<p>瑞银和摩根士丹利对中国股票持乐观态度，指出盈利复苏、人工智能势头以及中国对油价波动的低敏感性，上海综合指数攀升至 11 年高点。</p>
<p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>瑞银和摩根士丹利发布了对中国股票的积极展望，指出盈利复苏、流动性改善以及人工智能、新能源和先进制造主题的吸引力日益增强，来自两家银行的策略报告显示</li>
<li>上海综合指数已升至 4200 点以上，创下 11 年新高，而中国经济在第一季度同比增长 5%，超出预期</li>
<li>瑞银的股票策略师指出，中国的电力部门对石油和天然气的依赖仅约为 3%，而全球平均水平接近 20%，这为其提供了显著的结构性缓冲，抵御油价波动</li>
<li>瑞银表示，今年在北美和欧洲的路演显示主权财富基金、养老金和对冲基金的兴趣日益增长，许多投资者将中国资产视为全球风险投资组合中的避风港</li>
<li>摩根士丹利表示，中国的人工智能行业正从技术追赶转向商业价值实现，并预计到 2030 年，半导体自给自足率将从去年的 41% 上升至 86%</li>
<li>该银行估计，人工智能在未来十年内可能为中国的全要素生产率增加约 3 个百分点，并在 2035 年之前使 GDP 相较于没有人工智能的基线提高约 3.5 个百分点。</li>
</ul>
<p>一些世界上最大的外国金融机构对中国股票的看法变得更加积极，瑞银和摩根士丹利均发布了看涨的策略报告，指出盈利复苏、人工智能势头以及中国对油价波动的结构性隔离是新的投资理由。</p>
<p>这一转变发生在大陆市场展现出令人惊讶的韧性之际。尽管伊朗战争、全球油价高企以及持续的贸易和关税争端在其他市场造成不安，上海综合指数仍攀升至 4200 点以上，创下 11 年新高。中国经济在第一季度同比增长 5%，超出预期，人民币保持相对稳定。</p>
<p>瑞银中国股票策略师指出，该国对石油和天然气的有限依赖是一个关键的结构性优势。中国的电力部门仅约 3% 的能源来自石油和天然气，而全球平均水平接近 20%，煤炭和新能源占据了电力供应的主要部分。尽管中国仍是全球最大的石油进口国，孟表示，相较于其他主要经济体，中国对原油价格波动的敏感性远低，这在高企和波动的能源成本环境中为其提供了重要的缓冲。</p>
<p>宏观政策背景也吸引了长期资本。瑞银表示，今年在北美和欧洲的机构路演显示主权财富基金、养老金和对冲基金的兴趣显著上升。许多投资者现在将中国资产视为全球风险投资组合中的相对避风港，因其与其他市场的低相关性和中国政策环境的稳定性而受到吸引。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的最新报告表明了更具体的主题转变。外国机构的关注已从近年来广泛的中国复苏交易转向人工智能和技术行业的升级。该银行将中国的人工智能行业描述为进入一个新阶段，从技术追赶转向创造商业价值。它预计到 2030 年，国内半导体自给自足率将上升至 86%，大幅高于去年的 41%，降低人工智能部署成本并增强供应链韧性。在十年的时间里，该银行估计人工智能可能为全要素生产率增加约 3 个百分点，并在 2035 年之前使 GDP 相较于没有人工智能的情景提高约 3.5 个百分点。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>外国机构对中国股票的看涨转变对油市产生直接影响，因为中国仍是全球最大的原油进口国。瑞银观察到，中国的电力部门对石油和天然气的依赖仅约为 3%，远低于全球平均水平的近 20%，这在任何来自中国增长的油需求激增中构成了结构性约束。如果摩根士丹利预测的人工智能驱动的生产率提升在未来十年内显著提高中国 GDP，那么这种增长的组成部分将偏向于新能源和先进制造，而非能源密集型重工业，这可能限制中国经济扩张与油需求增长之间的传统相关性。如果主权财富和养老金基金对中国资产的流入持续，也将增强人民币，并可能逐步影响商品定价动态。</p>

