关税。</p>
</div><p>The Centre increased the import duties on gold, silver, and other precious metals, raising the total duty from 6% to 15%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央政府将黄金、白银及其他贵金属的进口关税从 6% 提高至 15%。</p>
</div><p>This new structure, effective from May 13, is composed of a 10% basic customs duty and a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一新结构自 5 月 13 日起生效，包括 10% 的基本关税和 5% 的农业基础设施和发展税（AIDC）。</p>
</div><h2>Immediate market reaction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场即时反应</h2>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the most-active gold contract on India’s Multi-Commodity Exchange was at INR 162,831 per 10 grams, up nearly 6% from the previous close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰写时，印度多商品交易所上最活跃的黄金合约为每 10 克 162,831 印度卢比，比前一个交易日上涨近 6%。</p>
</div><p>This morning, the contract had edged up nearly INR 9,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天早上，该合约上涨了近 9,000 印度卢比。</p>
</div><p>The silver contract on MCX was at INR 295,746 per 1 kg, up 6% from the previous close. The contract had risen to INR 301,429 per kg earlier in the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MCX 上的白银合约为每公斤 295,746 印度卢比，比前一个交易日上涨 6%。该合约在当天早些时候曾上涨至每公斤 301,429 印度卢比。</p>
</div><p>In Mumbai’s spot market, gold with a 99.9% purity opened at INR 160,411 per 10 grams, a whopping jump from INR 151,954 per 10 grams from Tuesday’s close, according to IBJA’s data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在孟买现货市场，99.9% 纯度的黄金开盘价为每 10 克 160,411 印度卢比，较周二收盘价 151,954 印度卢比大幅上涨。根据印度黄金珠宝协会（IBJA）的数据。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, silver with a 99.9% purity opened at INR 286,850 per kg compared to Tuesday’s close of INR 267,820 per kg.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，99.9% 纯度的白银开盘价为每公斤 286,850 印度卢比，而周二的收盘价为 267,820 印度卢比。</p>
</div><p>Overall demand is expected to drop by almost 10%, with the jewellery business alone potentially seeing a 5–7% decline, Surendra Mehta, national secretary of the Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), was quoted as saying in a Moneycontrol report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体需求预计将下降近 10%，其中珠宝业务可能面临 5% 至 7% 的下降，印度黄金珠宝协会（IBJA）国家秘书 Surendra Mehta 在 Moneycontrol 的报道中表示。</p>
</div><h2>Government rationale and demand impact</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>政府的理由及需求影响</h2>
</div><p>Two days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged austerity, the Centre took action to alleviate strain on foreign exchange reserves and restrict imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在总理纳伦德拉·莫迪呼吁节约两天后，中央政府采取行动以缓解外汇储备压力并限制进口。</p>
</div><p>This move addresses the increasing import bill and pressures related to the Iran war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一举措旨在应对不断上升的进口账单和与伊朗战争相关的压力。</p>
</div><p>“Prime Minister Modi’s calls to conserve energy and avoid gold are more of a drastic precautionary intervention in the hope that India can conserve US dollars for the ability to import more crude oil as costs continue to rise,” Iván Marchena, senior economist at Just2Trade, a global brokerage company, told <em>Invezz</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“莫迪总理呼吁节约能源和避免黄金消费更多是一种激进的预防性干预，希望印度能够节省美元以便在成本持续上升的情况下进口更多原油，” 全球经纪公司 Just2Trade 的高级经济学家 Iván Marchena 告诉_Invezz_。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Because India imports over 90% of its gold at a cost of billions of dollars, more USD leaves the country without helping to support domestic productivity.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>因为印度超过 90% 的黄金以数十亿美元的成本进口，更多的美元流出国家而未能支持国内生产力。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>IBJA’s Mehta expressed concern that the government’s decision could lead to an increase in smuggling, stating, &#34;Illegal import is possible, which will help non-genuine businessmen.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IBJA 的 Mehta 表示，政府的决定可能导致走私增加，他指出：“非法进口是可能的，这将帮助不正当的商人。”</p>
