<p>作者：贾伊·凯迪亚</p>
<p>债券市场不会等待中央银行来应对通货膨胀</p>
<p>新的美联储主席凯文·沃什必须对美国的利率和通货膨胀做出果断决策，否则债券市场将为他做出决定。</p>
<p>年化三个月通货膨胀率为 7.1%</p>
<p>美国人对生活成本感到不满。最近的一项调查显示，69% 的美国人对特朗普总统处理通货膨胀的方式表示不满——这是他在任何经济问题上的最低评分。随着美国中期选举的临近，这一数字具有真实的政治分量。家庭们已经经历了多年的高于目标的通货膨胀，可能会在投票时带着对可负担性的抱怨。</p>
<p>四月份的消费者价格指数发布显示，这些可负担性问题只会变得更糟。年同比的头条数字为 3.8%——这是自 2023 年 5 月以来的最高水平，几乎是美联储 2% 目标的两倍。但年同比的衡量滞后；它将今天的动能与 12 个月前的价格变化混合在一起，模糊了通货膨胀是否正在加速。</p>
<p>一个更尖锐的衡量标准是年化三个月的通货膨胀率：最近一个季度的价格上涨速度，按全年规模化计算。在这个指标上，头条通货膨胀率为 7.1%——这是自 2022 年末疫情后激增的高峰以来的最高水平。剔除食品和能源的核心通货膨胀年化率为 3.2%，是美联储目标的 1.5 倍以上。这两个数字都与价格稳定不符。</p>
<p>直接驱动因素是伊朗战争。三月份汽油价格上涨了 21%——创下有记录以来的最大月度涨幅——四月份随着伊朗冲突加剧又上涨了 5%。但能源成本不会保持在一定范围内；它们会传播，因为它们是许多商品和服务的关键投入。</p>
<p>这就是经济学家所称的成本推动冲击：上涨的投入成本通过供应链传导，抬高中间材料成本和间接费用。生产成本的增加最终会转嫁给零售消费者。四月份的报告实时显示了这一点，核心数据加速至自 2024 年初以来的最高速度。供应冲击已经开始渗透到更广泛的价格趋势中。</p>
<p>到目前为止，今年美联储的反应是保持利率稳定。供应冲击对中央银行来说 notoriously 难以应对；如果美联储错误收紧，消费者可能会因为冲击而面临更少的产品，并因为美联储的原因获得更少的信贷。在这种情况下，美联储不作为的标准辩护（“看透” 供应冲击）引用了双重任务：供应冲击对通货膨胀和就业都造成痛苦，使中央银行没有明确的方向信号。</p>
<p>阅读：凯文·沃什作为美联储主席将面临的五个考验</p>
<p>但通常有许多冲击同时影响经济。风险的平衡是否向通货膨胀或就业倾斜，只有通过查看数据才能回答。四月份的失业率保持在 4.3%。就业没有以与价格上涨相称的任何指标下降。根据美联储自己的标准，风险的平衡明显倾向于通货膨胀。</p>
<p>伊朗战争是五年来第四个重大供应冲击。每次，美联储都选择了相同的姿态：评估；犹豫，延迟。疫情后通货膨胀被著名地称为 “暂时的”。乌克兰战争的能源飙升被视为暂时的。2025 年因关税引发的价格压力促使美联储持续发出降息信号，即使通货膨胀数据反对这种做法。</p>
<p>没有人能预测当前冲突如何演变或能源冲击会持续多久。但这正是一个中央银行保留任意忽视经济数据权利的危险；每一个新的数据都成为延迟的另一个理由，累积的成本是价格水平显著高于在更有纪律的框架下的水平。</p>
<p>利率应该在哪里的最佳客观标准是政策规则。常用的货币政策规则，如泰勒规则，建议基于头条通货膨胀率设定超过 5% 的联邦基金利率目标。目前的目标在 3.5% 到 3.75% 之间。即使是保守的核心 CPI 通货膨胀读数也对应于美联储当前目标区间至少增加 25 个基点。</p>
<p>明确来说，收紧政策并不是没有成本的。更高的利率提高了家庭和企业的借贷成本，给信贷市场带来压力，并增加了联邦政府已经沉重的利息支出。这一切将因为美联储持续使用前瞻性指引来暗示条件最终会缓解而加剧——这一问题导致最近的 FOMC 会议上出现四次历史性异议。</p>
<p>美联储的不作为带来了更糟糕的成本：通货膨胀预期可能漂移并巩固这种高通货膨胀，使最终的修正更加剧烈。此外，正如最近的过去所示，债券市场不会等待美联储和新任主席凯文·沃什。如果私人参与者看到令人担忧的迹象，他们将要求对资产的更高补偿，从而提高收益率。价格和借贷成本可能会同时上升，使家庭面临两者的最糟糕局面。</p>
<p>美联储缓解美国人可负担性担忧的最佳方法不是在每次危机中扮演算命者并寄希望于最好的结果。它是停止将自由裁量权视为可行的货币政策策略，回归让数据以客观的方式指导利率决策。</p>
<p>贾伊·凯迪亚是卡托研究所货币与金融替代中心的研究员。</p>
<p>更多：通货膨胀可能会持续更长时间。你的退休计划并未为此做好准备。</p>
<p>另请阅读：伊朗战争可能是 3000 亿美元的冲击——推高抵押贷款利率并压缩工资</p>
<p>——贾伊·凯迪亚</p>
<p>本内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>05-13-26 1658ET</p>