上证指数

摩根士丹利

瑞银集团

<p>瑞银集团和摩根士丹利对中国股票发布了积极的展望，强调了盈利复苏、人工智能的势头以及对油价波动的低敏感性。上证指数已达到 11 年来的最高点，中国经济在第一季度同比增长 5%。瑞银指出，中国的电力行业仅依赖石油和天然气满足 3% 的需求，这为抵御油价波动提供了缓冲。摩根士丹利预计，中国的人工智能行业将实现显著增长，预计到 2035 年将为生产力增加 3 个百分点，并推动 GDP 增长 3.5 个百分点</p>

<p>UBS and Morgan Stanley have turned positive on Chinese equities, citing earnings recovery, AI momentum and China's low sensitivity to oil price swings, as the Shanghai Composite climbs to an 11-year high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银和摩根士丹利对中国股票持乐观态度，指出盈利复苏、人工智能势头以及中国对油价波动的低敏感性，上海综合指数攀升至 11 年高点。</p>
</div><p><strong>Summary:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>UBS and Morgan Stanley have issued positive outlooks on Chinese equities, citing earnings recovery, improving liquidity and the growing appeal of AI, new energy and advanced manufacturing themes, according to strategy notes from both banks</li>
<li>The Shanghai Composite has risen above 4,200 points, an 11-year high, while China's economy grew 5% year-on-year in Q1, beating forecasts</li>
<li>UBS equity strategists noted that China's power sector relies on oil and gas for only around 3% of its needs versus a global average of nearly 20%, giving it a significant structural buffer against oil price volatility</li>
<li>UBS said roadshows in North America and Europe this year revealed growing interest from sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and hedge funds, with many treating Chinese assets as a safe haven within global risk portfolios</li>
<li>Morgan Stanley said China's AI sector is transitioning from technological catch-up to commercial value realisation, and projected semiconductor self-sufficiency rising to 86% by 2030 from 41% last year</li>
<li>The bank estimated AI could add around 3 percentage points to China's total factor productivity over the next decade and lift GDP by approximately 3.5 points by 2035 relative to a no-AI baseline</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>瑞银和摩根士丹利发布了对中国股票的积极展望，指出盈利复苏、流动性改善以及人工智能、新能源和先进制造主题的吸引力日益增强，来自两家银行的策略报告显示</li>
<li>上海综合指数已升至 4200 点以上，创下 11 年新高，而中国经济在第一季度同比增长 5%，超出预期</li>
<li>瑞银的股票策略师指出，中国的电力部门对石油和天然气的依赖仅约为 3%，而全球平均水平接近 20%，这为其提供了显著的结构性缓冲，抵御油价波动</li>
<li>瑞银表示，今年在北美和欧洲的路演显示主权财富基金、养老金和对冲基金的兴趣日益增长，许多投资者将中国资产视为全球风险投资组合中的避风港</li>
<li>摩根士丹利表示，中国的人工智能行业正从技术追赶转向商业价值实现，并预计到 2030 年，半导体自给自足率将从去年的 41% 上升至 86%</li>
<li>该银行估计，人工智能在未来十年内可能为中国的全要素生产率增加约 3 个百分点，并在 2035 年之前使 GDP 相较于没有人工智能的基线提高约 3.5 个百分点。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Some of the world's largest foreign financial institutions are turning more constructive on Chinese equities, with UBS and Morgan Stanley both issuing bullish strategy notes that point to earnings recovery, AI momentum and China's structural insulation from oil price swings as the key drivers of a fresh investment case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些世界上最大的外国金融机构对中国股票的看法变得更加积极，瑞银和摩根士丹利均发布了看涨的策略报告，指出盈利复苏、人工智能势头以及中国对油价波动的结构性隔离是新的投资理由。</p>
</div><p>The shift comes as mainland markets demonstrate resilience that has surprised many observers. The Shanghai Composite has climbed above 4,200 points, reaching an 11-year high, even as the Iran war, elevated global oil prices and persistent trade and tariff disputes have unsettled markets elsewhere. China's economy expanded 5% year-on-year in the first quarter, beating expectations, and the renminbi has remained broadly stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一转变发生在大陆市场展现出令人惊讶的韧性之际。尽管伊朗战争、全球油价高企以及持续的贸易和关税争端在其他市场造成不安，上海综合指数仍攀升至 4200 点以上，创下 11 年新高。中国经济在第一季度同比增长 5%，超出预期，人民币保持相对稳定。</p>
