<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/Flags-of-Belgium-and-the-EU.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1536" height="1024" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/Flags-of-Belgium-and-the-EU.png"/></p>
<p>比利时在四月份的突然通货膨胀激增，受到能源冲击影响，波及更广泛的消费价格，促使 ING 经济学家警告可能出现一种危险模式，这种模式可能在欧洲蔓延。</p>
<p>ING 的高级经济学家 Philippe Ledent 警告称，这一激增使得整体通货膨胀从三月份的 1.65% 上升至 4%，有可能重新点燃 2022 年扰乱欧元区的广泛价格压力。</p>
<p>ING 经济学家警告称，比利时的通货膨胀冲击并非孤立事件，而是可能预示着欧元区重新出现价格压力。</p>
<h2>能源冲击与通货膨胀激增</h2>
<p>根据 ING 经济学的数据显示，比利时的通货膨胀从三月份的 1.65% 跃升至四月份的 4%。</p>
<p>这一上升是由剧烈的能源冲击引发的，欧元计价的油价同比上涨超过 10%——这是二十年来的最大增幅。</p>
<p>能源通货膨胀从一月份的-8% 转为四月份的 +12%，突显了冲击的严重性。</p>
<p>ING 比利时和卢森堡的高级经济学家 Philippe Ledent 表示，关注点不再仅限于能源。他指出，消费者价格中出现的溢出迹象使得这一论点变得越来越难以成立。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778683694.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1017" height="622" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778683694.png"/></p>
<p>来源：ING 研究</p>
<h2>消费价格的溢出效应</h2>
<p>比利时的消费者价格指数追踪 215 类商品和服务。</p>
<p>ING 的分析显示，通货膨胀超过 2% 的商品比例从年初的 39% 上升至四月份的 51%。</p>
<p>按年计算，通货膨胀超过 4% 的商品比例从 21% 增加到 27%。</p>
<p>最引人注目的是，与上个月相比，通货膨胀上升的商品比例。</p>
<p>这一比例历史平均为 43%，但在 2026 年初降至 27%，显示出正常化的迹象。</p>
<p>但在四月份，这一比例激增至 62%，这是在 2021-2022 年通货膨胀浪潮之外很少见的水平。</p>
<p>Ledent 警告称，这一指标之前曾导致整体通货膨胀，暗示着更广泛激增的风险。</p>
<h2>对欧洲的警告</h2>
<p>ING 经济学强调，如果比利时的通货膨胀模式持续并蔓延至欧元区，欧洲中央银行（ECB）将面临类似于 2022 年的困境。</p>
<p>当时，原本看似暂时的能源激增成为自 1970 年代以来最强的通货膨胀激增。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>如果四月份的模式持续，尤其是如果它蔓延至欧元区，欧洲央行从 2022 年得到的教训是明确的：要提前行动，否则将再次落后于形势。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>报告强调了滞涨的风险，即更高的利率未能遏制能源驱动的通货膨胀，但仍然压缩需求。</p>
<p>ING 警告称，中央银行必须跟踪这一冲击是否保持局限，或扩展为更广泛的通货膨胀浪潮。</p>
<h2>竞争力岌岌可危</h2>
<p>比利时的自动工资指数化系统加剧了通货膨胀冲击。</p>
<p>工资和许多福利直接与价格挂钩，这意味着四月份的激增将触发年初未预见的名义工资增长。</p>
<p>这可能会侵蚀竞争力，因为邻国的调整速度较慢。</p>
<p>比利时政府已提议对高收入和养老金的指数化进行上限，但工会和雇主则推动平滑调整的时机。</p>
<p>ING 经济学指出，辩论已加剧，企业警告突发的竞争力冲击，而工会则抵制削减购买力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778683795.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1003" height="602" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778683795.png"/></p>
<p>来源：ING 研究</p>
<h2>更广泛的欧洲影响</h2>
<p>ING 经济学强调，比利时的经历是对欧洲的警示信号。</p>
<p>如果能源冲击触发自动工资增长并在各类商品中引发更广泛的通货膨胀，欧元区可能面临重新出现的通货膨胀压力，正当政策制定者认为最坏的情况已经过去。</p>
<p>Ledent 总结道，这一冲击的时机尤其具有破坏性。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>价格冲击加剧了对大多数收入自动指数化的辩论，并提高了商业竞争力的风险。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>比利时四月份的通货膨胀激增，虽然由能源驱动，但现在波及更广泛的类别，清楚地提醒了欧洲对重新出现价格冲击的脆弱性。</p>
<p>ING 经济学和 Philippe Ledent 警告称，除非得到遏制，否则这一模式可能在欧元区蔓延，迫使欧洲央行再次面临艰难的政策斗争。</p>
<p>这篇文章的标题为《ING 警告比利时的通货膨胀冲击可能蔓延至欧洲》，首次发布于 Invezz。</p>

荷兰国际

<p>比利时的通货膨胀率在四月份飙升至 4%，而三月份为 1.65%，这主要是受到能源冲击的推动，ING 经济学部警告称，欧洲可能面临潜在的广泛通货膨胀。高级经济学家 Philippe Ledent 强调，这一激增可能会重新点燃类似于 2022 年所见的价格压力。通货膨胀超过 2% 的商品比例显著上升，表明影响范围超出了能源领域。如果这一趋势持续下去，欧洲中央银行可能面临与过去类似的挑战，风险包括比利时的滞涨和竞争力问题</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/Flags-of-Belgium-and-the-EU.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/Flags-of-Belgium-and-the-EU.png"/></p>
<p>Belgium’s sudden inflation spike in April, driven by an energy shock spilling into wider consumer prices, has prompted ING Economics to warn of a dangerous pattern that could spread across Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比利时在四月份的突然通货膨胀激增，受到能源冲击影响，波及更广泛的消费价格，促使 ING 经济学家警告可能出现一种危险模式，这种模式可能在欧洲蔓延。</p>
</div><p>ING’s Senior Economist Philippe Ledent cautioned that the surge, which lifted headline inflation to 4% from 1.65% in March, risks reigniting the kind of broad‑based price pressures that unsettled the eurozone in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 的高级经济学家 Philippe Ledent 警告称，这一激增使得整体通货膨胀从三月份的 1.65% 上升至 4%，有可能重新点燃 2022 年扰乱欧元区的广泛价格压力。</p>
</div><p>ING Economics cautioned that Belgium’s inflation shock is not an isolated event, but a potential harbinger of renewed price pressures across the eurozone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 经济学家警告称，比利时的通货膨胀冲击并非孤立事件，而是可能预示着欧元区重新出现价格压力。</p>