MMKT

黄金 ETF - iShares

黄金矿 ETF - Sprott

<p>四月份的通胀率飙升，三个月年化率达到 7.1%，这促使新任美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）呼吁采取果断行动。消费者价格指数显示同比增长 3.8%，显著高于美联储 2% 的目标。由于伊朗战争推动能源成本上涨，这一通胀激增的情况愈发明显。美联储维持利率稳定，但经济学家警告称，不作为可能导致通胀预期根深蒂固。货币政策规则建议联邦基金利率目标应高于 5%，这表明需要加息以有效应对不断上升的通胀</p>

<p>By Jai Kedia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：贾伊·凯迪亚</p>
</div><p>Bond markets won't wait for the central bank to combat inflation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>债券市场不会等待中央银行来应对通货膨胀</p>
</div><p>New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh must be decisive about U.S. interest rates and inflation - or the bond market will decide for him.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新的美联储主席凯文·沃什必须对美国的利率和通货膨胀做出果断决策，否则债券市场将为他做出决定。</p>
</div><p>The annualized three-month inflation rate is running at 7.1%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年化三个月通货膨胀率为 7.1%</p>
</div><p>Americans are unhappy with their cost of living. A recent survey found that 69% of Americans disapprove of how President Donald Trump has handled inflation - his worst rating on any economic issue. With U.S. midterm elections approaching, that number carries real political weight. Households have lived through above-target inflation for years now and will likely bring affordability grievances with them to the voting booth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国人对生活成本感到不满。最近的一项调查显示，69% 的美国人对特朗普总统处理通货膨胀的方式表示不满——这是他在任何经济问题上的最低评分。随着美国中期选举的临近，这一数字具有真实的政治分量。家庭们已经经历了多年的高于目标的通货膨胀，可能会在投票时带着对可负担性的抱怨。</p>
</div><p>April's Consumer Price Index release shows that these affordability concerns are only getting worse. The headline year-over-year figure came in at 3.8% - the highest since May 2023 and nearly double the Federal Reserve's 2% target. But year-over-year measures lag; they blend today's momentum with price changes from 12 months ago, obscuring whether inflation is accelerating right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四月份的消费者价格指数发布显示，这些可负担性问题只会变得更糟。年同比的头条数字为 3.8%——这是自 2023 年 5 月以来的最高水平，几乎是美联储 2% 目标的两倍。但年同比的衡量滞后；它将今天的动能与 12 个月前的价格变化混合在一起，模糊了通货膨胀是否正在加速。</p>
</div><p>A sharper gauge is the annualized three-month rate: the pace of price increases over the most recent quarter, scaled to a full year. On that measure, headline inflation is running at 7.1% - the highest since the peak of the post-pandemic surge in late 2022. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is 3.2% annualized, more than one-and-a-half times the Fed's target. Neither figure is consistent with price stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个更尖锐的衡量标准是年化三个月的通货膨胀率：最近一个季度的价格上涨速度，按全年规模化计算。在这个指标上，头条通货膨胀率为 7.1%——这是自 2022 年末疫情后激增的高峰以来的最高水平。剔除食品和能源的核心通货膨胀年化率为 3.2%，是美联储目标的 1.5 倍以上。这两个数字都与价格稳定不符。</p>
</div><p>The immediate driver is the Iran war. Gasoline posted a 21% surge in March - the largest monthly gain on record - and rose another 5% in April as the Iran conflict deepened. But energy costs don't stay contained; they propagate because they are a key input for many goods and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>直接驱动因素是伊朗战争。三月份汽油价格上涨了 21%——创下有记录以来的最大月度涨幅——四月份随着伊朗冲突加剧又上涨了 5%。但能源成本不会保持在一定范围内；它们会传播，因为它们是许多商品和服务的关键投入。</p>
