<p>杰富瑞发布了一份研究报告，预计在温和的宏观经济复苏和低政策波动的背景下，中国大陆的银行业将在 2026 年实现稳定的盈利改善。该券商预测，净利差收窄的速度将放缓，支持净利息收入的增长恢复。预计覆盖银行的预拨备营业利润将在 2026 年全面恢复，盈利同比增长约 3.4%。</p>
<p>报告指出，资本流入将继续支持大陆银行业。特别是在新的会计准则下，保险公司有更强的激励来增加对高收益股票的配置，并将其分类到公允价值计入其他综合收益账户，预计将成为持续且稳定的边际买家。</p>
<p>该券商认为该行业具有选择性的吸引力，偏好那些资本流入持续且盈利可见性改善的股票。其首选股票是 H 股和 A 股的领军企业中国银行（BANK OF CHINA）（03988.HK）+0.090 (+1.724%) 空头头寸 280.11 百万；比例 23.636% 和宁波银行（BANK OF NINGBO）（002142.SZ）+0.060 (+0.187%)，均被评级为买入。</p>
<p>杰富瑞列出了大陆银行的评级和目标价：</p>
<p>公司及股票代码评级目标价</p>
<p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<p>工商银行（ICBC）（01398.HK）+0.050 (+0.714%) 空头头寸 189.40 百万；比例 17.367% 买入 HKD8.5</p>
<p>工商银行（ICBC）（601398.SH）+0.100 (+1.383%) 买入 RMB8.7</p>
<p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<p>农业银行（ABC）（01288.HK）+0.050 (+0.821%) 空头头寸 217.93 百万；比例 38.182% 持有 HKD6.6</p>
<p>农业银行（AGRICULTURAL BANK）（601288.SH）+0.140 (+2.102%) 持有 RMB7.4</p>
<p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<p>中国银行（BANK OF CHINA）（03988.HK）+0.090 (+1.724%) 空头头寸 280.11 百万；比例 23.636% 买入 HKD6.3</p>
<p>中国银行（BANK OF CHINA）（601988.SH）+0.090 (+1.573%) 买入 RMB7.4</p>
<p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<p>建设银行（CCB）（00939.HK）+0.060 (+0.676%) 空头头寸 354.21 百万；比例 25.421% 买入 HKD10.6</p>
<p>建设银行（CCB）（601939.SH）+0.120 (+1.249%) 买入 RMB11.9</p>
<p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<p>交通银行（BANKCOMM）（03328.HK）+0.080 (+1.096%) 空头头寸 61.80 百万；比例 32.119% 买入 HKD8.5</p>
<p>交通银行（BANKCOMM）（601328.SH）+0.060 (+0.898%) 买入 RMB8.5</p>
<p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<p>邮储银行（PSBC）（01658.HK）+0.010 (+0.196%) 空头头寸 12.68 百万；比例 24.517% 持有 HKD5.1</p>
<p>邮储银行（PSBC）（601658.SH）+0.030 (+0.600%) 持有 RMB5.3</p>
<p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<p>招商银行（CM BANK）（03968.HK）+0.180 (+0.381%) 空头头寸 134.21 百万；比例 22.126% 买入 HKD55.0</p>
<p>招商银行（CMB）（600036.SH）+0.070 (+0.185%) 买入 RMB51.0</p>
<p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<p>民生银行（MINSHENG BANK）（01988.HK）-0.060 (-1.657%) 空头头寸 20.26 百万；比例 21.483% 持有 HKD4.1</p>
<p>民生银行（MINSHENG BANK）（600016.SH）0.000 (0.000%) 持有 RMB4.2</p>
<p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<p>平安银行（PING AN BANK）（000001.SZ）-0.040 (-0.359%) 买入 RMB13.8</p>
<p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<p>宁波银行（BANK OF NINGBO）（002142.SZ）+0.060 (+0.187%) 买入 RMB42.1</p>
<p>（广告/用户）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026-05-13 16:25。）（A 股报价延迟至少 15 分钟。）</p>

宁波银行

中国银行

中国银行(ADR)