</div><p>UBS China equity strategists identified the country's limited exposure to oil and gas as a key structural advantage. China's power sector draws only around 3% of its energy from oil and gas, compared with a global average of close to 20%, with coal and new energy making up the bulk of electricity supply. While China remains the world's largest oil importer, Meng argued that relative to other major economies, it is far less sensitive to crude price fluctuations, giving it a meaningful buffer in an environment of elevated and volatile energy costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银中国股票策略师指出，该国对石油和天然气的有限依赖是一个关键的结构性优势。中国的电力部门仅约 3% 的能源来自石油和天然气，而全球平均水平接近 20%，煤炭和新能源占据了电力供应的主要部分。尽管中国仍是全球最大的石油进口国，孟表示，相较于其他主要经济体，中国对原油价格波动的敏感性远低，这在高企和波动的能源成本环境中为其提供了重要的缓冲。</p>
</div><p>The macro policy backdrop is also drawing in long-term capital. UBS said this year's institutional roadshows in North America and Europe revealed a notable pickup in interest from sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and hedge funds. Many of those investors, he said, are now treating Chinese assets as a relative safe haven within global risk portfolios, attracted by their low correlation to other markets and the perceived stability of China's policy environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>宏观政策背景也吸引了长期资本。瑞银表示，今年在北美和欧洲的机构路演显示主权财富基金、养老金和对冲基金的兴趣显著上升。许多投资者现在将中国资产视为全球风险投资组合中的相对避风港，因其与其他市场的低相关性和中国政策环境的稳定性而受到吸引。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley's latest report signals a more specific thematic shift. Foreign institutional focus has moved on from the broad China recovery trade of recent years toward AI and technology sector upgrading. The bank characterised China's AI industry as entering a new phase, transitioning from catching up technologically to generating commercial value. It projected domestic semiconductor self-sufficiency rising to 86% by 2030, up sharply from 41% last year, reducing AI deployment costs and strengthening supply chain resilience. Over a ten-year horizon, the bank estimated AI could add around 3 percentage points to total factor productivity and lift GDP by approximately 3.5 points by 2035 relative to a scenario without AI adoption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的最新报告表明了更具体的主题转变。外国机构的关注已从近年来广泛的中国复苏交易转向人工智能和技术行业的升级。该银行将中国的人工智能行业描述为进入一个新阶段，从技术追赶转向创造商业价值。它预计到 2030 年，国内半导体自给自足率将上升至 86%，大幅高于去年的 41%，降低人工智能部署成本并增强供应链韧性。在十年的时间里，该银行估计人工智能可能为全要素生产率增加约 3 个百分点，并在 2035 年之前使 GDP 相较于没有人工智能的情景提高约 3.5 个百分点。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>The bullish foreign institutional pivot toward Chinese equities carries direct implications for oil markets, given that China remains the world's largest crude importer. UBS's observation that China's power sector relies on oil and gas for only around 3% of its needs, far below the global average of nearly 20%, is a structural constraint on the upside of any oil demand surge from Chinese growth. If AI-driven productivity gains lift Chinese GDP materially over the coming decade, as Morgan Stanley projects, the composition of that growth, weighted toward new energy and advanced manufacturing rather than energy-intensive heavy industry, may limit the traditional correlation between Chinese economic expansion and oil demand growth. Sovereign wealth and pension fund inflows into Chinese assets, if sustained, would also strengthen the renminbi and could incrementally affect commodity pricing dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外国机构对中国股票的看涨转变对油市产生直接影响，因为中国仍是全球最大的原油进口国。瑞银观察到，中国的电力部门对石油和天然气的依赖仅约为 3%，远低于全球平均水平的近 20%，这在任何来自中国增长的油需求激增中构成了结构性约束。如果摩根士丹利预测的人工智能驱动的生产率提升在未来十年内显著提高中国 GDP，那么这种增长的组成部分将偏向于新能源和先进制造，而非能源密集型重工业，这可能限制中国经济扩张与油需求增长之间的传统相关性。如果主权财富和养老金基金对中国资产的流入持续，也将增强人民币，并可能逐步影响商品定价动态。</p>
</div>

UBS and Morgan Stanley bullish on Chinese stocks amid AI and resilience story

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瑞银集团和摩根士丹利因人工智能和韧性故事对中国股票持乐观态度