</div><p>This is what economists call a cost-push shock: Rising input costs work through the supply chain, lifting intermediary material costs and overheads. Increased costs of production are eventually passed through to consumers at retail. April's report made this visible in real time, with the core reading accelerating to its highest pace since early 2024. The supply shock has already started to bleed into broader price trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是经济学家所称的成本推动冲击：上涨的投入成本通过供应链传导，抬高中间材料成本和间接费用。生产成本的增加最终会转嫁给零售消费者。四月份的报告实时显示了这一点，核心数据加速至自 2024 年初以来的最高速度。供应冲击已经开始渗透到更广泛的价格趋势中。</p>
</div><p>So far this year, the Federal Reserve's response has been keeping rates steady. Supply shocks are notoriously hard for a central bank; if the Fed tightens incorrectly consumers could end up with fewer products because of the shock and less credit because of the Fed. The standard defense of Fed inaction (&#34;seeing-through&#34; supply shocks) in such situations invokes the dual mandate: Supply shocks inflict pain on both inflation and employment, leaving the central bank without a clean directional signal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，今年美联储的反应是保持利率稳定。供应冲击对中央银行来说 notoriously 难以应对；如果美联储错误收紧，消费者可能会因为冲击而面临更少的产品，并因为美联储的原因获得更少的信贷。在这种情况下，美联储不作为的标准辩护（“看透” 供应冲击）引用了双重任务：供应冲击对通货膨胀和就业都造成痛苦，使中央银行没有明确的方向信号。</p>
</div><p>Read: 5 tests Kevin Warsh will face as Fed chair</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：凯文·沃什作为美联储主席将面临的五个考验</p>
</div><p>But there are often many shocks affecting the economy at once. Whether the balance of risks shifts toward inflation or employment can only be answered by looking at the data. April's unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Employment did not fall in any measure commensurate with the price increases. The balance of risks, on the Fed's own terms, tilts decisively toward inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但通常有许多冲击同时影响经济。风险的平衡是否向通货膨胀或就业倾斜，只有通过查看数据才能回答。四月份的失业率保持在 4.3%。就业没有以与价格上涨相称的任何指标下降。根据美联储自己的标准，风险的平衡明显倾向于通货膨胀。</p>
</div><p>The Iran war is the fourth significant supply shock in five years. Each time, the Fed chose the same posture: assess; equivocate, delay. Post-pandemic inflation was famously called &#34;transitory.&#34; The Ukraine war's energy spike was treated as temporary. The tariff-driven price pressures of 2025 prompted the Fed to keep signaling rate cuts, even as inflation data argued against them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争是五年来第四个重大供应冲击。每次，美联储都选择了相同的姿态：评估；犹豫，延迟。疫情后通货膨胀被著名地称为 “暂时的”。乌克兰战争的能源飙升被视为暂时的。2025 年因关税引发的价格压力促使美联储持续发出降息信号，即使通货膨胀数据反对这种做法。</p>
</div><p>No one can predict how the current conflict evolves or how persistent the energy shock proves. But that is precisely the danger of a central bank that reserves the right to discretionarily ignore economic data; each new one becomes another reason to delay, and the accumulated cost is a price level substantially above where it would have been under a more disciplined framework.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有人能预测当前冲突如何演变或能源冲击会持续多久。但这正是一个中央银行保留任意忽视经济数据权利的危险；每一个新的数据都成为延迟的另一个理由，累积的成本是价格水平显著高于在更有纪律的框架下的水平。</p>