富国中证800银行ETF

中证银行ETF

华安中证银行ETF

华夏中证银行ETF

华宝中证银行ETF

<p>杰富瑞预计，受温和的宏观经济复苏和低政策波动的推动，2026 年中国大陆银行业的盈利将稳步改善。报告预测净利差收窄的速度将放缓，支持净利息收入的增长，预期拨备前营业利润将完全恢复。该券商看好中国银行和宁波银行，均给予买入评级，并强调由于资本流入和盈利可见性的改善，该行业具有选择性的吸引力。报告中还提供了各家银行的评级和目标价格</p>

<p>Jefferies issued a research report expecting mainland China's banking sector to deliver steady earnings improvement in 2026 amid a mild macroeconomic recovery and low policy volatility. The broker forecast that the pace of NIM narrowing will slow, supporting a return to growth in net interest income. It expects pre-provision operating profit of the covered banks to fully recover in 2026, with earnings rising approximately 3.4% YoY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杰富瑞发布了一份研究报告，预计在温和的宏观经济复苏和低政策波动的背景下，中国大陆的银行业将在 2026 年实现稳定的盈利改善。该券商预测，净利差收窄的速度将放缓，支持净利息收入的增长恢复。预计覆盖银行的预拨备营业利润将在 2026 年全面恢复，盈利同比增长约 3.4%。</p>
</div><p>The report noted that capital inflows will continue to support the mainland banking sector. In particular, under new accounting standards, insurance companies have stronger incentives to increase allocation to high-yield equities and classify them into FVOCI accounts, and are expected to become persistent and stable marginal buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出，资本流入将继续支持大陆银行业。特别是在新的会计准则下，保险公司有更强的激励来增加对高收益股票的配置，并将其分类到公允价值计入其他综合收益账户，预计将成为持续且稳定的边际买家。</p>
</div><p>The broker believes the sector offers selective attractiveness, favoring stocks with sustained capital inflows and improving earnings visibility. Its top picks are H-share and A-share leaders BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK) +0.090 (+1.724%)  Short selling $280.11M; Ratio 23.636%  and BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ) +0.060 (+0.187%)  , both rated Buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该券商认为该行业具有选择性的吸引力，偏好那些资本流入持续且盈利可见性改善的股票。其首选股票是 H 股和 A 股的领军企业中国银行（BANK OF CHINA）（03988.HK）+0.090 (+1.724%) 空头头寸 280.11 百万；比例 23.636% 和宁波银行（BANK OF NINGBO）（002142.SZ）+0.060 (+0.187%)，均被评级为买入。</p>
</div><p>Jefferies listed ratings and TP for mainland banks:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>杰富瑞列出了大陆银行的评级和目标价：</p>
</div><p>Company and Stock CodeRatingTP</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司及股票代码评级目标价</p>
</div><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
</div><p>ICBC (01398.HK) +0.050 (+0.714%)  Short selling $189.40M; Ratio 17.367%  BuyHKD8.5</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工商银行（ICBC）（01398.HK）+0.050 (+0.714%) 空头头寸 189.40 百万；比例 17.367% 买入 HKD8.5</p>
</div><p>ICBC (601398.SH) +0.100 (+1.383%)  BuyRMB8.7</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工商银行（ICBC）（601398.SH）+0.100 (+1.383%) 买入 RMB8.7</p>
</div><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
</div><p>ABC (01288.HK) +0.050 (+0.821%)  Short selling $217.93M; Ratio 38.182%  HoldHKD6.6</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>农业银行（ABC）（01288.HK）+0.050 (+0.821%) 空头头寸 217.93 百万；比例 38.182% 持有 HKD6.6</p>
</div><p>AGRICULTURAL BANK (601288.SH) +0.140 (+2.102%)  HoldRMB7.4</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>农业银行（AGRICULTURAL BANK）（601288.SH）+0.140 (+2.102%) 持有 RMB7.4</p>
</div><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
</div><p>BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK) +0.090 (+1.724%)  Short selling $280.11M; Ratio 23.636%  BuyHKD6.3</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国银行（BANK OF CHINA）（03988.HK）+0.090 (+1.724%) 空头头寸 280.11 百万；比例 23.636% 买入 HKD6.3</p>