</div><h2>Energy shock and inflation surge</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>能源冲击与通货膨胀激增</h2>
</div><p>Belgium’s inflation jumped from 1.65% in March to 4% in April, according to ING Economics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 ING 经济学的数据显示，比利时的通货膨胀从三月份的 1.65% 跃升至四月份的 4%。</p>
</div><p>The rise was triggered by a violent energy shock, with oil prices in euro terms climbing more than 10% year‑on‑year — the sharpest increase in two decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一上升是由剧烈的能源冲击引发的，欧元计价的油价同比上涨超过 10%——这是二十年来的最大增幅。</p>
</div><p>Energy inflation swung from –8% in January to +12% in April, underscoring the severity of the shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源通货膨胀从一月份的-8% 转为四月份的 +12%，突显了冲击的严重性。</p>
</div><p>Philippe Ledent, Senior Economist for Belgium and Luxembourg at ING, said the concern is no longer limited to energy. “It is becoming harder to argue that this is just energy,” he noted, pointing to signs of spillover across consumer prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 比利时和卢森堡的高级经济学家 Philippe Ledent 表示，关注点不再仅限于能源。他指出，消费者价格中出现的溢出迹象使得这一论点变得越来越难以成立。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778683694.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778683694.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：ING 研究</p>
</div><h2>Spillover across consumer prices</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>消费价格的溢出效应</h2>
</div><p>Belgium’s consumer price index tracks 215 categories of goods and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比利时的消费者价格指数追踪 215 类商品和服务。</p>
</div><p>ING’s analysis shows that the share of items with inflation above 2% rose from 39% early this year to 51% in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 的分析显示，通货膨胀超过 2% 的商品比例从年初的 39% 上升至四月份的 51%。</p>
</div><p>On a yearly basis, the share of items running above 4% inflation increased from 21% to 27%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按年计算，通货膨胀超过 4% 的商品比例从 21% 增加到 27%。</p>
</div><p>Most striking was the share of items whose inflation rose compared with the previous month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最引人注目的是，与上个月相比，通货膨胀上升的商品比例。</p>
</div><p>Historically averaging 43%, this figure fell to 27% early in 2026, signaling normalisation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一比例历史平均为 43%，但在 2026 年初降至 27%，显示出正常化的迹象。</p>
</div><p>But in April it surged to 62%, a level rarely seen outside the 2021–2022 inflation wave.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在四月份，这一比例激增至 62%，这是在 2021-2022 年通货膨胀浪潮之外很少见的水平。</p>
</div><p>Ledent warned that this metric had previously led to headline inflation, suggesting risks of a broader surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ledent 警告称，这一指标之前曾导致整体通货膨胀，暗示着更广泛激增的风险。</p>
</div><h2>Warning for Europe</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对欧洲的警告</h2>
</div><p>ING Economics stressed that if Belgium’s inflation pattern persists and spreads across the euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) faces a dilemma similar to 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 经济学强调，如果比利时的通货膨胀模式持续并蔓延至欧元区，欧洲中央银行（ECB）将面临类似于 2022 年的困境。</p>
</div><p>Then, what appeared to be a temporary energy spike became the strongest inflation surge since the 1970s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当时，原本看似暂时的能源激增成为自 1970 年代以来最强的通货膨胀激增。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>If April’s pattern persists, and especially if it spreads across the euro area, the ECB’s lesson from 2022 is clear: move early, or risk falling behind the curve again.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>如果四月份的模式持续，尤其是如果它蔓延至欧元区，欧洲央行从 2022 年得到的教训是明确的：要提前行动，否则将再次落后于形势。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The report highlights the risk of stagflation, where higher rates fail to curb energy‑driven inflation but still squeeze demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告强调了滞涨的风险，即更高的利率未能遏制能源驱动的通货膨胀，但仍然压缩需求。</p>