</div><p>The best objective standard for where rates should be is a policy rule. Commonly used monetary policy rules such as the Taylor rule would advocate a federal funds rate target over 5% based on headline inflation. The current target is between 3.5% and 3.75%. Even the conservative core CPI inflation reading would correspond to at least a 25-basis-point increase to the Fed's current target range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率应该在哪里的最佳客观标准是政策规则。常用的货币政策规则，如泰勒规则，建议基于头条通货膨胀率设定超过 5% 的联邦基金利率目标。目前的目标在 3.5% 到 3.75% 之间。即使是保守的核心 CPI 通货膨胀读数也对应于美联储当前目标区间至少增加 25 个基点。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, tightening is not costless. Higher rates raise borrowing costs for households and businesses, strain credit markets and increase the federal government's already burdensome interest expenses. This will all be compounded because the Fed has consistently used forward guidance to signal that conditions will eventually ease - an issue that led to four historic dissents at the most recent FOMC meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明确来说，收紧政策并不是没有成本的。更高的利率提高了家庭和企业的借贷成本，给信贷市场带来压力，并增加了联邦政府已经沉重的利息支出。这一切将因为美联储持续使用前瞻性指引来暗示条件最终会缓解而加剧——这一问题导致最近的 FOMC 会议上出现四次历史性异议。</p>
</div><p>Fed inaction carries far worse costs: Inflation expectations can drift and entrench this high inflation, making the eventual correction sharper. Moreover, as the recent past has shown, bond markets won't wait for the Fed and new Chair Kevin Warsh. If private actors see worrying signs they will demand higher compensation on assets, raising yields. Both prices and borrowing costs can rise together, leaving households with the worst of both worlds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的不作为带来了更糟糕的成本：通货膨胀预期可能漂移并巩固这种高通货膨胀，使最终的修正更加剧烈。此外，正如最近的过去所示，债券市场不会等待美联储和新任主席凯文·沃什。如果私人参与者看到令人担忧的迹象，他们将要求对资产的更高补偿，从而提高收益率。价格和借贷成本可能会同时上升，使家庭面临两者的最糟糕局面。</p>
</div><p>The best way for the Fed to ease Americans' affordability concerns is not to play fortune teller with each crisis and hope for the best. It is to stop treating discretion as a viable monetary policy strategy and return to letting data guide rate decisions in an objective manner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储缓解美国人可负担性担忧的最佳方法不是在每次危机中扮演算命者并寄希望于最好的结果。它是停止将自由裁量权视为可行的货币政策策略，回归让数据以客观的方式指导利率决策。</p>
</div><p>Jai Kedia is a research fellow at the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贾伊·凯迪亚是卡托研究所货币与金融替代中心的研究员。</p>
</div><p>More: Inflation will likely be higher for longer. Your retirement plan isn't built for that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多：通货膨胀可能会持续更长时间。你的退休计划并未为此做好准备。</p>
</div><p>Also read: The Iran war could be a $300 billion shock - driving up mortgage rates and squeezing wages</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：伊朗战争可能是 3000 亿美元的冲击——推高抵押贷款利率并压缩工资</p>
</div><p>-Jai Kedia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——贾伊·凯迪亚</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>05-13-26 1658ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-13-26 1658ET</p>
</div>

April's inflation spike leaves Warsh and the Fed zero excuses not to raise rates

- 美联储需迅速应对通货膨胀，债券市场将做出反应。  
- 年化三个月通货膨胀率达 7.1%，消费者对生活成本不满。  
- 伊朗战争推高能源价格，加剧通胀风险，政策需回归数据导向。

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四月份的通胀激增使得沃什和美联储没有任何理由不提高利率