</div><p>He also noted that higher discounts on gold purchases would persist in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还指出，市场上黄金购买的折扣将持续存在。</p>
</div><p>The increase in import duties is expected to raise the landed cost of bullion, according to commodity experts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据商品专家的说法，进口关税的增加预计将提高黄金的到岸成本。</p>
</div><p>This comes as gold constitutes 9% of India's total imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这正值黄金占印度总进口的 9%。</p>
</div><p>While these import curbs could potentially boost the rupee and forex reserves, the population might turn to gold loans against their jewellery as a way to manage inflationary pressures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这些进口限制可能会提升卢比和外汇储备，但民众可能会转向以珠宝作为抵押的黄金贷款，以应对通货膨胀压力。</p>
</div><h2>Pricing mechanics and future outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>定价机制及未来展望</h2>
</div><p>Nirpendra Yadav, senior commodity research analyst at Bonanza, stated that the rise in the import duty would have an immediate impact on gold and silver prices on the MCX.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Bonanza 的高级商品研究分析师 Nirpendra Yadav 表示，进口关税的上升将对 MCX 上的黄金和白银价格产生直接影响。</p>
</div><p>Yadav added that MCX prices usually rose sharply because imported bullion became costlier, domestic prices started trading at a bigger premium over international COMEX/LBMA prices, and futures contracts on MCX quickly adjusted to reflect the higher import cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Yadav 补充说，MCX 价格通常会大幅上涨，因为进口的黄金变得更贵，国内价格开始以更高的溢价交易于国际 COMEX/LBMA 价格之上，MCX 上的期货合约迅速调整以反映更高的进口成本。</p>
</div><p>According to Yadav, a customs duty increase could drive up MCX gold prices, even if Comex gold remains steady.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Yadav 的说法，关税的增加可能会推动 MCX 黄金价格上涨，即使 Comex 黄金保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>He explained that the MCX pricing formula is approximately calculated as: International Price + USD/INR + Import Duty + Taxes + Premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他解释说，MCX 的定价公式大致计算为：国际价格 + USD/INR + 进口关税 + 税费 + 溢价。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, an increase in customs duty alone has the potential to raise MCX prices, even with a stable COMEX gold price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，仅关税的增加就有可能提高 MCX 价格，即使 COMEX 黄金价格保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>According to Yadav, a short-term duty increase is likely to result in a strong domestic premium, a short-covering rally, and a wider arbitrage gap between MCX and COMEX.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Yadav 的说法，短期内关税的增加可能会导致强劲的国内溢价、短期回补反弹，以及 MCX 与 COMEX 之间更大的套利差距。</p>
</div><p>However, escalating prices also carry the risk of profit-taking and reduced demand. Jewellers might curb their buying, causing physical premiums to decrease later on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，价格的上涨也带来了获利回吐和需求减少的风险。珠宝商可能会减少购买，导致实物溢价随后下降。</p>
</div><p>Over the medium term, higher duties are expected to decrease official bullion imports, which would bolster the rupee and improve the current account deficit. Nevertheless, slowed jewellery demand could potentially lead to an increase in smuggling activities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在中期内，较高的关税预计将减少官方黄金进口，这将增强卢比并改善经常账户赤字。然而，珠宝需求的减缓可能会导致走私活动的增加。</p>
</div><p>A 1% increase in the import duty on gold leads to a reduction of about 6.4 tonnes in consumer gold demand, based on data from the World Gold Council.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据世界黄金协会的数据，黄金进口关税每增加 1%，消费者黄金需求将减少约 6.4 吨。</p>
</div><p>The post India gold duty hike sparks 6% surge, raises demand, smuggling fears appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度黄金关税上调引发 6% 飙升，增加需求与走私担忧的文章首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

India gold duty hike sparks 6% surge, raises demand, smuggling fears

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印度上调黄金关税引发价格上涨 6%，需求增加，同时走私担忧加剧