</div><p>BANK OF CHINA (601988.SH) +0.090 (+1.573%)  BuyRMB7.4</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国银行（BANK OF CHINA）（601988.SH）+0.090 (+1.573%) 买入 RMB7.4</p>
</div><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
</div><p>CCB (00939.HK) +0.060 (+0.676%)  Short selling $354.21M; Ratio 25.421%  BuyHKD10.6</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>建设银行（CCB）（00939.HK）+0.060 (+0.676%) 空头头寸 354.21 百万；比例 25.421% 买入 HKD10.6</p>
</div><p>CCB (601939.SH) +0.120 (+1.249%)  BuyRMB11.9</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>建设银行（CCB）（601939.SH）+0.120 (+1.249%) 买入 RMB11.9</p>
</div><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
</div><p>BANKCOMM (03328.HK) +0.080 (+1.096%)  Short selling $61.80M; Ratio 32.119%  BuyHKD8.5</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交通银行（BANKCOMM）（03328.HK）+0.080 (+1.096%) 空头头寸 61.80 百万；比例 32.119% 买入 HKD8.5</p>
</div><p>BANKCOMM (601328.SH) +0.060 (+0.898%)  BuyRMB8.5</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交通银行（BANKCOMM）（601328.SH）+0.060 (+0.898%) 买入 RMB8.5</p>
</div><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
</div><p>PSBC (01658.HK) +0.010 (+0.196%)  Short selling $12.68M; Ratio 24.517%  HoldHKD5.1</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>邮储银行（PSBC）（01658.HK）+0.010 (+0.196%) 空头头寸 12.68 百万；比例 24.517% 持有 HKD5.1</p>
</div><p>PSBC (601658.SH) +0.030 (+0.600%)  HoldRMB5.3</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>邮储银行（PSBC）（601658.SH）+0.030 (+0.600%) 持有 RMB5.3</p>
</div><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
</div><p>CM BANK (03968.HK) +0.180 (+0.381%)  Short selling $134.21M; Ratio 22.126%  BuyHKD55.0</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>招商银行（CM BANK）（03968.HK）+0.180 (+0.381%) 空头头寸 134.21 百万；比例 22.126% 买入 HKD55.0</p>
</div><p>CMB (600036.SH) +0.070 (+0.185%)  BuyRMB51.0</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>招商银行（CMB）（600036.SH）+0.070 (+0.185%) 买入 RMB51.0</p>
</div><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
</div><p>MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK) -0.060 (-1.657%)  Short selling $20.26M; Ratio 21.483%  HoldHKD4.1</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>民生银行（MINSHENG BANK）（01988.HK）-0.060 (-1.657%) 空头头寸 20.26 百万；比例 21.483% 持有 HKD4.1</p>
</div><p>MINSHENG BANK (600016.SH) 0.000 (0.000%)  HoldRMB4.2</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>民生银行（MINSHENG BANK）（600016.SH）0.000 (0.000%) 持有 RMB4.2</p>
</div><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
</div><p>PING AN BANK (000001.SZ) -0.040 (-0.359%)  BuyRMB13.8</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平安银行（PING AN BANK）（000001.SZ）-0.040 (-0.359%) 买入 RMB13.8</p>
</div><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>------------------------------------------------------------------</p>
</div><p>BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ) +0.060 (+0.187%)  BuyRMB42.1</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>宁波银行（BANK OF NINGBO）（002142.SZ）+0.060 (+0.187%) 买入 RMB42.1</p>
</div><p>(ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-13 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（广告/用户）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026-05-13 16:25。）（A 股报价延迟至少 15 分钟。）</p>
</div>

Jefferies: Mainland Banks to See Steady Improvement This Year, Favors BANK OF CHINA  and BANK OF NINGBO

AASTOCKS News

Jefferies Financial

工商银行

农业银行

建设银行

交通银行

邮储银行

招商银行

民生银行

平安银行

中银香港

杰富瑞认为大陆银行今年将稳步改善，并偏好中国银行和宁波银行