</div><p>ING warned that central banks must track whether the shock remains contained or broadens into a wider inflation wave.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 警告称，中央银行必须跟踪这一冲击是否保持局限，或扩展为更广泛的通货膨胀浪潮。</p>
</div><h2>Competitiveness at stake</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>竞争力岌岌可危</h2>
</div><p>Belgium’s automatic wage indexation system amplifies inflation shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比利时的自动工资指数化系统加剧了通货膨胀冲击。</p>
</div><p>Wages and many benefits are directly linked to prices, meaning April’s surge will trigger nominal wage increases not anticipated at the start of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工资和许多福利直接与价格挂钩，这意味着四月份的激增将触发年初未预见的名义工资增长。</p>
</div><p>This risks eroding competitiveness, as neighboring countries adjust more slowly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能会侵蚀竞争力，因为邻国的调整速度较慢。</p>
</div><p>The Belgian government has proposed capping indexation for higher incomes and pensions, but unions and employers have pushed for smoothing the timing of adjustments instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比利时政府已提议对高收入和养老金的指数化进行上限，但工会和雇主则推动平滑调整的时机。</p>
</div><p>ING Economics noted that the debate has intensified, with businesses warning of abrupt competitiveness shocks and unions resisting cuts to purchasing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 经济学指出，辩论已加剧，企业警告突发的竞争力冲击，而工会则抵制削减购买力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778683795.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/image-1778683795.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ING Research</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：ING 研究</p>
</div><h2>Broader European implications</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更广泛的欧洲影响</h2>
</div><p>ING Economics emphasised that Belgium’s experience is a warning sign for Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 经济学强调，比利时的经历是对欧洲的警示信号。</p>
</div><p>If energy shocks trigger automatic wage increases and broader inflation across categories, the eurozone could face renewed inflationary pressures just as policymakers believed the worst was behind them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果能源冲击触发自动工资增长并在各类商品中引发更广泛的通货膨胀，欧元区可能面临重新出现的通货膨胀压力，正当政策制定者认为最坏的情况已经过去。</p>
</div><p>Ledent concluded that the timing of this shock is particularly damaging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ledent 总结道，这一冲击的时机尤其具有破坏性。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The price shock intensifies the debate over automatic indexation for most incomes, and raises the stakes for business competitiveness.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>价格冲击加剧了对大多数收入自动指数化的辩论，并提高了商业竞争力的风险。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Belgium’s April inflation surge, driven by energy but now spilling into broader categories, is a stark reminder of Europe’s vulnerability to renewed price shocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比利时四月份的通货膨胀激增，虽然由能源驱动，但现在波及更广泛的类别，清楚地提醒了欧洲对重新出现价格冲击的脆弱性。</p>
</div><p>ING Economics and Philippe Ledent warn that, unless contained, the pattern could spread across the eurozone, forcing the ECB into another difficult policy battle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 经济学和 Philippe Ledent 警告称，除非得到遏制，否则这一模式可能在欧元区蔓延，迫使欧洲央行再次面临艰难的政策斗争。</p>
</div><p>The post ING warns Belgium’s inflation shock could spread across Europe appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章的标题为《ING 警告比利时的通货膨胀冲击可能蔓延至欧洲》，首次发布于 Invezz。</p>
</div>

荷兰国际集团警告称，比利时的通胀冲击可能会扩散到整个欧洲